Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[hamzarocks]

Through the 3 years prior to signing, Matthews has been better at 5v5 (3.04 > 2.85, 2.63 > 2.35) and comparable on the PP (6.34 < 6.92, 4.89 > 4.59), despite playing half his sample injured. He's better defensively, and he's younger. He'd be more valuable. In fact, unless I've missed somebody, he's the most valuable UFA to ever sign a currently legal contract in the cap era until McDavid's UFA deal comes along. Mackinnon would have been closer if he signed this offseason, since he just had a career year.

Nope contracts being given out on per 60 stats lead to albatross like the current big 4 deals and 5 years of failures

Look at Mackinnons league wide fonoshes in major voting awards, all star teams etc. Matthews has the better peak, but Mackinnon is far more consistent

He has been a top 5 player longer than Matthews (2018 vs 2021)

Matthews also isnt more valuable then Crosby was when he signed his deal or then Malkin/OV on their deals

Matthews being injured half that time is a nice excuse to justify continued failure but one that doesn't impact contract negotiations. When your playing 70+ games and underperforming its easy to pretend you underperformed because of injuries.

 

[Legion34]

Nope contracts being given out on per 60 stats lead to albatross like the current big 4 deals and 5 years of failures

Look at Mackinnons league wide fonoshes in major voting awards, all star teams etc. Matthews has the better peak, but Mackinnon is far more consistent

He has been a top 5 player longer than Matthews (2018 vs 2021)

Matthews also isnt more valuable then Crosby was when he signed his deal or then Malkin/OV on their deals

Matthews being injured half that time is a nice excuse to justify continued failure but one that doesn't impact contract negotiations. When your playing 70+ games and underperforming its easy to pretend you underperformed because of injuries.

In what way is mackinnon more consistent????

 

[DarkKnight]

In what way is mackinnon more consistent????

Guy scored 13 goals when they won the CUP in 2022. Would you guys sit down, it’s embarrassing. It’s like success doesn’t matter around here, what a world. Big sexy folds in big moments, MacKinnon delivered the only thing that matters in sport, WINNING. Back to participation medal thinking….

 

[hamzarocks]

In what way is mackinnon more consistent????

Mack 2017-2018 to this year

553 pts in 409 games or a 111 pt player per 82

Matthews 2017-2018 to this year

473 pts in 399 games or a 97 pt player per 82

If you look from 2018-2019 onwards

It becomes 112 pts per 82 for Mack vs 100 pts per 82 Matthews

2019-2020 to now

116 pts vs 103 pts

2020-2021 to now

118 pts vs 106

2021-2022 to now

120 pts vs 107

Mackinnon is right there with Matthews if you value goals very highly more then total production. If you value total production than Mack is ahead. Playoffs brings it even further.

Arguing Matthews is more valuable and worth really much more than 12.6M x 8 is just absurd

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nope contracts being given out on per 60 stats lead to albatross like the current big 4 deals

The big 4 aren't on albatross contracts, and whether you personally like it or not, measures of quality and impact beyond just raw points are considered in contract negotiations. Funny enough, the 5v5 production being per 60 actually benefits Mackinnon in this comparison. Teams aren't paid for things like their team's PP time. They are paid for their individual quality and impact. Raw production is just a rough proxy for that. It is not the sole determinant that can never be misleading that some people treat it as. Heck, even by raw production, Matthews would be more valuable, because his defensive value alone would outweigh the small gap in P/GP.

Matthews has the better peak, but Mackinnon is far more consistent

Mackinnon had 4 out of 9 seasons at a high level. That's not consistent. Matthews has the better peak, and was better overall through the years prior to signing.

Matthews also isnt more valuable then Crosby was when he signed his deal or then Malkin/OV on their deals

Crosby never signed a currently legal UFA contract. Ovechkin's only UFA contract covered his later 30s.
Malkin is probably the closest, but would have a tough argument to be more valuable. And Malkin pretty clearly took a discount anyway.

Matthews being injured half that time is a nice excuse to justify continued failure but one that doesn't impact contract negotiations.

I mean, he doesn't even need that context to be better, but it's still important context.

