Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[kb]

 

[phillipmike]

I don't like the type of contract Nimmo is going to get, but I am of the boat where I would rather just get Zimmer back for peanuts over paying a similar glove first, left handed no bat who is a man made of glass like Kiermaier and defensive downgrades in Brantley/Conforto compared to Teo. Gallo also strikes out what, like 80% of his PA's?

I’ll give you Brantley and Conforto because we don’t know how they respond after the shoulder surgery but you really underestimate these guys.

Zimmer's career best OPS+ was 85. Kiermaier's career average is 98 - there really isnt a comparison. Kiermaier can start for you for 80-100 games, Zimmer is a 5th OFer who started 6 times for the Jays from July to September (2 starts came in September after the Jays clinched a WC spot).

Gallo's career BB/K (0.40) is almost double as Teoscar's (0.25). Gallo's career OBP of .325 is better than Teoscar's of .319.

Career WAR/162:
Teoscar: 2.7 bWAR or 2.7 fWAR
Gallo: 3.2 bWAR or 3.3 fWAR

Teo brings a better average and more power but Gallo is the better defender than Teo and he will benefit more from no shift. The Yankees also messed with Gallo's swing which is why he went from being close to a 4 WAR player to now replacement level.

UZR/150:
Brantley: 8.0 in LF
Kiermaier: 3.1 in CF
Nimmo: -0.5 in CF
Gallo: -1.9 in CF/RF/LF
Teoscar: -6.3 in RF/LF
Conforto: -6.8 in CF/LF/RF

Average games missed per season since 2018;
Kiermaier: 59 games
Conforto; 51 games
Nimmo: 47 games
Brantley: 43 games
Gallo: 35 games

Brantley is seen as injury prone but he has missed less games than Nimmo. Conforto missed an entire 162 and on average he is right there with Nimmo in games missed. Only Kiermaier is well above Nimmo in games missed and its only 12 games. Nimmo is just as injury prone as any guy on this list.

WAR last 3 seasons average over 650 PAs:
Kiermaier: 5,3 bWAR
Nimmo: 5.0 bWAR
Brantley: 3.5 bWAR
Gallo: 3.4 bWAR
Conforto: 3.0 bWAR

Age:
Brantley: 36
Kiermaier: 33
Nimmo: 30
Conforto: 30
Gallo: 29

Nimmo is the best player but he isnt 5-6 times better and has durability issues too. For me it is risk reward. I rather save $100M+, draft picks, IFA money and have financial flexibility than lock up Nimmo on a marginal upgrade over the guys listed. You're buying high on Nimmo whereas you're buying low on the other 4 - low risk and potential high reward. With Nimmo its high risk and high reward but i think in 2-3 years you have the same problem as you do with Springer, Nimmo cant stay healthy and his CF metrics decline.

Nimmo is likely going to get an AAV of $25M - im pretty sure you can get 1 of Kiermaier or Conforto and 1 of Gallo or Brantley for $25M. And that is where the real value is - similar production for a similar price with less risk and commitment.

Counterpoint: sign the star OF and let him play CF in 2023 and work on trading for a long-term CF who can push both Nimmo/Springer to a corner sometime in the next two years.

That is a better option, but i still dont like the 5-6 years on a 30 year old CF. You're paying the CF premium for him in free agency only to move him 2-3 years from now.

I'm just not a Nimmo fan for multiple years. I think he is similar to Gallo and Conforto but you are paying 5-6 times more just because hit free agency at the right time.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Still say we go after Koda or maena on the pitching front

 

[GoonieFace]

I’ll give you Brantley and Conforto because we don’t know how they respond after the shoulder surgery but you really underestimate these guys.

Zimmer's career best OPS+ was 85. Kiermaier's career average is 98 there really isnt a comparable. Kiermaier can start for you for 80-100 games, Zimmer is a 5th OFer who started 6 times for the Jays from July to September (2 starts came in September after the Jays clinched a WC spot).

