Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Hellcat]

Not sour grapes but reality. NHL needs USA to make big $$$

They need the NHL to go from a gate driven revenue model to a big USA network driven contract.

 

[ULF_55]

Here was my source from July 19th, 2023 from Vancouver writer and our Provincial Paper in BC.

Canucks: Art of the deal: A winding road to reach Elias Pettersson contract extension ​

In a perfect world, Pettersson would be satisfied with extension salary, term and a team commitment to improve. But the Canucks are far from perfect.
Ben Kuzma - Published Jul 19, 2023

How do you appease your best player? You pay him beyond market value with a franchise-defining, eight-year contract extension. And you also do everything possible to ensure the playoffs become more of a destination than a dream.

These are signposts on the long and winding road to making electrifying Canucks centre Elias Pettersson content with salary, term and team direction. However, it won’t be easy. The Swedish sensation likes Vancouver, but he also likes to win, and that’s why his deal may not get done as quickly as most hope, if at all.

“It’s probably going somewhere between $9.5 million and $10.25 million, and $10 million (annual salary cap) is not unreasonable,” Gear told Postmedia on Wednesday. “Probably between (Matthew) Tkachuk and (David) Pastrnak. Former Canucks assistant general manager Chris Gear knows Pettersson, the player and the person.

Do the Canucks pay a premium just to get this done, so Petey doesn’t go the Tkachuk (trade demand) and Johnny Gaudreau (free agency) route?

“A premium is going closer to the player’s number than yours. Your number still needs to be reasonable, but give him more of the benefit of the doubt because you’re a little fearful if you don’t come to terms, he could hold it over your head and force you to move him, or whatever.”

Canucks: Art of the deal: A winding road to reach Elias Pettersson contract extension

In a perfect world, Pettersson would be satisfied with extension salary, term and a team commitment to improve.

theprovince.com

From what Bruce was saying, he's a more rounded player than Pastnak, Matthews, Tkachuk but puts up the same points. PP, PK, Selke votes and a year younger.

But he is just RFA(arb), not UFA.

His agent will probably pull the Tkachuk card, and say he's not extending long term.

Look at the marner contract and that's where Pettersson likely starts up.

Fortunately for the Canucks, they can afford it without destroying their team.

His agent would be an idiot to accept anything less than Double Digit$.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

A once in a lifetime event won't happen again

But "things that hurt nhl revenue" aren't once in a life time events. FAR from it.

The 2008 financial crisis saw the cap increase only 2.6 million from 2008-2011.

The lockout saw the cap increase only 4.6 million from 2011-2015.

It's very VERY stupid to assume "but but but the caps going up" will save you from horrible contracts.

 

[thewave]

But "things that hurt nhl revenue" aren't once in a life time events. FAR from it.

The 2008 financial crisis saw the cap increase only 2.6 million from 2008-2011.

The lockout saw the cap increase only 4.6 million from 2011-2015.

It's very VERY stupid to assume "but but but the caps going up" will save you from horrible contracts.

Crisis 2.0 is coming soon IMHO

The league as a sport jumped the shark. Now very blatant sports entertainment with fixing and hot mic proof.

Nylander and company are going for NBA player philosophy. Get paid and get paid they will.

Those are my thoughts. That and the NHL is essentially about to see a decline due to much of the above.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Pettersen in only 24 and already > 100 point player and looking from $9.5 -$10.25.

Now compare that to our Leafs where Nylander who will be turning 27 when this contract ends, looking for $10.5 coming off a career best 40 goal 87 point season.

Marner also who has not hit 100 points yet (close buy no cigar) has already been making $10,9 mil for the past 4 seasons.

But leaf players view their comparables as players with significantly better numbers. Then the propagandists come in and try to convince everybody that raw numbers don't mean anything and then use stat mined insanity to rationalize the overpayments.

In the previous round of negotiations, Nylander ( a proven 20 goal 60 point player) used a proven 34 goal/70 point player as his direct comparable. If we add those percentages to last year, that means that Nylander is using comparables as players who scored 60 goals/100 points last year.

