Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.

[Maestro84]

Seems strange the Jays would pay $20M for a player but not $21M. I wonder if they were lukewarm on him because of the loss of pick.

Same goes for Thor. Is seriously $1M the difference of going to the Jays who are on the cusp or a team that has underperformed for years.



Masai really going the distance to find that centre.

I think that draft pick was a deterrence. Thor could very much come and go for 1 year, make $20 million on the payroll and you'd lose a draftpick on a player who hasn't been healthy for much of the last 3-4 years.

Gausman was more appealing than others for Shatkins because he wasn't tied to a draft pick

 

[phillipmike]

I think that draft pick was a deterrence. Thor could very much come and go for 1 year, make $20 million on the payroll and you'd lose a draftpick on a player who hasn't been healthy for much of the last 3-4 years.

Gausman was more appealing than others for Shatkins because he wasn't tied to a draft pick

Regardless,

Berrios
Gausman
Ryu
Manoah
Syndergaard

would have been nice.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Maestro84]

Regardless,

Berrios
Gausman
Ryu
Manoah
Syndergaard

would have been nice.

Yeah that would've been a sweet rotation though if Thor hammer can stay healthy. I wonder how much Carlos Rodon is going to demand? He's similar to Thor in a sense where he's young, has electric stuff, and is often injury-prone.

Big difference was 2021 was actually his breakthrough year (despite another injury) so I assume he'll at least demand for a 2-3 year contract at a similar AAV

 

[Maestro84]

I've said it like 10 times already but Freeman makes no sense. Vlad should be the full-time 1B of the future and Freeman is going to cost an arm and a leg.

I'd rather a full-time 3B join the team instead of trying put Vladdy at a position he REALLY struggled - last thing you want is a dissatisfied Vladdy which could also affect his hitting potentially

Also it'd be weird to see Freeman not in Atlanta, he's the current day Chipper Jones to that franchise imo

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Yeah that would've been a sweet rotation though if Thor hammer can stay healthy. I wonder how much Carlos Rodon is going to demand? He's similar to Thor in a sense where he's young, has electric stuff, and is often injury-prone.

Big difference was 2021 was actually his breakthrough year (despite another injury) so I assume he'll at least demand for a 2-3 year contract at a similar AAV

I wanted Rodon too but he has had 4 major arm injuries since 2016 and ended the season with another arm injury which is why the White Sox didn’t give him a QO.

Hopefully the Jays do their due diligence but I’m not convinced he could pitch 162 games plus playoffs without missing a good amount of games.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I'd rather push hard for Correa or Bryant over Freeman. Correa would be a big upgrade defensively at a premier position while adding a quality bat and not being 32. If you can convince Bo to either move to 2nd full time or get them to platoon between SS and 2nd the team would be way better than if they just signed Freeman.

 

[phillipmike]

I've said it like 10 times already but Freeman makes no sense. Vlad should be the full-time 1B of the future and Freeman is going to cost an arm and a leg.

I'd rather a full-time 3B join the team instead of trying put Vladdy at a position he REALLY struggled - last thing you want is a dissatisfied Vladdy which could also affect his hitting potentially

Also it'd be weird to see Freeman not in Atlanta, he's the current day Chipper Jones to that franchise imo

I don’t believe it either. I think Freeman is just using the Jays to get more money out of the Braves.

That being said, Freeman’s bat is perfect for lineup. The glove not so much. But I saw a Twitter poster say if Vladdy gives you 50 games at 1B, 50 at DH and 50 at 3B then Freeman can play 100 at 1B and 50 at DH.

This open up 50 games at DH to rotate through the rest of the lineup.

Last year was anomaly in terms of starts at DH for a non 1B/DH player because of Springer:

2021: 102/149 (68%)

If you exclude Springer, it’s 64/149 or 42%

2020: 26/60 (43%)
2019: 50/148 (34%)
2018: 42/151 (28%)
2017: 20/152 (13%)
2016: 65/152 (43%)

If you take out the high end in 2021 and the low end in 2017 you get roughly 38% of non 1B/DH at the DH position which is roughly 61 games.

And that’s if you want to have a that many games to rotate with a DH. If Springer is healthy, you don’t need that many games. Just have Vladdy and Freeman split 1B and DH, especially with an NL DH coming. Jays did this a lot with Edwin and Smoak in 2016. Then Morales, Pearce, Smoak and Tellez in 2017, 2018 and part of 2019.

If you just split Vladdy and Freeman, you can still go after a short term 3B or just run with Espinal and Smith until Groshans is ready or perhaps try Moreno out there.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I don’t believe it either. I think Freeman is just using the Jays to get more money out of the Braves.

That being said, Freeman’s bat is perfect for lineup. The glove not so much. But I saw a Twitter poster say if Vladdy gives you 50 games at 1B, 50 at DH and 50 at 3B then Freeman can play 100 at 1B and 50 at DH.

This open up 50 games at DH to rotate through the rest of the lineup.

Last year was anomaly in terms of starts at DH for a non 1B/DH player because of Springer:

2021: 102/149 (68%)

If you exclude Springer, it’s 64/149 or 64%.

2020: 26/60 (43%)
2019: 50/148 (34%)
2018: 42/151 (28%)
2017: 20/152 (13%)
2016: 65/152 (43%)

And that’s if you want to have a that many games to rotate with a DH. If Springer is healthy, you don’t need that many games. Just have Vladdy and Freeman split 1B and DH, especially with an NL DH coming. Jays did this a lot with Edwin and Smoak in 2016. Then Morales, Pearce, Smoak and Tellez in 2017, 2018 and part of 2019.

If you just split Vladdy and Freeman, you can still go after a short term 3B or just run with Espinal and Smith until Groshans is ready or perhaps try Moreno out there.

Cool breakdown, thanks for providing.

