Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[ULF_55]

I'd say most definitions/understandings of "line driver" refer to the guy who creates the most plays out of nothing/ dictates the offensive play for the unit. Which Id suggest both statically and even eye test say its Nylander on that second line more than anyone else

Yeah, not even debatable.

Defensive conscience of the line is not the line driver. Perhaps that's where some people are confused. Like saying a line agitator of the line is the line driver, anyone really think Bunting was the line driver for Matthews line?

Matthews line hard to say if it is marner or Matthews, both do well defensively and offensively. That's why that line produces, but I'd have to give the slight nod to marner (we won't talk about his difficulties in the post season). Both can skate well, so they can be more in sync.

Be nice to see another skater with Nylander, even with Tavares who can take care of the D-Zone coverage.

 

[ULF_55]

Last 4 years points

Sum of Points	Column Labels
Row Labels	20192020​	20202021​	20212022​	20222023​	Grand Total
Auston Matthews	80​	66​	106​	85​	337​
John Tavares	60​	50​	76​	80​	266​
Mitchell Marner	67​	67​	97​	99​	330​
Morgan Rielly	27​	35​	68​	41​	171​
William Nylander	59​	42​	80​	87​	268​
Grand Total	293​	260​	427​	392​	1372​

 

[notDatsyuk]

let's try an exercise, for just sheer curiousity. for nylander's third and UFA contract. let's compare him to some similar guys, who have recently signed their third contracts. let's go with:
Johnny Gaudreau
David Pastrnak
Filip Forsberg
Alex Debrincat
Timo Meier

Now let's see how each did during the lifespan of their 2nd contracts regarding primary point production and how cost efficient they were - let's look at Games Played over 2nd contract / primary points over 2nd contract / primary points per game on 2nd contract / Average Cap Hit per primary point for entire 2nd deal / Average cap hit % per primary point (different cap ceilings per year apply:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Primary Points Total[/TD]
[TD]Primary Pts / Game[/TD]
[TD]Avg Cap Hit / Prim Pt[/TD]
[TD]Avg Cap Hit % / Prim Pt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johnny Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]442[/TD]
[TD]230[/TD]
[TD]0.52[/TD]
[TD]$198,306[/TD]
[TD]0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Pastrnak[/TD]
[TD]420[/TD]
[TD]223[/TD]
[TD]0.53[/TD]
[TD]$187,553[/TD]
[TD]0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Forsberg[/TD]
[TD]384[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]0.43[/TD]
[TD]$255,815[/TD]
[TD]0.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Debrincat[/TD]
[TD]216[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]0.37[/TD]
[TD]$240,293[/TD]
[TD]0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timo Meier[/TD]
[TD]279[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$193,548[/TD]
[TD]0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander (1 yr left)[/TD]
[TD]336[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$206,729[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So - Willy will catch up in games however he is on the lower end of actual production, and is costing the highest percentage for his production. Now let's see what these teams paid these players based on said production - so we can plug in their new contracts to see how it affects their financial numbers. of course players are projected to play 82 games - so at their 2nd contract's Primary Pts per game numbers, they would be projected as following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Projected GP[/TD]
[TD]Projected Primary Pts[/TD]
[TD]Primary Pts / Season[/TD]
[TD]Cap Hit per Primary Pt[/TD]
[TD]Cap Hit % per primary point for first yr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johnny Gaudreau - 7 yrs / 9.75 per year[/TD]
[TD]574[/TD]
[TD]298[/TD]
[TD]42.5[/TD]
[TD]$229,411[/TD]
[TD]0.275%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Pastrnak - 8 yrs / 11.25 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]348[/TD]
[TD]43.5[/TD]
[TD]$258,621[/TD]
[TD]0.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Forsberg - 8 yrs / 8.5 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]282[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]$242,857[/TD]
[TD]0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Debrincat - 4 yrs / 7.875 per year[/TD]
[TD]328[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]$262,500[/TD]
[TD]0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timo Meier - 8 yrs / 8.8 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]267[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]$266,667[/TD]
[TD]0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Averages[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$252,011[/TD]
[TD]0.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So looking at Nylander, let's say we offered him an average of $252,011 per primary point on his new deal, what would we end up with:

8 years - 656 games with his current average of 0.41 primary points per game.
this gets him 267 primary points - same as Timo Meier. so 267 primary points based on his history @ $252,011 per point, we would look at: $67,286,937. over 8 years, annually it is $8,410,867.

