Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[seanlinden]

I said this after the season ended.... and I'll say it again...

Change, with respect to putting team first, needs to come from the top.... that's Auston Matthews. If Matthews wasn't willing to play ball and put pen to paper on July 1 so that he could set the benchmark, then they probably needed to more strongly consider moving him.

You don't need to be a genius or have experience dealing with Lewis Gross to know that Nylander isn't going to want to get the "short end of the stick" by being the first to sign unless he's absolutely sure that he's getting top dollar. You also cannot allow this to drag out -- as trade options for him will close, and doing a mid-season deal because of a contract impasse is a great way to kill team morale.

Personally, I don't see a path forward for him without Matthews signed. He can't do a 4-7 year deal, as it takes him to his early-mid 30s where teams are going to be apprehensive about giving him much. He's either gotta do 2-3 and try to hit an increasing cap with a career-ending deal, or go the full 8.

To be honest, even if Matthews goes out and signs a 3-year deal at $12.5m, I'm not sure how you deal with Nylander. I guess he'd take a 2-year at $8.5m or $9m... but I don't think he's comfortable giving that 8-year term when Matthews is going to make $3.5m more than him, without term.

 

[Boxscore]

So "Others" means Matthews

Make no mistake, as it stands today, Matthews (and his pending contract) is the most important piece to resetting the culture of this team and putting the club in a position to build a legit Cup contender.

If he takes less and commits to the Leafs long-term it will set the tone others to follow his lead. If he leverages the Leafs to pay him close to max cap it will set the tone for others to follow his lead.

What is less? I'd say legit less is a long-term deal @ 12.25 per. However, 12.6 would be a win-win for both parties as it places Matthews next to MacKinnon as the highest paid player in NHL history until McDavid does his next deal, rightfully so. It also gives the Leafs resources (especially down the line once Tavares is up) to surround Matthews with better talent.

 

[Boxscore]

Change, with respect to putting team first, needs to come from the top.... that's Auston Matthews. If Matthews wasn't willing to play ball and put pen to paper on July 1 so that he could set the benchmark, then they probably needed to more strongly consider moving him.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. Imho Matthews is once again showing us who he is, believe him this time. Matthews is the most important player on this team and he's the only player who can reset the culture. Unless, of course, he's the problem.

 

[hamzarocks]

There's not? Goals are worth more than assists. Quality of linemates? (also known as the Zach Hyman factor) Ice Time? PP1 time? Yeah, it's definitely an argument. Sorry Dubas fan.

Goals aren't worth more than assists its something that became more Common when OV declined from being a contender for best player in the world

Also used for Matthews when his fans try to prop him up because hes a medicore point producer and cant generate assists like Drai/Mcdavid/Mack/Kuch

Marner has been much ahead of Nylander in production for like 4 out if last 5 tears

Per 82 games:
18-19: 94 pts vs 41 pts
19-20: 93 pts vs 71 pts
20-21: 100 pts vs 68 pts
21-22: 109 pts vs 81 pts
22-23: 101 pts vs 87 pts

Marner has been much further ahead 4 of the 5 years despite being a main stay on the PK and having more defensive responsibilities

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Make no mistake, as it stands today, Matthews (and his pending contract) is the most important piece to resetting the culture of this team and putting the club in a position to build a legit Cup contender.

If he takes less and commits to the Leafs long-term it will set the tone others to follow his lead. If he leverages the Leafs to pay him close to max cap it will set the tone for others to follow his lead.

What is less? I'd say legit less is a long-term deal @ 12.25 per. However, 12.6 would be a win-win for both parties as it places Matthews next to MacKinnon as the highest paid player in NHL history until McDavid does his next deal, rightfully so. It also gives the Leafs resources (especially down the line once Tavares is up) to surround Matthews with better talent.

Yeah, 12.6 per year would send a positive message that he's team-first while still being filthy rich.

Even if he has a bit of an ego, 12.7 per year is fair too in sending a message and still being top dog salary-wise until McDavid signs. But we all know he's looking at a minimum of 13-14 per year with a huge signing bonus, NMC, keys to the city, endorsements, and Treliving's left kidney.

Just unfortunate and nothing they can do about it due to the rarity of finding an adequate replacement.

