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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.

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Discoverer said:
I don't think expecting a bunch of guys in their mid-20s to perform approximately to expectations is an "everything falls into place" situation.
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I mean things tend to go wrong somewhere every year. That’s just the way it seems to work out. If this is the year where we can be an elite offense along with our elite run prevention I will be the first person in line cheering it on…I’m just hedging that a bit as I mean think typically someone will under perform or injuries hit the pitching staff or Vladdy doesn’t turn the corner.
 
BertCorbeau said:
Feels like the Jays are sliding more into mediocrity… but hopefully things start going right!
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I think the term mediocrity is a bit harsh. This is a team that will easily finish above .500, and should be in and around 90 wins again.

Now, is this team looking like the division winner favourite that was going to possibly flirt with 100 wins and be at the top of the list of World Series contenders? No, they've fallen off that projection (until proven otherwise). So while that is certainly disappointing in terms of what they were/are projected to be and what we as fans expected them to be, I think the days of classifying the franchise as mediocre are behind this team for at least a few more years.
 
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TheBeastCoast said:
I could realistically see us anywhere in the 80-90 range depending on luck and health. I don’t see an elite division winner though.
Click to expand...
They do have a few IFs that would have to all work out in their favour, but I still think 500 is the likely floor.
 
GoonieFace said:
I’m pretty sure you have no clue how it works
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TheBeastCoast said:
Most successful professional front offices operate that way. I really do not understand why some fans here are still so hung up on that being an ask of AA lol it wasn't in anyway an unreasonable or uncommon thing to expect at the time or right now.
Click to expand...

Forgotusername said:
Yes had to run stuff by him, in an interview he said he had couldn't call Beeston past 10 and would have to wait for the next day to get his okay.
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Well, something must have happened for AA to walk away from the Jays when Shapiro came on the scene. It seems like Beeston is clearly an easier president to work with then Shapiro and offers more autonomy.
 
mikeyz said:
Well, something must have happened for AA to walk away from the Jays when Shapiro came on the scene. It seems like Beeston is clearly an easier president to work with then Shapiro and offers more autonomy.
Click to expand...

Yes and it was absolutely because Rogers hired Shapiro as president, but my additional theory is that he knew the team was going to have to go through another rebuild soon.

There’s no denying that AA wanted autonomy, it’s the level of it that he would have received that I think is often underestimated. So he doesn’t have signature approval for significant transactions and signings… I’m sure he has to pitch those same things to McGuirk and the board in Atlanta.

The report that he got chewed out by Shapiro regarding his 2015 deadline deals to me represented a belief that he was already out the door once Shapiro was announced as the next president and Shapiro was upset that he used assets for a final shot at a postseason appearance. For AA to decline a significant raise and contract extension only to become a VP for the Dodgers until a new, attractive opportunity arose kinda supports this theory.

Why would he be upset about lack of autonomy… only to go to another organization and have a lack of autonomy? I’m sure there were other opportunities out there, but he stayed at a world class organization and left after they lost in the WS to join another highly successful organization that just finished their rebuild/retool and was ready to compete again.
 
Probably means nothing because they both train in Florida and Soler looks to be wearing Miami Marins gear, but Manoah is pitching to Soler in his latest Instagram story.
 
Just crossed my mind with the NHL All Star Game here in the city this weekend, wondering if the Jays may be in line to getting an ASG any time soon.

Was here in '91, so the 30+ years more than covers the cycle of teams. Texas, Atlanta and Philadelphia have the next three, so earliest would be 2027. With the Dome having gone a complete overhaul by then, the franchise may be worthy of hosting again. I'm hopeful by the end of this decade.
 
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TheTotalPackage said:
Just crossed my mind with the NHL All Star Game here in the city this weekend, wondering if the Jays may be in line to getting an ASG any time soon.

Was here in '91, so the 30+ years more than covers the cycle of teams. Texas, Atlanta and Philadelphia have the next three, so earliest would be 2027. With the Dome having gone a complete overhaul by then, the franchise may be worthy of hosting again. I'm hopeful by the end of this decade.
Click to expand...

I think as soon as the reno project was first mentioned it was brought up that it would probably be a stepping stone to hosting another ASG. Wouldn't surprise me if it happens before the decade is out. I could see maybe Baltimore getting one to butter up their new ownership group but there aren't a ton of other teams that I think would have a place in line before the Jays.
 