 

[Legion34]

Mack 2017-2018 to this year

553 pts in 409 games or a 111 pt player per 82

Matthews 2017-2018 to this year

473 pts in 399 games or a 97 pt player per 82

If you look from 2018-2019 onwards

It becomes 112 pts per 82 for Mack vs 100 pts per 82 Matthews

2019-2020 to now

116 pts vs 103 pts

2020-2021 to now

118 pts vs 106

2021-2022 to now

120 pts vs 107

Mackinnon is right there with Matthews if you value goals very highly more then total production. If you value total production than Mack is ahead. Playoffs brings it even further.

Arguing Matthews is more valuable and worth really much more than 12.6M x 8 is just absurd

1.) That’s not what consistent means

2.) if you want to talk about who is better. Matthews could literally take the next 3 full seasons off being biebers back up dancer and still have 15 more goals Thant mack at the same years he is now

 

[hamzarocks]

The big 4 aren't on albatross contracts, and whether you personally like it or not, measures of quality and impact beyond just raw points are considered in contract negotiations. Funny enough, the 5v5 production being per 60 actually benefits Mackinnon in this comparison. Teams aren't paid for things like their team's PP time. They are paid for their individual quality and impact. Raw production is just a rough proxy for that. It is not the sole determinant that can never be misleading that some people treat it as. Heck, even by raw production, Matthews would be more valuable, because his defensive value alone would outweigh the small gap in P/GP.

Mackinnon had 4 out of 9 seasons at a high level. That's not consistent. Matthews has the better peak, and was better overall through the years prior to signing.

Crosby never signed a currently legal UFA contract. Ovechkin's only UFA contract covered his later 30s.
Malkin is probably the closest, but would have a tough argument to be more valuable. And Malkin pretty clearly took a discount anyway.

I mean, he doesn't even need that context to be better, but it's still important context.

Matthews is a middle of the pack 1C defensively. He isnt a matchup defensive center who goes and has to shut down a team

Defense is already very overrated for forwards and mostly strcuture based its what less talented players like Bergeron, toews, kopitar etc used to get propped up vs signifciantly better players

Now Mack vs Matthews isnt a significantly better player. They are comparable and close with the edge to Mack for consistency in my opinion.

Matthews has 2 or 3 elite high end years - 2021 and 2022 for sure and maybe 2020

Mack has 6

2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023

I showed in a post above the per 82 game production comes to a 10-15 pt gap between Matthews and Mack vs 2018

If you argue goal scoring + defense make that up well good luck to you. Even then 12.6M x 8 was what Mack got. Matthews shouldnt come more than 13M x 8 full stop

 

[hamzarocks]

That’s not what consistent means

Lol what does consistent mean?

Mackinnon is producing consistently at a high level. He is amongst the league leaders more often than Matthews is.

Matthews has the best individual year for sure in 2022.

Mackinnon doesn't have down years like Matthews 2018, 2019, 2023 years since he broke out.

Mackinnon has more top 5 hart finishes, better overall finishes for ALL NHL teams (2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd) vs Matthews (1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th). Both are the sane position at C(toughest position to make all NHL team)

 

[Arzak]

Tavares, Isles #1C >> Nylander, Leafs #2RW. Yup Tavares was overpaid but you are comparing apples to oranges IMO.

Tavares was signed as 2C. Not to mention cap went up.

Fairly comparable now. Maybe not when JT was with Isles, but that got no merit on what's Nylander worth/asking at this point. JTs cap hit on the other hand, very relevant.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews is a middle of the pack 1C defensively.

Matthews is elite defensively.

Now Mack vs Matthews isnt a significantly better player. They are comparable and close with the edge to Mack for consistency
Matthews has 2 or 3 elite high end years - 2021 and 2022 for sure and maybe 2020
Mack has 6
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023

Matthews would be a more valuable player at time of signing. He is better offensively, better defensively, and younger.
This idea that Mackinnon had been more consistent is wrong. At time of signing, Mackinnon had 4 out of 9 seasons at a high level. Matthews has 5 out of 7 seasons at a high level. And both Matthews' highs and lows were better than Mackinnon's highs and lows.

 

[hamzarocks]

Matthews is elite defensively.

