Speculation: Nylander XXI - all Nylander discussion here (MOD WARNING IN OP)

[ole ole]

Before he was traded by Arizona...

That makes more sense,

 

[Brock Radunske]

Nope, the worst possible outcome would be the Leafs caving to his demands at the 11th hour and offering him the Draistaitl contract it is claimed he is holding out for ($8.5 million) when nothing about his production so far indicates he is anywhere near this and as a result the Leafs maybe not bring able to sign Marner (who is substantially better) this offseason.

A bad deal is worse than no deal.

THIS!

 

[The don godfather]

You guys think this is a sign and trade situation. Feels like it.

 

[Bazeek]

Nope, the worst possible outcome would be the Leafs caving to hos demands at the 11th hour and offering him the Draistaitl contract it is claimed he is holding out for ($8.5 million) when nothing about his production so far indicates he is anywhere near this and as a result the Leafs maybe not bring able to sign Marner (who is substantially better) this offseason.

A bad deal is worse than no deal. If Nylander really refuses to budge on AAV down to his actual market value, and a trade isn’t available that offers similar value then the best option available (or least-bad) is for Dubas to hold his nerve and let Nylander sit out the season. When the alternatives are either: severely overpay him and risk losing a significantly better player next year as a result or trade him for pennies on the dollar, then yeah, letting him sit the season is the only viable option.

Those aren't the alternatives though. There's every reason to think that both sides can meet in the middle on a bridge deal that neither is happy with, but is still better than Nylander sitting out the year. It gives Nylander a chance to earn the contract he's asking for and it gives the Leafs time to pursue trade options without simultaneously cratering the value of the player they're trying to trade.

If he sits out it's because both sides are too stubborn to act in their own self-interest, and that's vanishingly unlikely.

 

[NoName]

You guys think this is a sign and trade situation. Feels like it.

If the return is right that would be a solid option. But that is a big “if”. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out in the next 24 hours.

 

[Brock Radunske]

You guys think this is a sign and trade situation. Feels like it.

I'm fine with that, providing it's an appropriate return (Muzzin/Petry/Faulk/Pesce/Tanev do not qualify)

 

[razkaz]

I like the 'no leverage' some fans are trying to use to make themselves feel better regarding Nylander.
It's absolutely correct he stands to lose a year of money and production if he doesn't sign, but it's not like this kid is hard up. His family is wealthy, he has endorsements and he could always play in another league for more money than most people posting here will make in the next 6+ years. He has leverage.

Both sides are in a really ****ty spot. Being perfectly honest, if I was Dubas, I'd trade him versus signing him. When the coach, teammates and everyone else's cousin chimes in with the 'we expect him to sign, he should sign, team first' that bridge won't be easily repaired. Now, I agree, don't take pennies on the dollar; there's no need to trade him for garbage. But if I could get a good cost controlled younger (under 27) player that brings something to put my team over the top... I think you do it.

Sure he can go play in another league but he risks getting hurt and decreasing his value even more. He can't play in the NHL unless he gets offersheeted or signs with the Leafs. Nylander can sit out a year and in the off season maybe the Leafs offer less

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Leafs are not in a position of strength. If I am Waddell I wait till Dubas comes to me. If it is correct what Nylander is asking for. I keep Pesce. So even that might be off the table.

The Leafs are in a much stronger position than Nylander.
Currently tied for first in the League, even though they were missing their best player for almost have the season.
They are third in the League in goals against average and third in the League in goals for average.
They are doing fine without him.

Nylander stands to lose a year's salary (minus whatever he can arrange for himself in another, lesser, League while risking his health with no long-term contract signed).
He is a valuable asset who isn't going to be traded away for pennies on the dollar just because of the December 1st deadline, even though a lot of Leafs haters have their fingers crossed.
That would be terrible asset management for a team looking to be competitive every year going forward.

It's pretty easy to see who has the most to lose by sitting out which is why I fully expect a signed contract paying Nylander no more than an average of $7 million a season over the next 6-8 years, which would be a fair deal based on his closest comparables.
Barring that a 3 year bridge deal for under $6 million on average.

 

[The Mentalist]

Leafs are not in a position of strength. If I am Waddell I wait till Dubas comes to me. If it is correct what Nylander is asking for. I keep Pesce. So even that might be off the table.

Leafs are in a position of strength. They are one of the top teams in league without Nylander. They are not going trade him for inferior pecies like Faulk etc. Pesce sounds enticing but him alone wouldn't fetch Nylander. Toronto can sit Nylander out and still have a successful season and sign/trade him over the summer.

 

[NoName]

Those aren't the alternatives though. There's every reason to think that both sides can meet in the middle on a bridge deal that neither is happy with, but is still better than Nylander sitting out the year. It gives Nylander a chance to earn the contract he's asking for and it gives the Leafs time to pursue trade options without simultaneously cratering the value of the player they're trying to trade.

If he sits out it's because both sides are too stubborn to act in their own self-interest, and that's vanishingly unlikely.

I can’t imagine that the Leafs would balk at a reasonable bridge deal (say 3x 5.5mil), the low term isn’t the worst, Leafs just need AAV right now. All reports I have heard indicate however that Nylander doesn’t want that and us looking for that big AAV long term contract.

Listen, if Nylander sits out, both sides are not equally hurt here. The Leafs have an asset sitting in the shelf which is frankly a luxury given their forward depth. Yes, Nylander would definitely make that top-6 even more potent in place of Kapanen, but even without him, that is a deep, talented group. For Nylander if he sits out, he is leaving the likely $6+ million the Leafs will have offered him for this season on the table. That money is gone. All so he can go though exactly the same process next season... just a tear older and with even less leverage and trade value since he has sat out a year.

