Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 13th: Report - Dickey extended, trade just pending physicals

[pooleboy]

So basically this cancels out the prospect saving in the Reyes, Johnsson, etc trade. When you combine both trades, it looks more reasonable I guess.

yea

 

[91Kadri91*]

I did say that was selling him short


Which stats do you want to use? War? Dwar? Fielding %? The fact is he's solid in all of them when compared to other catchers yet some random stat nobody other then serious Sabremetric guys have heard of will be brought up as the end all of the discussion



I'm aware what it is, autocorrect isn't.

He had power, he drives runs in and he isn't nearly as bad defensively as he's been made out to be. Obviously he can be upgraded to but suggest a prospect catcher that will likely be converted to a 1B is the saviour over pathetic arencibia is Pejorative Slured

Alright, since clearly you're not going to prove he's average, I suppose I'll just prove (again) that he's below average.

There were 25 catchers last year with at least 350 plate appearances. Of those 25, here is how J.P. ranks in the following categories:

WAR- 19th
UZR- 14th
wRC+- 18th
wOBA- 18th
BB%- 24th
ISO- 7th
Catcher ERA (which isn't a great stat, but there aren't many good stats out there to gauge a catcher's defensive ability)- 86th out of 108.

He's above average in one area of the game; hitting for power. That's it. Everything else he's below average in.

He's below average offensively, and he's below average defensively. That's all there is to it.

 

[trellaine201]

Surr hope Dickey wants to play for us.

 

[rojac]

Well... Lawrie developed in the Jays system as a 3rd basemen. Casey Janssen has been our most reliable bullpen arm for a few seasons now. Ricky took a long time developing, and while he did struggle last year, I still think he can be a solid middle of the rotation starter.

Also maybe it shows Pittsburgh inability to develop players since Jose broke out with the Jays?

Lawrie was already an AAA player when acquired and Jose just needed some adjustments and that was at the major league level.

Casey and Ricky are not part of the starting line-up, but yeah, they've done okay.

Does anyone else think it's possible that AA has lost faith in the organization's ability to develop major league talents good enough to win?

 

[Woodman19]

Lawrie was already an AAA player when acquired and Jose just needed some adjustments and that was at the major league level.

Casey and Ricky are not part of the starting line-up, but yeah, they've done okay.

Does anyone else think it's possible that AA has lost faith in the organization's ability to develop major league talents good enough to win?

No, but I think its possible that people over AA's head told him to go out and do something like this.

 

[Anthrax442]

I am moving from the "Too many prospects" camp to the "just get him over here" camp.

We had a good draft last season and another one coming up. There's a window of opportunity of the next 3 years to really turn up the heat. Get er done!

 

[Eyedea]

If the rumored price is true, we just got bent over. Unless that unnamed prospect is Harvey, which is very unlikely.

Harvey isn't a prospect anymore.

And while I do agree that the trade does seem ugly, it does also show confidence and risk in AA and his scouts. Who knows, maybe the injuries suffered by TDA hinder his ability to play catcher? Or that the development of Syndergaard's secondary pitches might take too long?

Just looking at our prospects right now, Osuna and possibly Stroman could progress to be top 50 prospects after this season, Stroman being less likely because of his ban. But with arms like Osuna, Norris, Stroman, Smoral, and let us not forget Sanchez, wow we still got some impressive stuff down there.

Hopefully Jimenez bounces back, and Nessy continues to impress because right now the only thing lacking in our system is bats and position players. Would be nice if an Austin Wilson or Kris Bryant fall to us next draft eh?

 

[GoSensGo6172]

Anyone think it's still possible the NY Post article is WRONG?