 

[socko]

Goals aren't worth more than assists its something that became more Common when OV declined from being a contender for best player in the world

Also used for Matthews when his fans try to prop him up because hes a medicore point producer and cant generate assists like Drai/Mcdavid/Mack/Kuch

Marner has been much ahead of Nylander in production for like 4 out if last 5 tears

Per 82 games:
18-19: 94 pts vs 41 pts
19-20: 93 pts vs 71 pts
20-21: 100 pts vs 68 pts
21-22: 109 pts vs 81 pts
22-23: 101 pts vs 87 pts

Marner has been much further ahead 4 of the 5 years despite being a main stay on the PK and having more defensive responsibilities

You need people to pass to that can score to generate assists.

 

[Boxscore]

Just unfortunate and nothing they can do about it due to the rarity of finding an adequate replacement.

This is where I disagree with you a tad, the rest is spot on. One would think for 11.8 million the Matthews-lead Leafs would currently have won more than one round in 7 years while getting a player who scores more than 0.88 PPG in the playoffs.

If the Leafs can't build a deep enough team with Matthews making 11.8 how do we expect to be able to if his new ask is 13-14 mil per year? It will be the same vicious cycle all over again.

To your point, I don't think we need to find an adequate replacement -- if we trade Matthews it has to be for 11.8 (or 13-14 mil) worth of assets that makes us deeper and/or harder to play against when it matters most.

If Matthews leverages the Leafs to pay him 13-14+ million a year it's not just the huge cap hit that's a problem, it's also that our most skilled player is a selfish me-first person, and those people aren't the kind that lead teams to championships.

Like I said, the Leafs won 1 round in 7 years with Matthews. Replace him with two very good 6 million dollar players and there's a chance we would have won at least two rounds. We need to stop treating Matthews like he's prime Mario Lemieux for starters.

 

[Gabriel426]

Reilly must be livid with all this nonsense going on.

That’s why we also have a leadership problem where our Capt took all he can(that’s his right) and can’t say anything now. Unless he acknowledges the fact that he is overpaid and is hindering the Leafs to get good players to win the Cup. But he will never do that.

 

[ZEBROA]

Goals aren't worth more than assists its something that became more Common when OV declined from being a contender for best player in the world

Also used for Matthews when his fans try to prop him up because hes a medicore point producer and cant generate assists like Drai/Mcdavid/Mack/Kuch

Marner has been much ahead of Nylander in production for like 4 out if last 5 tears

Per 82 games:
18-19: 94 pts vs 41 pts
19-20: 93 pts vs 71 pts
20-21: 100 pts vs 68 pts
21-22: 109 pts vs 81 pts
22-23: 101 pts vs 87 pts

Marner has been much further ahead 4 of the 5 years despite being a main stay on the PK and having more defensive responsibilities

Marner is better. Nylander cant play his best with Tavares vice versa. Marner can. Nylander has been miss used way more. He would probably not catch Mitch in points anyway.

Dont care enough to look up how much difference second assist would make. I guess both Marner and more so Nylander make a fair share of those. And the point difference might be the same or bigger anyway.
But i absolutly think goals are worth more then second assist every day in the week.

Non of this matter because the besties are going to have to loose in the first round without Nylander. Hope the return are enough to get further in the playoffs.

 

[Boxscore]

Marner is better

Nylander is making less than 7 mil and Marner is almost at 11. Is Marner that much better than Nylander? Absolutely not. In a perfect world the Leafs would have a salary reset that is fair and realistic which looks something like:

Nylander - 8.75 mil x 8 (Meier deal)
Marner - 9.5 mil x 8 (Tkachuk deal)
Matthews - 12.6 x 8 (MacKinnon deal)

Nylander deserves more than his 6.8, Marner less than his 10.8, and Matthews max should be MacKinnon's 12.6.

 

[ZEBROA]

Nylander is making less than 7 mil and Marner is almost at 11. Is Marner that much better than Nylander? Absolutely not. In a perfect world the Leafs would have a salary reset that is fair and realistic which looks something like:

Nylander - 8.75 mil x 8 (Meier deal)
Marner - 9.5 mil x 8 (Tkachuk deal)
Matthews - 12.6 x 8 (MacKinnon deal)

Nylander deserves more than his 6.8, Marner less than his 10.8, and Matthews max should be MacKinnon's 12.6.

No arguing there

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Make no mistake, as it stands today, Matthews (and his pending contract) is the most important piece to resetting the culture of this team and putting the club in a position to build a legit Cup contender.

