Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 13th: Report - Dickey extended, trade just pending physicals

[GoHardSports]

I've never heard of a set figure being thrown out by either AA or Beeston so I'm not so sure about that, and Price is already getting his pay-day through his arbitration. Seriously if Dickey is going for d'Arnaud and Syndergaard, I don't even know what Friedman would be asking for in a package to land Price. Maybe AA inquired about him? Seems like that's what he normally does, right? If he's not shy in taking a risk on Dickey, maybe, just maybe, the risk was way to big to acquire Price.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110128&content_id=16523962&c_id=tor

"We raise our revenues, we raise our expenses at the same time and our salaries. ... We should be a city that can have $140 million, $150 million in the way of salaries. We could support that, and that's the direction that we're headed."

How much more could Friendman possibly ask for? Again, the proposed deal I created seems like fair value.

 

[canucksfan]

Everyone else is giving their own versions. Am I not allowed?

No, I believe they are not giving their own versions.

 

[CommonMeans*]

Before this trade the Jays starting rotation was still vulnerable IMO. JJ may not rebound, Ricky may continue to struggle. Now we can afford one of these scenarios to happen without missing a beat. And don't kid yourself, Dickey has drop dead stuff when that knuckled is dancing. Basically unhittable.

 

[CommonMeans*]

No, I believe they are not giving their own versions.

Well go read newspaper articles then. No point coming to a forum to read regurgitated opinions.

Cheers.

 

[Leafsdude7]

This is how I'd set up the Rotation.

1. Morrow. Dominant, filthy stuff. Can win any day of the night
2. Dickey. After facing 95mph morrow, they'll be like "lol wtf" while seeing 68 mph dancing knuckleballs
3. Johson...ANNNNNNNND back to the power pitcher
4. Buerhle. Basically a crafty wily veteran
5. Romero. Derp.

Dickey's Knuckleball is generally in the high-70/low-80s. It averages out at about 76mph according to pitchf/x. Still a major difference, and Dickey's fastball is low-80s on average, but the knuckleball is not around 68 like Wakefield was.

 

[TootooTrain]

Well go read newspaper articles then. No point coming to a forum to read regurgitated opinions.

Cheers.

So it's better to be wrong than to be right as long as it's your opinion? That's your justification?

 

[CommonMeans*]

I'm fairly certain they were going by prospect rankings through legitimate sources like fangraphs.

Fangraphs has Gose ranked as our number 1 prospect. Just an fyi. I happen to share their opinion

 

[Stats01]

I'm curious to what people in this thread think a Cy Young winning pitcher is worth? Dickey is being under rated significantly.

Agreed, especially the stupid "why did we give up so much for a 38-year old." comments. It's like people just completely ignore the fact that he just won a CY Young award LOL. It's amazing really.

CY Young Award = Value = Team leverage

 

[SpezDispenser]

Because they are in win-now mode and just got back a Cy Young winning ace who gives this rotation a unique look. Every night a different kind of pitcher is coming at you. Finess? check. Power? check. Wacky sick knuckleballs? check.

This rotation is sick. Yes, it sucks to lose a tope-end prospect, but that's how it works. Give to get.

I understand that we have a sick rotation, but I really dislike giving up a guy like that for a 38 year old pitcher - as good as he is.

It's not that I dislike the acquisition, but the price is way too high IMO.

 

[CommonMeans*]

So it's better to be wrong than to be right as long as it's your opinion? That's your justification?

Maybe you should go apply for the Jay's GM job; seeing as how you know all.

 

[The Nemesis]

He's not, and all the numbers are available on baseball reference for you to see. Im not about to start getting into a debate about saver metrics which is all this board likes to use as definitive proof of something

You haven't offered up anything to support this. The people who disagree with you have come back with scads of evidence and supporting information to attempt to validate their point. You should be able to do the same if what you say is true.

Pretty sure its the other way around?

Nope. Hutch was hurt after Drabek, and he held out after he got hurt before deciding to get surgery. It'll be much later in the season if he's even considered to return, if at all in 2013.

True but the fact is, JP hits very well with RISP. He's clutch.

.295 with a .333 OBP% and a .987 OPS.

