Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 13th: Report - Dickey extended, trade just pending physicals

[pooleboy]

i realize this has become an afterthought but hutchinson and drabek could be back by July......

 

[rojac]

i realize this has become an afterthought but hutchinson and drabek could be back by July......

Just in time to be moved out in a deadline deal to add a bat.

 

[TootooTrain]

i realize this has become an afterthought but hutchinson and drabek could be back by July......

Drabek around the all-star break. Doubt we see Hutch back next year from the information we've been given.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Doing the math, the bench + starting line up should average 3.8-4.1 runs a games. Starting pitchers should average 5 2/3 inning a start, with a collective ERA of 3.79

 

[pooleboy]

Drabek around the all-star break. Doubt we see Hutch back next year from the information we've been given.

now i dont have a source, but i either read it on hf or on the toronto blue jays forum but someone said AA said both could be ready for July.

 

[GoHardSports]

Where does Syndergaard play when you have Morrow, Romero, Buehrle, Dickey and possibly Johnson long term? Its not as if Blue Jays don't have any pitching prospects left either for a back end rotation spot.

The idea was Sanchez and Syndergaard would eventually replace our aging veterans. Buehrle has 3 years left on his contract, i'm assuming Dickey would as well, and there's always the chance that Johnson goes to FA. Only Romero is locked up past those 3 years. Syndergaard and Sanchez could be ready in 2-3 years and would've been able to fill the voids in the rotation.

 

[Scoogs]

The idea was Sanchez and Syndergaard would eventually replace our aging veterans. Buehrle has 3 years left on his contract, i'm assuming Dickey would as well, and there's always the chance that Johnson goes to FA. Only Romero is locked up past those 3 years. Syndergaard and Sanchez could be ready in 2-3 years and would've been able to fill the voids in the rotation.

Don't discount the possibility of filling in those supposed "empty spots" in the next 3 years.

 

[GoHardSports]

Drabek around the all-star break. Doubt we see Hutch back next year from the information we've been given.

Pretty sure its the other way around?

 

[GoHardSports]

Don't discount the possibility of filling in those supposed "empty spots" in the next 3 years.

I'm not, just pointing out that its not as if Syndergaard, or Sanchez for that matter, would be blocked for an extended amount of time as the poster I quoted seems to think.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

It's clear that most people think he has trade value. If everyone thought he was a below average catcher then he wouldn't have any trade value.

I never said he didn't have trade value. Even below average catchers aren't that easy to find since there are plenty of horrible ones around the league. He can hit well enough for a catcher and is cheap/under control and thats valuable.

 

[TootooTrain]

Where does Syndergaard play when you have Morrow, Romero, Buehrle, Dickey and possibly Johnson long term? Its not as if Blue Jays don't have any pitching prospects left either for a back end rotation spot.

Syndergaard is still 2-3 years away from reaching the bigs. Dickey would only be guaranteed to be on our roster for 3 more years. Mix in the chance of injury and the fact that JJ may not even be on the roster in 2014. Alot of young pitchers start in the bullpen aswell even if their projected to be starters long term. If a player is good enough, space can always be found.

Pretty sure its the other way around?

I don't think so. Drabek was scheduled to have TJ surgery almost immediately in late July I believe. With Hutch they sort of danced around the issue to see if he could recover but eventually gave in, and he had the surgery around mid august.

 

[Epictetus]

The weird thing is that Thole looks eerily similar to Arencibia. Too bad we didn't still have Gomes. Could have been the first team in the Majors to play triplets! Hahaha.

Honestly, Thole has decent numbers. Last season wasn't good, but his OBP was very solid before that. Even with his poor season, his career OBP is .331% which is very solid for a backup. He's also a great option to throw in versus RH pitching. He's a career .275 hitter vs RH with an OBP% of .345%. Solid.

I won't be surprised if Thole ends up being the starting catcher, or at the very least plays more than just every fifth day catching Dickey.

He's not a bad player by any means, and I agree with your post.

someone told me his gf broke up with him and thats the reason for his slide, i honestly dont see that happening again, especially being #4-5 on the depth chart should relax him a bit.

Have you seen his girl friend? If that's true, I don't blame him

Actually, it all makes sense now.

 

[Natey]

Before anything else, I feel like a broken record on this: fielding % is an awful stat. It's built on errors, an even more awful stat. And it's even worse for catchers since a lot of catcher screw-ups won't be counted as errors (remember, passed balls don't get counted as errors). Moving on...

Fangraphs WAR - 1.3
baseball-reference WAR (which I'm trying not to use, but will include because i've got dWAR below) - 1.4
b-r dWAR - 0.9

So by those #s, Arencibia is barely worth more than the hypothetical random C you could sign out of AAA or pluck off the waiver wire.

More to the point, using Fangraphs WAR, Arencibia is 19th out of 25 catchers who had 350+ PAs in WAR, and if we break it down to WAR/PA (to try and exclude the idea that he was held back because he missed time compared to higher usage players) he only moves up 1 spot to 18th. His value is basically equal to John Buck, who will get nowhere near the praise that Arencibia does in some circles.