Matthews would be a more valuable player at time of signing. He is better offensively, better defensively, and younger.
This idea that Mackinnon had been more consistent is wrong. At time of signing, Mackinnon had 4 out of 9 seasons at a high level. Matthews has 5 out of 7 seasons at a high level. And both Matthews' highs and lows were better than Mackinnon's highs and lows.

Nope yur wrong again but that isn't surprising.

Mack was elite 2018 to 2022 at the time of his signing that is 5 years

Matthews was elite 2 or maybe 3 if you are being generous. I dont know which 3 of 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023 you are pretending were elite years and better than Mackinnons 2022 season which for some reason your omitting despite it being better than any of those Matthews seasons

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Tavares, Isles #1C >> Nylander, Leafs #2RW. Yup Tavares was overpaid but you are comparing apples to oranges IMO.

I don't get this post. Tavares being NYI #1 center doesn't mean anything to Toronto where he'd be #2 center. That contract was offered anyways.

Tavares was 16th in points in 2018 going into ufa. Nylander was 20th (with MORE goals and points) with still another rfa year. Pretty damn close.

I can totally see why (based on internal cap) Nylander would demand around 10-11 mil to stay. Makes total sense to me. Trev needs to somehow convince the players that Dubas's unprecedented dramatic overpayments no longer apply to internal cap structures. But I wouldn't blame Nylander for rejecting that. Based on Dubas's psychotic internal cap structures, Nylander IS worth 11 mil.

 

[hamzarocks]

I don't get this post. Tavares being NYI #1 center doesn't mean anything to Toronto where he'd be #2 center. That contract was offered anyways.

Tavares was 16th in points in 2018 going into ufa. Nylander was 20th (with MORE goals and points) with still another rfa year. Pretty damn close.

I can totally see why (based on internal cap) Nylander would demand around 10-11 mil to stay. Makes total sense to me. Trev needs to somehow convince the players that Dubas's unprecedented dramatic overpayments no longer apply to internal cap structures. But I wouldn't blame Nylander for rejecting that. Based on Dubas's psychotic internal cap structures, Nylander IS worth 11 mil.

Trev needs to deal nylander and not follow the structure set by the man that blew 5 year contention window

 

[Dekes For Days]

Mack was elite 2018 to 2022 at the time of his signing that is 5 years
Matthews was elite 2 or maybe 3 if you are being generous.

If the argument is that Mackinnon was elite every year since 2017-2018, then Matthews has been elite since at least the same year, without the bad years sprinkled before it.

 

[hamzarocks]

If the argument is that Mackinnon was elite every year since 2017-2018, then Matthews has been elite since at least the same year, without the bad years sprinkled before it.

I said from 2017-2018 onwards which meant to include that year.

Matthews 2018, 2019 seasons were not that of a top 10 player while Mack's were.

Matthews ELC to ELC is of course better than Mack who had 2-3 bad years after a great rookie season. That is why Mack made 6M and change vs Matthews breaking the bank.

His current deal though should be very similar to Mackinnons current deal

Mackinnon the last 6 seasons in total is the 2nd-4th best player in the league along with Kucherov and Drasaitl

Matthews is at best 5th as he had down years in 2018, 2019, 2023 which are not at that level.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In what way is mackinnon more consistent????

MacKinnon career playoffs g/82: 49 p/82: 106

Matthews career playoffs g/82: 36 p/82: 72

Add in a cup and 8 playoff series wins compared to (LOL) one.

That's how MacKinnon is more consistent than Matthews, Legion34. THAT'S how.

THHHHHAAATTTSSS HOOOOWWWWW!!!

THAT'S how legion34. THAT. IS. HOW.

THAT. Those numbers above. THAT'S how.

 

[hamzarocks]

MacKinnon career playoffs g/82: 49 p/82: 106

Matthews career playoffs g/82: 36 p/82: 72

That's how MacKinnon is more consistent than Matthews, Legion34. THAT'S how.

THHHHHAAATTTSSS HOOOOWWWWW!!!

THAT'S how legion34. THAT. IS. HOW.

THAT. Those numbers above. THAT'S how.

That makes it much worse. Regular season wise he has been better the last 6 years as well

 

[Dekes For Days]

I said from 2017-2018 onwards which meant to include that year.

