Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

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ESPN ranks the Jays #5 lineup

View attachment 642537

1. Padres
2. Cardinals
3. Braves
4. Astros
5. Jays

They listed gap to gap as an issue? They were 6th in oppo%. Even if Varsho is more pull dominant than Teo you look at that top 4 and that bottom 3, they all show tendencies to go centre/oppo.

Edit: and then they go ahead and list the Braves' and Dodgers' best trait as gap to gap lol.
 
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Maybe Bernard for the 5th outfielder role? He would have to beat out Lopez. Without another outfielder added, this is how I see it.

Outfield: Springer (R) Varsho (L) Kiermaier (L) Merrifield (R) Lopez (R)

Infield: Chapman (R) Bichette (R) Espinal (R) Biggio (L) Gurrerro (R) Belt (L)

Catcher: Kirk (R) Jansen (R)

infield depth minors: Barger
outfield depth minors: Bernard, Lukes

That's pretty good depth.

Bernard will have to beat out Lopez and Lukes for the last spot.
 


Jays will have to scrap one of their jerseys. Likely and hoping it will be the red one. The greys are my favourite and i know it isnt a popular opinion but i hate the baby blues. They are ugly.

I agree with this;



Another reason to keep the greys. Powder blues should only be kept for Kikuchi. Reds are for Berrios. Everyone else uses regular blue, white or greys



Would have never guessed that Berrios is the only starter to have a winning record with all jerseys.
 
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Jays will have to scrap one of their jerseys. Likely and hoping it will be the red one. The greys are my favourite and i know it isnt a popular opinion but i hate the baby blues. They are ugly.

I agree with this;



Another reason to keep the greys. Powder blues should only be kept for Kikuchi. Reds are for Berrios. Everyone else uses regular blue, white or greys



Would have never guessed that Berrios is the only starter to have a winning record with all jerseys.

Love the retro baby blues. Hate the reds
 


Jays will have to scrap one of their jerseys. Likely and hoping it will be the red one. The greys are my favourite and i know it isnt a popular opinion but i hate the baby blues. They are ugly.

Genuinely thought i was the only one. Greys are my favorites and i also dislike the baby blues with the dark blue helmet/hats.
 
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I like all the jerseys except the red ones, but baby blues need to stay because the hats are a thing of absolute beauty. There isn't a nicer hat in the MLB, and therefore there isn't a nicer hat in the world.

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Kinda surprised that with the new rules that they think 111 RBI's will lead the league.

I'm thinking that we will be looking in the 130's.
 
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Kinda surprised that with the new rules that they think 111 RBI's will lead the league.

I'm thinking that we will be looking in the 130's.


I haven't really looked into it but I would guess their predictions are just the median guess for everyone and not a leaguewide prediction as a whole. With hundreds of players variation will exist, some will get lucky, some unlucky, some will perform better than expected, some worse, but models aren’t used to try to figure out which ones will experience the ends of the variation spectrum rather the median for every player. It’s why you often see predictions where the numbers For high end guys are lower than you’d expect, and for low end guys higher than you might expect. For example the crazy Manoah/Kikuchi ERA guesses that was in one of the models posted early in the offseason, but I can’t remember which one.

While Vladdy’s median prediction is the highest, there’s probably 20 or 30 players above 100 and one of them will experience high variation and get to 130 or something. Likewise for pitchers you probably won’t find a model out there picking someone to have a sub 3 ERA despite the fact a few guys do it each year. Perhaps they have DeGrom doing it over 80 innings of something, he’s likely the best bet.
 
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