Confirmed with Link: Nylander signs extension of 8 years - 11.5M AAV

[Wiseguys]

What an idiotic contract, money and especially term. Mark my words there isn't anything more that Nylander has to prove to earn his contract. No need to get better or push himself further. He was lazy prior and floated around avoiding to get hit, he will start to regress sooner rather then later, just a matter of time. And on top of that a NMC, really? It stops the Leafs from potentially acquiring any type of assets. Talking about getting bent over.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Say in six years the cap is at 110M (about 4M per year increase), and players who put up 100 points are getting 13.5% (as happens now - Mitch is getting 13.38 and hasn't hit 100). That's almost 15M per season.

If someone is putting up 100 points and making 15, and Willy is putting up 70 points and making 11.5, is that so bad?

 

[seanlinden]

This is is the kind of deal that will help ensure the Leafs are constant "contenders", but never good enough to actually get over the hump. Jack Eichel is the only $10m player to win the cup; and it required a whole bunch of cap shenanigans to make it work. The Leafs now have 4 guys making $11m+.

I think it's also problematic from a timing standpoint.

The cap is projected to increase by $4m.... you've given up $1.6m of that to Matthews, and $4.5m of that to Nylander. This team is already the haves and have nots.... and it's going to get even worse. You're going to have to pull $2.1m away from the have nots, in a year where the cap is finally increasing, and those mid-tier players that have been squeezed for years, finally able to command a little more money. They've sewered themselves for 2024-25.

I guess you're now looking at the 2025-26 season as "we can win here" as presumably Tavares takes a huge paycut and Marner's raise probably not huge.

The proponents of this deal will constantly argue "better to overpay and commit to your core guys that run the team, than the Ilya Samsonovs or John Klingbergs of the world"... but it promotes and creates a highly problematic team culture, where if the guys making $10m+ at the top of the lineup aren't willing to leave money on the table for a chance at success, why should the mid-tier guy do it? Why should the mid-tier guy go to battle for them?

A team like Tampa gets it... it's not just the $4-5m you might save on the big 4 combined; its what those guys leaving money on the table does for the team dynamic.

 

[Squiffy]

Man, this whole 850 post thread must be a beaut lol. I will never find time in my life to read it all but a part of me wishes I could.

Ok, I’ll do a take.

Market value, yup. No discount there, didn’t expect one. No problem with the contract itself. If he maintains level of play it looks good by year 3 or 4.

We’ll never know if 10 was on the table in August from Willy’s camp, if the team missed that shame on them. Would have been the same thread as this at 10 in Aug tho.

The problem is the overall cap structure right? Willy at 11.5, that’s not nuts. Just the whole cap tied up in 4 forwards that is tieing us in to knots.

Just as hard to move off Marner coming up. JT needs to help us 25/26, and the cap better keep rising 5 a year. Neither is unrealistic.

GLG.

 

[centipede2233]

This is is the kind of deal that will help ensure the Leafs are constant "contenders", but never good enough to actually get over the hump. Jack Eichel is the only $10m player to win the cup; and it required a whole bunch of cap shenanigans to make it work. The Leafs now have 4 guys making $11m+.

I think it's also problematic from a timing standpoint.

The cap is projected to increase by $4m.... you've given up $1.6m of that to Matthews, and $4.5m of that to Nylander. This team is already the haves and have nots.... and it's going to get even worse. You're going to have to pull $2.1m away from the have nots, in a year where the cap is finally increasing, and those mid-tier players that have been squeezed for years, finally able to command a little more money. They've sewered themselves for 2024-25.

I guess you're now looking at the 2025-26 season as "we can win here" as presumably Tavares takes a huge paycut and Marner's raise probably not huge.

Correct, 2025/26 is where the window reopens. Next season is no chance at a cup, likely to miss playoffs

 

[notDatsyuk]

?????????
JT had 88 points in 82 games and had 47 goals in his 1st year here(7 more than willys career high) and was a PPG last year as well.

im not gonna continue to debate whether or not JT is going to take between 4-5 mil, or if he should even be forced to, because i dont know that. but if you think hes worth that and nylander is worth close to 3x times what JT is, then you do you. cheers.

