Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Bjindaho]

I don't really disagree. I guess it could come down to a game of chicken if Green hasn't fully established himself by the end of the year... Jays want him back but think the 3 years is too much, so they decline in hopes that Green picks up his player option. Green thinks he can do better, so he declines, too. Jays still want him back, so they pick up the last option.

I love creative contract/options structure like this, even if there's a pretty narrow band of outcomes that would bring it down to the last option. Chances are he's either good enough that the Jays pick up the first option or bad enough that he wants to pick up his end of it.

I think there's a mistake in the numbers.

The Jays option is 3/27 with a potential 3M bonus.

Green's option is 1 year at 6.25M with 2M in bonuses.

The third option only makes sense if it is something like 8, 8, 6M buyout or club option for 8.

 

[Hoverhand]

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the Jays cheat code for solving the swing and miss issue in the BP is going after the low velo guys who can still miss bats instead of overpaying for high velo guys that the fanbase wants.

Like Swanson, Green's FB velo is below 95, K% in the 90th percentile.

 

[thehockeysong]

I think this is probably the most depth we have had in the pen that I can remember going into a season. There is a real possibility of one of the younger org guys popping in camp as well that could really take the pen up another level.

This is true - but another side benefit it made me think of, is that the depth puts less pressure on the org to bring starting pitching prospects from the minors into the pen. A thin pen might mean sacrificing some development to try to plug a hole that these players hopefully plug instead.

 

[Eyedea]

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the Jays cheat code for solving the swing and miss issue in the BP is going after the low velo guys who can still miss bats instead of overpaying for high velo guys that the fanbase wants.

Like Swanson, Green's FB velo is below 95, K% in the 90th percentile.

Both had 90+ percentile velo though. At least Swanson may not need it as much because his sequencing and placement was very good last season. It would be nice for Green to get back into that consistent 96-97 velo because if he has that with his elite spin he'll be unhittable.

Bonus is that he can go a full time through the order if needed.

 

[Eyedea]

This is true - but another side benefit it made me think of, is that the depth puts less pressure on the org to bring starting pitching prospects from the minors into the pen. A thin pen might mean sacrificing some development to try to plug a hole that these players hopefully plug instead.

I think they may have made their mind on Pearson, and I'm hopeful he can stick in the pen. I'm also not completely sold on Hatch or Francis as starters anymore.

But yes, someone like Zulu should probably stick at SP depth rather than quickly called up to make an impact in the pen.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the Jays cheat code for solving the swing and miss issue in the BP is going after the low velo guys who can still miss bats instead of overpaying for high velo guys that the fanbase wants.

Like Swanson, Green's FB velo is below 95, K% in the 90th percentile.

Green was only below right before tj

 

[phillipmike]

Enough to grab Grossman and Moore. Can get rid of some salary by moving guys like Richard, Thornton and potential Cimber.

 

[trellaine201]

Did Dexter Fowler play in Toronto?? Hmm. Every time I have seen his photo he is wearing a Blue Jay hat.

 

[Discoverer]

Enough to grab Grossman and Moore. Can get rid of some salary by moving guys like Richard, Thornton and potential Cimber.

I've seen Cimber casually thrown into trade proposals a few times this offseason and I don't get it. He's a really good, cheap reliever who can reliably and effectively eat innings. He's been pushed down the depth chart, but he's an important part of the pen.

 

[Woodman19]

I've seen Cimber casually thrown into trade proposals a few times this offseason and I don't get it. He's a really good, cheap reliever who can reliably and effectively eat innings. He's been pushed down the depth chart, but he's an important part of the pen.

When Cimber is on paper one of your weaker pen arms, you have a pretty solid pen.

 

[canucksfan]

Matt Gage dfa’d

 

[phillipmike]

Where do I sign up?

11 hitters over 100 wRC+ and we are in the money if Kirk is our 7th be hitter with a 125 wRC+

And I’ll buy a Varsho and Belt jersey if they have anything close to a 132 wRC+ (3rd best on the team) which is substantial because I only have one sports jersey; Roy Halladay.

 

[phillipmike]

I've seen Cimber casually thrown into trade proposals a few times this offseason and I don't get it. He's a really good, cheap reliever who can reliably and effectively eat innings. He's been pushed down the depth chart, but he's an important part of the pen.

For me it isn’t about getting rid of him. Just looking at the options to me he might be the odd guy out. And it doesn’t help that he is rated as a 6 on the BTV site which makes him a valuable trade chip.