Average games missed per season since 2018;
Kiermaier: 59 games
Conforto; 51 games
Nimmo: 47 games
Brantley: 43 games
Gallo: 35 games

Brantley is seen as injury prone but he has missed less games than Nimmo. Conforto missed an entire 162 and on average he is right there with Nimmo in games missed. Only Kiermaier is well above Nimmo in games missed and its only 12 games. Nimmo is just as injury prone as any guy on this list.

WAR last 3 seasons average over 650 PAs:
Kiermaier: 5,3 bWAR
Nimmo: 5.0 bWAR
Brantley: 3.5 bWAR
Gallo: 3.4 bWAR
Conforto: 3.0 bWAR

Age:
Brantley: 36
Kiermaier: 33
Nimmo: 30
Conforto: 30
Gallo: 29

Nimmo is the best player but he isnt 5-6 times better and has durability issues too. For me it is risk reward. I rather save $100M+, draft picks, IFA money and have financial flexibility than lock up Nimmo on a marginal upgrade over the guys listed. You're buying high on Nimmo whereas you're buying low on the other 4 - low risk and potential high reward. With Nimmo its high risk and high reward but i think in 2-3 years you have the same problem as you do with Springer, Nimmo cant stay healthy and his CF metrics decline.

Nimmo is likely going to get an AAV of $25M - im pretty sure you can get 1 of Kiermaier or Conforto and 1 of Gallo or Brantley for $25M. And that is where the real value is - similar production for a similar price with less risk and commitment.



That is a better option, but i still dont like the 5-6 years on a 30 year old CF. You're paying the CF premium for him in free agency only to move him 2-3 years from now.

I'm just not a Nimmo fan for multiple years. I think he is similar to Gallo and Conforto but you are paying 5-6 times more just because hit free agency at the right time.

I think this makes more sense as well. A combination of Gallo/Kiermaier/Brantley would be fine, as long as they improve their starting rotation

 

[phillipmike]

I think this makes more sense as well. A combination of Gallo/Kiermaier/Brantley would be fine, as long as they improve their starting rotation

Yeah i agree. I forgot to mention that i prefer to use the money and assets (prospects) on quality arms which is why i'm willing to grab short term OFers.

 

[Nineteen67]

He'd have the speed and range, but does he have the arm for it?

On the bright side, if he’s throwing the ball from the outfield someone might have a chance to catch it.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I’ll give you Brantley and Conforto because we don’t know how they respond after the shoulder surgery but you really underestimate these guys.

Zimmer's career best OPS+ was 85. Kiermaier's career average is 98 there really isnt a comparable. Kiermaier can start for you for 80-100 games, Zimmer is a 5th OFer who started 6 times for the Jays from July to September (2 starts came in September after the Jays clinched a WC spot).

Average games missed per season since 2018;
Kiermaier: 59 games
Conforto; 51 games
Nimmo: 47 games
Brantley: 43 games
Gallo: 35 games

Brantley is seen as injury prone but he has missed less games than Nimmo. Conforto missed an entire 162 and on average he is right there with Nimmo in games missed. Only Kiermaier is well above Nimmo in games missed and its only 12 games. Nimmo is just as injury prone as any guy on this list.

WAR last 3 seasons average over 650 PAs:
Kiermaier: 5,3 bWAR
Nimmo: 5.0 bWAR
Brantley: 3.5 bWAR
Gallo: 3.4 bWAR
Conforto: 3.0 bWAR

Age:
Brantley: 36
Kiermaier: 33
Nimmo: 30
Conforto: 30
Gallo: 29

Nimmo is the best player but he isnt 5-6 times better and has durability issues too. For me it is risk reward. I rather save $100M+, draft picks, IFA money and have financial flexibility than lock up Nimmo on a marginal upgrade over the guys listed. You're buying high on Nimmo whereas you're buying low on the other 4 - low risk and potential high reward. With Nimmo its high risk and high reward but i think in 2-3 years you have the same problem as you do with Springer, Nimmo cant stay healthy and his CF metrics decline.