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If Vladdy and Springer play to their potential and the pitching staff stays relatively healthy, we should be in the hunt for a wildcard playoff spot.
 
www.mlb.com

Turner on joining the Blue Jays | 02/02/2024

Justin Turner speaks about why he chose to play for the Blue Jays, the AL East, his free agency process, the current roster and more
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com


GFXZpRIXIAEH7-V.jpg
 
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phillipmike said:


Hopefully he returns healthy and to form because this could complete derail his career. Should injuries are so much worse than Tommy John.
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He's pretty much a reliever at this point. The hype with him is a bit ridiculous considering he's never really shown he can handle a starters work load. Soon to be 26 yr old thats never pitched 100 innings in a season. He's never pitched more than 60 until this year and surprise his body can't even handle that work load.
 
I know a lot of people are down on the Jays but to me they are right in the same tier as their division contenders. If you put the Jays starters next to all the other starters in the division by team, the Jays win by a vast majority.

Yankees:
I'm taking Torres over Schneider/Biggio, Lemahieu over IKF, Judge over Springer, Soto over Varsho, Cole over Gasuman and Cortes (if healthy) over Kikuchi.

Everywhere else, im taking the Jays. Kirk over Wells, Vladdy over Rizzo, Bo over Volpe, Kiermaier over Verdugo, Turner over Stanton, Bassitt over Rodon, Berrios over Stroman, Manoah over Schmidt and Romano over Holmes.

9-6 Jays

Tampa:
I'm taking Yandy over Vladdy, Lowe over Schneider/Biggio, Paredes over IKF, Arozarena over Varsho, and Fairbanks over Romano.

I'm taking Kirk over Pinto, Bo over Walls, Kiermaier over Siri, Springer over Lowe, Turner over Ramirez, Gausman over Eflin, Bassit over Civale, Berrios over Littell, Kikuchi overPepiot, Manoah over Baz/Bradley.

10-5 Jays

Orioles:
I'm taking Adley over Kirk, Westburg over Biggio/Schenider, Gunnar over IKF, and Mullins over Kiermaier.

Everywhere else I'm taking the Jays. Vladdy over O'Hearn, Bo over Holliday/Urias, Varsho over Hayes, Springer over Santander, Turner over Mountcastle, Gausman over Burnes, Bassistt over Bradish, Berrios over Grayson, Kikuch over Kramer, Manoah over Means and Romano over Kimbrel.

11-4 Jays

Red Sox:
Im taking Devers over IKF and Yoshida over Varsho.

I'm Kirk over Wong/Reese, Vladdy over Casas, Schneider/Biggio over Grissom, Bo over Story, Kiermaier over O'Neill/Duran, Springer over Abreu/Refsnyder, Turner over the field, Gausman over Giolito, Bassitt over Bello, Berrios over Pivetta, Kikuchi over Crawford, Manoah over Houck and Romano over Devers.

13-2 Jays

Not saying the Jays are head over heels better than these players but outlining none of the AL east teams are head over heels or a tier above the Jays. Yankees have a lot to prove in terms of healthy to come back, O's are still young and had a near perfect season last year anchored but their pen and Felix Bautista is out for the year. Tampa lost Franco, Glasnow and Margot and added nothing.

Comparing each position:
Catcher: Adley (BAL) > Kirk/Jansen (TOR) > Wells (NYY) > Pinto (TAM) > Wong/Reese (BOS)
1B: Yandy (TAM) > Vladdy (TOR) > Casas (BOS) > Rizzo (NYY) > O'Hearn (BAL)
2B: Torres (NYY) > Lowe (TAM) > Westburg (BAL) > Schneider/Biggio (TOR) > Grissom (BOS)
SS: Bichette (TOR) > Holliday/Urias (BAL) > Volpe (NYY) > Story (BOS) > Wells (TAM)
3B: Devers (BOS) > Henderson (BAL) > Paredes (TAM) > LeMahieu (NYY) > IKF (TOR)
RF: Judge (NYY) > Springer (TOR) > Lowe (TAM) > Santander (BAL) > Abreu/Refsynder (BAL)
CF: Mullins (BAL) > Kiermaier (TOR) > Verdugo (NYY) > Duran/O'Neill (BOS) > Siri (TAM)
LF: Soto (NYY) > Arozerena (TAM) > Yoshida (BOS) > Varsho (TOR) > Hays (BAL)
DH: Turner (TOR) > Mountcastle (BAL) > Ramirez (TAM) > Stanton (NYY) > (BOS)
SP1: Cole (NYY) > Gausman (TOR) > Burnes (BAL) > Eflin (TAM) > Gilolito (BOS)
SP2: Bassitt (TOR) > Bradish (BAL) > Civale (TAM) > Rodon (NYY) > Bello (BOS)
SP3: Berrios (TOR) > Stroman (NYY) > Rodriguez (BAL) > Pivetta (BOS) > Littell (TAM)
SP4: Cortes (NYY) > Kikuchi (TOR) > Kramer (BAL) > Crawford (BOS) > Pepiot (TAM)
SP5: Manoah (TOR) >Schmidt (NYY) > Bradley (TAM) > Means (BAL) > Houck (BOS)
Closer: Fairbanks (TAM) > Romano (TOR) > Holmes (NYY) > Jansen (BOS) > Kimbrel (BAL)
Rest of the Pen: TOR > BOS > TAM > NYY > O's
Bench: TOR > NYY > O's > TAM > BOS