You really have to read better.

I said "four + seasons". The highest ppg he has obtained in the last 4+ seasons is 80 points in 80 games = exactly 1, and not over.

 

[Divine]

other teams don't need to give all the money in 7 that he would get in 8 for it to be more profitable for Nylander, if he signed a 7 year deal he would sign a new contract and get money in year 8 anyways. for example if a team offered 12x7 all Nylander would need to brake even in year 8 on a new contract would be 7.5 million.

and lets be honest if he can't get that after year 7 on the open market what type of player are we going to have in year 6-8 making 11.5?

and a lot of teams can front load contracts.

7.5M is a lot of money for a 35 year old UFA. Do you think Tavares gets 7.5M on his next contract?

On a 35 year old contract, it doesn't matter if the contract is front-loaded - the cap hit will count even if he retires.

 

[Squiffy]

This is is the kind of deal that will help ensure the Leafs are constant "contenders", but never good enough to actually get over the hump. Jack Eichel is the only $10m player to win the cup; and it required a whole bunch of cap shenanigans to make it work. The Leafs now have 4 guys making $11m+.

I think it's also problematic from a timing standpoint.

The cap is projected to increase by $4m.... you've given up $1.6m of that to Matthews, and $4.5m of that to Nylander. This team is already the haves and have nots.... and it's going to get even worse. You're going to have to pull $2.1m away from the have nots, in a year where the cap is finally increasing, and those mid-tier players that have been squeezed for years, finally able to command a little more money. They've sewered themselves for 2024-25.

I guess you're now looking at the 2025-26 season as "we can win here" as presumably Tavares takes a huge paycut and Marner's raise probably not huge.

Gonna need some ELC’s playing. Minten, Woll, Hildeby, we’ll need some real production from those types of guys to repeat the Cup.

 

[hfman]

Willie has been playing his heart out.

Now we'll find out if he's been playing this hard just to get his money, or if he's been playing this hard because he wants to win.

The bad news is: now he has his money. Anyone who was convinced it's because 'he wants to win' has been proven wrong by this players' performance in prior seasons.

Let's see what happens here but my money says this kind of incredible play from him won't be sustained

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

The difference is Toronto drafted him 9 years ago, he wanted to stay here, it’s his home with his buds (joke intended). An acquiring team is taking a way bigger risk that he walks.

Toronto signs him if they decide they’ll pay his price, he wants to stay. Random other team, no guarantee at all he wants to stay, he’ll get the same or better price at a place of his choosing at that point as UFA.

OK, I buy that. Toronto had a hometown advantage. Good point.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Willie has been playing his heart out.

Now we'll find out if he's been playing this hard just to get his money, or if he's been playing this hard because he wants to win.

The bad news is: now he has his money. Anyone who was convinced it's because 'he wants to win' has been proven wrong by this players' performance in prior seasons.

Let's see what happens here but my money says this kind of incredible play from him won't be sustained

We'll have to see. But I have to mention once again, his dad had a history of "playing his heart out" in contract years. Dunno about you but even at 54 years old, I still take advice from my father more than anyone. Gonna be an interesting few years.

 

[seanlinden]

Correct, 2025/26 is where the window reopens. Next season is no chance at a cup, likely to miss playoffs

Leafs have a lot of work to do for 2025/26.... they're going to need a new 2nd line centre, because even assuming Tavares resigns, he's probably not cut out to be it anymore.

They've also got the challenge of having obliterated their draft classes for a number of years now. Out of 21 allotted picks in the last 3 drafts, they've only drafted 13 players (62%).

That number gets worse when you look at importance of picks. Only 1/3 years in the first round, 2/3 years in the 2nd round, and 1/3 years in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Its 41% of the picks they had been allotted in the first 4 rounds.

It's not like the future gets any brighter either in that regard. They're already down a 2nd rounder this year, a 1-2-4 gone in 2025, and a 2nd gone in 2026. They're almost certainly going to be buyers at the deadline, as they've got Klingberg's money to spend and could move on from Samsnov to clear more space.