If he takes less and commits to the Leafs long-term it will set the tone others to follow his lead. If he leverages the Leafs to pay him close to max cap it will set the tone for others to follow his lead.

What is less? I'd say legit less is a long-term deal @ 12.25 per. However, 12.6 would be a win-win for both parties as it places Matthews next to MacKinnon as the highest paid player in NHL history until McDavid does his next deal, rightfully so. It also gives the Leafs resources (especially down the line once Tavares is up) to surround Matthews with better talent.

I think thevery least he signs for Is 12.7 I think he wants to be the undisputed top paid player.

12.7 achieves that

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Nylander is making less than 7 mil and Marner is almost at 11. Is Marner that much better than Nylander? Absolutely not. In a perfect world the Leafs would have a salary reset that is fair and realistic which looks something like:

Nylander - 8.75 mil x 8 (Meier deal)
Marner - 9.5 mil x 8 (Tkachuk deal)
Matthews - 12.6 x 8 (MacKinnon deal)

Nylander deserves more than his 6.8, Marner less than his 10.8, and Matthews max should be MacKinnon's 12.6.

Marner is worth more than 9.5 x 8. Tkachuk got that deal with one 100 point season and zero other PPG+ seasons.

Marner has been a PPG+ for 5 straight years, and is a better defensive player... And even if he was equivalent to Tkachuk, it would be over 10 mill just on cap increases alone.

Marner gives us a deal if he stays at 11 mill on an 87.5 mill cap (which is what the cap is rumoured to be next year). It is a 12.5% cap %, which is still one of the highest in the league for wingers (lower than Benn, Huberdeau, Panarin, and Pastrnak only), and considering he is one of the best wingers in the league, probably the right place for him to be. Wouldn't be surprised if he got 12.5 mill if he hit the open market so he'd be giving the Leafs a deal.

If Matthews is signing on an 83.5 mill cap, and gets the same cap percentage as MacKinnon, then he makes 12.8 mill. However, if he is signing on an 87.5 mill cap, he gets 13.4 mill. I'd expect he gets the latter, but not more than that.

I think with Nylander, you hope for anything in the 8.5-9 mill range... But it is probably not difficult for him to justify 9.5 mill right now. He is not worth 10 unless he puts up close to 100 points next year... And who knows, maybe he bets on himself to do just that.

 

[Gabriel426]

Marner is worth more than 9.5 x 8. Tkachuk got that deal with one 100 point season and zero other PPG+ seasons.

Marner has been a PPG+ for 5 straight years, and is a better defensive player... And even if he was equivalent to Tkachuk, it would be over 10 mill just on cap increases alone.

Marner gives us a deal if he stays at 11 mill on an 87.5 mill cap (which is what the cap is rumoured to be next year). It is a 12.5% cap %, which is still one of the highest in the league for wingers (lower than Benn, Huberdeau, Panarin, and Pastrnak only), and considering he is one of the best wingers in the league, probably the right place for him to be. Wouldn't be surprised if he got 12.5 mill if he hit the open market so he'd be giving the Leafs a deal.

If Matthews is signing on an 83.5 mill cap, and gets the same cap percentage as MacKinnon, then he makes 12.8 mill. However, if he is signing on an 87.5 mill cap, he gets 13.4 mill. I'd expect he gets the latter, but not more than that.

I think with Nylander, you hope for anything in the 8.5-9 mill range... But it is probably not difficult for him to justify 9.5 mill right now. He is not worth 10 unless he puts up close to 100 points next year... And who knows, maybe he bets on himself to do just that.

Sometime I wonder do other players and their agents use Cap % in future years(unknown) as a negotiating tool or is this just a Leafs thing.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Sometime I wonder do other players and their agents use Cap % in future years(unknown) as a negotiating tool or is this just a Leafs thing.

In this particular case, agents probably will because it is significant.

If it was supposed to be another 1 mill increase, probably not as much.

Although I can say with absolute certainty that they are using cap %, not real dollars.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Outside of Seider and Raymond...there isn't a lot there that appeals to me.

I dunno. Rasmussen is appealing. Could be another late bloomer like Tage Thompson. He is big, kinda mean, can skate and does have some skill. Stevie Y would have to package. I may get torched here but what about Willie /Lily for Rasmussen /Seider? Or even better Marner out instead of Willie.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

If we can get a Dubois like package for him, then maybe its a blessing in disguise but idk how I feel about moving Nylander

rather it Marner

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Ya, I would have taken that package for Nylander.

