Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 11th: BJ's like Dickey

[Drunken Crunker]

Blue Jays getting some love from Dan Plesac.

If the #BlueJays do in fact complete the Dickey trade, I'm jumping on board the Jays train! JJ,morrow,Buehrle,Romero AND RA ... I'm all in.

My feelings about RA and baseball in #toronto, if this trade goes thru.... It's great for baseball and Canada for the #BlueJays 2 b relevant

Having played 4 seasons in Toronto,I can tell you it's the best kept secret in baseball. Great city,great ballpark and even better people!

 

[Woodman19]

What about Jeffress and Rogers?

I think it would just make more sense to have a press conference with Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Romero and Morrow so they can talk about what its like to play for a new team.

 

[weems]

I dont see how Darren Oliver wouldnt want to come back for another season with this type of roster?

 

[Stats01]

Let's just hope the world doesn't end on the 21st. I actually want to see this team play :p

 

[Stats01]

This deal has to be a lot bigger then we think. It is taking forever to get done.

 

[Sokil]

Trout, Harper and Strassburg have also been rated highly. Just as many top prospects have turned into stars as busts.

so...it's 50/50?

 

[Woodman19]

This deal has to be a lot bigger then we think. It is taking forever to get done.

Deals normally take days to get done, this just feels different because the Mets front office can't keep its mouth shut and leaked it to the media. Now we have to wait for the finer details before we hear anything which are normally done in secret.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I dont see how Darren Oliver wouldnt want to come back for another season with this type of roster?

With this kind of starting staff he can just sit in the bullpen all day and watch the starters go 7+ every game. He won't have to do much, I'd do that for 3 million

 

[superhakan]

When you go back 5 years and look at the prospect lists (since 5 years is enough time to gauge success) you can see just how many have actually developed into great players.

1: Jay Bruce
2: Evan Longoria
3: Joba Chamberlain
4: Clay Bucholz
5: Colby Rasmus
6: Cameron Maybin
7: Clayton Kershaw
8: Franklin Morales
9: Homer Bailey
10: David Price
11: Travis Snider
12: Matt Wieters
13: Jacoby Ellsbury
14: Andrew McCutchen
15: Jake McGee
16: Brandon Wood
17: Wade Davis
18: Mike Moustakas
19: Elvis Andrus
20: Fernando Martinez

Heres a decent article on prospect bust rates:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/big-leaguers-prospects-and-uncertainty/

quick summary:
Roughly 70% of top 100 prospects bust. Pitchers bust at a higher rate than hitters. Top 20 hitting prospects succeed 61% of the time.

 

[superhakan]

This deal has to be a lot bigger then we think. It is taking forever to get done.

the deal for D'Arnaud is contingent on Dickey agreeing to an extension, that is the likely hold up.

 

[LV*]

I dont see how Darren Oliver wouldnt want to come back for another season with this type of roster?

Who cares? We'll be laughing as he packs his bags for Texas, which would be his fourth stint with the club that has proved to be so loyal to him...

How about Darren Oliver for Robbie Ross, or Martin Perez

 

[Eyedea]

Marc Hulet
‏@marchulet
When I saw d'Arnaud play this year I was a little surprised how low-energy he was. Laid back? Think I'd rather have Gose, but it's close.

Fangraphs prospects expert for those who don't know.

 

[theaub]

Heres a decent article on prospect bust rates:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/big-leaguers-prospects-and-uncertainty/

quick summary:
Roughly 70% of top 100 prospects bust. Pitchers bust at a higher rate than hitters. Top 20 hitting prospects succeed 61% of the time.

Another interesting aspect of that article; Dickey would fall right into the "600+ IP over 3 years" criterion.

 

[TootooTrain]

I think it would just make more sense to have a press conference with Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Romero and Morrow so they can talk about what its like to play for a new team.

If this Dicky deal (lol) gets finalized, it's quite the turnover.

Retained:
Morrow
Romero
Janssen
Delabar
Santos
Lincoln
Happ
Loup
Cecil

Bautista
EE
Lawrie
Rasmus
JP
Lind
Davis

In:
JJ
Dickey
Buerhle
Jeffress
Rogers

Reyes
Bonifacio
Melky
Buck
Izturis

 

[Eyedea]

When you go back 5 years and look at the prospect lists (since 5 years is enough time to gauge success) you can see just how many have actually developed into great players.

1: Jay Bruce
2: Evan Longoria
3: Joba Chamberlain
4: Clay Bucholz
5: Colby Rasmus
6: Cameron Maybin
7: Clayton Kershaw
8: Franklin Morales
9: Homer Bailey
10: David Price
11: Travis Snider
12: Matt Wieters
13: Jacoby Ellsbury
14: Andrew McCutchen
15: Jake McGee
16: Brandon Wood
17: Wade Davis
18: Mike Moustakas
19: Elvis Andrus
20: Fernando Martinez

I still like Maybin. Not an all-star but him and Bourjos fill a need for any team looking for a great defensive centre fielder.

 

[Woodman19]

I still like Maybin. Not an all-star but him and Bourjos fill a need for any team looking for a great defensive centre fielder.

I would argue that Chamberlin, Rasmus, Maybin, Morales, Snider and Davis are still potentially good players, just not stars.

 

[Stats01]

Yes Syndergaard is good. Projected to be a top of the rotation starter. Probably ends up at least a #2

 

[Destroyer100]

How does the MLB draft compare to the NHL draft for a newbie like me who only follows hockey. Do the prospects take as long as nhl prospect to get to the big league or is longer or shorter. Also how long are the rounds in the draft and what the talent like, is the 1st round picks bring good value.

Thanks

 

[Natey]

who is that?

crazy that lansing retweeted it..

 

[cyris]

Losing Syndergaard would be a bigger loss than D'Arnaud, to me at least.

Not for me. We have tons of pitching prospects not so much positional prospects tho.

Syndergaard + Gose may be worse than just TDA tho.

 

[Stats01]

How does the MLB draft compare to the NHL draft for a newbie like me who only follows hockey. Do the prospects take as long as nhl prospect to get to the big league or is longer or shorter. Also how long are the rounds in the draft and what the talent like, is the 1st round picks bring good value.

Thanks

Baseball prospects usually take a lot of time to develop. High schoolers usually 4-5 years before they're even ready. College players usually a year or two.

 

[TootooTrain]

who is that?

Nobody. The Lugnuts twitter account got punked by some random blogger. Please check these links before you post them people.

 

[Woodman19]

Not for me. We have tons of pitching prospects not so much positional prospects tho.

Syndergaard + Gose may be worse than just TDA tho.

I would deal Syndergaard if it meant keeping D'Arnaud and I love Syndergaard. We have an abundance of high ceiling arms, not so much with position players and on top of that he is still a ways off from being in the big leagues, D'Arnaud is not.

 

[cyris]

How does the MLB draft compare to the NHL draft for a newbie like me who only follows hockey. Do the prospects take as long as nhl prospect to get to the big league or is longer or shorter. Also how long are the rounds in the draft and what the talent like, is the 1st round picks bring good value.

Thanks

Traditionally much longer.

Gose is 22 and still considered quite young for a prospect.
Kadri at 22 is considered quite old for a prospect.

 

[Destroyer100]

Baseball prospects usually take a lot of time to develop. High schoolers usually 4-5 years before they're even ready. College players usually a year or two.

Thank you very much for your quick response.