Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Gurriel had a breakout year? This year? His 2019 and 2020 were way better. He was fine this year too. But he had an extended stretch early in the season where he couldn't hit anything which hurt his overall numbers.

This season was the first time in his career in a season he had over a 100 games played, he had 57 games played 2 seasons ago and like 80 something the year prior, what are you basing it all over his avg. or something. This was a breakout year for him whether you want to acknowledge that or not, yes he struggled early on but went on a tear in the 2nd half of the season, but trying to make the claim he was better in a small sample size is kind of ridiculous.

 

[Discoverer]

This season was the first time in his career in a season he had over a 100 games played, he had 57 games played 2 seasons ago and like 80 something the year prior, what are you basing it all over his avg. or something. This was a breakout year for him whether you want to acknowledge that or not, yes he struggled early on but went on a tear in the 2nd half of the season, but trying to make the claim he was better in a small sample size is kind of ridiculous.

He WAS better in 2019 and 2020 despite the smaller sample. That's completely and utterly undeniable. He was better those years in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+... playing more games doesn't automatically make him better.

And I say that as someone who really, really doesn't want to trade him because I think he has a huge season or two in him.

 

[Canada4Gold]

This season was the first time in his career in a season he had over a 100 games played, he had 57 games played 2 seasons ago and like 80 something the year prior, what are you basing it all over his avg. or something. This was a breakout year for him whether you want to acknowledge that or not, yes he struggled early on but went on a tear in the 2nd half of the season, but trying to make the claim he was better in a small sample size is kind of ridiculous.

In 2019 and 2020 combined he had 567 plate appearances with a .289 Average, .336 OBP, .847 OPS and a 128 wRC+

Last year he had 541 plate appearances with a .276 average, .319 OBP, .785 OPS, and a 107 wRC+

In a larger sample he was better prior to this year.

His entire career he has 1371 plate appearances with a .282 average, .324 OBP, .816 OPS and a 115 wRC+

This past season he was slightly worse than his career averages in every way. Not sure what kind of breakout season that is. He's a fine player that I'd like to keep until he becomes a free agent. He didn't have a breakout season. He had a good season.

 

[dredeye]

Who’s in LF if we move Gurriel?

I want to keep Gurriel at almost all costs we would be so thin in the outfield after Springer and Teo. For J- Ram Something like Kirk, 1 of Martinez or Groshans, Kloff, Smith and Grichuck would be my offer. I might even move all 3 of Groshans, Martinez, Kirk if we can keep Moreno and Gurriel and they can give us a reliever too.

There’s no need to keep him at all costs. I like Gurriel but he’s replaceable. Immediately you replace him with Grichuk but they are also linked to that Japanese outfielder. Either way worst case you need a fourth outfielder. I get that you like him but I’m not that desperate to retain him.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Gurriel had been playing so well of late that people should have started calling him Mr. September. In 22 games this month, he was batting .364 with seven homers, six doubles and two triples with a .426 on-base percentage. His 1.184 on-base plus slugging percentage was higher than what Guerrero, Marcus Semien or anyone else on the Jays roster has produced.

 

[dredeye]

That’s such an insane trade. You never see that kind of trade anymore. Obviously that’s a one of a kind but I means stars for stars instead of prospects

 

[Canada4Gold]

Gurriel had been playing so well of late that people should have started calling him Mr. September. In 22 games this month, he was batting .364 with seven homers, six doubles and two triples with a .426 on-base percentage. His 1.184 on-base plus slugging percentage was higher than what Guerrero, Marcus Semien or anyone else on the Jays roster has produced.

and he had a 1.047 OPS in September in 2020, and a 1.378 OPS in May in 2019, and a 1.063 OPS in June of 2019. Hot months happen. I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here. How does a hot month have anything to do with a career year? If I point out that his OPS was .572 in April does that mean he had a whatever is the opposite of breakout year?

A breakout year is a year significant better than previous ones. Not one below career average and 3rd best of 4 years total.

His OPS in September was also 1.083 so I assume that's an article from before the month finished.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

and he had a 1.047 OPS in September in 2020, and a 1.378 OPS in May in 2019, and a 1.063 OPS in June of 2019. Hot months happen. I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here. How does a hot month have anything to do with a career year? If I point out that his OPS was .572 in April does that mean he had a whatever is the opposite of breakout year?

A breakout year is a year significant better than previous ones. Not one below career average and 3rd best of 4 years total.

His OPS in September was also 1.083 so I assume that's an article from before the month finished.

You really can't let this go lol, comparing someone who plays half a season to someone who plays a full season isn't a valid argument, you can say all you want his stats were decent but it's a small sample size when a guy barley plays half a season to stats in a full season. You must be fun at parties

 

[Discoverer]

You really can't let this go lol, comparing someone who plays half a season to someone who plays a full season isn't a valid argument, you can say all you want his stats were decent but it's a small sample size when a guy barley plays half a season to stats in a full season. You must be fun at parties

Gurriel's numbers were worse in 2021 than in the two previous seasons. He played more games but was less effective in those games than he had been previously in his career. I don't see why this is so complicated.