The same will happen here. That's (again) who Nylander will use as comparables. Players with that much better stats. So when Nylander signs for 10-11 million, the propagandists will come in once again and use things like "zone entries" and "even strenth p/60" to rationalize it. Tis a vicious cycle. But if Nylander walks or is traded, and THEN signs for 10.5, the propagandists would say it's an overpayment and it's a good thing the leafs didn't sign that.

 

[IPS]

Crisis 2.0 is coming soon IMHO

The league as a sport jumped the shark. Now very blatant sports entertainment with fixing and hot mic proof.

Nylander and company are going for NBA player philosophy. Get paid and get paid they will.

Those are my thoughts. That and the NHL is essentially about to see a decline due to much of the above.

I think that decline might already be happening.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The 2008 financial crisis saw the cap increase only 2.6 million from 2008-2011.

That's not even true. The cap rose 2.6m just in one offseason between 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

The lockout saw the cap increase only 4.6 million from 2011-2015.

Not because of bad revenues. Because the formula for the cap was changed. Pretty important context to leave out.

But leaf players view their comparables as players with significantly better numbers.

No they don't. They view their comparables as players with comparable numbers. Some people just still haven't accepted that contracts aren't based on one singular peak season.

 

[ULF_55]

They need the NHL to go from a gate driven revenue model to a big USA network driven contract.

Actually, that's what they want but they don't have to.

It isn't really about hockey, it is about entertainment content.

I'd be fine if half the teams in the USofA ceased to exist.

What are all the professional hockey players going to do, switch to basketball?
There'd be lots of layoffs and lower paid players, but the best would still have jobs.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That's not even true. The cap rose 2.6m just between 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

And it stayed the same from 2008/09 to 2009/10. So what I wrote is the truth.

Not because of bad revenues. Because the formula for the cap was changed. Pretty important point to leave out.

And the cba is up in what, two years? Three? So, sure, I should change "Things that prevent NHL revenue" to "things that prevent the cap going up". Point still stands.

Things that prevent the cap going up are NOT uncommon. Let's stop operating under this false narrative.

 

[ULF_55]

And it stayed the same from 2008/09 to 2009/10. So what I wrote is the truth.

And the cba is up in what, two years? Three? So, sure, I should change "Things that prevent NHL revenue" to "things that prevent the cap going up". Point still stands.

Things that prevent the cap going up are NOT uncommon. Let's stop operating under this false narrative.

One source of revenue that hasn't been tapped is Luxury Tax on teams that exceed the Cap.

Let the Rangers, Bruins, Hawks, Golden Knights, Leafs exceed the cap with a luxury tax that gets distributed to the welfare clubs without it increasing the Cap from HRR.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And it stayed the same from 2008/09 to 2009/10.

No it didn't. It rose 0.1m. Also, the way you wrote it was odd, giving the impression of a longer time period than it actually was. We had the biggest global financial crisis in almost a century, and the cap still rose 2.7m over 2 years. That's not helping your claim.

And the cba is up in what, two years? Three? So, sure, I should change "Things that prevent NHL revenue" to "things that prevent the cap going up".

There is no desire on either side to change the percentage.

Things that prevent the cap going up are NOT uncommon.

Things that prevent the cap from going up are very uncommon. The only things that have ever caused the cap to not rise are a changing of the formula and a once-in-a-century global pandemic causing a billion+ dollar player debt that had to be repaid by artificially stagnating the cap.

 

[Mess]

From what Bruce was saying, he's a more rounded player than Pastnak, Matthews, Tkachuk but puts up the same points. PP, PK, Selke votes and a year younger.

But he is just RFA(arb), not UFA.

His agent will probably pull the Tkachuk card, and say he's not extending long term.

Look at the marner contract and that's where Pettersson likely starts up.

Fortunately for the Canucks, they can afford it without destroying their team.

His agent would be an idiot to accept anything less than Double Digit$.

The overpayment of the Marner contract will no doubt be used by other agents to benefit their clients around the NHL, with players younger and more productive certainly making strong cases why they also deserve that amount.

For a player like Nylander however the Tkachuk contract should be the absolute ceiling of his ask at $9.5 mil .. MK does so much more other than goals and points that Willy can't match nor duplicate.