I've got enough faith in management that they know what they're doing based on what they've built so far.

Hard to imagine they're not big fish shopping at this point, they seem keen on going all in

 

[Kurtz]

He did also say that the Dodgers and Yankees were talking to him as well, and he also thought Freeman would give the Braves the chance to match the best offer. So I think this one is very unlikely for us.

 

[Avilaj07]

I think the one thing that Atkins is keen on is adding a superior left bat which is why you see the Freeman rumors. There's not really any quality left bats available via free agency.

 

[Bjindaho]

Seems strange the Jays would pay $20M for a player but not $21M. I wonder if they were lukewarm on him because of the loss of pick.

Same goes for Thor. Is seriously $1M the difference of going to the Jays who are on the cusp or a team that has underperformed for years.



Masai really going the distance to find that centre.

I think that the offer he received was absolutely stupid. The guy is coming off an injury. Best case scenario, he rebounds and leaves with no compensation while costing a pick (or you have to overpay him to stay). Worst case, you pay a ton of money and a pick for him and he is either not effective or injured.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[ShaneFalco]

It's such a tease

 

[phillipmike]

That lefty bat we’ve been looking for.

 

[Discoverer]

I wasn't a huge fan of the contract Syndergaard got from the Angels, so I'm ok with missing there. There's a ton of upside there, but also plenty of risk that you give up the compensation pick and get next to nothing out of him. If you're going the high-risk route, I'll easily take Rodon instead, and with the offense they look to have at this point a lower-ceiling, more reliable arm wouldn't be the worst choice either.

 

[dredeye]

Maybe this will be another Gausman scenario with Thor. He signs his prove it deal for one year. We had solid conversations with him setting a foundation. He has a good year and we circle back after this season with no comp pick attach and get a multi year deal done.

 

[dredeye]

That lefty bat we’ve been looking for.

Oh boy. All the bloodlines please

 

[Bjindaho]

I wasn't a huge fan of the contract Syndergaard got from the Angels, so I'm ok with missing there. There's a ton of upside there, but also plenty of risk that you give up the compensation pick and get next to nothing out of him. If you're going the high-risk route, I'll easily take Rodon instead, and with the offense they look to have at this point a lower-ceiling, more reliable arm wouldn't be the worst choice either.

I'd be shocked if Toronto was willing to offer 1 year. If we were in the running, it was on a multi-year, lower dollar deal (like the 3 year, 40 million we offered Gausman last year). At that price, we still sign Gausman.

 

[showtime8]

I think the one thing that Atkins is keen on is adding a superior left bat which is why you see the Freeman rumors. There's not really any quality left bats available via free agency.

Maybe not ideal, but what about Matt Carpenter? Not as an everyday guy, but someone that can still play a bit.

 

[Beaumaris]

I've said it like 10 times already but Freeman makes no sense. Vlad should be the full-time 1B of the future and Freeman is going to cost an arm and a leg.

I'd rather a full-time 3B join the team instead of trying put Vladdy at a position he REALLY struggled - last thing you want is a dissatisfied Vladdy which could also affect his hitting potentially

Also it'd be weird to see Freeman not in Atlanta, he's the current day Chipper Jones to that franchise imo

Not sure if you noticed but,Vladdy struggled at first base before he
showed how good he was at adapting.I tend to believe he could,and probably would do the same moving back to third.

 

[The Nemesis]

Jeff Blair is getting dragged on twitter for his HOF ballot because he chooses to only vote for 4 players and bumped Manny Ramirez off his ballot (having voted for him in previous years) tob"make room" for A-Rod even though he still really had 6 more voting spots available.

 

[djdev]

Not sure if you noticed but,Vladdy struggled at first base before he
showed how good he was at adapting.I tend to believe he could,and probably would do the same moving back to third.

i think alot of it was conditioning and putting in the work, hes shown he is willing to bust his ass to improve. i would be open to giving him another shot at 3rd base. this freeman thing kind of reminds me of that solid vet who can rake as one of the final pieces, alot like the paul molitor signing back in our world series days.

 

[phillipmike]

Trade proposal time.

Houston is about to lose Correra. They need a CF, a 3B/SS, cheap starting pitching and some money to spend.

They lost Springer and are about to lose Correra and possibly Grienke.

Perfect time for a retool to save some money and get younger.

Jays need a dependable #5 starter and a left handed hitting bat. Two players the Astros have that fit the bill are two players the Jays chased in consecutive off seasons; Michael Brantley and Jake Odorizzi.

Proposal;

To Toronto:
LF Michael Brantley ($16M - 2022)
SP Jake Odorizzi ($8M - 2022, guaranteed $3.25M in 2023 in a buyout)

To Houston:
LF Lourdes Gurriel ($5M - 2023)
CF Randall Grichuk (10.3M 2023)
SP Ross Stripling ($4.4M - 2022)
3B Kevin Smith
SP Anthony Kay

Houston retools, get younger and control. Saves $5M in 2022. They fill their CF, LF and 3B positions and add two 5th/6th starter. Gurriel reunites with his brother. Grichuk grew up in Houston and Stripling 3 hours away. Houston’s OF would be Gurriel-Grichuk-Tucker.

Jays get a dependable 5 starter and a lefty bat for the lineup. Jays OF is Brantley-Springer-Hernandez.

Rotation is;
Berrios
Gausman
Ryu
Manoah
Odorizzi

In this trade the Jays only spend $5M extra in 2022. Which means they would have $30-40M left this off-season to get another legit bat like a Freeman or Bryant and a pen arm in Kenley.
Most importantly the Jays rid themselves of Grichuk’s 2023 money. And if they pick up Odorizzi’s option they save $9.5M in 2023, if they don’t then they save $12.75M.

If this trade is offered to you, do you do it?