Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Nylanderthal]

So just insider rumors. What a surprise.

Let me guess... insider rumors only count as "fact" when they fit your narrative, right?

LIke I said, we know San Jose offered 13 mil because their gm said so. But TERM is just guesses based on rumors.

Stop presenting rumors as fact. STOP it.

This is incredibly rich and frankly pretty on the head for you

 

[kb]

If there is any truth to the RUMOR of a 10.5 ask from Nylander, I wonder if his camp is asking that high because Treliving is doing what many on this board want him to do, which is to lowball Nylander.

Rumours are $8 million. But like any other speculation.....

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes, obviously the middle ground is $9.0 to $9.5 million. But if we’re going to do a stupid song and dance about Auston Matthews and all the history of Dubas handing out candy to 34, 16 and 91 while Nylander was underpaid, we can’t go over $10.

Agreed. Maybe Willie just wants to make sure that Matthews is willing to settle for the middle ground as well and if instead, Matthews wants to milk the Leafs for every penny then I can't blame him Nylander deciding to test the UFA market.

how many of them can do about 80 to 90 percent in signing bonuses? essentially a buyout proof contract?

Good point, and hopefully our new GM will point this out during negotiations.

But lets back to what is below market value and stop trying to evaluate based on Willie sometimes being less mediocre in the playoffs than the other two. If he's better than Point or Ranta or Tkachuk or Kaprizov then he should get paid more than them. But he isn't and none of them make more than $9.5M per. So asking Willie to sign for between $8.8 and $9.5 isn't asking a favor of him. $10M+ is setting the market again and not by a couple hundred K. If he legit thinks he is a $10.5M player because of what Mitch and AM get paid then he really needs to go to a team with no all stars on it so he isn't looking up at anyone. Its time.

Maybe he just thinks that if M&M both want to be overpaid (again), then why shouldn't he get overpaid as well? UFA's get overpaid, that's the general rule so whatever the Leafs are willing to pay him, he can probably get more if he waits another year.

 

[socko]

I think if you're really going to compare players using pts. per 60, the points and the minutes need to be broken down into Even Strength, Power Play, and Penalty Kill. Because most of Marner's extra minutes come on the PK, wherer there is less of a chance of scoring points, any kind of pts. per 60 measure that includes those minutes seems slightly unfair to Marner.

And for those arguing that Nylander puts up a lot of his points playing on the second line, how much of the presumed lower quality of teammates is canceled out by the opposition likely concentrating more defense on line 1?

I may be completely wrong about this, but I think these are some things to think about when comparing players.

So you're saying Zach Hyman is a legit 83 point player?

 

[ULF_55]

 

[tuckerintensity]

Yes, obviously the middle ground is $9.0 to $9.5 million. But if we’re going to do a stupid song and dance about Auston Matthews and all the history of Dubas handing out candy to 34, 16 and 91 while Nylander was underpaid, we can’t go over $10.

We're not and Willie doesn't actually think they will. Nor do I think Treliving actually thinks Willie will sign for 8.

The disconnect is the overreaction to anything Willie is rumoured to have said like it's something it's not.

Well, it's apparently also that you think any of those three are currently overpaid. They aren't. Willie has actually been ridiculous value at less than 7.

 

[PromisedLand]

I see the new 10.5 rumor as such:

if Willy is seeking 10.5 AAV approx the max he could get from other teams in the UFA market is 7 year deal

10.5 x 7 = 73.5M with other teams with probability of not as lucrative in terms of signing bonuses and front loading the contract
OR
9.2 x 8 = Approx 73.5M with the leafs at max with front loaded signing bonuses.

I really don't think anyone will pay Nylander more than 9.5 a max AAV on the 7 year deal in the UFA market

9.5x7= 66.5M approx

66.5M on 8 year term comes to about 8.32 AAV which can be handsomely front loaded with signing bonuses.

I think Willy is overvaluing himself with 10.5, I really do not think anyone in the league would pay him 10.5 or even 10. Desperate team would pay at max about 9.5 AAV for a total of 66.5M IMO

Hopefully Treliving is doing some similar math with a take it or leave it scenario

 

[nuck]

Agreed. Maybe Willie just wants to make sure that Matthews is willing to settle for the middle ground as well and if instead, Matthews wants to milk the Leafs for every penny then I can't blame him Nylander deciding to test the UFA market.