Now do we really expect nylander to sign that? never - so where does the surplus value come in to start bumping him up into the 'above average' of his direct peers. now of course he has one year left - so negotiating his contract will be based on him having another good year, has to be from their point of view. so let's add that in - let's say he replicates last season to keep it easy:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander[/TD]
[TD]games played[/TD]
[TD]primary points total[/TD]
[TD]primary points / game[/TD]
[TD]cap hit per point[/TD]
[TD]cap hit % per point[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]to date[/TD]
[TD]336[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$206,729[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]final year projected[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]0.43[/TD]
[TD]$198,924[/TD]
[TD]0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]totals[/TD]
[TD]418[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$205,151[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

so that doesn't change it really at all. and some numbers if we were to pay Nylander the same as all these other guys:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Gaudreau $229,411[/TD]
[TD]$61,252,737 or $7.66 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Pastrnak $258,621[/TD]
[TD]$69,051,807 or $8.63 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Forsberg $242,857[/TD]
[TD]$64,842,819 or 8.11 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Debrincat $262,500[/TD]
[TD]$70,087,500 or $8.76 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Meier $266,667[/TD]
[TD]$71,200,089 or 8.90 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So where else do we add value for nylander? hair?

How many of your 'comparables' play mainly with second-liners?

 

[ULF_55]

Last 4 Even Strength Points

Sum of EVP	Season
Player	20192020​	20202021​	20212022​	20222023​	Grand Total
Auston Matthews	55​	53​	77​	57​	242​
John Tavares	39​	38​	50​	41​	168​
Mitchell Marner	42​	51​	68​	58​	219​
Morgan Rielly	20​	22​	42​	24​	108​
William Nylander	42​	31​	49​	59​	181​
Grand Total	198​	195​	286​	239​	918​

For perspective this year:

 

[Notsince67]

Marners biggest supporters love like no other... He was literally compared to Gretzky during the season.

That Gretz has gone too far with that comparison. It was him

 

[andora]

How many of your 'comparables' play mainly with second-liners?

How many of them get better matchups than the first line.. either way can you work quality of linemates into these numbers then?

Over the past 4 years

Meier - spent most of his time with hertl as his center.. then couture. Wingers barabanov balcers marleau labanc

Forsberg - duchene and granlund as centers..then arvidsson and tolvenen .. so obviously duchene and granlund had some winger time so throw johansen at center

Debrincat - strome and dach at center.. of course kane. In ottawa pinto only and then giroux and batherson

Gaudreau - lindholm and monahan.. then obviously tkachuk

Pastrnak - marchand and bergeron obviously.. but last year krejci and zacha.. hall and marchand

So.. ok

 

[andora]

How many of your 'comparables' play mainly with second-liners?

actually another thing i just realized.. the best producers who had the best linemates actually got paid the least and 3rd least per primary production

interesting

 

[Throw More Waffles]

let's try an exercise, for just sheer curiousity. for nylander's third and UFA contract. let's compare him to some similar guys, who have recently signed their third contracts. let's go with:
Johnny Gaudreau
David Pastrnak
Filip Forsberg
Alex Debrincat
Timo Meier