Sebastian Aho and the Carolina Hurricanes are closing in on a long-term contract, general manager Don Waddell said Thursday. That will be another solid comparable to use in talks with Nylander.

However it appears Willy is also using the Marner contract and the $4 mil difference in internal salary scale, to fuel his $10.5 mil ask, and their actual production against Treliving now.

There is no way Pettersson and Nylander should have similar contracts $$$ amounts.

 

[ULF_55]

The overpayment of the Marner contract will no doubt be used by other agents to benefit their clients around the NHL.

For a player like Nylander however the Tkachuk contract should be the absolute ceiling of his ask at $9.5 mil .. MK does so much more other than goals and points that Willy can't match nor duplicate.

Sebastian Aho and the Carolina Hurricanes are closing in on a long-term contract, general manager Don Waddell said Thursday. That will be another solid comparable to use in talks with Nylander.

However it appears Willy is also using the Marner contract and the $4 mil diference in salary, and their actual production against Treliving now.

There is no way Pettersson and Nylander should have similar contracts $$$ amounts.

Obviously, your comparables are the closest to the other players on your own team. Then you go league wide. You play for your team you don't play for other teams. You contribute for your team you don't contribute to other teams. If you team has an artificial internal "you don't make more than Crosby" then that's team not league.

I'll agree with one caveat, Pettersson was given the opportunities to be the best player on the Canucks, and Bruce even states he was the go to guy there.

Keefe gave the keys to the team to the Double Digit$ even going to the extreme of punishing Nylander publicly on and off the ice, and apologizing to marner and Matthews publicly on and off the ice when he tried to coach them.

I think JT Miller for Nylander just makes so much sense.

Great fit?

 

[socko]

The overpayment of the Marner contract will no doubt be used by other agents to benefit their clients around the NHL, with players younger and more productive certainly making strong cases why they also deserve that amount.

For a player like Nylander however the Tkachuk contract should be the absolute ceiling of his ask at $9.5 mil .. MK does so much more other than goals and points that Willy can't match nor duplicate.

Sebastian Aho and the Carolina Hurricanes are closing in on a long-term contract, general manager Don Waddell said Thursday. That will be another solid comparable to use in talks with Nylander.

However it appears Willy is also using the Marner contract and the $4 mil difference in internal salary scale, to fuel his $10.5 mil ask, and their actual production against Treliving now.

There is no way Pettersson and Nylander should have similar contracts $$$ amounts.

Dubas created this wacko world of super overpayments and now its Tre's job to bring it back inline with the rest of the league. I hope he's up to it. I'm doubtful, but there is at least some hope with Dubas gone.

Nylander negotiated himself a fantastic 2nd contract that only looked bad when his teammates negotiated theirs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

However it appears Willy is also using the Marner contract and the $4 mil difference in internal salary scale, to fuel his $10.5 mil ask

It doesn't appear like that at all. Nylander is using his league-wide comparables, and understands the significant gap that exists between he and Marner.
All players start with high asks. That's how negotiations work.

There is no way Pettersson and Nylander should have similar contracts $$$ amounts.

They deserve pretty similar. Comparable production at 5v5. Pettersson added in some PK impacts, but Nylander has also been better on the PP, and is a UFA instead of an RFA.

 

[PromisedLand]

Daily Reminder:

1) No more than 8.8 AAV for 8 years for Nylander
2) if Willy is not willing to sign then trade him or walk him to UFA and let his agent get the 84 million package (based on rumoured 10.5 x 8 yr contract) from another team on a 7 year deal which works out to 12 AAV LOL

Lets go Brad Treliving. you the man. Don't bendover like dubas. Stay STRONG!

Daily Reminder!

Don't budge from your position Tre. No more dubas era bs. TEAM First and ALWAYS!

 

[Mess]

But leaf players view their comparables as players with significantly better numbers. Then the propagandists come in and try to convince everybody that raw numbers don't mean anything and then use stat mined insanity to rationalize the overpayments.