Yes, I know. Statement still holds true. These gaps you think exist that make one player elite and one not in these years are just differences in PP time, not player quality and impact.

Mackinnon the last 6 seasons in total is the 2nd-4th best player in the league along with Kucherov and Drasaitl

Since 2017-2018...

Matthews: 2.85 P/60 at 5v5 (0.75 P/GP), 2.47 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.65 P1/GP), 6.43 P/60 on the PP, 4.92 P1/60 on the PP
Mackinnon: 2.79 P/60 at 5v5 (0.74 P/GP), 2.30 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.61 P1/GP), 6.92 P/60 on the PP, 4.61 P1/60 on the PP

And that's including Mackinnon's career year that had not happened when he signed.

 

[hamzarocks]

Yes, I know. Statement still holds true. These gaps you think exist that make one player elite and one not in these years are just differences in PP time, not player quality and impact.

Since 2017-2018...

Matthews: 2.85 P/60 at 5v5 (0.75 P/GP), 2.47 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.65 P1/GP), 6.43 P/60 on the PP, 4.92 P1/60 on the PP
Mackinnon: 2.79 P/60 at 5v5 (0.74 P/GP), 2.30 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.61 P1/GP), 6.92 P/60 on the PP, 4.61 P1/60 on the PP

And that's including Mackinnon's career year that had not happened when he signed.

You don't get credit for nor producing vs actually doing so. Matthews 2018, 2019, and 2023 seasons are simply not at the level of a top 10 player. His hart voting, point finishes, ALL NHL team finishes all share the same story.

But even with that, If your arguing Mack and Matthews are neck and neck and super close as the per 60 stats show, fine lets accept that

13M x 8 is maxmimum he gets.

Anything above that becomes an overpay and any reduction in term just further overpays Matthews who gets another player friendly deal

Of course we won't bring playoff production into contract negotiations for the leafs players because they see their productions fall off by 15-20 pts while Mackinnon is amongst the very best still

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Tavares at 11M was absurd money. Dude was a top 20 player getting the 2nd highest AAV at the time. He has just continued to fall down being a borderline top 40-50 guy now


Matthews wasnt a top 5 player in tbe game last year but was 2 before that. We will see this season

He better get 13M by 8 not 4 or 5 b.s when a better player in Mack signed for 12.6M by 8

If Nylander would do 9 or even 9.25M he probably would have been signed by now. He wants 10M+ and is looking to drag this out

Marner will likely be overpaid heavily. He will again be within 500K of Matthews while all his comps make a lot less Rantanen will make less than Mack, on this deal while Marner likely makes more than that with how this team overpays its players)

I wish that in an alternate universe that Reilly was made captain and his signing of an 8yr deal at well below market value made a difference to these other bobo's that keep worrying if another player is making too much more than them....but alas...I am stuck in this one...Mandella effect not withstanding.

 

[Legion34]

Lol what does consistent mean?

Mackinnon is producing consistently at a high level. He is amongst the league leaders more often than Matthews is.

Matthews has the best individual year for sure in 2022.

Mackinnon doesn't have down years like Matthews 2018, 2019, 2023 years since he broke out.

Mackinnon has more top 5 hart finishes, better overall finishes for ALL NHL teams (2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd) vs Matthews (1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th). Both are the sane position at C(toughest position to make all NHL team)

You literally ignored 40% of his sample size which was completely inconsistent.

You don't get credit for nor producing vs actually doing so. Matthews 2018, 2019, and 2023 seasons are simply not at the level of a top 10 player. His hart voting, point finishes, ALL NHL team finishes all share the same story.

But even with that, If your arguing Mack and Matthews are neck and neck and super close as the per 60 stats show, fine lets accept that

13M x 8 is maxmimum he gets.

Anything above that becomes an overpay and any reduction in term just further overpays Matthews who gets another player friendly deal

Of course we won't bring playoff production into contract negotiations for the leafs players because they see their productions fall off by 15-20 pts while Mackinnon is amongst the very best still

You don’t get credit for producing vs actually but you are using per 82?

Again matthews has 15 more goals in his career with 3 less seasons.

You are comparing a 19-25 vs what 23-27?

 

[Dekes For Days]

You don't get credit for nor producing vs actually doing so.

