Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Brodie has good size it’s his foot speed that was his problem.

Yes, you need to make investments early in a series in hopes it pays off later.

Who is our Hockey Strategy Wealth Advisor that never seems to think investing in those type of things seems to work out? It just kills me that we try and play a gentlemen's game and the other team is playing to win. Until that gets fixed...we ain't winning shit.

 

[hamzarocks]

Daily Reminder!!!

Treliving stand your ground!

If trevliving lets Nylander walk hes a f***ing clown just as bad as Dubas was

You get whatever assets you can for Nylander and Matthews if both win't sign at a deal that gives you a chance to build a winner

Nylander should have been gone by the draft imo if Treliving knew Nylander won't come down from his crazy ask.

This team can't sustain getting nil assets for 88 and 34 and letting them walk

 

[hamzarocks]

It doesn't appear like that at all. Nylander is using his league-wide comparables, and understands the significant gap that exists between he and Marner.
All players start with high asks. That's how negotiations work.

They deserve pretty similar. Comparable production at 5v5. Pettersson added in some PK impacts, but Nylander has also been better on the PP, and is a UFA instead of an RFA.

You walk away from UFAs seeking absurd money

Thought we would have learned that by now with the John Tavares signing being a huge failure. 11M for a 80 pt player in a league where scoring is constantly going up, along with 58 pt player come playoffs...

Nylander at 27 is a terrible deal at 10-11M waiting to happen. Any team that gives hin that will struggle barr8ng them having elite ELCs/locked in for cheap core talent.

Leafs needed to deal Nylander and get whatever max value he fetches on the market. The longer we hold him the increased chances he either walks for nothing and we lose out on a 1st + B+ prospect (min return for unextended nylander see fiala deal) or Treliving caves and gvies 10M and that gets us one step further to shuttting down any second contention window (after the frist was horrendously wasted by Dubas and the core 4)

 

[nuck]

We're hoping the Leafs didn't sign the experienced Calgary GM, who gave 10.5*8 to Huberdeau aren't we?

Would you think he had any leverage at that point? The Kadri and Huberdeau deals were unfortunately based on monster unrepeatable years like Gaudreau had. The alternative is your 111 point team comes back with no top line. I think Tre gets fired if he doesn't try to bring JH back and his successor signs him anyway. 115pts and 27 more than your center and going to a small market high tax rate club so you aren't giving any discounts.

20-20 hindsight is concede last season and flip the guy for assets to begin a retool. I don't think his board gave him that option.

 

[ULF_55]

But you made the rebuttal point earlier to this very thing .. Different teams different decisions and different landscape.

In Calgary they can't get players to stay no matter what they pay them as in Gaudreau and Tkachuk and a whole new batch this summer.

So if you lose Johnny hockey for free, when you believed he was going to re-sign and you offer him more years and more $$ to stay and it doesn't matter and then when painted into a corner with Tkachuk, you have to make sure the return in that trade is a long time asset to the Flames even if you feel you're overpaying to stay. What is the difference paying Gaudreau $10,5 mil or Huberdeau at that point.

After all lets not forget Huberdeau was coming off a season where only McDavid scored more points and he finished 2nd in NHL scoring, and the player he lost 3rd.

Leafs have been paying 3 players Matthews, Marner and Tavares more than Huberdeau makes and they're been doing it for years and none of them are putting up 115 points seasons.

So Calgary's history helps explain that over-payment, but nothing helps explain the Leafs all these years other than focusing on the GM that handed them out.

I bet Treliving would love to be a position now where handing Matthews and Marner the Huberdeau deal of 8 X $10.5 mil was a option on the table, but we already know neither the term nor the $$ is a valid option. Instead he has to stare down Nylander looking for the Huberdeau deal now, with 28 less points in comparison as career best.

Treliving can only be judged going forward on the bad hand he was dealt and work from there. IMO

Huberdeau was like Kadri both coming off outlier years.

Shades of David Clarkson ... signed by Dave Nonis.

