Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 10th: Melk Man Edition

[King Mapes]

Excuse the ignorance, but if this happens where does Dickey fit in the rotation?

Bumps Happ to a long reliever..?

 

[cyris]

Excuse the ignorance, but if this happens where does Dickey fit in the rotation?

Should be the ace base on last season but may move down a couple spots just to make match up a little harder. Morrow deserves the opening day start. Really any of Dickey, Johnson or Morrow could be a legit staff ace with Romero as a sleeper to get in there.

 

[p.l.f.]

13 mil a yr for 2 yrs?
that aint bad
i was guessing 20 million a yr

 

[LV*]

Am I the only one who doesn't really want Dickey, lol?

edit: I mean, the price is ridiculous. We're not in that position to just trade D'Arnaud

 

[Nasty Nazem]

The only way I would be ok with trading D'Arnaud is if this trade is bigger than we think, and Ike Davis is included.

I kinda don't think Ike Davis is that good. I mean, he isn't bad but for a 1st baseman, not a big time bat. He does have some upside so maybe he could still improve.

Power is legit and he can walk but strikeouts are an issue -- may hold him back from being able to hit for AVG. Can't hit lefties either.

People were high on Nester Molina too.

edit: can't even remember myself. sigh. its getting late

BBA said he would have ranked 18th in the system the year he was traded. Yes, we did have a deep farm but he wasn't a great prospect. He just had a really great year and Jays sold high on him. He was pretty bad last season and while Santos was injured, at the time, it seemed we gave up little for a potentially elite closer on a good contract.

Davis absolutely raked from June 9th onwards (265/.347/.565. In 383 PA), and has shown flashes of being an above average 1B in previous seasons. He isn't my first choice, but I would at least be comfortable with trading D'Arnaud if he were included in the transaction, his power likely plays up at the Rogers center as well.

IIRC, RC is pretty neutral for LH bats (or well, if you're hitting it to the right side). Favors pull hitters RHB big time though. I feel like Davis might be overvalued by others (not you specifically but by Mets organization) because he hit 30+ homeruns.

 

[Gobo]

Excuse the ignorance, but if this happens where does Dickey fit in the rotation?

Top of it.

Dickey would be our best. Johnson could be our best. Morrow might be our best. Romero has potential to be our best. In a dream world where all four of them succeed, we have 4 ace-caliber pitchers. In the nightmare, Johnson & Morrow get injured, Romero continues last seasons form, Dickey/Buerhle prove too old.

 

[Cool Beans Man]

JPA trying to catch a knuckleball???

puke.

John Buck would likely act as a personal catcher.

However, if Dickey is acquired, I would imagine JPA will be going the other way anyways.

 

[bigred50]

Prospects are a toss up, regardless of their "ranking." I've never understood fans' attachments to "prospects."

Trading a prospect for the reigning NL Cy Young winner? Sounds good to me.

 

[Cool Beans Man]

Prospects are a toss up, regardless of their "ranking." I've never understood fans' attachments to "prospects."

Trading a prospect for the reigning NL Cy Young winner? Sounds good to me.

Depends on the ceiling. And TDA's is extremely high right now.

It's not like RA Dickey is 28. He's 38.

I understand "going for it" which AA is clearly doing, but prospects like TDA don't come around too too often.

 

[Woodman19]

Prospects are a toss up, regardless of their "ranking." I've never understood fans' attachments to "prospects."

Trading a prospect for the reigning NL Cy Young winner? Sounds good to me.

No one is questioning Dickey's talent, they are questioning his sustainability. 38 year old players do not tend to get better and better as they enter their 40's. It is not unrealistic to expect Dickey to decline in the coming years and the "Prospects" to get better.

 

[Felstead]

Prospects are a toss up, regardless of their "ranking." I've never understood fans' attachments to "prospects."

Trading a prospect for the reigning NL Cy Young winner? Sounds good to me.

Potential is a very key word. And in this conversation, the potential in D'Arnaud is to high to give up for a 38 year old Dickey.

 

[Scion]

I kinda don't think Ike Davis is that good. I mean, he isn't bad but for a 1st baseman, not a big time bat. He does have some upside so maybe he could still improve.

Power is legit and he can walk but strikeouts are an issue -- may hold him back from being able to hit for AVG. Can't hit lefties either.

Davis' BB% rose from 7% to 12% after May, and his K% dropped from 29% to 25% in that same time, both of those rates are good enough if you believe in Davis' power.