In the previous round of negotiations, Nylander ( a proven 20 goal 60 point player) used a proven 34 goal/70 point player as his direct comparable. If we add those percentages to last year, that means that Nylander is using comparables as players who scored 60 goals/100 points last year.

The same will happen here. That's (again) who Nylander will use as comparables. Players with that much better stats. So when Nylander signs for 10-11 million, the propagandists will come in once again and use things like "zone entries" and "even strenth p/60" to rationalize it. Tis a vicious cycle. But if Nylander walks or is traded, and THEN signs for 10.5, the propagandists would say it's an overpayment and it's a good thing the leafs didn't sign that.

I agree with what you're saying but the very last line.

I think those "propagandists" in your theory would criticize Treliving for holding the line, and if another team was willing to pay Willy his $10.5 Mil, so should the Leafs as that would validate Nylander's worth, and then hold the return in trade against the Leafs even though it was OUR new GM that did the financial responsible thing here and not cave to unreasonable player demands, when some believe he should just cave to sign WIlly.

Remember when Dubas gave Tavares his Cap busting $11 mil contact (highest in Salary Cap history), it was sold as "taking a discount" and a good deal, because according to rumours one other reckless GM in SJ was willing to pay him even more still. Finding another desperate fool even greater than our own GM doesn't prove "player discount and fair contract" it validates the saying "There's a sucker born every minute".

Tavares 37 goals and 84 points in 82 games in 2017-18 wasn't worth $11 mil (4 years ago) and it isn't worth that even today either when compared to contracts signed recently. If it were then Nylander would claim his 40 goals and 87 points last year > JT when he signed, so where is my $11 mil now also? You were willing to pay a mercenary to come in at that rate, but you won't pay your own players equal pay for equal production..

You know the Matthews and Marner internal scale argument that fooled a greenhorn GM Dubas and got them paid as RFAs for UFA overprices, and some to this very day still think those contracts are at market value back then. Where at least today Nylander would be using UFA paid salary to his benefit on his next UFA contract. But still "2 wrongs don't make a right".

Moral of the story .. Don't listen to the "propagandists" and cross your fingers that our NEW experienced GM holds the line as best he can trying to not make the overspending mistakes of the past.

 

[Golden_Jet]

That's not even true. The cap rose 2.6m just in one offseason between 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Not because of bad revenues. Because the formula for the cap was changed. Pretty important context to leave out.

No they don't. They view their comparables as players with comparable numbers. Some people just still haven't accepted that contracts aren't based on one singular peak season.

You left out, part of those increases are the 5% escalator, how much was due to escalator vs revenue.

 

[ULF_55]

Daily Reminder!

Don't budge from your position Tre. No more dubas era bs. TEAM First and ALWAYS!

I'm sure he'll treat each player equally ... so players that earned their contracts will get increases and players who were overpaid won't.

And the Tooth Fairy, Easter Rabbit and that other guy are real.

 

[ULF_55]

Moral of the story .. Don't listen to the "propagandists" and cross your fingers that our NEW experienced GM holds the line as best he can trying to not make the overspending mistakes of the past.

We're hoping the Leafs didn't sign the experienced Calgary GM, who gave 10.5*8 to Huberdeau aren't we?

 

[socko]

If the Leafs core is going to demand the highest bidder salary in a UFA market, than I see no reason to be loyal to them. Find a player that wants to play in Toronto for slightly less. Or at least find someone that shows up in the playoffs.

 

[Mess]

Dubas created this wacko world of super overpayments and now its Tre's job to bring it back inline with the rest of the league. I hope he's up to it. I'm doubtful, but there is at least some hope with Dubas gone.

Nylander negotiated himself a fantastic 2nd contract that only looked bad when his teammates negotiated theirs.

Hey, you don't win a Player Agents only Poll as the unanimous runaway leader as the easiest GM to take advantage of (sold as best to deal with ) in order to get the most money for their clients, without earning it on merit of the over-payments you handed out.

I'm with you, and so glad the problem is gone, but fixing this is going to be more difficult and easier said than done, because an inherited problem is still a problem even if you change out the negotiator.