The pen still needs a lefty too. At the moment you have;

1. Manoah
2. Gausman
3. Berrios
4. Bassitt
5. Kikuchi

6. Romano
7. Swanson
8. Garcia
9. Bass
10. Mayza
11. White
12. Cimber
13. Richards

14. Lefty via trade or free agency
15. Pop

At the moment Cimber is your 5th best righty in the pen. You still need a lefty who will take Richards spot. I prefer to get something for Richards but if you lose him for nothing I’m not losing sleep. Cimber on the other hand is someone you can’t lose for nothing so a trade might make sense if you can get something of value. Not to mention you save $3M which can be valuable staying under that 2nd tax bracket if you add a lefty reliever and a 4th OF.

When Ryu and Green come back. Not everyone will be healthy or performing so it isn’t a forgone conclusion he is gone.

But if Cimber is your 5th best righty reliever, maybe 6th when Green is back and maybe 7th if Pop performs, I think he might be the odd guy out. Not to mention our three best pen options in the minors are righties; Pearson, Zulueta and Juenger.

 

[Eyedea]

Since 2021 Cimber’s been elite against lefties. Same goes for Swanson (and Romano). Lefty relievers just aren’t as valuable or necessary anymore since the three batter rule came into effect.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Kikuchi is a lefty. I suspect he begins the year in the pen and White in the rotation. If you add a good lefty Mayza has options so you could in theory stash him until injuries arise. If things get really full Cimber has options too, though I don’t expect that to happen. I think they’re going to try to avoid having to dump Richards and I don’t think Cimber is going anywhere

 

[Discoverer]

For me it isn’t about getting rid of him. Just looking at the options to me he might be the odd guy out. And it doesn’t help that he is rated as a 6 on the BTV site which makes him a valuable trade chip.

The pen still needs a lefty too. At the moment you have;

1. Manoah
2. Gausman
3. Berrios
4. Bassitt
5. Kikuchi

6. Romano
7. Swanson
8. Garcia
9. Bass
10. Mayza
11. White
12. Cimber
13. Richards

14. Lefty via trade or free agency
15. Pop

At the moment Cimber is your 5th best righty in the pen. You still need a lefty who will take Richards spot. I prefer to get something for Richards but if you lose him for nothing I’m not losing sleep. Cimber on the other hand is someone you can’t lose for nothing so a trade might make sense if you can get something of value. Not to mention you save $3M which can be valuable staying under that 2nd tax bracket if you add a lefty reliever and a 4th OF.

When Ryu and Green come back. Not everyone will be healthy or performing so it isn’t a forgone conclusion he is gone.

But if Cimber is your 5th best righty reliever, maybe 6th when Green is back and maybe 7th if Pop performs, I think he might be the odd guy out. Not to mention our three best pen options in the minors are righties; Pearson, Zulueta and Juenger.

I think Cimber is roughly on par with Garcia and Bass.

When it comes to pure run prevention, he's been on of the best in the game... over the last three years, 131 relievers have thrown at least 100 innings. He's 15th with a 2.64 ERA.

I think he gets overlooked because he does it in a weird way and he's a contact management rather than swing-and-miss guy, but he's one of the more effective relievers in the game.

 

[canucksfan]

What do you think the biggest weakness with the team as is? For me it’s tough to pick.

 

[dredeye]

What do you think the biggest weakness with the team as is? For me it’s tough to pick.

5th starter/ss defence. We are in pretty good shape

 

[canucksfan]

5th starter/ss defence. We are in pretty good shape

I was thinking of injuries to the OF is a concern although the depth is there to give guys rest days.

 

[Dr.Funk]

I was thinking of injuries to the OF is a concern although the depth is there to give guys rest days.

I mean the defensive quality drops but I think when you can still plug a Merrifield or Biggio in there that's better quality depth players than most teams.

 

[phillipmike]

Since 2021 Cimber’s been elite against lefties. Same goes for Swanson (and Romano). Lefty relievers just aren’t as valuable or necessary anymore since the three batter rule came into effect.

I think Cimber is roughly on par with Garcia and Bass.

When it comes to pure run prevention, he's been on of the best in the game... over the last three years, 131 relievers have thrown at least 100 innings. He's 15th with a 2.64 ERA.

I think he gets overlooked because he does it in a weird way and he's a contact management rather than swing-and-miss guy, but he's one of the more effective relievers in the game.