Maybe we should try him behind guys who can get on base. Maybe something like the top-4 then Lind theb Lawrie-Bonifacio/Izturis-Areniciba-Ramus

What did I say? Bat him 8th. Did you even read my post.

And I call bullcrap. When I played ball, I was always better when the team really needed a hit. I was usually very unfocused when we blew a team out. The more intense a situation was - the better I was. I'm sure there's plenty of people like that.

Throughout his entire career, JP is a much better hitter with RISP. .264avg, .320+OBP% and .850+ OPS. Without RISP his OBP% is probably around .250, approximately a .200avg, with an OPS well under .600.

You may not believe in clutch. I do.

The evidence bears out over the long term. Once you accumulate any significant sample size on a player in clutch situations, their hitting stats tend not to look a whole lot different. I firmly believe that the opposite of clutch, that there are people who collapse under pressure and will perform poorer when the screws are tightened, but all the evidence in the world that's been collected on MLB hitters indicates that clutchness only exists insofar as that your best hitters will tend to still be your best hitters when it matters. And that while there may be guys who have better RISP or other clutch stats, it's usually on a small sample size or random chance.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/374519-the-clutch-myth-and-why-we-buy-into-it

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1031582/index.htm

http://npinopunintended.wordpress.com/2009/10/13/the-myth-of-clutch/

http://blog.kir.com/archives/2007/04/the_myth_of_clu.asp

http://www.theeagleonline.com/sports/story/time-to-dispell-the-myth-of-clutch-october-players/

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2005/10/23/234743/73

and for a little more snarky take on the matter:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/04/i-know-im-going-to-make-fun-of-someone.html

I could go on. The point is that clutchness exists because the narrative created around the game ascribes it to performances. It's real because we make it real. And we make it real because that narrative has always existed and we buy into it. If Derek Jeter gets a hit in the 1st inning with a guy on 3rd and the score 0-0, it's just Jeter getting another hit and we think little of it in terms of its overall impact. If that same hit were in the 8th inning, we attribute it to Jeter's clutchness rather than just the fact that he's a damn good hitter.

As more than one of those links above say "clutch hits exist. Clutch hitters do not."

You realize that was only around 2/3 of a season?

irrelevant. As I said, if you filter the results by PA to try and normalize them, Arencibia only moves up 1 spot. and on the whole the order doesn't really change all that much.

Buster Posey was tops on both raw and normalized WAR lists. His WAR was 8.0 in 610 PAs (0.0131 WAR/PA). Now if you took Arencibia's WAR/PA and extrapolate it to Posey's 610 PAs, JP would've finished the year with a 2.0 WAR. Now if the rest of the catchers on the qualifying list didn't have their PA's change (Just JP), he would move up to around 14th-16th

Nobody who believes in sabametrics seems to think there's such thing as "clutch", but it's not an unheard of phenomenon and the response only is "it doesn't exist".

EDIT: You fixed your post, so I can respond to it properly and say that you need to look to the host of sampled links I posted above to see that there's a whole lot more response than "it doesn't exist." There's evidence. Heaps of it.

FWIW I found 1 link that says it has evidence on clutch hitting being true, but the link offers up little meat from the actual study and I'm not really sold on all the methodology (the guy included sac flies and other things I wasn't keen on using). It's also not a baseball publication/site.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/05/050506140903.htm

 

[91Kadri91*]

And btw, we gave away our #2 and #6 ranked prospects.

Uh, no.

We (in the reported trade) gave our top prospect (that's not even arguable) and our third best prospect (arguably second).

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

Harvey isn't a prospect anymore.

And while I do agree that the trade does seem ugly, it does also show confidence and risk in AA and his scouts. Who knows, maybe the injuries suffered by TDA hinder his ability to play catcher? Or that the development of Syndergaard's secondary pitches might take too long?

Just looking at our prospects right now, Osuna and possibly Stroman could progress to be top 50 prospects after this season, Stroman being less likely because of his ban. But with arms like Osuna, Norris, Stroman, Smoral, and let us not forget Sanchez, wow we still got some impressive stuff down there.

Hopefully Jimenez bounces back, and Nessy continues to impress because right now the only thing lacking in our system is bats and position players. Would be nice if an Austin Wilson or Kris Bryant fall to us next draft eh?