Now let's see how each did during the lifespan of their 2nd contracts regarding primary point production and how cost efficient they were - let's look at Games Played over 2nd contract / primary points over 2nd contract / primary points per game on 2nd contract / Average Cap Hit per primary point for entire 2nd deal / Average cap hit % per primary point (different cap ceilings per year apply:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Primary Points Total[/TD]
[TD]Primary Pts / Game[/TD]
[TD]Avg Cap Hit / Prim Pt[/TD]
[TD]Avg Cap Hit % / Prim Pt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johnny Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]442[/TD]
[TD]230[/TD]
[TD]0.52[/TD]
[TD]$198,306[/TD]
[TD]0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Pastrnak[/TD]
[TD]420[/TD]
[TD]223[/TD]
[TD]0.53[/TD]
[TD]$187,553[/TD]
[TD]0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Forsberg[/TD]
[TD]384[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]0.43[/TD]
[TD]$255,815[/TD]
[TD]0.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Debrincat[/TD]
[TD]216[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]0.37[/TD]
[TD]$240,293[/TD]
[TD]0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timo Meier[/TD]
[TD]279[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$193,548[/TD]
[TD]0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander (1 yr left)[/TD]
[TD]336[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$206,729[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So - Willy will catch up in games however he is on the lower end of actual production, and is costing the highest percentage for his production. Now let's see what these teams paid these players based on said production - so we can plug in their new contracts to see how it affects their financial numbers. of course players are projected to play 82 games - so at their 2nd contract's Primary Pts per game numbers, they would be projected as following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Projected GP[/TD]
[TD]Projected Primary Pts[/TD]
[TD]Primary Pts / Season[/TD]
[TD]Cap Hit per Primary Pt[/TD]
[TD]Cap Hit % per primary point for first yr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johnny Gaudreau - 7 yrs / 9.75 per year[/TD]
[TD]574[/TD]
[TD]298[/TD]
[TD]42.5[/TD]
[TD]$229,411[/TD]
[TD]0.275%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Pastrnak - 8 yrs / 11.25 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]348[/TD]
[TD]43.5[/TD]
[TD]$258,621[/TD]
[TD]0.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Forsberg - 8 yrs / 8.5 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]282[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]$242,857[/TD]
[TD]0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Debrincat - 4 yrs / 7.875 per year[/TD]
[TD]328[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]$262,500[/TD]
[TD]0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timo Meier - 8 yrs / 8.8 per year[/TD]
[TD]656[/TD]
[TD]267[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]$266,667[/TD]
[TD]0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Averages[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]$252,011[/TD]
[TD]0.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So looking at Nylander, let's say we offered him an average of $252,011 per primary point on his new deal, what would we end up with:

8 years - 656 games with his current average of 0.41 primary points per game.
this gets him 267 primary points - same as Timo Meier. so 267 primary points based on his history @ $252,011 per point, we would look at: $67,286,937. over 8 years, annually it is $8,410,867.

Now do we really expect nylander to sign that? never - so where does the surplus value come in to start bumping him up into the 'above average' of his direct peers. now of course he has one year left - so negotiating his contract will be based on him having another good year, has to be from their point of view. so let's add that in - let's say he replicates last season to keep it easy:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander[/TD]
[TD]games played[/TD]
[TD]primary points total[/TD]
[TD]primary points / game[/TD]
[TD]cap hit per point[/TD]
[TD]cap hit % per point[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]to date[/TD]
[TD]336[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$206,729[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]final year projected[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]0.43[/TD]
[TD]$198,924[/TD]
[TD]0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]totals[/TD]
[TD]418[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]0.41[/TD]
[TD]$205,151[/TD]
[TD]0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

so that doesn't change it really at all. and some numbers if we were to pay Nylander the same as all these other guys:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Gaudreau $229,411[/TD]
[TD]$61,252,737 or $7.66 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Pastrnak $258,621[/TD]
[TD]$69,051,807 or $8.63 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Forsberg $242,857[/TD]
[TD]$64,842,819 or 8.11 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Debrincat $262,500[/TD]
[TD]$70,087,500 or $8.76 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Same as Meier $266,667[/TD]
[TD]$71,200,089 or 8.90 per year[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So where else do we add value for nylander? hair?

You can do the same thing with Nylander and Marner's rfa contracts. Other than stat-mined Dekes spin, all metrics show that both Nylander and Marner were significantly overpaid in relation to direct comparables at time of signing.