I'd present dWAR rankings, but b-r doesn't seem to do a whole lot of customization/drilling down.

Arencibia is a mediocre starter at best. And at worst his awful bat outside of his power doesn't make up for average-to-below-average D.

#1) "driving in runs" is a function of opportunity as much or more than it is a function of player skill. He drives in runs because he hits homers and because other Blue Jays players happen to be on base when he comes up to bat. He has no control over the latter.

#2) "prospect catcher that will likely be converted to a 1B" What? Where did that come from? There was talk that d'Arnaud would've had to play some 1B/DH to get into games when the Jays were overloaded with catchers, but at no point was it ever considered that he would have to be converted to another position. To assert otherwise is just patently false.

True but the fact is, JP hits very well with RISP. He's clutch.

.295 with a .333 OBP% and a .987 OPS.

Maybe we should try him behind guys who can get on base. Maybe something like the top-4 then Lind theb Lawrie-Bonifacio/Izturis-Areniciba-Ramus

 

[Eyedea]

Not to mention Brandon Morrow is a free agent in 2015 (assuming we pick up his option) and Ricky Romero in 2016 (assuming we pick up his option). We could very well roll with a completely revamped rotation in 3-4 years.

I really want Morrow to retire as a Jay though. That fastball/slider combo is just wicked.

 

[Ohio Jones]

True but the fact is, JP hits very well with RISP. He's clutch.

.295 with a .333 OBP% and a .987 OPS.

Maybe we should try him behind guys who can get on base. Maybe something like the top-4 then Lind theb Lawrie-Bonifacio/Izturis-Areniciba-Ramus

RISP has been categorically proven to be irrelevant over any significant sample size. Nobody is "clutch": it's an old-school myth that has been thoroughly debunked. If you can hit with runners on, you should be able to hit without runners on. Leaving that discussion aside, JP simply strikes out way to much to be put in a cleanup role. He's an 8/9 batter in this lineup, period.

 

[GoHardSports]

Wow the comments on MLB.com articles are hilarious.

"I wonder how the Canadian air will affect Dickey's knuckleball"

LMAO. 1) We play in a dome which will probably always be closed when Dickey is on the mound. 2) Is air different in Canada compared the states? Do I need a gas mask if I were to go to the states? Our Canadian air must just mess up everyone that comes to play in Toronto because gravity is x2.5 more potent here. Some people are just so idiotic....

 

[TootooTrain]

"I wonder how the Canadian air will affect Dickey's knuckleball"

Unless they're talking about a different kind of air. The type that sends you to space.

 

[captn]

Before anything else, I feel like a broken record on this: fielding % is an awful stat. It's built on errors, an even more awful stat. And it's even worse for catchers since a lot of catcher screw-ups won't be counted as errors (remember, passed balls don't get counted as errors). Moving on...

Fangraphs WAR - 1.3

You realize that was only around 2/3 of a season?

 

[GoHardSports]

You realize that was only around 2/3 of a season?

You realize that catchers don't play every day right?

 

[Destroyer100]

Could they have not gotten more for Syndergared and TDA then a 38 year old if they shopped them around to the rest of the league. I rest my case.

 

[Natey]

RISP has been categorically proven to be irrelevant over any significant sample size. Nobody is "clutch": it's an old-school myth that has been thoroughly debunked. If you can hit with runners on, you should be able to hit without runners on. Leaving that discussion aside, JP simply strikes out way to much to be put in a cleanup role. He's an 8/9 batter in this lineup, period.

What did I say? Bat him 8th. Did you even read my post.

And I call bullcrap. When I played ball, I was always better when the team really needed a hit. I was usually very unfocused when we blew a team out. The more intense a situation was - the better I was. I'm sure there's plenty of people like that.

Throughout his entire career, JP is a much better hitter with RISP. .264avg, .320+OBP% and .850+ OPS. Without RISP his OBP% is probably around .250, approximately a .200avg, with an OPS well under .600.

You may not believe in clutch. I do.

 

[captn]

You realize that catchers don't play every day right?

Do catchers break their hand every season?

 

[GoHardSports]

Could they have not gotten more for Syndergared and TDA then a 38 year old if they shopped them around to the rest of the league. I rest my case.

Something I, and some others have wondered as well. Maybe chip in Gose and Nolin and you could've gotten Price or Hernandez? Although we're unsure if AA looked around before talking with the Mets.

 

[GoHardSports]

Do catchers break their hand every season?

He wouldn't have played a full season regardless. You can maybe add 20 games worth of WAR on to that total.

 

[captn]

What did I say? Bat him 8th. Did you even read my post.

And I call bullcrap. When I played ball, I was always better when the team really needed a hit. I was usually very unfocused when we blew a team out. The more intense a situation was - the better I was. I'm sure there's plenty of people like that.

Throughout his entire career, JP is a much better hitter with RISP. .264avg, .320+OBP% and .850+ OPS. Without RISP his OBP% is probably around .250, approximately a .200avg, with an OPS well under .600.

You may not believe in clutch. I do.

Sorry, if you look at any player with a long career their RISP is at best very close to their batting avg. Derek Jeter known as Mr. Clutch has a lower avg with RISP than his batting avg.