 

[Gargyn]

well you never know I guess...maybe this year Syndergard blows out his arm or D'Arnaud blows out the other knee or starts having recurring back problems..its a huge, huge price to pay but clearly the Jays ownership and management are putting everything in to try to get a winning team this immediate year. That said, if they extend Dickey and do everything they can to extend Johnson, losing Syndergard won't hurt too much as they will have Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, Buehrle and Romero all locked up with Sanchez and Hutch coming up soon too. Positionally, the Jays are set at 3B, SS, DH, CA, 2B, RF, LF and CF for the next couple years too. Yeah we could improve at 2B, 1B and CF, but what team cant improve at a few positions. This team is not OLD, so its not like the Jays only have this year to win it all, with the core in place and a couple extensions, this team could be a powerhouse for many years, even with the loss of a blue chip catcher and stud young arm. i don't like the price, but I like the looks of the team this year and beyond this year still.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Anyone think it's still possible the NY Post article is WRONG?

I'm certainly hoping it is.

 

[Natey]

Anyone think it's still possible the NY Post article is WRONG?

Syndergaard - possibly.

D'Arnaud you can make your peace with losing already though.

 

[Kessley Snipes*]

Per MLB Traderumors.com

Earlier today, the Mets agreed to trade R.A. Dickey to the Blue Jays pending Toronto and the NL Cy Young award winner coming to terms on a contract extension by a Tuesday 1 p.m CST deadline. The negotiations have already begun, as have the reactions to the proposed trade.

Mets GM Sandy Alderson received the maximum possible return for Dickey, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio.
Bowden adds (via Twitter) the Blue Jays have gone from non-contenders to division favorites with their second blockbluster trade in a month, which netted them Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes.
The Mets are gambling Travis d'Arnaud becomes a perennial All-Star more than Dickey falls off, tweets MLB.com's Anthony DiComo.
The timing is perfect for the Blue Jays to go all in and deal prospects, but it will take three years to see if it pans out for the Mets, tweets Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
In a separate tweet, Martino quotes an AL executive who says d'Arnaud is "an offensive catcher. He's OK back there. He's always been a baseball rat. Good kid."
A talent evaluator echoed those sentiments about d'Arnaud praising his mental toughness to Andy McCullough of The Star-Ledger (Twitter link).
A rival executive tells Newsday's Marc Carig "both sides win" with this trade adding Noah Syndergaard has an advanced feel for this three main pitches (fastball, curve, and changeup).
Dickey did himself no favors with the pointed remarks he made regarding his contract situation at the Mets' recent holiday party, writes ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. This wasn't the first time Dickey has irked management with his outspoken views, according to Rubin citing Dickey's comments about Citi Field and its effect on David Wright before its reconfiguration.
While some might dismiss the Dickey acquisition, it could very well be one of the most important moves made in what has become a fascinating AL East division race because the true separator will be starting pitching, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Bradford also analyzes the starting rotation for each AL East team.
For teams like the Blue Jays, this is the time to strike with blockbuster trades and free agent signings because of the weakness of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets, opines Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Is is just me, or do we have a JP debate once a week?

For some reason, people can't understand he is a below average catcher.

 

[Eyedea]

Lawrie was already an AAA player when acquired and Jose just needed some adjustments and that was at the major league level.

Casey and Ricky are not part of the starting line-up, but yeah, they've done okay.

Does anyone else think it's possible that AA has lost faith in the organization's ability to develop major league talents good enough to win?

I don't think he lost faith at all, but that he has the ability to make trades because he has so much depth within the system.

I know you said starting lineup, but I couldn't let those examples go to waste. And I'm not sure if Lawrie was a 3rd basemen in the Brewers organization. Confirm/Deny anybody?

 

[Kessley Snipes*]

I don't think he lost faith at all, but that he has the ability to make trades because he has so much depth within the system.

I know you said starting lineup, but I couldn't let those examples go to waste. And I'm not sure if Lawrie was a 3rd basemen in the Brewers organization. Confirm/Deny anybody?

Lawrie was a 2B prospect at the time

 

[rojac]

So basically this cancels out the prospect saving in the Reyes, Johnsson, etc trade. When you combine both trades, it looks more reasonable I guess.