Our guys didn't care about league-wide comparables then, and still don't now. They base it on internal comparables, and the Tavares contract royally f***ed that up. It's what's messed EVERYTHING up. Nylander has averaged more goals and points than Tavares in their last 2 (and maybe 3?) rfa years. Tavares gets 11 mil on a significantly lower cap than projected for 2024/25. Of course Nylander see's himself as well near that value.

And Tavares as a career average low 30's goal ppg player gets 13.84% of cap. Doing that with the projected 2024/25 cap, that percentage would be 12 mil aav for Matthews. And CLEARLY Matthews is a massive tier above Tavares. He's going to want around 16% of cap. So 14-15 million. The Tavares contract is what destroyed this franchise.

 

[andora]

You can do the same thing with Nylander and Marner's rfa contracts. Other than stat-mined Dekes spin, all metrics show that both Nylander and Marner were significantly overpaid in relation to direct comparables at time of signing.

Our guys didn't care about league-wide comparables then, and still don't now. They base it on internal comparables, and the Tavares contract royally f***ed that up. It's what's messed EVERYTHING up. Nylander has averaged more goals and points than Tavares in their last 2 (and maybe 3?) rfa years. Tavares gets 11 mil on a significantly lower cap than projected for 2024/25. Of course Nylander see's himself as well near that value.

And Tavares as a career average low 30's goal ppg player gets 13.84% of cap. Doing that with the projected 2024/25 cap, that percentage would be 12 mil aav for Matthews. And CLEARLY Matthews is a massive tier above Tavares. He's going to want around 16% of cap. So 14-15 million. The Tavares contract is what destroyed this franchise.

I'm weird on nylander's 2nd contract, didn't love it didn't hate it, wanted it longer

funny enough his 2nd contract was basically right in the middle in terms of paying for primary production, probably a 30 player sample size for 2nd contracts. he was paid more than meier, gaudreau, pastrnak, forsberg, and jason robertson recently got less. all five of those names out produced him except for meier. on the flip side, a few names that got paid more than him brady tkachuk, robert thomas and andrei svechnikov with thomas and svechnikov drastically producing less.

it's a fickle world

 

[nuck]

How many of your 'comparables' play mainly with second-liners?

According to Moneypuck the most frequently used line combination on the club last year was Bunting AM Willie. Bunting may not be a classic first line talent but somebody has to go into the corners. Pasta was 46 points ahead of the next highest Bruin. Johnny was 22 pts ahead of Laine. I know you are actually trying to bring Tavares in as some kind of offensive millstone around Nylander's neck but he wasn't there that much this year. Imagine Boone Jenner beside WN instead.

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

The Best Offensive and Defensive Lines in the NHL

moneypuck.com

 

[Clark4Ever]

That Gretz has gone too far with that comparison. It was him

In terms of peripheral on ice vision and playmaking ability, Marner is not that far off. In terms of goal scoring ability, Marner is not even in the same stratosphere.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I'm weird on nylander's 2nd contract, didn't love it didn't hate it, wanted it longer

funny enough his 2nd contract was basically right in the middle in terms of paying for primary production, probably a 30 player sample size for 2nd contracts. he was paid more than meier, gaudreau, pastrnak, forsberg, and jason robertson recently got less. all five of those names out produced him except for meier. on the flip side, a few names that got paid more than him brady tkachuk, robert thomas and andrei svechnikov with thomas and svechnikov drastically producing less.

it's a fickle world

I was talking about production at time of signing. Let's also add all the other player-friendly perks in Nylanders contract. Compared to those other players, Nylander was paid FAR more in signing bonuses, it was FAR more front-loaded, and his contract had one less CRAZY valuable ufa year than his direct comparables. None of that resulted in a lower aav.

It was an atrocity of a contract. The only reason it's applauded as "it ended up being worth it" is because most fans here don't understand rfa contracts. The cba is directly designed to make rfa contracts INSANELY team friendly as players have zero leverage whatsoever.

