Value of: Nylander (Trade)

Pavels Dog

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And literally every. single. year. this board tells us next year we are screwed and every. single. year. the team opens the season compliant.

Like yeah it will be tight, but that is 1 year and my point is the Leafs window is not 1 year it is 5 when Matthews expires, and 3 of those years the Leafs have lots of flexibility and can easily fill a quality roster, and 1 of those years is this year coming up.
I don't think they're "screwed", but I also think the math is off if you think there's no problems to solve at all. There's also some questionmarks about whether it's really a viable plan for cup contending to keep patching holes on defense/goalie with bargain bin solutions.
 

Golden_Jet

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So can’t answer original question you responded to, thought so.

As a reminder, it was 7.4 million left with 15 signed, using OP math that I quoted, we’ll try one last time, what part is wrong ?
Try and answer without moving goalposts again.
@HockeyVirus
So can’t answer a simple question like I thought, using laughing emojis to dodge the question, comes across as childish , we’re done here. Looks like I was correct then, thanks.
 
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Petes2424

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If Hanifin has changed his mind, the trade still makes the most sense. The Leafs would finally have that second Dman to drive play.

It would be interesting if the Leafs are willing to take on Hanifin without an extension. If we assume Nylander would play the year out in TO and possibly walk next summer anyway, what’s the difference if Hanifin did?? Other than having a better shot to win in the playoffs this year….

That’s what it would really come down to. Does Hanifin or Nylander give them the best chance to win THIS year? I think hands down, it’s Hanifin.
 
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BobClarkesfrontteeth

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33 million, with 11 players signed, don’t forget. So your 7.4 million left now has 15 signed.
Its 33.4 mil with 12 players signed so it's 16 signed. You have your top 6 forwards signed, 4 of your bottom 6 players signed, Your top 5 defencemen signed and a goalie. The biggest question is the goalie. 7.4 million to sign your 11,and 12 th forwards and 6th dman plus a goalie is not unrealistic. Teams do this every year.
 
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Yepthatsme

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If Hanifin has changed his mind, the trade still makes the most sense. The Leafs would finally have that second Dman to drive play.

It would be interesting if the Leafs are willing to take on Hanifin without an extension. If we assume Nylander would play the year out in TO and possibly walk next summer anyway, what’s the difference if Hanifin did?? Other than having a better shot to win in the playoffs this year….

That’s what it would really come down to. Does Hanifin or Nylander give them the best chance to win THIS year? I think hands down, it’s Hanifin.
There is also a lot of motivation for both players to sign with their new teams. Hanifin reunites with both Brodie and Giordano, as well as treliving in the front office who went out of his way to acquire him the first time. Nylander returns to his technical hometown, and joins a rather large contingent of Swedes on the roster with Lindholm, Backlund, Andersson, Kylington, and Markstrom. Think Calgary would be extremely motivated to make this trade, could see them adding some mid round picks and/or Dube as well. Calgary’s forward core starts slotting extremely well by adding Nylander:

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Nylander
Pelletier-Kadri-Sharangovich
Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman
Dube-Ruzicka-Duehr

Pending on a bounce back from Huberdeau that’s a pretty good forward core. Nylander could be exactly what Huberdeau and Lindholm need as well.
 
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BobClarkesfrontteeth

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So they just need to sign a starting goaltender and like 6 other players with 7 mil in cap space - assuming they get favorable contracts on Bertuzzi, Nylander and not one but TWO UFA d-men (as we know those never get paid more than they are worth) AND assuming the cap goes up by as much as expected.
Seems totally realistic.
As I answered Golden Jet. they have 12 players under contract next year. So its 2 forwards a defenceman and a goalie.
How is Bertuzzi "favourable at 7 mil"? Nylander at 9 as well? What do you think they should sign for as I don't think either gets more.
As I said 2 UFA Dmen for 10 million. They type of Dmen they need/want get between 4 to 5 million in UFA. Maybe one gets 6 and one gets 4. Never said they were going to be worth the contract or paid more than they are worth. But there will be lots of Dmen signed in that range next year.
Cap could have went up by 4 million this year but Gary wanted the Union to give up something so it stayed flat. I am only using the the Cap space on Cap Friendly but if you have a better source I can use that one instead.
 