If a guy hits 18 HR in 50 games one year and then hits 20 HR in 150 games the next, would you say he was a better HR hitter the second year?

 

[Kurtz]

Gurriel accrued 1.5 fWar last year in 141 games. An average MLBer is at around 2 fWar over 162. Gurriel was average to slightly below average overall last year.

I also don't think that that poster is aware that there was a 60 game season in 2020 and Gurriel played in 57. So even if his definition of having a great year is just staying healthy, Gurriel regressed in that respect as well.

 

[TGB]

He didn't have a breakout season. He had a good season.

He had an inconsistent season which can be just as annoying as a bad season. At least the bad guy will get benched or waived or something. Inconsistent players can drag it out a long time as everyone waits for the guy to FINALLY round into form. Unless the player goes on an absolute tear like Springer did, scoring an entire game's worth runs all by himself at times game after game for a week, the guy will probably cause as many losses as he wins later. Thankfully, Gurriel's hotstreak came when it mattered, and it's not like he isn't young enough to potentially get it together. Not like we have a better option to replace him.

You really can't let this go lol, You must be fun at parties

Then say something he can't refute. Resorting to snark just makes YOU look bad, not him.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Gurriel had a terrible April and May but was one of our best hitters for the remainder of the year. Coincidentally, Grichuk was one of our best hitters the first 2 months, and the worst the remainder of the way

 

[Puckstuff]

If the Jays can get rid of Grichcuk would anyone be down for a Conforto signing? Nice lefty bat and might get him on discount after his .729 ops season. This wouldn’t take away from 3B it would be in addition to 3B but 3B would have to be a cheaper player at the cost of prospects so no Bryant (who I have no interest in).

 

[Discoverer]

If the Jays can get rid of Grichcuk would anyone be down for a Conforto signing? Nice lefty bat and might get him on discount after his .729 ops season. This wouldn’t take away from 3B it would be in addition to 3B but 3B would have to be a cheaper player at the cost of prospects so no Bryant (who I have no interest in).

Conforto's complicated. I like him as a fit for this team, but he's coming off a really bad season, so I wouldn't want to commit much... something like the Semien deal would make sense. Except that he turned down the QO, so I really don't like the idea of giving up a pick for just one year of a player (not to mention he'll likely be looking for either a multi-year deal or more than $18.4 million on a one year deal).

Replacing Grichuk with Conforto would be amazing, though.

 

[Bjindaho]

If the Jays can get rid of Grichcuk would anyone be down for a Conforto signing? Nice lefty bat and might get him on discount after his .729 ops season. This wouldn’t take away from 3B it would be in addition to 3B but 3B would have to be a cheaper player at the cost of prospects so no Bryant (who I have no interest in).

Hard no from me. Can only play LF defensive, attached to QO, coming off a terrible year. Let someone else gamble.

 

[phillipmike]

Danny Jansen: A Key to Kevin Gausman and the 2022 Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman has a unique distinction: The last pitcher to ever pitch to Buster Posey.

...

Replacing Buster Posey is no simple task—he leaves Hall of Fame-sized shoes Toronto's Jansen can't be expected to fully fill. However, in some of the ways that matter most, Jansen could be the perfect new battery-mate for Gausman and prove crucial to the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays.

In Baseball Prospectus' blocking runs added metric (BlkR), Posey led all catchers in baseball in 2021 with +0.8. In 2020, Jansen led American League catchers in the same stat. Though Jansen slipped down the list in 2021, missing time with injuries, he ranked within the top 20 in BlkR again despite having less than half the opportunities of everyday catchers like Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina. A quick glance at Gausman's splitter heat map (below) shows why blocking is a useful talent for Toronto's eldest backstop.

In 2021, three of the four Blue Jay pitchers who threw splitters (Jeremy Beasley, Joakim Soria, Rafael Dolis, Trent Thornton) posted ERAs lower than their season averages when tossing to Jansen, and Soria's 108 ERA came in just .1 IP. Gausman throws more splits than any of those 2021 Blue Jays, leaning on the diving pitch over 40% of the time, but Jansen seems up to the task. The Jays have four catchers on the 40-man roster but have been open to personal catchers in the past, pairing Jansen with Hyun Jin Ryu and Alejandro Kirk with Robbie Ray.

"I definitely love when guys can block the ball well," Gausman said in his introductory Blue Jays press conference. "I felt like the two catchers that I had last year were really good at that. A big reason why guys didn't take the extra base on me was because they were so good at blocking it."

You may have missed it in the suspense of a playoff race, but Jansen was the best catcher in baseball in the final month of the 2021 season. His wRC+ (186) was almost thirty points higher than any other backstop and his 17 September RBI were more than every catcher but Salvador Perez.

The keys to Jansen’s offensive success aren’t a mystery—he flourishes when he pulls the ball in the air. On pulled baseballs, he posted a 1.246 OPS in 2021, and on fly balls .964. It's no coincidence his September success came in the month he pulled more pitches and put more balls in the air than any other month in 2021.

