Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Discoverer]

As things stand, assume no Nimmo, do we still like the teo trade?

It doesn't necessarily have to be Nimmo, but if it's not I want to see a trade for a good, young, controllable OF who can play CF. If they replace him with guys like Kiermaier and Gallo, I won't be thrilled about it.

 

[kb]

It doesn't necessarily have to be Nimmo, but if it's not I want to see a trade for a good, young, controllable OF who can play CF. If they replace him with guys like Kiermaier and Gallo, I won't be thrilled about it.

Imagine trying to sell your fanbase on being a bonafide WS contender with essentially 4 part time (Springer's injury history) OF's, 2 of whom are below 100 OPS+, and another one just above.

 

[phillipmike]

Not that I disagree with the premise of great teams having great defence, but the Astro's OAA contribution was heavily skewed to Jose Siri (traded), Chas McCormick (starter), and Jake Meyers (bench). Kyle Tucker is still very good defensively but if we're considering Gurriel poor then Alvarez/Brantley are also in a similar category. To be honest I'm not buying the dip on Gallo because I'm not interested in a three true outcome player. I'd rather trade for Yaz or Grisham.

Not really, Alavrez had a great year defensively he led the Astros in UZR/150. Brantley was good too, in fact all of the Astros players were above average even with Siri gone;

UZR/150:
Alvarez: 19.7
Siri: 19.2
Brantley: 8.0
Tucker: 4.5
Mancini: 4.0
Dubon: 2.2
Meyers: 2.2
McCormick: 0.2

Pretty much everyone was average or well above average in the field.

 

[trellaine201]

Imagine trying to sell your fanbase on being a bonafide WS contender with essentially 4 part time (Springer's injury history) OF's, 2 of whom are below 100 OPS+, and another one just above.

I am more concerned with pitching.

 

[Woodman19]

I am more concerned with pitching.

fun fact, better outfield defense = better pitching since it reduces the number of singles and doubles we give up.

 

[GreytWun]

Gallo and Kiermaier give us two giant black holes in the lineup. No thanks.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I am more concerned with pitching.

Have they, or are they going to, address the issue of not having power arms in the bullpen? Relying on "contact out" pitchers again seems like asking for trouble. Being able to strike batters out when there are runners in scoring position rather than counting on the defense to get to balls to get those same outs isn't something I want to see again.

 

[Woodman19]

Gallo and Kiermaier give us two giant black holes in the lineup. No thanks.

I don't think Jays fans are ready for 40% strikeout rates.

 

[Ale Brew]

Have they, or are they going to, address the issue of not having power arms in the bullpen? Relying on "contact out" pitchers again seems like asking for trouble. Being able to strike batters out when there are runners in scoring position rather than counting on the defense to get to balls to get those same outs isn't something I want to see again.

Swanson struck out over 12 per 9 innings last year

 

[phillipmike]

I really don't like that idea. Kiermaier had a 90 wRC+ last year. Gallo's was 85. I expect at least some rebound from Gallo, but some of that would likely be balanced out by a slight drop from Kiermaier. It obviously makes the defense a lot better, but I would argue it actually makes the team quite a bit worse overall.

That's why I think it's worthwhile to pay more for Nimmo: he improves the defense over Teo/Gurriel AND improves the offense. I love the idea of adding Nimmo while also trying to get a guy like Kiermaier as the 4th OF who gives them an "elite defense" lineup with Nimmo/Kiermaier/Springer in the OF now and then.

I'm just more risk averse than anyone. I'm very conservative when it comes to free agents. I even look at our biggest deals and they have all aged pretty poorly so far except for Gausman and Springer;

Morales: paid $33M for 0.8 WAR
Roark: paid $24M for -0.6 WAR
Ryu: paid $80M for 2.1 WAR
Kikuchi: paid $16M so far for -1.1 WAR
Berrios: paid $10M so far for -0.5 WAR
Grichuk: paid $33M for 1.9 WAR

Gausman looks great but its year 1 of 5. Berrios should bounce back but he has 6 more years if he doesnt. Springer has given you 6.4 WAR at $53M but with WAR at $9M per WAR he is giving you $57M - dont anticipate that ages well over the final 4 years.

We have been much better on our 1-2 year deals;

Semien: $18M for 7.3 WAR
Ray: $8M for 6.6 WAR
Oh: $1.25M for 1 WAR
Hudson: $1.5M for 1.3 WAR
Galvis: $4M for 3.0 WAR
Shoemaker: $7.7M for 1.7 WAR
Phelps: League minimum for 1.1 WAR

And then you have some not great to bad 1 year deals; Estrada (2nd time), Granderson, Garcia, Axford, Chatwood, Shaw etc.

But thats the thing, they are 1 year deals, fall off the books and doesnt hurt you. Which is why i like Kiermaier, Brantley and or Gallo. If Nimmo regresses or gets hurt, well you stuck with it for another 4-5 years and it limits your spending.

Now this doesnt bode well for me because i advocated for signing JBJ (-1 WAR) over Springer (6.4 WAR) and Ray (2.1 WAR) over Gausman (3 WAR) and i said i liked the Kikuchi and Berrios deal all things considered. But i tend to stay away from long term deals because you have what is happening now; Ryu and Grichuk took away $30M of spending on the 2023 roster.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I want nothing to do with Gallo.

Kiermaier im not super hot on either but at least you know what you're getting with him: a gold glove level defender with occasional spurts of above average hitting but generally around league average if not slightly below.