 

[Menzinger]

Would you think he had any leverage at that point? The Kadri and Huberdeau deals were unfortunately based on monster unrepeatable years like Gaudreau had. The alternative is your 111 point team comes back with no top line. I think Tre gets fired if he doesn't try to bring JH back and his successor signs him anyway. 115pts and 27 more than your center and going to a small market high tax rate club so you aren't giving any discounts.

20-20 hindsight is concede last season and flip the guy for assets to begin a retool. I don't think his board gave him that option.

A bad decision is still a bad decision, even contextualized. He could have turned around and flipped Huberdeau for other assets for example. He choose though to extend him to that money. That's on Treliving.

 

[Mess]

Dubas created this wacko world of super overpayments and now its Tre's job to bring it back inline with the rest of the league. I hope he's up to it. I'm doubtful, but there is at least some hope with Dubas gone.

Nylander negotiated himself a fantastic 2nd contract that only looked bad when his teammates negotiated theirs.

Hey, you don't win a Player Agents only Poll as the unanimous runaway leader as the easiest GM to take advantage of (sold as best to deal with ) in order to get the most money for their clients, without earning it on merit of the over-payments you handed out.

I'm with you, and so glad the problem is gone, but fixing this is going to be more difficult and easier said than done, because an inherited problem is still a problem even if you change out the negotiator.

Treliving looks like he is trying to right the wrongs of the previous regime, and his unwillingness to blink and play hardball with Samsonov should send a clear message to Nylander that things are changing and there is a new Sheriff in town.

Without a GM change I would have no doubt believing Nylander would already be signed and rocking his new 6 year $10.5 mil AAV deal, and Sammy grinning ear to ear that he just got the Tristan Jarry contract of 5 years at $5.375 mil deal & there would be some in Leafland singing the GM's praises and twisting themselves into pretzels defending them. IMO .. But that of course is just my own opinion based on the actions of the former GM both past and present to form them. Thankfully there is no way of proving them since the problem has been removed before we faced that possibility.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You left out, part of those increases are the 5% escalator, how much was due to escalator vs revenue.

Some of it, but revenues have still consistently increased, the escalator had also been consistently used until pretty recently, and none of this changes that the cap has consistently risen and that fact is inherently built into contracts and cannot be altered by one individual, especially as the cap is projected to skyrocket.

You walk away from UFAs seeking absurd money

But none of our core players are seeking absurd money.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Some of it, but revenues have still consistently increased, the escalator had also been consistently used until pretty recently, and none of this changes that the cap has consistently risen and that fact is inherently built into contracts and cannot be altered by one individual, especially as the cap is projected to skyrocket.

But none of our core players are seeking absurd money.

The 5% escalator just ended up being an additional 5% escrow each year, one of the reasons it’s now gone.

 

[hamzarocks]

Some of it, but revenues have still consistently increased, the escalator had also been consistently used until pretty recently, and none of this changes that the cap has consistently risen and that fact is inherently built into contracts and cannot be altered by one individual, especially as the cap is projected to skyrocket.

But none of our core players are seeking absurd money.

Tavares seeked it and got it

Nylander at 10-11M is absurd money you walk away from

Don't know what Marner or Matthews are seeking but if either want 14M+ then they both are overpaid as neither are top 5 players in the game (closer to 15th last year)

 

[geo25]

Actually, that's what they want but they don't have to.

It isn't really about hockey, it is about entertainment content.

I'd be fine if half the teams in the USofA ceased to exist.

What are all the professional hockey players going to do, switch to basketball?
There'd be lots of layoffs and lower paid players, but the best would still have jobs.

Agreed, we are now in the entertainment rather than Sports industry. That allows Bettman & his gang to rig games, lotteries etc etc....all in an attempt to grow the game. The game is as rigged as soccer (I own 2 books on Soccer actually titled "Rigged" ) and all the other major sports. Its a real turn off...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tavares seeked it and got it
Nylander at 10-11M is absurd money you walk away from
Don't know what Marner or Matthews are seeking but if either want 14M+ then they both are overpaid as neither are top 5 players in the game (closer to 15th last year)

Tavares did not get absurd money. Absurd money is what San Jose offered him. He chose the Leafs instead.
Nylander isn't getting 11m, and the range that's actually been rumoured in the 9s is not absurd money.
The numbers in the 13s being rumoured for Matthews (who is very easily a top 5 player in the game) is not absurd money, and while we don't know what Marner will ask for, there's no reason to believe he will get absurd money either. Some people just need to take a look at what the history of UFA contracts actually looks like, and adjust for the current cap.

