Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 12th: We don't know Dickey (about any extension. Yet)

[Suntouchable13]

I'm not justifying trading for Dickey for the package we're rumored to give up. I'm trying to compare Dickey and Marcum here as potential acquisition. My stance on Dickey is trade for him only if we're not giving up both D'Arnaud and Syndergaard.

I have a huge feeling that Buerhle in particular might not be here much longer. I see Texas as a potential fit with Mike Olt or Cody Buckel coming back.

Why would the Jays move Buerhle? I will be very upset if they trade him for a couple of prospects when they are trying to win. I want Mark here. A rotation of Johnson, Morrow, Marcum, Romero, Happ does not look nearly as good. Making the team worse if you trade Buerhle and signing Marcum. I like Mark in the 3 hole a lot better than Marcum.

 

[Isles Junkie]

I'm hoping it's Nimmo or Cecchini although I don't think the later is able to be traded yet

I'd be shocked if it was Nimmo. The mets really have no OF prospects to speak of besides Nimmo (though Cory Vaughn is interesting).

 

[Cor]

Why would the Jays move Buerhle? I will be very upset if they trade him for a couple of prospects when they are trying to win. I want Mark here.

People love prospects.....

 

[Dwight K Schrute]

who in the rotation would sit on the off days, romero ? LOL
i guess morrow
or everyone gets 5 days rest

what? do you follow baseball?

 

[Scion]

So let's make this clear, both d'Arnaud (#11) and Syndergaard (#83) (along with Buck plus prospect) are rumoured to being packaged for Dickey, Thole and a prospect.

Mets wanted Olt (#16) and Buckel (#88) for Dickey and the Rangers declined.

I think Flores has to be the Mets prospect, no idea who we'd put in.

I know nothing about Flores, is he any good?

 

[McOilbleeder]

So here is some stuff:

I looked at some knuckleballers of the past to see where Dickey might be headed. I focused on 38 and over(to see how they did compared to their norms) and things such as velocity and workhorseness. I also tried to focus on times closer to the present. Remember this all depends on the information I have at hand and at times alot of it is really poor.

So guys I'll be looking at: Wakefield, Hough, Condiotti

Wakefield(1992-2012):
Age 39: 7-11 140 IP 4.63 ERA. 8.7 H/9. 1.2 HR/9. 3.3 BB/9. 5.8 K/9.
Age 40: 17-12 189 IP 4.76 ERA. 9.1 H/9. 1 HR/9. 3 BB/9/ 5.2 K/9.
Age 41: 10-11 181 IP 4.13 ERA. 7.7 H/9. 1.2 HR/9. 3 BB/9. 5.8 K/9.
Career: 12-11 201 IP 4.41 ERA. 8.8 H/9. 1.2 HR/9. 3.4 BB/9. 6 K/9.

Hough(1970-1994):
Age 39: 18-13 285 IP(UMMMMMM) 3.79 ERA. 7.5 H/9. 1.1 HR/9. 3.9 BB/9. 7 K/9.
Age 40: 15-16 252 IP(ERM) 3.32 ERA. 7.2 H/9. 0.7 HR/9. 4.5 BB/9. 6.2 K/9.
Age 41: 10-13 185 IP 4.35 ERA. 8.3 H/9. 1.4 HR/9. 4.7 BB/9. 4.6 K/9.
Career: 11-11 199 IP 3.75 ERA. 7.8 H/9. 0.9 HR/9. 3.9 BB/9. 5.6 K/9.

Candiotti(1982-1999):
Age 39: 10-7 135 IP 3.60 ERA. 8.5 H/9 1.4 HR/9 2.7 BB/9 5.9 K/9.
Age 40: 11-16 201 IP 4.84 ERA. 9.9 H/9 1.3 HR/9 2.8 BB/9 4.4 K/9.
Age 41: Doesn't matter. Small sample size.
Career: 12-13 215 IP 3.73 ERA. 8.8 H/9 0.8 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 5.7 K/9.

Essentially the drop off for these knuckle ballers in their latter ages isn't as extreme as I thought. Wakefield and Hough struck out slightly less, while Candiotti has a bit of a drop off at 40. Walk numbers stayed similar or rose slightly. As expected their workhorseness (It's a word) decreased with age. HR/9 rates for all three rose a bit. H/9 varied season to season between the three.

Again this is an incredibly superficial look into 3 knuckleballers and how they progressed at 39, 40 and 41. Dickey's last 3 seasons were better than them (though I dunno if he can give us 285 IP ). So it's somewhat encouraging, but remember this is quite a superficial look.

A fun tool in baseball-reference is to use certain factors to predict how a pitcher will do in a different park.

Last year, Dickey would've performed like this in Toronto according to BR:

15-9 3.29 ERA 219 IP 204 H 80 ER 26 HR 57 BB 215 K 1.192 WHIP.

Not too shabby.

 

[darko]

I'd be shocked if it was Nimmo. The mets really have no OF prospects to speak of besides Nimmo (though Cory Vaughn is interesting).

I think Puello rebounds in 2013.

 

[Revolt]

As per TSN:

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=411750

Rumours continue to swirl around the future of New York Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and his potential trade to the Toronto Blue Jays.

