Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[Canada4Gold]

Dave Stewart is Arizona's GM. To say that he does things differently is putting things mildly.

Any sane GM would take Stroman for Goldschmidt because of the ages and the likely output. It would be a deal that likely helps both teams right now.

Dave Stewart was fires sadly. Though I do wish we were able to fleece him before they fired him

 

[ChampsSince67]

or maybe people around here overrate other talent and underrate ours? Unless you think a 29 yr old 1B whos WRC+ went from 150, 160, 150 to 134, with negative defense, and is a 1B, i cant stress this enough.. over a top 20 young controlled SP? then sure theyre drunk..

but I'd think the Jays would be the drunk ones here

he has negative defense because of positional adjustments in WAR. Rizzo has negative defence.

GOldschmidt is actually a fantastic fielder.

 

[Bjindaho]

Stroman doesn't get you Goldschmidt. Goldscmidt is one of the most valuable players in the league.

Goldschmidt is also the superior player to EE. He provides base running value and has had superior offensive value to EE every year since being in the league.

He's a declining asset.

It's the exact same reason you don't make the Sale trade. It's poor management.

 

[ChampsSince67]

He's a declining asset.

It's the exact same reason you don't make the Sale trade. It's poor management.

Goldschmidt had a crappy second half. It happens.

He's still one of the most valuable offensive players in the game. A wRC+ of 134 is nothing to laugh at.

 

[Bjindaho]

Dave Stewart was fires sadly. Though I do wish we were able to fleece him before they fired him

Dave Stewart evaluated talent with W-L and ERA. He would have hated Stroman.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

or maybe people around here overrate other talent and underrate ours? Unless you think a 29 yr old 1B whos WRC+ went from 150, 160, 150 to 134, with negative defense, and is a 1B, i cant stress this enough.. over a top 20 young controlled SP? then sure theyre drunk..

but I'd think the Jays would be the drunk ones here

1B gets the short end of the stick due to positional adjustments. Name me 5 "positive" defense first basemen

Goldy still finished top 5 among 1B in a down year (by his standards). He is an elite bat that I would gladly take over Stroman

 

[Bjindaho]

1B gets the short end of the stick due to positional adjustments. Name me 5 "positive" defense first basemen

Goldy still finished top 5 among 1B in a down year (by his standards). He is an elite bat that I would gladly take over Stroman

No, he didn't...he finished 12th

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

 

[Neil Hamburger]

It seems trading Donaldson in a couple of years is a foregone conclusion, since I doubt management will be willing to dole out a monster contract for a guy his age.

I hope Shatkins plan to build up our prospect pool, while attempting to compete in the small window of having Donaldson left pays dividends.

It's frustrating as hell watching them work with this small/mid-market mentality, though.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

He's a declining asset.

It's the exact same reason you don't make the Sale trade. It's poor management.

What do you think of Donaldson, who is 2 years older? Is he declining?

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

No, he didn't...he finished 12th

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

Sorry - I meant overall (WAR)

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Im wondering where djq is for this... probably just igoring

Sorry, was in a meeting.

Omnibus response to that dude, I forget who he was. (Mind you, I'm sure you guys all covered it).

Of the top thirty starting pitchers in baseball in 2016 using fWAR (because we're not savages), Marcus Stroman ranked #21. Among them, he ranked 1st in GB% (60.1%), 14th in xFIP, and 24th in beautiful sexy SIERA. He was able to produce said value while also being perhaps one of the unluckiest of said top thirty starting pitchers. Observe:

- BABIP: 7th highest
- LOB%: 3rd lowest
- HR/FB: Highest, by far

But screw him; everyone has bad luck sometimes. Moving along, of those top thirty starting pitchers, he ranks 13th among those 28 and younger, and 5th among those 25 and younger (4th if you don't count the dearly departed Fernandez). Tracking back, of those top thirty starters in baseball in 2016, the only ones who matched Stroman's performance or bettered him, and have equal to or more than the amount of Team control contract years left are:

- Syndergaard (5)
- Hendricks (4)
- The Dirty (4)
- Jon Gray (5)
- Stro (4)

That's it. That's the list. And those five starting pitchers (the position with the highest level of scarcity in baseball) are among the most valuable assets in baseball. They are more precious than gold. And yes, any one of them equal or eclipse the value of any of the five position players I listed.

#voteQuimby

 

[one77]

It seems trading Donaldson in a couple of years is a foregone conclusion, since I doubt management will be willing to dole out a monster contract for a guy his age.

I hope Shatkins plan to build up our prospect pool, while attempting to compete in the small window of having Donaldson left pays dividends.

It's frustrating as hell watching them work with this small/mid-market mentality, though.

