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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

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Mitchell's 1-25: TSN's Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects 2023: 25-1

I understand that Bonilla is younger and there's more risk there but I don't really get how you give Barriera 3.6 million and he's your #2 prospect and you give Bonilla 4.1 and he's all the way down at 12. I know the IFA guys usually debut lower but If he's worth 4.1 million to you surely he's worth more than a sub million bonus guy like Doughty(who I really like) I have Bonilla at the end of the Toman tier around 7 or so.

I didn't have any other major gripes with the rest of the list. Surprised the gap between Kasevich and Doughty was that large. While I like Doughty more and he had a better offensive early pro sample I think they're the same tier. Was surprised Machado made the top 25 with De Castro dropping off entirely. Machado was clearly better as De Castro's bat essentially didn't exist but Machado didn't really drop much at all after a marginal 1st pro season.
 
Canada4Gold said:
Mitchell's 1-25: TSN's Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects 2023: 25-1

I understand that Bonilla is younger and there's more risk there but I don't really get how you give Barriera 3.6 million and he's your #2 prospect and you give Bonilla 4.1 and he's all the way down at 12. I know the IFA guys usually debut lower but If he's worth 4.1 million to you surely he's worth more than a sub million bonus guy like Doughty(who I really like) I have Bonilla at the end of the Toman tier around 7 or so.

I didn't have any other major gripes with the rest of the list. Surprised the gap between Kasevich and Doughty was that large. While I like Doughty more and he had a better offensive early pro sample I think they're the same tier. Was surprised Machado made the top 25 with De Castro dropping off entirely. Machado was clearly better as De Castro's bat essentially didn't exist but Machado didn't really drop much at all after a marginal 1st pro season.
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Machado was really bad in the early going but once July came around he started to get hot. He was also much better batting lefty and may end up being better off just batting from that side.

I’m surprised Kasevich is pretty far down too. Elite bat control with the chance to stick at SS should be good enough to enter that top 10, even if he didn’t have a great debut like Doughty.
 
Otto Lopez is underrated and you wonder if he could be a option as our 4th OF'er.

Consistently hit for high average and gets on base at a very high clip.

Screenshot (507).png
 
weems said:
Otto Lopez is underrated and you wonder if he could be a option as our 4th OF'er.

Consistently hit for high average and gets on base at a very high clip.
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This does get me thinking where their head is at

Do you all think they're

1) Still haggling with Robbie Grossman and/or in trade talks for a platoon OF.
2) Maybe doing their due dilligence but plan A is to let Horwitz/Barger/Lopez/Bernard/Lukes battle for spots

I'd also pose the same question for relief pitching. Romano, Bass, Swanson, Garcia, Mayza, Richards, Cimber makes 7. Pop/Zulueta/Fernandez and the loser of the White/Kikuchi battle probably battling it out for 8.

I think they seem more done than maybe insiders are letting on.
 
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Hoverhand said:
This does get me thinking where their head is at

Do you all think they're

1) Still haggling with Robbie Grossman and/or in trade talks for a platoon OF.
2) Maybe doing their due dilligence but plan A is to let Horwitz/Barger/Lopez/Bernard/Lukes battle for spots

I'd also pose the same question for relief pitching. Romano, Bass, Swanson, Garcia, Mayza, Richards, Cimber makes 7. Pop/Zulueta/Fernandez and the loser of the White/Kikuchi battle probably battling it out for 8.

I think they seem more done than maybe insiders are letting on.
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Right now, I don't think any OF options are signing to be 4th OF (including Grossman). When we get closer, there may be options. In terms of fit, Profar might actually be a better fit, but we need someone who is okay with being 4th on the totem pole at best,

Right now, Plan A is Merrifield and Espinal playing against LHP.

In terms of the pen, there are going to be a few guys available for minor league deals. Also, Giles is still an interesting guy. On top of that, Barlow for the right price would be nice.

Also, as much as Mayza is listed as one of our key guys, he has massive splits and his slider has only been a plus pitch one year in his career.
 