You don't asses the last couple years of a rfa contract by saying "is that good value or not." No. It's SUPPOSED to be good value for the team. AMAZING value for the team. OUTRAGEOUS value for the team. The cba is designed that way.

The way you decide if it was a good rfa contract or not is by looking at direct comparables at time of signing. Let's also remember that all of the seasons for those other players were FULL seasons. There were no (lol) "0.6" of seasons. Nylander was a SIGNIFICANT overpayment.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I was talking about production at time of signing. Let's also add all the other player-friendly perks in Nylanders contract. Compared to those other players, Nylander was paid FAR more in signing bonuses, it was FAR more front-loaded, and his contract had one less CRAZY valuable ufa year than his direct comparables. None of that resulted in a lower aav.

It was an atrocity of a contract. The only reason it's applauded as "it ended up being worth it" is because most fans here don't understand rfa contracts. The cba is directly designed to make rfa contracts INSANELY team friendly as players have zero leverage whatsoever.

You don't asses the last couple years of a rfa contract by saying "is that good value or not." No. It's SUPPOSED to be good value for the team. AMAZING value for the team. OUTRAGEOUS value for the team. The cba is designed that way.

The way you decide if it was a good rfa contract or not is by looking at direct comparables at time of signing. Let's also remember that all of the seasons for those other players were FULL seasons. There were no (lol) "0.6" of seasons. Nylander was a SIGNIFICANT overpayment.

I think the main reason it's applauded is that Nylander's contract looks like a steal when compared to that monstrosity that Marner's contract is.

But yeah I said it years ago - Dubas paid our RFA's as if they were UFA's, simple as that.

 

[ULF_55]

According to Moneypuck the most frequently used line combination on the club last year was Bunting AM Willie. Bunting may not be a classic first line talent but somebody has to go into the corners. Pasta was 46 points ahead of the next highest Bruin. Johnny was 22 pts ahead of Laine. I know you are actually trying to bring Tavares in as some kind of offensive millstone around Nylander's neck but he wasn't there that much this year. Imagine Boone Jenner beside WN instead.

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

The Best Offensive and Defensive Lines in the NHL

moneypuck.com

I somewhat agree with both sides of that ...

? - Tavares - Nylander

? is the missing piece.

 

[andora]

I was talking about production at time of signing. Let's also add all the other player-friendly perks in Nylanders contract. Compared to those other players, Nylander was paid FAR more in signing bonuses, it was FAR more front-loaded, and his contract had one less CRAZY valuable ufa year than his direct comparables. None of that resulted in a lower aav.

It was an atrocity of a contract. The only reason it's applauded as "it ended up being worth it" is because most fans here don't understand rfa contracts. The cba is directly designed to make rfa contracts INSANELY team friendly as players have zero leverage whatsoever.

You don't asses the last couple years of a rfa contract by saying "is that good value or not." No. It's SUPPOSED to be good value for the team. AMAZING value for the team. OUTRAGEOUS value for the team. The cba is designed that way.

The way you decide if it was a good rfa contract or not is by looking at direct comparables at time of signing. Let's also remember that all of the seasons for those other players were FULL seasons. There were no (lol) "0.6" of seasons. Nylander was a SIGNIFICANT overpayment.

no when i was talking about those other players and their production, that was all ELC production compared against each other i was quoting relative to when they signed - nothing after their 2nd contract was signed.

 

[ULF_55]

The way you decide if it was a good rfa contract or not is by looking at direct comparables at time of signing. Let's also remember that all of the seasons for those other players were FULL seasons. There were no (lol) "0.6" of seasons. Nylander was a SIGNIFICANT overpayment.

But if one wants to play with numbers ... marner got paid $15,300,000 his first year.
Matthews got $15,200,000 for playing 52 games in 2020-2021.
Nylander got $6,000,000 for playing 51 games in 2020-2021.

Take the total of the contract and divide it by years.
Everything else is just playing with numbers.