Outside of 2B, 3B and LF, the Jays are 1st or 2nd in every other category. Even if the Jays re-sign Chapman, they are 4th at best in 3B as Devers, Henderson and Paredes are all better.

Fangraph's 2024 projections:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
Team​
[/TD]

[TD]
Batter fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Starting Pitching fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Reliever fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Total​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Yankees​
[/TD]

[TD]
32.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
13.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.1​
[/TD]

[TD]
48.1​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Jays​
[/TD]

[TD]
27.8​
[/TD]

[TD]
13.3​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.2​
[/TD]

[TD]
44.4​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Rays​
[/TD]

[TD]
26.2​
[/TD]

[TD]
12.1​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.8​
[/TD]

[TD]
42.0​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Orioles​
[/TD]

[TD]
27.7​
[/TD]

[TD]
12.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
41.9​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Red Sox​
[/TD]

[TD]
22.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
11.9​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.0​
[/TD]

[TD]
37.4​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

O's could add Snell and JD and their projected WAR would be at least a full WAR less than the Jays.
 
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phillipmike said:
I know a lot of people are down on the Jays but to me they are right in the same tier as their division contenders. If you put the Jays starters next to all the other starters in the division by team, the Jays win by a vast majority.

Yankees:
I'm taking Torres over Schneider/Biggio, Lemahieu over IKF, Judge over Springer, Soto over Varsho, Cole over Gasuman and Cortes (if healthy) over Kikuchi.

Everywhere else, im taking the Jays. Kirk over Wells, Vladdy over Rizzo, Bo over Volpe, Kiermaier over Verdugo, Turner over Stanton, Bassitt over Rodon, Berrios over Stroman, Manoah over Schmidt and Romano over Holmes.

9-6 Jays

Tampa:
I'm taking Yandy over Vladdy, Lowe over Schneider/Biggio, Paredes over IKF, Arozarena over Varsho, and Fairbanks over Romano.

I'm taking Kirk over Pinto, Bo over Walls, Kiermaier over Siri, Springer over Lowe, Turner over Ramirez, Gausman over Eflin, Bassit over Civale, Berrios over Littell, Kikuchi overPepiot, Manoah over Baz/Bradley.

10-5 Jays

Orioles:
I'm taking Adley over Kirk, Westburg over Biggio/Schenider, Gunnar over IKF, and Mullins over Kiermaier.

Everywhere else I'm taking the Jays. Vladdy over O'Hearn, Bo over Holliday/Urias, Varsho over Hayes, Springer over Santander, Turner over Mountcastle, Gausman over Burnes, Bassistt over Bradish, Berrios over Grayson, Kikuch over Kramer, Manoah over Means and Romano over Kimbrel.

11-4 Jays

Red Sox:
Im taking Devers over IKF and Yoshida over Varsho.

I'm Kirk over Wong/Reese, Vladdy over Casas, Schneider/Biggio over Grissom, Bo over Story, Kiermaier over O'Neill/Duran, Springer over Abreu/Refsnyder, Turner over the field, Gausman over Giolito, Bassitt over Bello, Berrios over Pivetta, Kikuchi over Crawford, Manoah over Houck and Romano over Devers.

13-2 Jays

Not saying the Jays are head over heels better than these players but outlining none of the AL east teams are head over heels or a tier above the Jays. Yankees have a lot to prove in terms of healthy to come back, O's are still young and had a near perfect season last year anchored but their pen and Felix Bautista is out for the year. Tampa lost Franco, Glasnow and Margot and added nothing.