The platoon splits are an issue, but it is important to note that Ike Davis absolutely raked in the second half last season, to the tune of an .880 OPS. The potential is there for him to be a big bat, even with his struggles against LHP.

IIRC, RC is pretty neutral for LH bats (or well, if you're hitting it to the right side). Favors pull hitters RHB big time though. I feel like Davis might be overvalued by others (not you specifically but by Mets organization) because he hit 30+ homeruns.

It's still better than Shea Stadium if I'm not mistaken. FTR, I actually think Ike Davis is a bit underrated because of his unsustainably low BABIP, consider the following data from rotographs:

Now, projecting Davis’ numbers out to a full 162 games (especially the latter portion of the season) is a bit of an exercise in fantasy (no pun intended) since his .369/.246 wOBA vs. RHP/LHP platoon splits remain a problem and served to keep Davis low in or out of the lineup against southpaws. But there were plenty of positives that crept into his peripherals as the year went along – his BB% sat around 7% in April/May, but was north of 12% for the remainder of the season. His K% was poor all season, but at least declined from near 29% during the season’s first two months to ~25% thereafter. He also appears to have suffered from some rather poor BABIP luck; his 21.1% LD% and subsequent .310 xBABIP are more in line with his previous seasons (.321 and .344 in 2010 and 2011, respectively) than his .246 figure in 2012 (even with the somewhat concerning bump in his infield pop up rate). Regressing his true average towards his xBABIP puts his line closer to something in the ballpark of .260/.360/.520 and that’s still including the early suck that was Mr. Davis. Maybe you have a reason for not regressing him all the way back (especially if you believe his ankle injury has semi-permanently affected his baserunning speed), but that gives you the idea of what a more normalized season looks like for Ike.

 

[canucksfan]

I believe Davis didn't play that much against lefties after the first couple of months.

 

[JAMmer124]

Prospects are a toss up, regardless of their "ranking." I've never understood fans' attachments to "prospects."

Trading a prospect for the reigning NL Cy Young winner? Sounds good to me.

Trading D'Arnaud for Dickey would be like trading Rielly for Selanne.

 

[Silver91]

ok so i spent all day today with family, can someone sum up what happened :S I see MLBTR saying we're in the lead for Dickey and TDA may be involved? Any of the major guys talking about it?

 

[Woodman19]

I just don't see us paying more for Dickey (D'Arnaud + Gose)then the Phillies did for Halladay when Halladay was a better player, younger and had more contractual control then Dickey does now.

 

[ChuckWoods]

Trading D'Arnaud for Dickey would be like trading Rielly for Selanne.

I agree.

I am not a baseball fan, as in my lifetime there really hasn't been too much to cheer about.

But in no sport do you trade a "Top 10" prospect for a 38+ year old player by any means.

Yes I realize that it gives you a legitimate shot at a title, but that is the sort of deal that doesn't bode well in most instances.

The Jays have already made some significant moves to draw new found interest to this team (myself included). I dont think they need to sell the farm for R.A. Dickey despite his credentials.

 

[King Mapes]

Trading D'Arnaud for Dickey would be like trading Rielly for Selanne.

If we were contenders and Selanne just won a major award and was slightly younger... Yes. So, no it isn't

 

[dredeye]

So what's all this R A Dickey news/rumors? Is anyone credible saying a deal is close? Is the rumoured deal still JP plus Gose? I'd be okay with that, my girlfriend.. Not so much she's a big JP fan ever since meeting him

Ill say this, JP is my favorite athlete I've met but it is what it is and best for the team. Easy favorites in the East with Dickey

Davidi confirmed the trade talks but said this is what AA hates because it could fall through

 

[King Mapes]

ok so i spent all day today with family, can someone sum up what happened :S I see MLBTR saying we're in the lead for Dickey and TDA may be involved? Any of the major guys talking about it?

Jon Heyman reported it but said unconfirmed

 

[Cloned]

It's all a misdirection. King Felix is coming to Toronto.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

wow we are trading travis d'arnaud now.

 

[JAMmer124]

If we were contenders and Selanne just won a major award and was slightly younger... Yes. So, no it isn't

It was a hypothetical. As in, if the Leafs were in the same position as the Jays. Selanne is comparable, was PPG what 2 seasons ago?

 

[cyris]

If we were contenders and Selanne just won a major award and was slightly younger... Yes. So, no it isn't

Ok so Reiley for Lidstrom or Thomas after they won their awards in 2011.

 

[JAMmer124]

It's all a misdirection. King Felix is coming to Toronto.

See, if this came true, fine with dealings D'Arnaud