Yea, this is definitely not the end of the world or so. I just feel we really overpaid here. Plus like most, I don't think JPA is a long term solution as the catcher.

But if we combine both the deals, it looks pretty good. Hopefully we can add a good catcher in this year's draft.

 

[Eyedea]

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110128&content_id=16523962&c_id=tor



How much more could Friendman possibly ask for? Again, the proposed deal I created seems like fair value.

Like I said, he probably inquired and the package was just too steep. I highly doubt AA is willing to part with Gose right now especially since Rasmus is a question mark at centre field.

 

[Tony Romo]

now I know why my dream of felix would never have happened

 

[Stats01]

I understand that we have a sick rotation, but I really dislike giving up a guy like that for a 38 year old pitcher - as good as he is.

It's not that I dislike the acquisition, but the price is way too high IMO.

GM's don't negotiate over how old a player is. Whether he's 38, 28, 58, or 108 he's CY Young Award winner. That has extreme value in a trade. Whoever was going to trade for him would've paid through the ass to get him. I am glad it was us because for once we're not wondering how good a player will be 3-5 years down the line or how good our team will be when so and so is ready. About freakin time this organization started contending again. I love this trade. Our rotation is so sick!

 

[canucksfan]

Fangraphs has Gose ranked as our number 1 prospect. Just an fyi. I happen to share their opinion

No, they do not. TDA is one Noah, 3

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

 

[shakes]

Yes they are.

Old players do not improve. Young players do. You do not see any 50 year Olympians in any sport do you?

Improve to what? Win the Cy Young?

 

[Ohio Jones]

Nobody who believes in sabametrics seems to think there's such thing as "clutch", but it's not an unheard of phenomenon and the only response against it is "it doesn't exist".

No, the response is that while it makes intuitive sense for the reasons Hawkeye describes, the numbers over literally DECADES of baseball history simply don't bear it out over time.

One could as easily argue that pitchers "bear down" or become "more focused" when the pressure's on. But the numbers don't support that does either.

The only sense in which the batter's experience seems to change is if the runners on base - whatever the base - are legitimate threats to steal. In those circumstances - and depending where you are in the game and what the score is - the pitches offered to the batter change. Which, again, wouldn't be down to the batter at all, but rather the situation.

Traditionalists like to believe in the idea of clutch hitting, and who can blame them? It makes intuitive sense, and it's also a hell of a romantic notion. But it just doesn't hold up to objective scrutiny, sorry.

 

[GoHardSports]

Agreed, especially the stupid "why did we give up so much for a 38-year old." comments. It's like people just completely ignore the fact that he just won a CY Young award LOL. It's amazing really.

CY Young Award = Value = Team leverage

I'm happy we acquired Dickey he's one of the best picthers in the league, but you can't ignore that fact that he is 38. Sure, he's a knuckleball picther and lets say he picthes until he's 43. Thats 5 years of baseball left in him that may or not taper off talent-wise.
David Price is 27 years old. Lets say he pitches till he's 38 years old. Thats 11 more years of service. They are just as good as each other, but I'd rather have the guy that I can have for another 10 or so years than the guy who can pitch for another 5.

 

[TootooTrain]

Maybe you should go apply for the Jay's GM job; seeing as how you know all.

I judge talent based on the opinions of scouts who have watched the game all their lives. Correct information most definitely deserves to be shared on a forum.

 

[CommonMeans*]

I judge talent based on the opinions of scouts who have watched the game all their lives.

SO basically your judge of talent is superior to that of AA's? Just say it, you're a baseball GM trapped in another man's job.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Gose is our number 1 prospect in my opinion. I'm going to wager Jays' management feels the same. As for pitching, it's really a crap shoot.

Gose is no longer a prospect, and you really need to learn a little bit about prospects before you comment on their rankings or worth.

 

[GoHardSports]

Nope. Hutch was hurt after Drabek, and he held out after he got hurt before deciding to get surgery. It'll be much later in the season if he's even considered to return, if at all in 2013.

Ahh. My mistake.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

If this is the amount of value Dickey has. I wonder it would cost to get Felix.