Jansen's showed stretches of struggle alongside months like September, where the offensive ceiling matches the defense. After 251 major league games, we still don't really know who he is. For now, Jansen's a seemingly perfect fit behind the plate for Toronto's newest pitcher with a good eye and pop in the bat. He's not Posey, but maybe there's a next level for Jansen that nudges him closer to the San Francisco legend.

 

[The Nemesis]

This weird Gurriel take is confusing.

He had a breakout year because he played more games than he had (even though he played basically all of the 2020 season which was only shortened due to factors beyond his control) and that's what's important even though his stat line for the year was worse than what he did in prior seasons. But those prior seasons don't count for as much because they were smaller samples. But also he had a super strong September in 2021 and that's important even though it's just as small if not a smaller sample than anything else that's being brushed off as irrelevant...

what?

At the end of the day Gurriel had an OK 2021. He posted his worst overall stat line since his ultra-shaky rookie year (when he was still struggling to cut it as an infielder). He put up his worst batting average and his power somewhat vanished while also not getting the BABIP luck (or speed/hustle-driven-luck) that he got in previous years. On the up side he did strike out less, but that came with a lot more grounders than usual out of him and fewer hard hit balls (which likely goes hand in hand with the higher GB rate).

He wasn't awful by any stretch, but this wasn't clearly or even debatably his best year except by the fact that he didn't get hurt and miss like 30-40 games in the middle. The fact that he ended strong is not anything huge because he's had similar hot months before and just like every pronouncement that Grichuk's latest hot streak is the sure sign that he's figured it out and will now be a much better regular, Gurriel keeps getting tabbed for ascent only to show that he can't maintain that highest level of play for the long term.

He is what he is at this point: A solid, playable everyday bat for the bottom half of the order who's capable of going on an absolute tear for a few weeks at a time, but also means living with deep slump weeks that offset. And he is, by all seeming evidence and accounts, a good clubhouse guy that his teammates like and who keeps the guys loose and engaged. That's a useful player to have even if we're not pronouncing him as having broken out or being on the ascent.

If I'm management I'm not looking to trade him in any deal less than the acquisition of a star-level 2B/3B type guy if he is the difference between gutting the prospect cupboard and sending maybe only 1 or 2 meaningful names. But just because I'm willing to put him in a deal like that doesn't mean I'm actively shopping him with an eye on trading him for whatever the best deal I can get is.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Gurriel's numbers were worse in 2021 than in the two previous seasons. He played more games but was less effective in those games than he had been previously in his career. I don't see why this is so complicated.

If a guy hits 18 HR in 50 games one year and then hits 20 HR in 150 games the next, would you say he was a better HR hitter the second year?

For HR sure, but then what was his S/O ratio, how many BB, how many XBH, runners in scoring position, was he clutch or not. I base a player off a full season not half a season, because that's just to small of a sample size to get accurate numbers.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

He had an inconsistent season which can be just as annoying as a bad season. At least the bad guy will get benched or waived or something. Inconsistent players can drag it out a long time as everyone waits for the guy to FINALLY round into form. Unless the player goes on an absolute tear like Springer did, scoring an entire game's worth runs all by himself at times game after game for a week, the guy will probably cause as many losses as he wins later. Thankfully, Gurriel's hotstreak came when it mattered, and it's not like he isn't young enough to potentially get it together. Not like we have a better option to replace him.



Then say something he can't refute. Resorting to snark just makes YOU look bad, not him.

Editing replies and comments to fit your narrative is allowed on this forum, interesting wasn't allowed on the one I was on before, shows what type of personn YOU are though.

 

[Bjindaho]

Here's a fun one. Toronto has actively been asking about vaccination status because the exemption is ending Jan 15, but any unvaccinated players won't be allowed in the country.

Depending on circumstances, there could be some visiting players who don't get to play in Toronto if they are unwilling.

 

[TGB]

Frankly, the whole water bottles thing alone makes Gurriel worth keeping. Hey, these games are supposed to be entertaining.

Editing replies and comments to fit your narrative is allowed on this forum, interesting wasn't allowed on the one I was on before, shows what type of personn YOU are though.

The type of person who prefers concision, thus quoting only that text which is pertinent to the point I'm addressing?

 

[phillipmike]

Jays expected to sign 16 year old Cuban catcher Maikel Minoso when the IFA period opens.

 

[djdev]

Jays expected to sign 16 year old Cuban catcher Maikel Minoso when the IFA period opens.

lets hope he turns out as well as a prospect as the last catcher we signed honestly im more interested in these signings than the draft typically. we have gotten some insane players in the past without having to use draft picks, as long as we keep hitting on these guys we can trade prospects for established players like ramirez etc without much worry.

 

[The Nemesis]

lets hope he turns out as well as a prospect as the last catcher we signed honestly im more interested in these signings than the draft typically. we have gotten some insane players in the past without having to use draft picks, as long as we keep hitting on these guys we can trade prospects for established players like ramirez etc without much worry.

If I'm not mistaken Moreno was signed as an infielder and converted to catcher.