Comparing each position:
Catcher: Adley (BAL) > Kirk/Jansen (TOR) > Wells (NYY) > Pinto (TAM) > Wong/Reese (BOS)
1B: Yandy (TAM) > Vladdy (TOR) > Casas (BOS) > Rizzo (NYY) > O'Hearn (BAL)
2B: Torres (NYY) > Lowe (TAM) > Westburg (BAL) > Schneider/Biggio (TOR) > Grissom (BOS)
SS: Bichette (TOR) > Holliday/Urias (BAL) > Volpe (NYY) > Story (BOS) > Wells (TAM)
3B: Devers (BOS) > Henderson (BAL) > Paredes (TAM) > LeMahieu (NYY) > IKF (TOR)
RF: Judge (NYY) > Springer (TOR) > Lowe (TAM) > Santander (BAL) > Abreu/Refsynder (BAL)
CF: Mullins (BAL) > Kiermaier (TOR) > Verdugo (NYY) > Duran/O'Neill (BOS) > Siri (TAM)
LF: Soto (NYY) > Arozerena (TAM) > Yoshida (BOS) > Varsho (TOR) > Hays (BAL)
DH: Turner (TOR) > Mountcastle (BAL) > Ramirez (TAM) > Stanton (NYY) > (BOS)
SP1: Cole (NYY) > Gausman (TOR) > Burnes (BAL) > Eflin (TAM) > Gilolito (BOS)
SP2: Bassitt (TOR) > Bradish (BAL) > Civale (TAM) > Rodon (NYY) > Bello (BOS)
SP3: Berrios (TOR) > Stroman (NYY) > Rodriguez (BAL) > Pivetta (BOS) > Littell (TAM)
SP4: Cortes (NYY) > Kikuchi (TOR) > Kramer (BAL) > Crawford (BOS) > Pepiot (TAM)
SP5: Manoah (TOR) >Schmidt (NYY) > Bradley (TAM) > Means (BAL) > Houck (BOS)
Closer: Fairbanks (TAM) > Romano (TOR) > Holmes (NYY) > Jansen (BOS) > Kimbrel (BAL)
Rest of the Pen: TOR > BOS > TAM > NYY > O's
Bench: TOR > NYY > O's > TAM > BOS

Outside of 2B, 3B and LF, the Jays are 1st or 2nd in every other category. Even if the Jays re-sign Chapman, they are 4th at best in 3B as Devers, Henderson and Paredes are all better.

Fangraph's 2024 projections:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
Team​
[/TD]

[TD]
Batter fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Starting Pitching fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Reliever fWAR​
[/TD]

[TD]
Total​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Yankees​
[/TD]

[TD]
32.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
13.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.1​
[/TD]

[TD]
48.1​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Jays​
[/TD]

[TD]
27.8​
[/TD]

[TD]
13.3​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.2​
[/TD]

[TD]
44.4​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Rays​
[/TD]

[TD]
26.2​
[/TD]

[TD]
12.1​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.8​
[/TD]

[TD]
42.0​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Orioles​
[/TD]

[TD]
27.7​
[/TD]

[TD]
12.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
41.9​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Red Sox​
[/TD]

[TD]
22.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
11.9​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.0​
[/TD]

[TD]
37.4​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

O's could add Snell and JD and their projected WAR would be at least a full WAR less than the Jays.
Click to expand...
Good breakdown.

And what's great about LF and 3B is that 3 of our top 7 prospects (Martinez, Barger, Roden) play 3B/LF, so there's always a chance someone pops off. And with Kiermaier and IKF providing a decently high floor, LF and 3B have some insurance.

I see a lot of people complaining on Twitter about the Jays signing IKF over Urshella or the other 3B's, but if management believes Orelvis Martinez or someone else could be a 3B option in 2024, would the Jays rather Martinez/IKF at 3B or someone like Urshella? And would Urshella have agreed to such a role that IKF did? If they believe in the internal guys like Orelvis Martinez, then IKF makes more sense than some of the other 3B options because IKF is cheap and more versatile, and he can change positions if an AAA guy comes up.

Hopefully, someone pops off at 3B or LF though.
 
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Before we brought back KK, I would’ve been interested in seeing the Brewers asking price for Yelich and how much they would retain
 
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