Agreed. I don't mind them not willing to hand out massive contracts to aging players who have had a good year... but I'm against them only looking for small/mid-market type deals, ESPECIALLY in a market like Toronto where they've seen what kind of revenues a contending team hauls in

 

[Canada4Gold]

No, he didn't...he finished 12th

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

I think he meant based on fWAR but yeah the conversation was about his defense, which like he said 1B does get screwed a bit so Goldy is more average than good defensively. Which is ok, his value comes from his bat which wasn't as good last year

 

[Canada4Gold]

What do you think of Donaldson, who is 2 years older? Is he declining?

Well he's went 147, 130, 154, and 155 in the last 4 years in wRC+ so right now no he's not. Goldy by the same measure is, he dropped from 163 to 134 this past year.

Josh will probably start to decline soon though, and likely won't be worth whatever contract he gets once his years of control are up. Goldy may have just say a small blip this past year and he might get back to himself or it might have been the start of his decline, but yes Goldy has shown more of a decline than Josh has despite their ages.

 

[Walshy7]

Agreed. I don't mind them not willing to hand out massive contracts to aging players who have had a good year... but I'm against them only looking for small/mid-market type deals, ESPECIALLY in a market like Toronto where they've seen what kind of revenues a contending team hauls in

I have no idea either way, what if rogers said we wont to operate like a mid market team, Shapiro doesn't really get a say in what size the owner thinks the market is. You cant get mad at his moves because you think he is operating as a small/mid market team. Now I doubt rogers would do this but you never know

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Well he's went 147, 130, 154, and 155 in the last 4 years in wRC+ so right now no he's not. Goldy by the same measure is, he dropped from 163 to 134 this past year.

Josh will probably start to decline soon though, and likely won't be worth whatever contract he gets once his years of control are up. Goldy may have just say a small blip this past year and he might get back to himself or it might have been the start of his decline, but yes Goldy has shown more of a decline than Josh has despite their ages.

I think that it was just a small blip. 14% Infield pop up rate compared to his career 7%. His FB rate was way off his norm as well.

 

[King Mapes]

Lol at people blaming Shatkins for acting like a mid market team.

You do realize they don't own the team right?

 

[BAM]

so him being a long time poster on this one site makes me wrong? Gotcha.

HFBoards isn't the only forum on the internet.

Also in no way did I attack him. If he knows baseball, I'd love to talk with him. Just because I didn't agree with his opinion, doesn't make me not know what I'm talking about.

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Kurtz]

I work usually from 7:30 to 7:30ish. And at 29, manage a USD$28bn portfolio, with about ~15 subordinates remotely reporting to me from another country. My last performance review came back as: "who's awesome? You're awesome"

I spend an asinine amount of time on this website though...so I suck. The business version of Ben Revere. Very ignorant and other derpa der.

...Did I miss something? What prompted this post?

 

[zeke]

I definitely wouldn't say a number 3 is average. 4's are averages. 5's are below.

There's nothing wrong with a good number 3.

I'd wager guys you consider #3s are all well above average.

 

[Starry Knight]

...Did I miss something? What prompted this post?

Somebody came in and told everyone they suck at their jobs because they post here. (which was prompted because people were saying Mae, Davis, and McCown are terrible at theirs)

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

...Did I miss something? What prompted this post?

Sorry. Some guy called us ignorant for posting on hfboards. Implying we were all unemployed or bad at our jobs.

I did the bombastic, jerkiest response possible. Its the only way I know.

Apologies to all.

 

[Kurtz]

Oh, how odd.

Anyway, joke's on that guy; I've been sucking at my job well before I started posting here!

 

[hockeywiz542]

national harbor, md. — the mets’ primary mission at baseball’s winter meetings remained unfulfilled as team officials left on thursday.

Though general manager sandy alderson and his staff held discussions with several clubs, his outfield remains overstaffed and overpriced, with jay bruce most notably still mets property.

according to industry sources, teams have shown tepid interest in the veteran outfielder, whose $13 million salary the mets would like to shed, allowing the club to proceed with four primary outfielders for three spots.

The rangers and blue jays – two teams the mets thought were legitimate suitors for bruce – are showing minimal interest, according to sources. A third team, the orioles, has interest in curtis granderson, but the mets are reluctant to trade him given the versatility he brings to the outfield and lineup, as somebody who can play center field and hit either leadoff or in the middle of the order.

A day after suggesting the mets had to trade a high-priced player before adding dollars to the payroll, alderson walked back his comments somewhat, saying the mets are operating on “parallel tracks,†looking to clarify the outfield situation while gauging the free-agent market for bullpen help.

 

[hockeywiz542]