Maybe he just thinks that if M&M both want to be overpaid (again), then why shouldn't he get overpaid as well? UFA's get overpaid, that's the general rule so whatever the Leafs are willing to pay him, he can probably get more if he waits another year.

That seems like something my little brother would expect because he thinks dads money is infinite
I agree Willie needs to test the UFA market and the Leafs need the cap space. Its a win-win and the club makes the statement that they are running the show now and not the player agents. AM may still put the blocks to them but that's what happens with a NM in the last year of a deal, and if they are going to overpay it makes sense it be their best player. Not all 3 of them.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

There's a higher chance I have a threesome with Sofia Vergara and Salma Hayek than a chance those guys take a pay cut.

Don't give up the dream brother, never give up the dream

 

[Stephen]

We're not and Willie doesn't actually think they will. Nor do I think Treliving actually thinks Willie will sign for 8.

The disconnect is the overreaction to anything Willie is rumoured to have said like it's something it's not.

Well, it's apparently also that you think any of those three are currently overpaid. They aren't. Willie has actually been ridiculous value at less than 7.

There’s no overreaction. I just don’t like the constant whataboutism and upward spiral of undeserving overpayments based on flimsy in-house precedents by a kid GM who couldn’t figure out if he was a boss or a friend.

We’re not even talking about a team friendly deal as a starting point for Nylander. It’s market rate vs a massive overpay. And as much as I eyeroll at Matthews’ rumoured ask… The guy has a Hart, Lindsay, Calder, 2x Rockets.

Willie’s claim to fame is had a “big playoffs” with a whopping 4 goals. He was also the guy who coughed up the puck at 2-1 vs Florida in Game 2 at center ice that set in motion the collapse in round 2. FFS read the room.

 

[Buds17]

Nylander was overpaid between 0.5M - 1M at the time [Comparables Pastranak, Ehlers]
Marner was overpaid between 1.5-2M at the time [Comparable Rantanen]
Matthews I have no idea.

I was referring to the trio of Reaves, Kampf and Klingberg in that post.

 

[Apotheosis]

My detachment to the team at large extends far. Nylander was easily the best of the 4 "core" guys in the playoffs but being the best of a bunch of duds isn't really all that impressive. If you can get a guy like Quinn Hughes for a package involving Nylander, you do it 100 percent. With Bertuzzi, Domi and also the emergence of Knies, there is no excuse for the lack of sandpaper in the top 6 for Matthews and Marner and with Klingberg in a sheltered role and POTENTIALLY a package for Nylander for another good D, the team will be more well rounded and excuses can and should be slim to none.

 

[socko]

There’s no overreaction. I just don’t like the constant whataboutism and upward spiral of undeserving overpayments based on flimsy in-house precedents by a kid GM who couldn’t figure out if he was a boss or a friend.

We’re not even talking about a team friendly deal as a starting point for Nylander. It’s market rate vs a massive overpay. And as much as I eyeroll at Matthews’ rumoured ask… The guy has a Hart, Lindsay, Calder, 2x Rockets.

Willie’s claim to fame is had a “big playoffs” with a whopping 4 goals. He was also the guy who coughed up the puck at 2-1 vs Florida in Game 2 at center ice that set in motion the collapse in round 2. FFS read the room.

Like another post said, I think Willy is looking more at Marner and not getting the discrepancy. I have to 100% agree with it. The discrepancy on ice does not match the discrepancy in the paycheck.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That seems like something my little brother would expect because he thinks dads money is infinite
I agree Willie needs to test the UFA market and the Leafs need the cap space. Its a win-win and the club makes the statement that they are running the show now and not the player agents. AM may still put the blocks to them but that's what happens with a NM in the last year of a deal, and if they are going to overpay it makes sense it be their best player. Not all 3 of them.

It has nothing to do with money being infinite, that's nothing but a pointless strawman. Willie can probably get 10 million next summer and if M&M are both going to try to get every penny they can and not give up even a little bit in order to help the team win, what's the motivation for Willie to take less to stay here?

 

[ULF_55]

Kadri for unsigned Nylander.

Now half the fans s/b happy.

Matthews gets his $14mm.

 

[notbias]

Nylander was overpaid between 0.5M - 1M at the time [Comparables Pastranak, Ehlers]
Marner was overpaid between 1.5-2M at the time [Comparable Rantanen]
Matthews I have no idea.

Nylander is in between the Ehlers and Pastrnak contracts, how is he overpaid by up to 1 million when he is between his comparables?