Yes, it seems like the Leafs have made the most of their picks as Cowan has had a huge jump in production this year, Minten's showing in the early season combined with his PPG+ play despite joining his team late and then getting traded, and Knies' emergence... but don't count those chickens before they hatch.

 

[JKG33]

The GenZ Muskoka 4 everybody!

View attachment 799181

Man it's funny I was just thinking about that. For as much shit as we gave the Muskoka 5, these 4 are somehow far more embarrassing to be a fan of.

 

[Squiffy]

What an idiotic contract, money and especially term. Mark my words there isn't anything more that Nylander has to prove to earn his contract. No need to get better or push himself further. He was lazy prior and floated around avoiding to get hit, he will start to regress sooner rather then later, just a matter of time. And on top of that a NMC, really? It stops the Leafs from potentially acquiring any type of assets. Talking about getting bent over.

What do you do though, let him walk? Trade for something that will never be as good as Styles for 8?

 

[JKG33]

This is is the kind of deal that will help ensure the Leafs are constant "contenders", but never good enough to actually get over the hump. Jack Eichel is the only $10m player to win the cup; and it required a whole bunch of cap shenanigans to make it work. The Leafs now have 4 guys making $11m+.

For what it's worth Vegas' cap really wasn't that bad. That useless f*** Lehner rotting on LTIR made it look worse than it was.

But you're bang on there. And the even more telling part is $10m+ cap hits have been around for 8 years now, and it took 8 years for one to finally win the cup, as the cap went up. That ain't a coincidence. Just like LA and Chicago stopped winning when they had to pay Toews/Kane/Kopitar/Doughty that kind of money. But at least they got cups prior to the contracts, more than i can say for this sorry ass bunch

 

[Menzinger]

Correct, 2025/26 is where the window reopens. Next season is no chance at a cup, likely to miss playoffs

That seems unlikely

 

[wingman75]

Having lived through the 80's as a Leafs fan, I find it hard to complain that we have players like Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly.

I still don't know if they can get it done, but we have some of the best players on the planet on our team! I dunno if I can complain about that truthfully; certainly not in the big picture, but maybe in specific games or scenarios lol.

I hope they can find a way to have ultimate success.

GLG

 

[LeafEgo]

Interesting insight. Gotta think this is how Tre will approach Marner as well. Try to rebalance the team as long as it can be done sensibly. That's tough to do now but better late than never to try.

 

[Mess]

I don't know how anyone can look at the 7 years of playoff data, see having over half the cap spent on 4 forwards who regress and play well below the level of their regular season and cap hit peers come playoff time, and be happy with this complete and utter bullshit

Maybe management believed the core 4 playoff struggles were due to not getting paid enough, so the new plan is to pay them more to get more production.

If you pay them all among the highest in the league then they should produce among the best.

Heck if your not going to spend smarter then might as well spend harder as you have nothing to lose at this point.

 

[TheOne]

Don't forget all the opportunities to do so for regular season and playoff games series, fishing trips, dog walks, family get togethers and his morning defecation and anything else that one can blame and criticize Mitch for. Oh, oh and also when Auston goes through the odd slump, he can also take all the blame for that because he plays with the washed up over the hill JT instead of telling Keefe that he should play with the sainted one, he who can never be faulted nor blamed.

Settle down, Paul...

 

[sunstersun]

It leaves a bitter taste in my mouth that we had so much GM drama going into key contract/trade needs this offseason. I feel like Dubas just signs Nylander for 10 mil pre season.

 

[Mess]

The Salary Cap is expected to rise by $5 mil next year and by Leafs paying Nylander $11.5 mil up from his $7 mil current that uses up $4.5 of that increase to re-sign your own player.

So Leafs are essentially using that entire increase to re-sign one current player.

 

[mobilus]

Does Nylander have a NMC for this season?

 

[RunItBackAgain]

I’m assuming there is some condition involved where he cannot be traded before his NMC kicks in as well?

 

[arso40]

Does Nylander have a NMC for this season?

10 team no trade clause