Nimmo is likely going to get an AAV of $25M - im pretty sure you can get 1 of Kiermaier or Conforto and 1 of Gallo or Brantley for $25M. And that is where the real value is - similar production for a similar price with less risk and commitment.



That is a better option, but i still dont like the 5-6 years on a 30 year old CF. You're paying the CF premium for him in free agency only to move him 2-3 years from now.

I'm just not a Nimmo fan for multiple years. I think he is similar to Gallo and Conforto but you are paying 5-6 times more just because hit free agency at the right time.

If the goal is run prevention, couldn’t you theoretically just play Zimmer out there every day? Cleveland played Myles Straw everyday. Jays have quality bats up and down the lineup to cover for a below average hitter in the 9th spot. Now, I don’t have all the numbers in front of me, and I don’t know how much better Straw is than Zimmer.

 

[GoonieFace]

Yeah i agree. I forgot to mention that i prefer to use the money and assets (prospects) on quality arms which is why i'm willing to grab short term OFers.

I’d even be willing to have JBJ back out there to be honest.

 

[phillipmike]

If the goal is run prevention, couldn’t you theoretically just play Zimmer out there every day? Cleveland played Myles Straw everyday. Jays have quality bats up and down the lineup to cover for a below average hitter in the 9th spot. Now, I don’t have all the numbers in front of me, and I don’t know how much better Straw is than Zimmer.

The difference is Myles Straw was close to a 3 WAR player last year and was a 3.2 WAR player in 2021. Something i think Kiermaier or Conforto can do.

To me its not just run production. You can get a guy like Zimmer who will give you great defense but no bat. So you are probably paying $1M for a negative WAR player. If Kiermaier or Conforto give you their averages over 100 games then you are probably paying $8-12M a year for a 2-2.5 WAR player which is a much better investment for a team with playoff aspirations.

Under no circumstances should a playoff team start a player like Zimmer for 80-100 games. Which is why i think it is better to go a few tiers up to players who have much better floors that will only cost you money for 1 or 2 years.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Manoah's first mistake is taking a guy like Kevin seriously.

Dude is literally a shitposter with an above average vocabulary that takes the piss out of everything in his videos. The only things you can take seriously from Kevin are his opinions on Arby's and Eddie Matthews.

That being said I appreciate his response all the same. You go, Big Puma.

Edit: also the thought of Manoah reading a tweet about Ross Atkins being locked in a trunk and thinking how to respond to it in a professional manner is a hilarious image.

 

[Woodman19]

To me its not just run production. You can get a guy like Zimmer who will give you great defense but no bat. So you are probably paying $1M for a negative WAR player. If Kiermaier or Conforto give you their averages over 100 games then you are probably paying $8-12M a year for a 2-2.5 WAR player which is a much better investment for a team with playoff aspirations.

Under no circumstances should a playoff team start a player like Zimmer for 80-100 games. Which is why i think it is better to go a few tiers up to players who have much better floors.

Who do you play in Center for the other 120 games Kiermaier is hurt for? Thats my issue with him, we are contending as you say, we shouldnt settle for brittle, old or washed up to fill out the roster.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Who do you play in Center for the other 120 games Kiermaier is hurt for? Thats my issue with him, we are contending as you say, we shouldnt settle for brittle, old or washed up to fill out the roster.

Won't Springer still play center? I thought the main goal was to get a guy who can eat into his innings there.

Of course it would be great if he didn't need to play there short of injury.

 

[Ale Brew]

Who do you play in Center for the other 120 games Kiermaier is hurt for? Thats my issue with him, we are contending as you say, we shouldnt settle for brittle, old or washed up to fill out the roster.

Unfortunately Nimmo seems just as brittle.

 

[Woodman19]

Unfortunately Nimmo seems just as brittle.

Yeah thats my issue with him as well.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Get that man and vlad locked up

 

[aingefan]

Plus we need to leave some fly balls to the corner OF’s. Kirk being the alpha male he is would probably track down everything line to line and call the others off.