The Dubois trade is silly, Vilardi may end up being the best player from the trade.



If Nylander is making close to Marner, do you still want Nylander? Because it seems his next contract may be around that.

yes

I would say the taking shifts off and shying away from contact in the playoffs so noticeably last year really did not endear himself to someone like Shanahan.

See 2023, #16 and #34 vs Florida

 

[Dekes For Days]

How much money do you expect Marner to get and how many points do you expect for that? Break it down into goals and assists. Then do the same for Nylander. Ballpark numbers are good. Is Mitch a 30/100 guy? Is Willy a 40/90 guy? Because there is no way in hell that's a 4 million difference.

I mean, even if he signs an extension, we don't know how Marner will perform next year or what the cap will be, and it's not really this simplistic, but in rough terms, Nylander would be considered more of a 35 goal, 80 point guy, and Marner would be considered more of a 35 goal, 105 point guy. Add in Selke caliber defense instead of below average defense, and top tier PKing impacts, and the gap in their value is quite significant.

Purely offensively, I agree - Nylander is not equal, but better than Marner.

Lol. Funny. At least try to make your claims somewhat believable.

 

[MJ65]

Some bloggers strongly believe that they are going to trade him but the then these are just the speculations

 

[BLONG7]

Who cares if irrelevant people think that... Should McDavid and Draisaitl make less? They can't get it done.

I think their playoff performance is a tad better than the core 4 over the last few years......

As others have mentioned, this all starts with AM...............if he goes for the max deal he thinks he is worth, so will Willy and Marner, so........................

 

[notbias]

Out of the top 20 higheat paid players, only 6 have won a Cup and Eichel was just this year.

Everyone would agree that winning is the ultimate goal, but you still need to put a product on the ice that people will pay a tonne of money to come watch. The revenue through merchandise is huge when you have star power.

The Leafs have failed pretty miserably in the playoffs so far.

This year shows how quick it can all change with a deep run.

Tkachuk and Big Bob were considered busta and anvhors and playoff failures. Now every other post mentions how greay a warrior Tkachuk is. Deservedly so. He was great this year. Hopefully next year it is someone on the Leafs that steps up their game

Tkachuk and Bob playing well for 2 series does not erase all their playoff failures for anyone who can use logical thinking.

The fact 6 of the highest 20 paid players have won a cup to me means that it is not that big of a deal... 6 of 20 for winning the cup is not a bad percentage. In the last 8 years (max contract), only 6 teams have won the cup...

I think their playoff performance is a tad better than the core 4 over the last few years......

As others have mentioned, this all starts with AM...............if he goes for the max deal he thinks he is worth, so will Willy and Marner, so........................

Depends on the year. Draisaitl wasn't good this year and disappeared when they played a good team. They also seem to ignore one end of the ice a fair bit.

If every deal was signed on playoff performance, Tkachuk and Bobrovsky should be worth a combined 6 million.

 

[centipede2233]

Nylander is making less than 7 mil and Marner is almost at 11. Is Marner that much better than Nylander? Absolutely not. In a perfect world the Leafs would have a salary reset that is fair and realistic which looks something like:

Nylander - 8.75 mil x 8 (Meier deal)
Marner - 9.5 mil x 8 (Tkachuk deal)
Matthews - 12.6 x 8 (MacKinnon deal)

Nylander deserves more than his 6.8, Marner less than his 10.8, and Matthews max should be MacKinnon's 12.6.

Exactly, I always had nylander at 8.7. He shouldn’t be a higher caphit than Crosby. Yes Crosby signed his years ago, but it’s just the notion.

 

[jfc64]

Nylander was overpaid between 0.5M - 1M at the time [Comparables Pastranak, Ehlers]
Marner was overpaid between 1.5-2M at the time [Comparable Rantanen]
Matthews I have no idea.

The real bad decision was to pay Tavares 11 (!) million. To Dubas defense you could argue he had many ok players on the team that has since being paid higher elsewhere.

 

[13pacheco31]

I think their playoff performance is a tad better than the core 4 over the last few years......

As others have mentioned, this all starts with AM...............if he goes for the max deal he thinks he is worth, so will Willy and Marner, so........................

Even if Matthews leaves money on the table, doesn't mean Willy will