Nylander 6 years $45mm ... end of story.

 

[nuck]

You can do the same thing with Nylander and Marner's rfa contracts. Other than stat-mined Dekes spin, all metrics show that both Nylander and Marner were significantly overpaid in relation to direct comparables at time of signing.

Our guys didn't care about league-wide comparables then, and still don't now. They base it on internal comparables, and the Tavares contract royally f***ed that up. It's what's messed EVERYTHING up. Nylander has averaged more goals and points than Tavares in their last 2 (and maybe 3?) rfa years. Tavares gets 11 mil on a significantly lower cap than projected for 2024/25. Of course Nylander see's himself as well near that value.

And Tavares as a career average low 30's goal ppg player gets 13.84% of cap. Doing that with the projected 2024/25 cap, that percentage would be 12 mil aav for Matthews. And CLEARLY Matthews is a massive tier above Tavares. He's going to want around 16% of cap. So 14-15 million. The Tavares contract is what destroyed this franchise.

I don't think Willie was aiming at JT. He and his agent knew the difference between UFA money and whats doable. Willie was looking at Draisaitl's $8.5M just like Matthews was always going to be somewhere north of Eichel's $10M towards Edmonton. UFA vs RFA wasn't as blurry then as it seems to have become today. Dubas just got swept up by "we can and we will". Just as he was voted most desirable GM by the agents, the same poll showed Lou as the hardest negotiator and by quite a margin. Rookie GM got worked by a player with a grasping agent, a notorious dad, and Kyle's desire to be his pal, culminating in "the promise". This is NOT a pro Lou opinion, just saying those deals don't happen but for KD. If Willie doesn't hold out, Marner doesn't trend toward 100pts and offer sheets beside Tavares because he signs that summer for closer the the $8M he had apparently asked for. I don't know how AM gets done except I can't imagine a veteran GM gives him what he got. Willie started the chain reaction because the GM looked him in the eye and said I will never trade you vs here is the final offer or we will need to move in a different direction.

 

[koyvoo]

Most recent 4 years playoffs

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sum of EVP[/TD]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]

[TD]

20192020​

[/TD]

[TD]

20202021​

[/TD]

[TD]

20212022​

[/TD]

[TD]

20222023​

[/TD]

[TD]Grand Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grand Total[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

38​

[/TD]

[TD]

90​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Regular season to playoff production (career)

Marner: 1.09p/g vs 0.94p/g (-14%)
Matthews: 1.13p/g vs 0.88p/g (-22%)
Nylander: 0.83p/g vs 0.80p/g (-4%)

 

[therealkoho]

I'll be quite honest with you, and as gentle as possible, you don't know what you're talking about.

It was well known Ferris approached other teams in attempt to solicit an offer sheet, and in fact, two of them were offered that Marner didn't sign.

Here's one, of thousands, of links:

Report: Blue Jackets among teams that have talked to Marner's camp about offer sheet - TSN.ca

The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of several teams that have talked to Mitch Marner's agent about a possible offer sheet, according to The Athletic's Aaron Portzline.

www.tsn.ca

Here's a quote from Ferris:

“Could we have done things differently? Maybe? As (Dubas) said I think we both learn things as we go along, whenever there’s some misjudgments made or anything along those lines,”

There's even a thread on it.

Nowhere, not once in that article does it say anything about Ferris approaching the BJs, it does say that they talked but stopped short of saying they approached Columbus

NHL Player: hey Mr agent I am one of the best players in the world and can play anywhere I want because any team would love to have my services

NHL Agent: so where to, LA, NY, Colorado, Dallas, beautiful BC, or hey how bout them Chicago reds?

NHL Player: nah I like Columbus, I've dreamt about it since I was a kid.

Uh huh

 

[Notsince67]

In terms of peripheral on ice vision and playmaking ability, Marner is not that far off. In terms of goal scoring ability, Marner is not even in the same stratosphere.

Tbh, I don't think there is much to compare. WG was a phenom. I was merely pointing out that it was he that made the comparison.