AndreRoy

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His value is determined by his contract extension. 10 million? Not many teams gonna give him that. 8.5? I'm sure a few might. How much he demands determines his value
That’s part of the picture; other factors include the number of teams with which he’s willing to sign and whether or not Toronto retaining him is a realistic option. If Toronto “has” to move him (or lose him for nothing) and he’ll only sign an extension with one team then that team has the Leafs over a barrel; if he’s willing to stay in Toronto for a price the Leafs can realistically afford or if he’s willing to sign a reasonably extension with whoever he’s traded to then Toronto has far more leverage than in the previous scenario.
 

Petes2424

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There is also a lot of motivation for both players to sign with their new teams. Hanifin reunites with both Brodie and Giordano, as well as treliving in the front office who went out of his way to acquire him the first time. Nylander returns to his technical hometown, and joins a rather large contingent of Swedes on the roster with Lindholm, Backlund, Andersson, Kylington, and Markstrom. Think Calgary would be extremely motivated to make this trade, could see them adding some mid round picks and/or Dube as well. Calgary’s forward core starts slotting extremely well by adding Nylander:

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Nylander
Pelletier-Kadri-Sharangovich
Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman
Dube-Ruzicka-Duehr

Pending on a bounce back from Huberdeau that’s a pretty good forward core. Nylander could be exactly what Huberdeau and Lindholm need as well.
Yea, to me it’s a perfect trade for both teams. Figure out the resigning later. I just know I’ve been screaming for the last 3 years, they need that second pair carrying Dman, and here’s a chance to get one. Don’t need the points from him. Similar to Vegas not needing the points from Pietrangelo. Just that he controls the pace. Hanifin does that.

It just makes them so much harder to play against in a 7 game series. If the trade includes Liljegren and Mangiapane, as some have speculated… all the better…
 

Pavels Dog

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How is Bertuzzi "favourable at 7 mil"? Nylander at 9 as well? What do you think they should sign for as I don't think either gets more.
As I said 2 UFA Dmen for 10 million. They type of Dmen they need/want get between 4 to 5 million in UFA.
I think those are all optimistic, especially if the cap does rise a decent amount. Depending on health/performance from Bertuzzi especially, more injuries make him cheaper ofc.
I'm also in disagreement that they type of d-men they need are easy to get at 4-5 mil in UFA. Those tend to be filler-type d-men. I don't see a ton of great d-men hitting the open market next summer, but if Devon Toews does he'll be the top target and he's actually the type of d-man the Leafs need and will go for closer to 10 than 5.
 

BobClarkesfrontteeth

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I think those are all optimistic, especially if the cap does rise a decent amount. Depending on health/performance from Bertuzzi especially, more injuries make him cheaper ofc.
I'm also in disagreement that they type of d-men they need are easy to get at 4-5 mil in UFA. Those tend to be filler-type d-men. I don't see a ton of great d-men hitting the open market next summer, but if Devon Toews does he'll be the top target and he's actually the type of d-man the Leafs need and will go for closer to 10 than 5.
Pecse,Hannifan,Toews,Skjei, are the top teir with Toews being the best then there is Montour,Roy,Martinez,Barrie,Klingberg,Grezlyk,Zadorov,Myers,DeMelo,Walker and Dillion. All Dmen that are top 4 dmen to various degrees. Non of these players are fillers. Several of the second tier re going for less than 5 million.

Soucy,Graves and Mayfield all signed for under 5 million and these three were all players that had multiple people on HF posting that these are the exact dmen the leafs should target.

As for Bertuzzi there is talk that there might be a deal already in place for him come Jan 1. If so I cannot see it being for a higher AAV than 7 mil. with the Leafs able to give him 8 years and the rumoured ask in the summer from the Bruins was 7.5 over 5. pretty easy to stretch the term to lower the AAV.

So I think it is overly optimistic to think the Leafs are in some sort of cap crunch because they sign Nylander to a 9 plus AAV contract and have to trade him.
 

Pavels Dog

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Pecse,Hannifan,Toews,Skjei, are the top teir with Toews being the best then there is Montour,Roy,Martinez,Barrie,Klingberg,Grezlyk,Zadorov,Myers,DeMelo,Walker and Dillion. All Dmen that are top 4 dmen to various degrees. Non of these players are fillers. Several of the second tier re going for less than 5 million.

Soucy,Graves and Mayfield all signed for under 5 million and these three were all players that had multiple people on HF posting that these are the exact dmen the leafs should target.