 

[hamzarocks]

Tavares did not get absurd money. Absurd money is what San Jose offered him. He chose the Leafs instead.
Nylander isn't getting 11m, and the range that's actually been rumoured in the 9s is not absurd money.
The numbers in the 13s being rumoured for Matthews (who is very easily a top 5 player in the game) is not absurd money, and while we don't know what Marner will ask for, there's no reason to believe he will get absurd money either. Some people just need to take a look at what the history of UFA contracts actually looks like, and adjust for the current cap.

Tavares at 11M was absurd money. Dude was a top 20 player getting the 2nd highest AAV at the time. He has just continued to fall down being a borderline top 40-50 guy now


Matthews wasnt a top 5 player in tbe game last year but was 2 before that. We will see this season

He better get 13M by 8 not 4 or 5 b.s when a better player in Mack signed for 12.6M by 8

If Nylander would do 9 or even 9.25M he probably would have been signed by now. He wants 10M+ and is looking to drag this out

Marner will likely be overpaid heavily. He will again be within 500K of Matthews while all his comps make a lot less Rantanen will make less than Mack, on this deal while Marner likely makes more than that with how this team overpays its players)

 

[Mess]

Huberdeau was like Kadri both coming off outlier years.

Shades of David Clarkson ... signed by Dave Nonis.

Players in contract years that put up career best season are in the drivers seat come contract talks. Hard to argue that !!

The outlier might be they switched teams as they didn't change as players, only their linemates and their coach, the system etc are the non constants here.

Auston Matthews has 1 outlier season, similar to Huberdeau.

How could anyone validate his current contract at $11.634 mil, let alone be lining up to hand him $13.5 mil on a short term deal?

With 1 outlier season Treliving should be so lucky to be in a position to offer Matthews the same deal he gave Huberdeau of 8 X $10.5 mil as Leaf Nation would be ecstatic at that result.

What puts Auston Matthews in a position with 1 outlier season to ask to become the highest paid player in the game and sign the richest Salary cap contract ever handed out?

Nylander put up 40 goals and 87 points last season in his contract extension season for $7 mil nearly the same points as AM 85 points and JT 82 points and now he wants the Huberdeau deal.

Even using the BAD Huberdeau contract as a reference point can't help explain the Leafs current situation even if now the GM is the constant in this case.

 

[nuck]

A bad decision is still a bad decision, even contextualized. He could have turned around and flipped Huberdeau for other assets for example. He choose though to extend him to that money. That's on Treliving

The best solution would have been to move salary out years ago and try to accommodate Tkachuk's willingness to extend long term rather than bridge in 2019. Going into the walk years with MT and Johnny was the mistake and really with the 19 and 20 seasons Gaudreau had I am not sure how much of a raise on $6.8 is reasonable. Then Gaudreau goes into his show me season and shows too much.

So Tre takes the best deal he can and adds the available players likely to give the club a shot at another 50 wins. Retooling only makes sense if the club collapses which I don't thing was at all predictable. Would any clubs ownership say its okay to take a gap year after their best season in 30 years? After your star winger leaves to free agency and you are able to add one who looks almost interchangeable will they let you dump him and go back into build mode? Remember this is a Board that would not let him replace the coach after the failed season. Treliving may not be a great GM but the Huberdeau and Kadri deals were probably not done without Board strings attached.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tavares at 11M was absurd money.

No it wasn't. Not based on the history of UFA contracts. It was pretty average.

He better get 13M by 8 not 4 or 5 b.s when a better player in Mack signed for 12.6M by 8

Matthews is more valuable than Mackinnon was, and Matthews in the 13s is not absurd money at either 8 or 5 year terms.
Mackinnon also was not made more expensive by adding on less valuable years FYI.

If Nylander would do 9 or even 9.25M he probably would have been signed by now. He wants 10M+ and is looking to drag this out

Many players take longer than this to sign extensions. It doesn't mean anything. You don't know what Nylander wants.
If rumours are to be believed, it's looking like this is heading towards a contract somewhere in the 9s.