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the deal between the two clubs as it stands on Saturday, would see seven players switch teams, with Dickey, catcher Josh Thole and a prospect heading to Toronto for catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, recently acquired catcher John Buck and another prospect.

Sherman stated on his Twitter account on Saturday evening that while the deal is still very much alive, that it could take a day or two before being finalized.

Dickey, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, has one more year on his contract with the Mets worth $5 million. The two sides have been unable to reach an agreement on a contract extension.

The 38-year-old Dickey led the National league in strikeouts with 230 last season and ranked second with an ERA of 2.73. In parts of 10 major league seasons, Dickey has a career ERA of 3.98.

If Dickey is traded, he would be only the fourth reigning Cy Young winner in history to start the following season with a new team, joining David Cone (1995), Pedro Martinez (1998) and Roger Clemens (1999).

 

[Eyedea]

Syndergaard is a much higher prospect than #83 now... I'm assuming those are from beginning of the season because he is a consensus top 50 prospect and arguably our best pitching prospect. If he has another year like he did in Lansing, you're looking at a top 25 prospect.

This trade looks awful so far. I'll give AA benefit of the doubt until its official because he has been great but I hate what the trade looks like so far.

You're right, Sickels has him pegged as the 11th best pitching prospect, so the deal would be pretty lopsided. I didn't make much sense of it when I was writing because I didn't do nearly enough research on the 2013 rankings.

I know nothing about Flores, is he any good?

In terms of hitting, yeah he's good, but defence, not so much.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

I know nothing about Flores, is he any good?

Can hit and has power but plate discipline is an issue (though it showed improvement last season) and doesn't seem to have a position. Moved off SS last year to 3B/2B but it's no sure thing he can stick at either position. Some still think he is a future 1B/DH which if he is, I don't think he has that much as a prospect.

 

[Woodman19]

I think this might be one of those deals that is better to not make.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

You're right, Sickels has him pegged as the 11th best pitching prospect, so the deal would be pretty lopsided. I didn't make much sense of it when I was writing because I didn't do nearly enough research on the 2013 rankings.



In terms of hitting, yeah he's good, but defence, not so much.

Does he? That's even worse. But it does make sense if he is getting on some list in that top 25-35 range.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah Sickels' preliminary top 50 pitching prospects has Synder at #11 and Sanchez at #13. His top 50 hitting prospects has d'Arnaud ranked #9.

To be fair, Sickels did skip over a few arms (Martin Perez at #33 behind Buckel at #31) and completely dropped some (Teheran is out of the top 50 for some reason).

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Yeah Sickels' preliminary top 50 pitching prospects has Synder at #11 and Sanchez at #13. His top 50 hitting prospects has d'Arnaud ranked #9.

I like Sanchez better but yeah, the gap between isn't big. Walk away AA. Best poker players know when to fold their hand and when to go all-in. This isn't the time to go all-in.

 

[smitty10]

I think this might be one of those deals that is better to not make.

Getting Dickey will be huge. However, if we only get him and Thole, what's the point? I really hope we get Davis as well. He'd make it worth it.

 

[canucksfan]

I think this might be one of those deals that is better to not make.

I agree and I am one that favours dealing prospects for veterans.

 

[Eyedea]

Getting Dickey will be huge. However, if we only get him and Thole, what's the point? I really hope we get Davis as well. He'd make it worth it.

It seems bittersweet. You just know Dickey would be a big impact in this rotation, but at the cost of two top prospects?

 

[Nasty Nazem]

I don't care what anybody says but if Syndergaard is truly in the deal, I want Wheeler coming back.

 

[Woodman19]

You got to figure Tinnish and Lacava are strongly lobbying against this.

 

[GAMO1992]

For those interested, an article and video featuring Rosenthal on SN:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/12/15/toronto_blue_jays_ra_dickey_new_york_mets/

 

[91Kadri91*]

I don't care what anybody says but if Syndergaard is truly in the deal, I want Wheeler coming back.

This.

 

[Woodman19]

You know it's a big deal when some of our most notorious anti prospect posters are balking at the price.

 

[Sokil]

A fun tool in baseball-reference is to use certain factors to predict how a pitcher will do in a different park.

Last year, Dickey would've performed like this in Toronto according to BR:

15-9 3.29 ERA 219 IP 204 H 80 ER 26 HR 57 BB 215 K 1.192 WHIP.

Not too shabby.

Where is this tool?

You know it's a big deal when some of our most notorious anti prospect posters are balking at the price.

It's true Especially if the above line holds up. (though 15-9 with our new offense should be quite a few more W's)

 

[Eyedea]

I feel comfortable with these rumours though. Shi Davidi even expressed that there has to be a significant part being packaged with Dickey if they want both d'Arnaud and Syndergaard. I can't see AA dealing 4 of our top 5 prospects in one month without getting some legitimate pieces to stay here. Yes we have Reyes, but JJ and the rumoured RAD could very well bolt next offseason.

 

[McOilbleeder]

Where is this tool?

On a players page, press the blue tab that says "More stats". Scroll down to "Neutralized Pitching". Then right under the red banner it has a "change to" wording. Go across the drop down menu that says "Year (R/G)" and go from there. Kills a couple of hours easily heh.