Plus we need to leave some fly balls to the corner OF’s. Kirk being the alpha male he is would probably track down everything line to line and call the others off.

Counterpoint: he’s probably going to catch at the same time.

Which means a 7 man infield.

Might help the ground ballers.

 

[Hoverhand]

To be honest, I wonder if Bichette would make a good CF

He'd have the speed and range, but does he have the arm for it?

As long as they can convince him to always go for the cutoff man. No exceptions.

 

[phillipmike]

Nimmo in a Jays jersey for those who want to see this;

 

[Ale Brew]

Nimmo in a Jays jersey for those who want to see this;

View attachment 618729

Looks good!

 

[Canada4Gold]

I really like Gallo as a bounceback candidate as a 4th OF/platoon/someone DH's scenario where he gets like 500 PA over the course of a season. But he can't be the 3rd OF solution, and neither can Kiermaier, and Conforto doesn't sound all that exciting for that role either. 2 of them might work but it's very blah. Nimmo or a trade feels like a must.

I've very the other way on our pitching. I'm completely fine going into the season with White or Kikuchi as the 5th arm. They obviously need another one and it would be nice if it's Rodon, Senga or some great arm via trade, but if there's 1 big name acquisition I'd prefer it it to be the OF.

Entering the offseason I was very concerned about a Nimmo signing, but the way it has gone so far it has to be worth the risk.

 

[phillipmike]

Great thread on OF defense and reasons why i would move off of Gurriel too.

My perfect OF with who is available is Gallo(LF/CF/RF)/Brantley(LF/DH)-Kiermaier(CF)/Springer(CF/RF)











Springer to RF with Kiermaier in CF and Gallo in LF is a near elite defensive OF.

 

[Eyedea]

My perfect OF with who is available is Gallo(LF/CF/RF)/Brantley(LF/DH)-Kiermaier(CF)/Springer(CF/RF)



Springer to RF with Kiermaier in CF and Gallo in LF is a near elite defensive OF.

Not that I disagree with the premise of great teams having great defence, but the Astro's OAA contribution was heavily skewed to Jose Siri (traded), Chas McCormick (starter), and Jake Meyers (bench). Kyle Tucker is still very good defensively but if we're considering Gurriel poor then Alvarez/Brantley are also in a similar category. To be honest I'm not buying the dip on Gallo because I'm not interested in a three true outcome player. I'd rather trade for Yaz or Grisham.

 

[Discoverer]

Great thread on OF defense and reasons why i would move off of Gurriel too.

My perfect OF with who is available is Gallo(LF/CF/RF)/Brantley(LF/DH)-Kiermaier(CF)/Springer(CF/RF)











Springer to RF with Kiermaier in CF and Gallo in LF is a near elite defensive OF.

I really don't like that idea. Kiermaier had a 90 wRC+ last year. Gallo's was 85. I expect at least some rebound from Gallo, but some of that would likely be balanced out by a slight drop from Kiermaier. It obviously makes the defense a lot better, but I would argue it actually makes the team quite a bit worse overall.

That's why I think it's worthwhile to pay more for Nimmo: he improves the defense over Teo/Gurriel AND improves the offense. I love the idea of adding Nimmo while also trying to get a guy like Kiermaier as the 4th OF who gives them an "elite defense" lineup with Nimmo/Kiermaier/Springer in the OF now and then.

 

[ER89]

I really don't like that idea. Kiermaier had a 90 wRC+ last year. Gallo's was 85. I expect at least some rebound from Gallo, but some of that would likely be balanced out by a slight drop from Kiermaier. It obviously makes the defense a lot better, but I would argue it actually makes the team quite a bit worse overall.

That's why I think it's worthwhile to pay more for Nimmo: he improves the defense over Teo/Gurriel AND improves the offense. I love the idea of adding Nimmo while also trying to get a guy like Kiermaier as the 4th OF who gives them an "elite defense" lineup with Nimmo/Kiermaier/Springer in the OF now and then.

As things stand, assume no Nimmo, do we still like the teo trade?