They produced the same. You don't get credit for unearned PP time differences, and PP time doesn't make you elite.
You're giving Mackinnon credit for games not played, but refuse to acknowledge the impact of PP time.

But even with that, If your arguing Mack and Matthews are neck and neck and super close as the per 60 stats show, fine lets accept that
13M x 8 is maxmimum he gets.

Except as I mentioned, that includes Mackinnon's career year last year that was not a factor in his contract. With that removed, it becomes this:
Mackinnon: 2.68 P/60 at 5v5 (0.70 P/GP), 2.20 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.58 P1/GP), 6.90 P/60 on the PP, 4.72 P1/60 on the PP
12.75m would be an equivalent contract to Mackinnon, but you add in the gap offensively, the gap defensively, and Matthews being younger, and it's easy to see why he's going to be in the 13s.

 

[hamzarocks]

You literally ignored 40% of his sample size which was completely inconsistent.



You don’t get credit for producing vs actually but you are using per 82?

Again matthews has 15 more goals in his career with 3 less seasons.

You are comparing a 19-25 vs what 23-27?

Im comparing their past 6 years leading up to Matthews current deal

No one will ever use ELC years to discuss a 3rd contract. Pretending to do so is only happening b/c Mack outproduced Matthews heavily the past 6 years

Also I showed you Mack has significantly more points in 10 less games since 2017-2018.

Matthews will be measured against Mack, drai, Kuch and he is behind all of them since 2017-2018

They produced the same. You don't get credit for unearned PP time differences, and PP time doesn't make you elite.
You're giving Mackinnon credit for games not played, but refuse to acknowledge the impact of PP time.

Except as I mentioned, that includes Mackinnon's career year last year that was not a factor in his contract. With that removed, it becomes this:
Mackinnon: 2.68 P/60 at 5v5 (0.70 P/GP), 2.20 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.58 P1/GP), 6.90 P/60 on the PP, 4.72 P1/60 on the PP
12.75m would be an equivalent contract to Mackinnon, but you add in the gap offensively, the gap defensively, and Matthews being younger, and it's easy to see why he's going to be in the 13s.

The gap offensively is in Mack's favour as shown in a post above

Matthews is a 97 pt player since 2017-2018 vs Mackinnon a 110 pt player

You will pretend Matthews has been as productive as him when in realilty he hasnt

Hopefully Treliving isn't a clown like dubas was and give Matthews whatever he wants

Also again nice to ignore playoff production. Dekeing things that don't go in your favour and just focusing on the narrative which works for you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The gap offensively is in Mack's favour as shown in a post above

The gap offensively is not in Mackinnon's favour. The gap offensively is in Matthews' favour. The gap in PP time is in Mackinnon's favour, for unearned reasons, but that's irrelevant to his individual quality and impact.

You will pretend Matthews has been as productive as him when in realilty he hasnt

Matthews has actually been more productive. You may think that PP time makes somebody better, but it doesn't, and everybody involved in contract negotiations knows that.

Also again nice to ignore playoff production.

I've discussed playoff production plenty. Because of how highly valued it is by fans, many cannot accept how little it matters for contracts compared to the much bigger and more representative sample of the regular season, or how much context needs to be considered to try and compare across two different team's unique playoff situations.

 

[hamzarocks]

The gap offensively is not in Mackinnon's favour. The gap offensively is in Matthews' favour. The gap in PP time is in Mackinnon's favour, for unearned reasons, but that's irrelevant to his individual quality and impact.

Matthews has actually been more productive. You may think that PP time makes somebody better, but it doesn't, and everybody involved in contract negotiations knows that.

I've discussed playoff production plenty. Because of how highly valued it is by fans, many cannot accept how little it matters for contracts compared to the much bigger and more representative sample of the regular season, or how much context needs to be considered to try and compare across two different team's unique playoff situations.

Nope the only clown who thought like this was Dubas and ge is not here any more.

Mcdavid, Drasaitl wont be signing 4-5 year 15M deals despite being again significantly better than 34, Mackinnon never signed it despite me showing you he was better while you continue to pretend he is not

Matthews will need a huge bounce back year otherwise we will regret his contract in year 1.