Marner will likely be overpaid heavily.

Very unlikely, and entirely speculative.

 

[PromisedLand]

If trevliving lets Nylander walk hes a f***ing clown just as bad as Dubas was

You get whatever assets you can for Nylander and Matthews if both win't sign at a deal that gives you a chance to build a winner

Nylander should have been gone by the draft imo if Treliving knew Nylander won't come down from his crazy ask.

This team can't sustain getting nil assets for 88 and 34 and letting them walk

Leafs have leverage

At max Nylander can only sign 7 year deal with other team if he walks as UFA.

To my knowledge, Leafs have offered Nylander something in 8 to 9 million dollar range i.e. for 8 years that range is:

64 million to (8 AAV) to 72 million (9 AAV)

if same package is offered by other teams at 7 million that AAV is about : 64 million (9.2 AAV) to 72 million (10.3 AAV)

I don't think any team in the league is going to offer Nylander anything more than 9,5 AAV on a 7 year deal for a total of 66.5 million package on a 7 year deal; for the 8 year deal that comes to about 8.3 AAV. Leafs can also front load the contract with 80% to 90% of it in signing bonuses which not many teams in the league can do.

Then the choices for Nylander (if long term deal) are:

1) Nylander walks and signs with another team for a package of 66.5 million (this means he never wanted to be a Leaf anyway)
2) Nylander signs with the Leafs fully front loaded contract with 80% to 90% in signing bonuses i.e. fully buyout proof contract in case he gets Matt Duchene treatment in future; he will get most of his money regardless

If Nylander is looking for short term deal to cash in on the expected salary cap increase (note: keyword is "expected")
then Leafs can offer him the same short term deal that other teams will offer again with front loaded and signing bonuses.

Leafs have leverage here and they shouldn't bendover.

The good thing with Nylander is also that he doesn't have NMC/NTC like Matthews does; so he can still be traded later if push comes to shove. I am not too worried about Nylander contract as long as it is not ridiculously over priced at 9+ AAV.

7 or 8 years down the road nobody knows what Nylander's output is going to look like or how how body will hold; valuing that is a fool's game IMO; so the package right now is the only thing that matters!

Treliving shouldn't bendover like dubas and should show a freakin' spine. Period!

 

[Confucius]

No it wasn't. Not based on the history of UFA contracts. It was pretty average.

Matthews is more valuable than Mackinnon was, and Matthews in the 13s is not absurd money at either 8 or 5 year terms.
Mackinnon also was not made more expensive by adding on less valuable years FYI.

Many players take longer than this to sign extensions. It doesn't mean anything. You don't know what Nylander wants.
If rumours are to be believed, it's looking like this is heading towards a contract somewhere in the 9s.

Very unlikely, and entirely speculative.

The bonus with JT was we got him for free, no draft pick used and not losing quality players going the other way that alone has to be worth a million a year maybe 2. After all how much would a team pay for a top 10 pick, never mind a first overall.

Mathews won’t be better over the next 8 than he has been so mgmt and fans should keep that in mind.

I can see Nylander going to next July before he signs this isn’t even preseason as far as signing his next deal.

 

[PromisedLand]

But "things that hurt nhl revenue" aren't once in a life time events. FAR from it.

The 2008 financial crisis saw the cap increase only 2.6 million from 2008-2011.

The lockout saw the cap increase only 4.6 million from 2011-2015.

It's very VERY stupid to assume "but but but the caps going up" will save you from horrible contracts.

ECON 101 but of course common sense are thrown out the door more often than not over here and mostly by folks that supported dubas blindly and defended the ridiculous contracts to begin with.

Int rates keep rising, EU is already struggling due to ridiculous energy prices; global demand may see a "re-set" and then there will be repercussions on every business including sports. NHL being the lowest followed sport among North American sports leagues (exclude MLS); will see the impact more than the other leagues IMO.

It is absolutely stupid to assume and crystal ball gaze what future cap might be. Economic forecasts are the hardest to model compared to any other forecasts; what some are doing on this board is parroting dubas philosophy which is grounded is guesswork and conjecture and not common sense.