 

[viper0220]

"Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock."

Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock

 

[Volica]

Sure he can go play in another league but he risks getting hurt and decreasing his value even more. He can't play in the NHL unless he gets offersheeted or signs with the Leafs. Nylander can sit out a year and in the off season maybe the Leafs offer less

Does it decrease his value though? He can just stay there
Like I said, everyone loses, but I suggest to everyone to not think that this kid doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Kid's a millionaire, from a millionaire family; it's why he has the balls to sit and wait to play for what he deems is 'what he's worth'.

 

[nturn06]

"Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock."

Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock

Didn't Tavares say that he will sign before the training camp?

When does the training camp start?

 

[Bazeek]

I can’t imagine that the Leafs would balk at a reasonable bridge deal (say 3x 5.5mil), the low term isn’t the worst, Leafs just need AAV right now. All reports I have heard indicate however that Nylander doesn’t want that and us looking for that big AAV long term contract.

Listen, if Nylander sits out, both sides are not equally hurt here. The Leafs have an asset sitting in the shelf which is frankly a luxury given their forward depth. Yes, Nylander would definitely make that top-6 even more potent in place of Kapanen, but even without him, that is a deep, talented group. For Nylander if he sits out, he is leaving the likely $6+ million the Leafs will have offered him for this season on the table. That money is gone. All so he can go though exactly the same process next season... just a tear older and with even less leverage and trade value since he has sat out a year.

It doesn't really matter which side is hurt "more" by him sitting out, it's enough that it's the worst option available to both sides. That should guarantee that it doesn't happen, barring one or both parties feeling petty and punitive. Whatever bad feelings there are, both sides want to avoid that.

I'll put it another way: the 3 years for $5.5m bridge deal seems like a likely compromise to me. Do you think there's any way the Leafs would rather have Nylander sit the year out than offer him that contract? Do you think there's any way Nylander would rather sit out than accept that contract?

 

[Leafidelity]

Leafs are not in a position of strength. If I am Waddell I wait till Dubas comes to me. If it is correct what Nylander is asking for. I keep Pesce. So even that might be off the table.

The 2nd place Leafs are not in a position of strength, but the 16th place Hurricanes are?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Leafs are not in a position of strength. If I am Waddell I wait till Dubas comes to me. If it is correct what Nylander is asking for. I keep Pesce. So even that might be off the table.

If you are Waddell, enjoy your wait.

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

The 2nd place Leafs are not in a position of strength, but the 16th place Hurricanes are?

Hes not talking about on ice strength, but future cap space and trade demands...

 

[boredmale]

You guys think this is a sign and trade situation. Feels like it.

Wouldn't it make more sense to trade and sign for the team acquiring him?

 

[haveandare]

Leafs are in a position of strength. They are one of the top teams in league without Nylander. They are not going trade him for inferior pecies like Faulk etc. Pesce sounds enticing but him alone wouldn't fetch Nylander. Toronto can sit Nylander out and still have a successful season and sign/trade him over the summer.

Given their place in the standings and what their cap looks like for next year, a "successful season" this year is winning a cup. They unarguably have a better chance at that with Nylander in or with a return for Nylander in than with him sitting.

Take it from a Ranger fan who's team was there and fell short. The satisfaction of a deep run that ends without a cup doesn't last very long. If I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I don't want big time assets being wasted in the last year of Matthews and Marner's ELCs.

 

[Fogelhund]

"Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock."

Nylander 'going to be a career Leaf,' says Babcock

So his career in the NHL is over?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Given their place in the standings and what their cap looks like for next year, a "successful season" this year is winning a cup. They unarguably have a better chance at that with Nylander in or with a return for Nylander in than with him sitting.

Take it from a Ranger fan who's team was there and fell short. The satisfaction of a deep run that ends without a cup doesn't last very long. If I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I don't want big time assets being wasted in the last year of Matthews and Marner's ELCs.

Having Nylander here but overpriced is good for this year but not the remaining years.

 

[Rob Brown]

Given their place in the standings and what their cap looks like for next year, a "successful season" this year is winning a cup. They unarguably have a better chance at that with Nylander in or with a return for Nylander in than with him sitting.

Take it from a Ranger fan who's team was there and fell short. The satisfaction of a deep run that ends without a cup doesn't last very long. If I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I don't want big time assets being wasted in the last year of Matthews and Marner's ELCs.

Of course, no one is arguing that, but the Leafs aren't going to take a disappointing trade return just to get something.

 

[haveandare]

Having Nylander here but overpriced is good for this year but not the remaining years.

Agreed, I'm not saying sign him for anything, just countering this idea that him sitting out is no big deal. It's a very big deal imo.

Of course, no one is arguing that, but the Leafs aren't going to take a disappointing trade return just to get something.

Same thing, I'm not saying trade him for whatever, just arguing with the idea that him sitting out is a minor inconvenience.

 

[Rob Brown]

Same thing, I'm not saying trade him for whatever, just arguing with the idea that him sitting out is a minor inconvenience.

Yeah, it sucks and it's disappointing. But I'd rather Dubas do what's best long term for the team and not give in just to get him in the lineup.

 

[Leafidelity]

Hes not talking about on ice strength, but future cap space and trade demands...

Still don't see how having too many good assets and a winning team is supposed to be a bad thing. If a player needs to be traded, he'll be traded for another asset of similar value. Even if Nylander sits the year, he's still property of the Leafs. And winning without him means they don't need to rush into a thing. Do top teams usually make desperation trades, or bubble teams?