As for Bertuzzi there is talk that there might be a deal already in place for him come Jan 1. If so I cannot see it being for a higher AAV than 7 mil. with the Leafs able to give him 8 years and the rumoured ask in the summer from the Bruins was 7.5 over 5. pretty easy to stretch the term to lower the AAV.

So I think it is overly optimistic to think the Leafs are in some sort of cap crunch because they sign Nylander to a 9 plus AAV contract and have to trade him.
I think we have a different idea of what caliber of d-man the Leafs really need. If you sign a Zadorov and Myers thinking they're the missing pieces for a cup run you may end up disappointed.
And obviously as the cap goes so will UFA contracts - you can't pretend the two things exist indepent of eachother.
 

BobClarkesfrontteeth

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I think we have a different idea of what caliber of d-man the Leafs really need. If you sign a Zadorov and Myers thinking they're the missing pieces for a cup run you may end up disappointed.
And obviously as the cap goes so will UFA contracts - you can't pretend the two things exist indepent of eachother.
How about the other 13 Dmen listed? Funny how you arbitrarily pick 2 that have the exact same strengths and weaknesses. I bet you love to use SSS to prove statistical points too.

As for what the Leafs need for a cup run I think consistent scoring and winning at home are of greater concern in the immediate future.

As for the cap it is expected to rise by 5%. Which means contracts should raise by 5% in monetary value. which on a 5 million contract is 250,000 AAV. That really does not effect the argument.
 

Pavels Dog

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How about the other 13 Dmen listed? Funny how you arbitrarily pick 2 that have the exact same strengths and weaknesses. I bet you love to use SSS to prove statistical points too.

As for what the Leafs need for a cup run I think consistent scoring and winning at home are of greater concern in the immediate future.

As for the cap it is expected to rise by 5%. Which means contracts should raise by 5% in monetary value. which on a 5 million contract is 250,000 AAV. That really does not effect the argument.
Forgive me for not believing Montour's going to hit the open market and sign for 4.5 mil after a 70+ point season and playoffs worthy of Conn Smythe talk.
A lot of the other guys in that arbitrary "tier" are mediocre-to-bad, which is why they may be cheap. But go ahead, maybe Klingberg+Barrie is the solution? A 37 year old Martinez and Nikita Zadorov would surely strike fear into the hearts of men..
There's a reason the quality guys either don't hit the market or get paid (Severson for example).
 
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TheGroceryStick

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I have a hard time believing Nylander is traded for futures (or even a Dman exclusively)

Unless we know for sure we have a RW replacement for what is lost while trading Nylander OR if a moonshot trade presents itself. I don’t see him getting moved, especially if it’s just for “future” asset management.
 

BobClarkesfrontteeth

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Forgive me for not believing Montour's going to hit the open market and sign for 4.5 mil after a 70+ point season and playoffs worthy of Conn Smythe talk.
A lot of the other guys in that arbitrary "tier" are mediocre-to-bad, which is why they may be cheap. But go ahead, maybe Klingberg+Barrie is the solution? A 37 year old Martinez and Nikita Zadorov would surely strike fear into the hearts of men..
There's a reason the quality guys either don't hit the market or get paid (Severson for example).
Who said Montour is signing for 4.5? I see him somewhere around 6 to 7 if he even comes close to the numbers from last year. See you do love SSS you pick his playoffs as his level and not the 8 other seasons of poor performance. Also his defensive partner was Marc Staal. How would you rate him? He cost 1 million. So to have a second pairing on your defence with a player that was Conn Smythe worthy should cost less than 5 million dollars. Neither player cost Florida anything to acquire. So how is 10 million not enough to find 2 top 4 defenders?
A 37 year old Martinez was more than fine as a top 4 dman on the cup champs and everyone talks about how good that defence was.
Again you only talked about 5 of the 15 dmen listed. Still only 1/3 which is a small sample size

Severson got 6 million so you pretty much proved my point that 10 million for 2 defencemen at that level would be approx. 10 million. one can get 6 and one can get 4. Or one can get 7 and one can get 3.
 

TS Quint

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I have a hard time believing Nylander is traded for futures (or even a Dman exclusively)

Unless we know for sure we have a RW replacement for what is lost while trading Nylander OR if a moonshot trade presents itself. I don’t see him getting moved, especially if it’s just for “future” asset management.
I agree, if Nylander is traded it’s a hockey trade. The Leafs would rather keep him and Lose him for nothing than downgrade to prospects while they are in their window.