Assuming the New York Post is right, it would become:

Out
-----
Mathis
Hechevarria
Escobar
Alvarez
Marisnick
Nicolino
DeSclafani
D'Arnaud
Syndergaard
another prospect

In
--
Reyes
Johnson
Buehrle
Bonifacio
Dickey
Thole
another prospect

 

[Eyedea]

Lawrie was a 2B prospect at the time

Exactly. A drafted catcher, converted to 2B by the Brewers, and eventually 3B by the Jays. I'd say he's homegrown just on the fact that he had to be converted again and essentially start over at a new position.

 

[captn]

For some reason, people can't understand he is a below average catcher.

It's clear that most people think he has trade value. If everyone thought he was a below average catcher then he wouldn't have any trade value.

 

[GoHardSports]

It's clear that most people think he has trade value. If everyone thought he was a below average catcher then he wouldn't have any trade value.

He has trade value because catcher is a premium position, hes young and still hasn't hit arbitration, and some GMs are too infatuated with power.

 

[GoSensGo6172]

Assuming the New York Post is right, it would become:

Out
-----
Mathis
Hechevarria
Escobar
Alvarez
Marisnick
Nicolino
DeSclafani
D'Arnaud
Syndergaard
another prospect

In
--
Reyes
Johnson
Buehrle
Bonifacio
Dickey
Thole
another prospect

 

[p.l.f.]

what does the NY Post know, anyway?
are they giving JP Ricciardi a percentage?

 

[TSA0402]

Where does Syndergaard play when you have Morrow, Romero, Buehrle, Dickey and possibly Johnson long term? Its not as if Blue Jays don't have any pitching prospects left either for a back end rotation spot.

 

[The Nemesis]

Which stats do you want to use? War? Dwar? Fielding %? The fact is he's solid in all of them when compared to other catchers yet some random stat nobody other then serious Sabremetric guys have heard of will be brought up as the end all of the discussion

Before anything else, I feel like a broken record on this: fielding % is an awful stat. It's built on errors, an even more awful stat. And it's even worse for catchers since a lot of catcher screw-ups won't be counted as errors (remember, passed balls don't get counted as errors). Moving on...

Fangraphs WAR - 1.3
baseball-reference WAR (which I'm trying not to use, but will include because i've got dWAR below) - 1.4
b-r dWAR - 0.9

So by those #s, Arencibia is barely worth more than the hypothetical random C you could sign out of AAA or pluck off the waiver wire.

More to the point, using Fangraphs WAR, Arencibia is 19th out of 25 catchers who had 350+ PAs in WAR, and if we break it down to WAR/PA (to try and exclude the idea that he was held back because he missed time compared to higher usage players) he only moves up 1 spot to 18th. His value is basically equal to John Buck, who will get nowhere near the praise that Arencibia does in some circles.

I'd present dWAR rankings, but b-r doesn't seem to do a whole lot of customization/drilling down.

Arencibia is a mediocre starter at best. And at worst his awful bat outside of his power doesn't make up for average-to-below-average D.

He had power, he drives runs in and he isn't nearly as bad defensively as he's been made out to be. Obviously he can be upgraded to but suggest a prospect catcher that will likely be converted to a 1B is the saviour over pathetic arencibia is Pejorative Slured

#1) "driving in runs" is a function of opportunity as much or more than it is a function of player skill. He drives in runs because he hits homers and because other Blue Jays players happen to be on base when he comes up to bat. He has no control over the latter.

#2) "prospect catcher that will likely be converted to a 1B" What? Where did that come from? There was talk that d'Arnaud would've had to play some 1B/DH to get into games when the Jays were overloaded with catchers, but at no point was it ever considered that he would have to be converted to another position. To assert otherwise is just patently false.

 

[GoSensGo6172]

Where does Syndergaard play when you have Morrow, Romero, Buehrle, Dickey and possibly Johnson long term? Its not as if Blue Jays don't have any pitching prospects left either for a back end rotation spot.

Good point!

 

[rojac]

Exactly. A drafted catcher, converted to 2B by the Brewers, and eventually 3B by the Jays. I'd say he's homegrown just on the fact that he had to be converted again and essentially start over at a new position.

I'd disagree.