 

[ToDavid]

Rumours are $8 million. But like any other speculation.....

To be fair, we've heard "starting with an 8", not $8 million. Maybe it was their starting point, but I doubt the team seriously thinks they're getting him for $8 million even.

 

[socko]

If Matthews had back to back 60 goal seasons and showed no signs of wrist problems following the surgery, I would give him that 14 million. At this point, the Leafs need to put their foot down, consider all the factors, and set a fair market value. And if they want more than that, move them. Time to set a new precedent that doesn't smell like Dubas.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I'm good with Nylander. He's a valuable and over-looked player on our team. Marner and Matthews get the spotlight disproportionately compared to him.

Rielly started things with leaving money on the table, and I bet 1000% if Tavares was allowed to renegotiate his contract he would also leave money on the table. Those are the 2 real Captain's of this team, on the ice and off it.

It's Matthews and Marner who thus far have shown an inability to do anything that didn't involve the most money at the most favorable term to them.

They say they love it here and want to win, but thus far they've won nothing and have directly contributed to the inability of the Leafs to fill out their roster. No they couldn't predict a pandemic and the Salary Cap freeze, so they get that one free.

However, squeezing every penny again, and taking the best deal for themselves just shows again that they are full of shit and it's literally a pigs to the trough mindset with M&M.

They got generous deals the 1st time around, they saw 1st hand how disproportionate cap allocation directly affects the teams competitiveness. It's now time for them to walk the walk after talking the talk, and it starts with Matthews.

Well said.

 

[ToDavid]

Kadri for unsigned Nylander.

Now half the fans s/b happy.

Matthews gets his $14mm.

Nylander from 28 to 35 at $10m is still a lot better than Kadri from 32 to 38 at $7m.

 

[rojac]

I don't know if this is a useful comparison or not, but the first season that all three of Nylander, Matthews, and Marner were all on their current contracts was 2019-20. Their combined salaries that season (11.634+10.903+6.962=29.499) was 36.2% of the 81.5 cap.

So, in 25-26, when all 3 new deals will have kicked in, if Nylander is at 9.5, Matthews at 13.0 and Marner at 12.0, that would be 34.5 of a projected cap of 92 or 36.96% and Tavares would be gone or on a lower contract.

If somehow, they got Nylander down to 8.8, Matthews to 12.634, and Marner to 11.75, that would be 36.06% of the cap -- so arguably a slightly better deal than last time.

 

[I am Canadian]

Nylander is in between the Ehlers and Pastrnak contracts, how is he overpaid by up to 1 million when he is between his comparables?

Pastranak was signed for 6.66M, Nylander is at 6.9M.

Pastranak signed coming off a 70P season [75 games] and Nylander I believe had 62P.

 

[kb]

To be fair, we've heard "starting with an 8", not $8 million. Maybe it was their starting point, but I doubt the team seriously thinks they're getting him for $8 million even.

Agreed. But it makes sense if Nylander's ask is high and not coming down....

 

[ToDavid]

I see the new 10.5 rumor as such:

if Willy is seeking 10.5 AAV approx the max he could get from other teams in the UFA market is 7 year deal

10.5 x 7 = 73.5M with other teams with probability of not as lucrative in terms of signing bonuses and front loading the contract
OR
9.2 x 8 = Approx 73.5M with the leafs at max with front loaded signing bonuses.

I really don't think anyone will pay Nylander more than 9.5 a max AAV on the 7 year deal in the UFA market

9.5x7= 66.5M approx

66.5M on 8 year term comes to about 8.32 AAV which can be handsomely front loaded with signing bonuses.

I think Willy is overvaluing himself with 10.5, I really do not think anyone in the league would pay him 10.5 or even 10. Desperate team would pay at max about 9.5 AAV for a total of 66.5M IMO

Hopefully Treliving is doing some similar math with a take it or leave it scenario

Is he forced to retire after the end of the 7 year contract?

He would be 34 when a 7-year contract ends. Impossible to predict from here but if the cap goes up significantly he may not even take a pay cut on that 8th year.

 

[kb]

Pastranak was signed for 6.66M, Nylander is at 6.9M.

Pastranak signed coming off a 70P season [75 games] and Nylander I believe had 62P.

Cap % - he was in between the 2.

Nylander was coming off back to back 60 point seasons, Pasternak off his first one over 30 (70 pts).