Treliving looks like he is trying to right the wrongs of the previous regime, and his unwillingness to blink and play hardball with Samsonov should send a clear message to Nylander that things are changing and there is a new Sheriff in town.

Without a GM change I would have not doubt believing Nylander would already be signed and rocking his new 6 year $10.5 mil AAV deal, and Sammy grinning ear to ear that he just got the Tristan Jarry contract of 5 years at $5.375 mil deal & there would be some in Leafland singing the GM's praises and twisting themselves into pretzels defending them. IMO .. But that of course is just my own opinion based on that actions of the former GM both past and present to form them. Thankfully there is no way of proving them since the problem has been removed before we faced that possibilty.

 

[nuck]

But leaf players view their comparables as players with significantly better numbers. Then the propagandists come in and try to convince everybody that raw numbers don't mean anything and then use stat mined insanity to rationalize the overpayments.

In the previous round of negotiations, Nylander ( a proven 20 goal 60 point player) used a proven 34 goal/70 point player as his direct comparable. If we add those percentages to last year, that means that Nylander is using comparables as players who scored 60 goals/100 points last year.

The same will happen here. That's (again) who Nylander will use as comparables. Players with that much better stats. So when Nylander signs for 10-11 million, the propagandists will come in once again and use things like "zone entries" and "even strenth p/60" to rationalize it. Tis a vicious cycle. But if Nylander walks or is traded, and THEN signs for 10.5, the propagandists would say it's an overpayment and it's a good thing the leafs didn't sign that.

Unless he is signing in Pittsburgh I doubt he is getting $10M. On the other hand I think he needs to be the highest paid played on his team and since such a team likely has no massively paid stars they might be able to pay whatever his number is. Like Buffalo did with Eichel. The thing is, if he's somehow worth the $10M the Leafs can't afford him. They can't move Mitch and they won't move AM to keep Willie so rather than rationalize Willie's greatness or lack of, just move him out and we can talk about meaningful stuff like whoever they get back for him.

 

[Gallagbi]

Moral of the story .. Don't listen to the "propagandists" and cross your fingers that our NEW experienced GM holds the line as best he can trying to not make the overspending mistakes of the past.

Its interesting. Arguably the biggest mistakes in our RFA signings was not getting on it early enough, but now theres praise for allowing trade restrictions to kick in and limit options while players enter their year before UFA deals.

You also had Dubas notorious for holding firm on goalie deals letting 2 starters walk due to contract demands, one of which you spent the whole summer complaining about, but now we're praising an arbitration for our current starter.

Funny how that works

 

[Mess]

We're hoping the Leafs didn't sign the experienced Calgary GM, who gave 10.5*8 to Huberdeau aren't we?

But you made the rebuttal point earlier to this very thing .. Different teams different decisions and different landscape. In Calgary they can't get players to stay no matter what they pay them as in Gaudreau and Tkachuk and a whole new batch this summer.

So if you lose Johnny hockey for free, when you believed he was going to re-sign and you offer him more years and more $$ to stay and it doesn't matter and then when painted into a corner with Tkachuk, you have to make sure the return in that trade is a long time asset to the Flames even if you feel you're overpaying to stay. What is the difference paying Gaudreau $10,5 mil or Huberdeau at that point with both players having equal points in contract talks?

After all lets not forget Huberdeau was coming off a season where only McDavid scored more points and he finished 2nd in NHL scoring, and the player he lost 3rd.

Leafs have been paying 3 players Matthews, Marner and Tavares more than Huberdeau makes and they're been doing it for years and none of them are putting up 115 points seasons. How can that phenomena be explained or reasoned as logical? So Calgary's history helps explain that over-payment, but nothing helps explain the Leafs all these years other than focusing on the GM that handed them out.

I bet Treliving would love to be a position now where handing Matthews and Marner the current Huberdeau deal of 8 X $10.5 mil was a option on the table (and be mocked by the fanbase as bad deal ), but we already know neither the term nor the $$ is a valid option. Instead he has to stare down Nylander looking for the Huberdeau deal now, with 28 less points in comparison as career best.

Treliving can only be judged going forward on the bad hand he was dealt and work from there. IMO