Gallo looked legitimately broken in New York and didn't get much better in LA either.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Not really, Alavrez had a great year defensively he led the Astros in UZR/150. Brantley was good too, in fact all of the Astros players were above average even with Siri gone;

UZR/150:
Alvarez: 19.7
Siri: 19.2
Brantley: 8.0
Tucker: 4.5
Mancini: 4.0
Dubon: 2.2
Meyers: 2.2
McCormick: 0.2

Pretty much everyone was average or well above average in the field.

UZR is a completely different metric than what the twitter OP was referencing. And yes, Alvarez posted a high UZR because his arm is elite, not because he has range. I don’t think anyone out there would classify him or Brantley as being above average or even elite defensively.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Yup that's definitely Kevin. According to him Vladimir Guerrero Jr has already hit "the longest home run i've seen maybe ever" like 10 different times in his videos.

It was never anything other than a joke. Credit to him for drawing some eyes on himself since TSN apparently picked up the tweet lol.

 

[phillipmike]

Imagine trying to sell your fanbase on being a bonafide WS contender with essentially 4 part time (Springer's injury history) OF's, 2 of whom are below 100 OPS+, and another one just above.

What I'm proposing (Gallo and Kiermaier with Springer and Gurriel) is essentially what happened last year. The Jays had 4 OF (Springer, Teo, Gurriel and Tapia) who 400+ PAs + Zimmer and JBJ.

2022 Jays OFs: 111 wRC+ and 7.7 fWAR across 2225 PA
2023 DC Projections for Springer, Gurriel, Gallo and Kiermaier: 110 wRC+ and 8.3 fWAR across 2072 PAs

And Gallo and Kiermaier gives you near elite defense in one corner OF spot and CF plus Springer is a big upgrade on Teo, Gurriel and Tapia.

Essentially the same offense with top end defense is a huge upgrade on Springer who was good in CF with atrocious defense from Tapia, Gurriel and Teo.

 

[Woodman19]

What I'm proposing (Gallo and Kiermaier with Springer and Gurriel) is essentially what happened last year. The Jays had 4 OF (Springer, Teo, Gurriel and Tapia) who 400+ PAs + Zimmer and JBJ.

2022 Jays OFs: 111 wRC+ and 7.7 fWAR across 2225 PA
2023 DC Projections for Springer, Gurriel, Gallo and Kiermaier: 110 wRC+ and 8.3 fWAR across 2072 PAs

And Gallo and Kiermaier gives you near elite defense in one corner OF spot and CF plus Springer is a big upgrade on Teo, Gurriel and Tapia.

Essentially the same offense with top end defense is a huge upgrade on Springer who was good in CF with atrocious defense from Tapia, Gurriel and Teo.

I couldnt handle all the strikeouts.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I couldnt handle all the strikeouts.

Yeah. If people thought Bo and Teoscar drove them up the wall with their plate discipline? Just imagine this fanbase having to watch Gallo lol.

 

[phillipmike]

I couldnt handle all the strikeouts.

2022 OF Strikeouts: 474

2023 Projected Strikeouts: 491

I would trade 17 extra strikeouts for 2 more lefty bats in the lineup and improved defense as a wise man just said;

fun fact, better outfield defense = better pitching since it reduces the number of singles and doubles we give up.

 

[Woodman19]

2022 OF Strikeouts: 474

2023 Projected Strikeouts: 491

I would trade 17 extra strikeouts for 2 more lefty bats in the lineup and improved defense as a wise man just said;

Gallo and Kiermaier is the hill you wanna die on? lol

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

If outfield defense and left handedness are the Jays targets, sign Nimmo and trade for Reynolds. Reynolds would be plus in LF and Nimmo is at least average in center. I wonder if we could get Kwan from the Guardians. It would probably take Kirk or Moreno though, with Cleveland adding.

 

[phillipmike]

Gallo and Kiermaier is the hill you wanna die on? lol

Its a discussion board, im not dying on anything. Im just trying to point out players that are good buy lows that can improve the team.

Every problem you have with these guys, i address them, and you come up with another.

 

[Woodman19]

Its a discussion board, im not dying on anything. Im just trying to point out players that are good buy lows that can improve the team.

Every problem you have with these guys i address and you come up with another.

Hard to say what a buy low is, they could be getting offers. Dropping $30 million next year on Gallo and Kiermaier doesnt really feel like a "buy low"

 

[phillipmike]

UZR is a completely different metric than what the twitter OP was referencing. And yes, Alvarez posted a high UZR because his arm is elite, not because he has range. I don’t think anyone out there would classify him or Brantley as being above average or even elite defensively.

My mistake. But i think the point holds true. When the playoffs came around Houston had Tucker (5 OAA) in RF and McCormick (4 OAA) in CF and they are good fielders.

They were a strong group in DRS:

Tucker: 14
Alvarez: 5
Meyers: 4
Brantley: 2
McCormick: 0

 

[phillipmike]

Hard to say what a buy low is, they could be getting offers. Dropping $30 million next year on Gallo and Kiermaier doesnt really feel like a "buy low"

I doubt either gets $15M, if they did then no, it isnt buy low.

I have them both around $8-12M at the most. I have no problems paying $16-24M on both combined.

Fangraphs has Kiermaier at roughly $9M AAV topping out at $10M. Gallo didnt even make the list so i assume he is lower than $9M.

 

[Woodman19]

I doubt either gets $15M, if they did then no, it isnt buy low.

I have them both around $8-12M at the most. I have no problems paying $16-24M on both combined.

Fangraphs has Kiermaier at roughly $9M AAV topping out at $10M. Gallo didnt even make the list so i assume he is lower than $9M.

we live in a world that Bellinger makes $17.5 for one year.