Hoverhand said:
This does get me thinking where their head is at

Do you all think they're

1) Still haggling with Robbie Grossman and/or in trade talks for a platoon OF.
2) Maybe doing their due dilligence but plan A is to let Horwitz/Barger/Lopez/Bernard/Lukes battle for spots

I'd also pose the same question for relief pitching. Romano, Bass, Swanson, Garcia, Mayza, Richards, Cimber makes 7. Pop/Zulueta/Fernandez and the loser of the White/Kikuchi battle probably battling it out for 8.

I think they seem more done than maybe insiders are letting on.
Click to expand...

I still really hope they add a lefty-masher to round out the team, but it's nice that they have these options.

Horwitz, Barger, and Lukes are tough because they're lefties, so they don't fill much of a role on the team (and Barger and Horwitz are young and inexperienced enough that I think they should be playing every day in Buffalo, at least to start the year).

Lopez makes sense because of his versatility and a solid track record, and he has some pretty extreme splits the last couple years, so he could get somewhat regular time against lefties.

I know very little about Bernard other than he has elite speed, but I kinda want him to make it because of this:

 
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Pretty damn solid for a teenager who just played his first season of minor league ball. (Please don’t turn into a Nate Pearson)
 
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blogs.fangraphs.com

Whit Merrifield, King of Stealing Third

Stolen bases at third are the neglected middle child of steals, but at least Whit Merrifield gives third base his attention.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com

Good read here from Leo Morgenstern at Fangraphs. I knew Whit swiped a lot of bags in KC but I didn't realize just how fluid he was as a base runner. Some very aesthetically pleasing clips stashed in here.

edit: god I hope we cut him loose more, especially if he sticks in the bottom of the order
 
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canucksfan said:
I'd be leary of trading Brown. He's got great tools if they all click.
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Yeah, but he's about as raw as anyone with that kind of athletic toolset. Still hasn't shown any power, can't seem to get away from the strikeouts, and he's starting to get to the age where it needs to click and not be completely BABIP based for him to stay interesting.

Not that I don't like him as a prospect, but trading him for a backend bullpen piece with control wouldn't make me lose a second of sleep (obviously dependant on what else is going back). I'd be worried about losing Biggio who I still think has legit 3+ WAR upside with more playing time/being healthy again.
 
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Morgs said:
Yeah, but he's about as raw as anyone with that kind of athletic toolset. Still hasn't shown any power, can't seem to get away from the strikeouts, and he's starting to get to the age where it needs to click and not be completely BABIP based for him to stay interesting.

Not that I don't like him as a prospect, but trading him for a backend bullpen piece with control wouldn't make me lose a second of sleep (obviously dependant on what else is going back). I'd be worried about losing Biggio who I still think has legit 3+ WAR upside with more playing time/being healthy again.
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Same amount of control as Cimber. Are we certain the gap between them is Biggio + Brown? I'm not so sure.
 
Eyedea said:
Same amount of control as Cimber. Are we certain the gap between them is Biggio + Brown? I'm not so sure.
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Probably not, but BTV seems to think we'd be doing pretty well. I do think it heavily undervalues Biggio though, but I'm also fairly certain the guys value is at an all time low as well around the league.
 
Morgs said:
Probably not, but BTV seems to think we'd be doing pretty well. I do think it heavily undervalues Biggio though, but I'm also fairly certain the guys value is at an all time low as well around the league.
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BTV might be undervaluing/overvaluing Cimber/Barlow too. The upside of Cimber being able to suppress homeruns is pretty significant. He was getting hit hard a little bit last season but I'll bet his GB rate goes back to the high 40s low 50s. Barlow still posts elite whiff rates but how much of an issue is his reduced fb velo and drop in K rate (specifically against righties)?
 
ESPN ranks the Jays #5 lineup

Screenshot (511).png


1. Padres
2. Cardinals
3. Braves
4. Astros
5. Jays
 
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