But I don’t see the Leafs having the stones to trade Nylander. They have tunnel vision with their roster. They are too afraid to lose Nylander so Leafs will Leafs and will overpay to resign him.
 
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Pavels Dog

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Again you only talked about 5 of the 15 dmen listed. Still only 1/3 which is a small sample size
And only about 1/3rd of those guys probably make it to UFA anyway. There's a lot of assumptions to make Toronto's cap situation unproblematic. Even favorable contracts to Bertuzzi, Nylander, and two UFA d-men for a combined 10 mil still leaves very little room for the rest of the roster which includes little things like goaltending.
 

BobClarkesfrontteeth

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And only about 1/3rd of those guys probably make it to UFA anyway. There's a lot of assumptions to make Toronto's cap situation unproblematic. Even favorable contracts to Bertuzzi, Nylander, and two UFA d-men for a combined 10 mil still leaves very little room for the rest of the roster which includes little things like goaltending.
Maybe/Maybe not. It's a year away and lots of trades or poor seasons to be had.
7.4 million is plenty of room for a 6th dman, 11h and 12th forward as well as a goalie. Not to mention any Pyjama discounts that players give the Leafs.
But then this does play to the false narrative that the Leafs have to trade Slick Will because of cap reasons which lets all the Leaf haters sleep at night.
 

Pavels Dog

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Maybe/Maybe not. It's a year away and lots of trades or poor seasons to be had.
7.4 million is plenty of room for a 6th dman, 11h and 12th forward as well as a goalie. Not to mention any Pyjama discounts that players give the Leafs.
But then this does play to the false narrative that the Leafs have to trade Slick Will because of cap reasons which lets all the Leaf haters sleep at night.
Assuming that everyone with an interest in seeing Toronto make constructive moves towards winning a cup is a "hater" seems to be what helps Leafs fans sleep at night. Your roster construction designed to prove any cap concerns false barely gets them to a minimum size roster.
 

BobClarkesfrontteeth

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Assuming that everyone with an interest in seeing Toronto make constructive moves towards winning a cup is a "hater" seems to be what helps Leafs fans sleep at night. Your roster construction designed to prove any cap concerns false barely gets them to a minimum size roster.
How is that any different to what the current cup winners Vegas has done? Or 2/3 of the entire league does each year? Creating extra cap for 4th liners, 6/7 dmen types by trading a top six forward is not a winning strategy by any stretch.
 

FriendlyGhost92

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I have a hard time believing Nylander is traded for futures (or even a Dman exclusively)

Unless we know for sure we have a RW replacement for what is lost while trading Nylander OR if a moonshot trade presents itself. I don’t see him getting moved, especially if it’s just for “future” asset management.
He could always be traded for futures and then the futures be turned around for something else, though.
 

TheGroceryStick

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He could always be traded for futures and then the futures be turned around for something else, though.
Unless ‘something else’ is in stone, or part of a 3-way. I doubt the Leafs acquire the futures, only to ‘hope’ that they can be parlayed into something else.


——
Personally, I’d probably be down for downgrading at 2RW - if it meant getting a respectable 3C.

Someone like Jenner has always peaked my interest - as a 3C (with heavy mins on PK, 2PP and late game)
 

WetcoastOrca

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Wingers generally don’t return top D so I think expectations need to be lowered. Best case scenario is you pick up a second pairing guy who maybe is stuck in a deep D core. But there are not many teams in that position. Maybe Carolina?
 
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FriendlyGhost92

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Unless ‘something else’ is in stone, or part of a 3-way. I doubt the Leafs acquire the futures, only to ‘hope’ that they can be parlayed into something else.


——
Personally, I’d probably be down for downgrading at 2RW - if it meant getting a respectable 3C.

Someone like Jenner has always peaked my interest - as a 3C (with heavy mins on PK, 2PP and late game)
Unless they absolutely get hosed in a trade, the futures acquired would almost certainly return something of significant value.

Guys I would wonder about include Connor or Keller. I think they're all about on par as players, even though Nylander obviously gets the most attention. The difference in value would be that Connor and Keller both still have term.
 
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TheGroceryStick

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Part of me wonders
Rivalry aside - if the Bruins were hungry to keep the window open AND if they thought Nylander could be a C (he’s dabbled at it, but isn’t getting in ahead of AM or JT)


Debrusk + Carlo
For
Nylander + Liljgren


Carlo has a tidy contract and Debrusk is a UFA to be.
 

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