 

[therealkoho]

That wasn't the discussion, but:

Nylander and Matthews work quite well, almost as well as Marner and Matthews. Neither works as well with Tavares, which is mainly due to JT.

I think the raw numbers will tell you different

In which case THAT would be one hell of a discount.

One can dream

I'm not sure how that equates to soliciting an offer sheet? Sounds like Columbus was one of the teams negotiating with Mitch's agent, which sounds like normal agent work in free agency. I'm not sure his agent was out there saying 'Hey, do you wanna come offer my guy an offer sheet?' Is there maybe a different article you were referring to?

If that were the case why even bother with the RFA status, that all be UFAs of a sort as soon as their ELCs are done.

I do believe that in the agents code of professional conduct. Initiating discussions with the hopes of generating an offer sheet is not just frowned upon but considered a breach of professional ethics, and would result in a fine and suspension of the agent.

 

[ULF_55]

Red Kelly was too old to convert to center from defense wasn't he?

I know I know Nylander is not a center ...

marner is too small for center.

Tavares to wing.

 

[Antropovsky]

That Gretz has gone too far with that comparison. It was him

You mean the interview where Wayne was asked if he could see similarities between he and Messier and Matthews and Marner? He answered the question in the only way it made sense, physically they are similar, in that there is small skill player and big powerful player.

Marners biggest supporters (including you), took this comment and ran trying to say Gretzky compared Marner to himself... It was gold. Then folks in the Marner Appreciation thread starting proclaiming "Marner as the smartest player in the game since Gretzky"!

 

[nuck]

I somewhat agree with both sides of that ...

? - Tavares - Nylander

? is the missing piece.

The Moneypuck stuff is interesting when cross referenced with the pp60. I think it suggests Bunting and to a lesser extent Jarnkrok are not as valuable as their scoring stats might indicate. They are not the LW I want on either of my top lines so there will hopefully be a positive correction with the new additions.

Looking at 21-22 Willie did spend a lot more time with JT. This year Willie outpointed him by 1.06 to 1.00. Last year while together it was .98 to .96. That could just be explained by AM being better beside Willie and Mitch being a bit better beside Tavares. And Willie's oz starts went up a little while Mitch's went down.

But JT's pp60 is virtually the same in both years and Mitch's is way down. Is that solely because Mitch isn't playing beside someone having an MVP type year or was JT actually putting the drag on him that Jamason is hinting he did to Nylander? So many variables. But Mitch's best season for primary assists was his breakout year with Tavares and his second best was this season where he was mostly with Tavares. It seems like the best value with him should be where he is creating the most primary assists and not necessarily when he is beside the best center.

Once you have the C-RW combos sorted out then you can look at the ? JT and MM were beside Hyman for almost all of the breakout year. Who is the winger most like Hyman, or maybe even who is least like Hyman so they don't waste everybody's time? Knies is Hyman 2.0 maybe? And Bert to Matthews because he only has to be more useful than Bunting to support another MVP. It gets less clear if Willie is moved but one supposes another winger might come back.

Edit - AM's best ever A1 per 60 was last season with Nylander as his main RW.

 

[The Apologist]

Thank you for the response.

He made the claim. The onus is on him to prove it. Not for me to disprove it.

At any rate, I could only find the Marner and Aho/Point offer sheets from 2019 and the corresponding Kotkaniemo retaliation offer sheet.

Point and Aho share the same agent, and the same team (Montreal) made offer sheets to them. That makes me suspect it's the agents pursuing the teams, not the teams pursuing the agents. But if we're be completely honest here, it's almost certainly a combination of them both.

Like two dogs circling around sniffing each other's butts.

Actually, you are the one claiming the agent was 'soliciting' offer sheets so the onus is on you to prove that. An article stating that teams were talking to the Marner camp does not prove that his agent was making the rounds asking teams to offer sheet Mitch.

Be honest with yourself here, so you believe there was a dearth of teams interested in Marner?