 

[Mess]

Tavares seeked it and got it

Nylander at 10-11M is absurd money you walk away from

John Tavares after 14 NHL seasons has a career best 88 points career high and some people believe that is worth $11 mil AAV.

Nylander is coming off a career best 87 point season, which is one less than JT and why Willy is asking $10.5 mil as he sells off his free agent years.

Either the Tavares contract is really bad (which most people acknowledge) or in Toronto ONLY a 87-88 point season = $10.5 - $11 mil value as a player.

If Nylander is only worth a contract in the range $8.5 - $9 then so is Tavares overpaid by $2 mil. Can't have it both ways.

Toronto contacts are SOOO badly screwed up, they make little sense against NHL comparables, nor even against themsleves internally.

 

[PromisedLand]

Who is our Hockey Strategy Wealth Advisor that never seems to think investing in those type of things seems to work out? It just kills me that we try and play a gentlemen's game and the other team is playing to win. Until that gets fixed...we ain't winning shit.

quoted for truth

 

[PromisedLand]

Tavares at 11M was absurd money. Dude was a top 20 player getting the 2nd highest AAV at the time. He has just continued to fall down being a borderline top 40-50 guy now


Matthews wasnt a top 5 player in tbe game last year but was 2 before that. We will see this season

He better get 13M by 8 not 4 or 5 b.s when a better player in Mack signed for 12.6M by 8

If Nylander would do 9 or even 9.25M he probably would have been signed by now. He wants 10M+ and is looking to drag this out

Marner will likely be overpaid heavily. He will again be within 500K of Matthews while all his comps make a lot less Rantanen will make less than Mack, on this deal while Marner likely makes more than that with how this team overpays its players)

the contract that I hate the most on the Leafs is Marner's contract. I am gonna throw up when he negotiates his next deal. The ship has sailed on dealing marner which absolutely sucks. may be we can find a way to still trade him (hopefully)

 

[ToneDog]

John Tavares after 14 NHL seasons has a career best 88 points career high and some people believe that is worth $11 mil AAV.

View attachment 730692

Nylander is coming off a career best 87 point season, which is one less than JT and why Willy is asking $10.5 mil as he sells off his free agent years.

View attachment 730693

Either the Tavares contract is really bad (which most people acknowledge) or in Toronto ONLY a 87-88 point season = $10.5 - $11 mil value as a player.

If Nylander is only worth a contract in the range $8.5 - $9 then so is Tavares overpaid by $2 mil. Can't have it both ways.

Toronto contacts are SOOO badly screwed up, they make little sense against NHL comparables, nor even against themsleves internally.

Tavares, Isles #1C >> Nylander, Leafs #2RW. Yup Tavares was overpaid but you are comparing apples to oranges IMO.

 

[hamzarocks]

M

No it wasn't. Not based on the history of UFA contracts. It was pretty average.

Matthews is more valuable than Mackinnon was, and Matthews in the 13s is not absurd money at either 8 or 5 year terms.
Mackinnon also was not made more expensive by adding on less valuable years FYI.

Many players take longer than this to sign extensions. It doesn't mean anything. You don't know what Nylander wants.
If rumours are to be believed, it's looking like this is heading towards a contract somewhere in the 9s.

Very unlikely, and entirely speculative.

Matthews is not more valuable than Mackinnon

Mackinnon is coming off a season being a top 5 player in the league when he signed his extension

Matthews was no where near that last year

Your speculating they don't take overpaid deals again by trying to pretend they are better and more valuable players than they have shown.

5 years of failure to become 10 if things go the way you want

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews is not more valuable than Mackinnon

Through the 3 years prior to signing, Matthews has been better at 5v5 (3.04 > 2.85, 2.63 > 2.35) and comparable on the PP (6.34 < 6.92, 4.89 > 4.59), despite playing half his sample injured. He's better defensively, and he's younger. He'd be more valuable. In fact, unless I've missed somebody, he's the most valuable UFA to ever sign a currently legal contract in the cap era until McDavid's UFA deal comes along. Mackinnon would have been closer if he signed this offseason, since he just had a career year.