I agree, I'm not saying Cimber is bad nor would i want to move him. I'm just assuming the reports are true that the Jays are looking for a lefty reliever and its a numbers game. I view Garcia and Bass as backend guys who can fill in for Romano and Swanson. Cimber is more of a middle inning guy for me which is easier to replace.

And if someone asked me to rank pen options, the first to move out is Richards and 2nd for me is Cimber, not just because of play but because of value for our current middle inning guys;

Cimber 5.2
Pop: 2.6
Richards: -0.6

If any of this is worth anything in the real world, you could get something really good back Cimber.

Kikuchi is a lefty. I suspect he begins the year in the pen and White in the rotation. If you add a good lefty Mayza has options so you could in theory stash him until injuries arise. If things get really full Cimber has options too, though I don’t expect that to happen. I think they’re going to try to avoid having to dump Richards and I don’t think Cimber is going anywhere

Though i will disagree re: Kikuchi. If no other moves are made, Kikuchi is starting in the rotation. They didnt pay him $33M to only give him 19 starts. Still a lot of potential, high velo and a full off-season with the Jays staff and training facility should give him a better chance. Also doesnt hurt to have a hard throwing strikeout lefty in the rotation, especially in between 2 righties who dont strikeout a lot. Also easier to turn a starter into a pen guy than trying to build up a pen guy into a starter. White, like Stripling is used to the swingman role so he would be in the pen for me. Now if the Jays add a better starter, then i agree, Kikuchi to the pen makes sense.

 

[phillipmike]

4. Gabriel Moreno, C, Arizona Diamondbacks​

Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Hit: 60/65, Game Power: 40/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 60/60

Type: Well-rounded hit-over-power backstop

Reminds me of: The first two MLB seasons of J.T. Realmuto's career

The Orioles have the best farm system in baseball, but after landing Moreno in an offseason trade that sent outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto, Arizona has two of the top three prospects in the sport -- and both are ready for the big leagues right now.

The main reason there's a tier break here is that Moreno offers premium ability, but in a more subtle package that a fan might not notice right away. Most importantly, Moreno is a definite catcher. He has advanced feel in all aspects of the position, grading out above average as a defender, thrower, and athlete behind the plate with rare speed for the position. He also has a rare, plus-plus ability to put the bat on the ball and a good enough approach (call it average pitch selection) that his contact skills show up in his raw stat line. Some advanced bat-to-ball prospects fall into bad habits against weak pitching in the minors -- swinging at anything close because they can hit it -- that creates issues against big league pitching; that isn't the case here.

Moreno falls short of the 65 FV tier because his raw power is merely average -- and given his style of hitting, it may play a notch below that in games: somewhere in the 8-15 homer area annually. The value of six-plus years of control of a big league ready catcher with an above-average glove and offensive package is enormous, when a 2.0 WAR season (i.e. a solid, low-end starter at any other position) would be in the top dozen catchers. With any growth at all, he'll be battling J.T. Realmuto, Sean Murphy, Will Smith, and Willson Contreras for NL All-Star spots every year. I mention Realmuto as a comp since the athleticism is comparable and Realmuto had a power spike in his third full MLB year; the tools are here for Moreno to make a similar leap.

Pretty impressive that the Diamondbacks have 3 top 10 guys; 2. Carroll, 4. Moreno and 8. Lawler. Not to mention 2 more in the top 35; 21. Druw Jones and 32. Brandon Pfaadt and another in the top 100. And all are MLB ready except for Lawler and Jones.

26. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays​

Age: 20 | Bats: Left | Throws: Left

Type: Robbie Ray with a lower arm slot

In the 2020 draft, Tiedemann was an intriguing 17-year-old prep lefty whose price wasn't met. He opted to go to a SoCal junior college so that he'd be eligible again in 2021. I graded him as a second-rounder that spring -- he was sitting 90-92 with 55-grade stuff -- and was when he lasted until the 91st pick. He does a version of the trendy mound positioning I describe in Kyle Harrison's blurb, slinging from a low slot with good extension. Tiedemann has east/west-oriented stuff with a tailing fastball, sweepy slider and diving changeup.

Still a teenager, he broke out in 2022, making it to Double-A sitting in the mid-90's with a 70-grade fastball, 60 slider and 55-or-60 changeup, along with comparable control/command from his time in junior college. His velocity is still new, he's only made 18 pro appearances, and his command is a notch behind Harrison's. But with a strong 2023, he'll move up into that 60 FV tier with Harrison.

67. Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays​

Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Type: Easy plus power, some questions on contact and position

Martinez seems like a familiar kind of prospect. He has huge power and beats up on minor league pitching, but the question is if his contact qualities and pitch selection will be good enough at the big league level for him to hit to get to that power. If he doesn't, he's a high variance corner wrong-side-of-the-platoon guy who is just an OK defender. If he does, he'll hit 30 homers, give us fun bat flips and nobody will care much that he's just OK defensively. He'll be in Triple-A this year after hitting 30 homers in Double-A as a 20-year-old, so bet against him at your peril.

 

[phillipmike]

I like this list.

 

[Discoverer]

I agree, I'm not saying Cimber is bad nor would i want to move him. I'm just assuming the reports are true that the Jays are looking for a lefty reliever and its a numbers game. I view Garcia and Bass as backend guys who can fill in for Romano and Swanson. Cimber is more of a middle inning guy for me which is easier to replace.

And if someone asked me to rank pen options, the first to move out is Richards and 2nd for me is Cimber, not just because of play but because of value for our current middle inning guys;

Cimber 5.2
Pop: 2.6
Richards: -0.6

If any of this is worth anything in the real world, you could get something really good back Cimber.



Though i will disagree re: Kikuchi. If no other moves are made, Kikuchi is starting in the rotation. They didnt pay him $33M to only give him 19 starts. Still a lot of potential, high velo and a full off-season with the Jays staff and training facility should give him a better chance. Also doesnt hurt to have a hard throwing strikeout lefty in the rotation, especially in between 2 righties who dont strikeout a lot. Also easier to turn a starter into a pen guy than trying to build up a pen guy into a starter. White, like Stripling is used to the swingman role so he would be in the pen for me. Now if the Jays add a better starter, then i agree, Kikuchi to the pen makes sense.

Even if you were to sign the best available reliever (Moore), moving Cimber out in order to do so makes it, at best, a slight improvement to the pen in 2023. Maybe you get a depth prospect or something for Cimber, but there's no way that's worth it barring a huge overpay for Cimber.

If there are still pitching moves to be made (and I really doubt there are at this point) then they should be to add to the pen, not to shuffle out one of their better arms for a similar one. (Oddly enough, to follow up on Eyedea's comment about Cimber's reverse splits, Moore has reverse splits too. Cimber is actually better against lefties than Moore is, so if you believe matching up against tough lefties is an issue for the team, getting worse at it is a weird way to fix the problem.)

So if you really feel the need to keep adding to the pen, just sign Moore, DFA Richards, and call it a day.

Romano
Swanson
Garcia
Moore
Cimber
Bass
Mayza
White/Kikuchi

Pop, Pearson, Zulueta, etc. in Buffalo. Green joins in late in the season. Other than a questionable long-man, there's really no weak spot there. Swap out Cimber for Richards and there is.

 

[phillipmike]

Even if you were to sign the best available reliever (Moore), moving Cimber out in order to do so makes it, at best, a slight improvement to the pen in 2023. Maybe you get a depth prospect or something for Cimber, but there's no way that's worth it barring a huge overpay for Cimber.

If there are still pitching moves to be made (and I really doubt there are at this point) then they should be to add to the pen, not to shuffle out one of their better arms for a similar one. (Oddly enough, to follow up on Eyedea's comment about Cimber's reverse splits, Moore has reverse splits too. Cimber is actually better against lefties than Moore is, so if you believe matching up against tough lefties is an issue for the team, getting worse at it is a weird way to fix the problem.)

So if you really feel the need to keep adding to the pen, just sign Moore, DFA Richards, and call it a day.

Romano
Swanson
Garcia
Moore
Cimber
Bass
Mayza
White/Kikuchi

Pop, Pearson, Zulueta, etc. in Buffalo. Green joins in late in the season. Other than a questionable long-man, there's really no weak spot there. Swap out Cimber for Richards and there is.

Yeah i agree, im not giving Cimber away for a depth prospect. To move him now, I better get a good prospect or with his value he and something else could land a Max Kepler type OFer. There arent a lot of guys like Cimber available on the free agent market - he has 2 years of control and is 20th in fWAR among all relievers since 2021. I think he would be a very valuable piece to trade now with a lot of teams needing relievers. Which is why i would be receptive to trading him now to get a good return vs in season when you may have a crunch with Ryu and Green coming back.

Im also not so sure Richards is an easy DFA for the Jays.



If they didnt non tender him, i cant see them DFAing.