Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Antropovsky]

The Marner haters, hate like no other

Marners biggest supporters love like no other... He was literally compared to Gretzky during the season.

 

[Antropovsky]

So Nylander (not that I agree) has been the line driver and the 2nd line has been shit. Marner and Matthews are line drivers.

I can't see many ppl saying Nylander is a line driver.

Show me a playoff goal where Marner was the driver of the goal. I can point out many from last year's playoffs where Nylander was.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Show me a playoff goal where Marner was the driver of the goal. I can point out many from last year's playoffs where Nylander was.

Comparing Marners inability to show up doesn't make Nylander a line driver.

Marner choking is another issue on this flawed team.

 

[Menzinger]

Comparing Marners inability to show up doesn't make Nylander a line driver.

Marner choking is another issue on this flawed team.

I'd say most definitions/understandings of "line driver" refer to the guy who creates the most plays out of nothing/ dictates the offensive play for the unit. Which Id suggest both statically and even eye test say its Nylander on that second line more than anyone else

 

[ULF_55]

Another difference is that Aho is the guy who pulls the Canes' cart.

Would he play above or below Matthews on the Leafs?

 

[A1LeafNation]

I'd say most definitions/understandings of "line driver" refer to the guy who creates the most plays out of nothing/ dictates the offensive play for the unit. Which Id suggest both statically and even eye test say its Nylander on that second line more than anyone else

I don't see it, most ppl don't see it either. You are probably in the exception not the rule.

 

[Stephen]

I don't see it, most ppl don't see it either. You are probably in the exception not the rule.

Willie's definitely the line driver when paired with Tavares. Out of the two, he's the one who the puck transporter, the guy who covers distance with his skating, the line driver by definition. The problem with that line is more of a pacing issue where the fast guy has to go slow or the slow guy is playing catchup and not always in sync.

They also don't have that much natural chemistry and connect on a lot 5 on 5. In that sense they're more like roommates who happen to both live on the 2nd line, and not really a duo.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Willie's definitely the line driver when paired with Tavares. Out of the two, he's the one who the puck transporter, the guy who covers distance with his skating, the line driver by definition. The problem with that line is more of a pacing issue where the fast guy has to go slow or the slow guy is playing catchup and not always in sync.

They also don't have that much natural chemistry and connect on a lot 5 on 5. In that sense they're more like roommates who happen to both live on the 2nd line, and not really a duo.

Tavares needed to be carried by O'Reilly. Nylander is better than Tavares, but that's not saying much.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Approaching other teams to solicit an offer sheet?

Where in the wide world of sports did you ever hear that? And please provide a link.

I'll be quite honest with you and try to be as gentle as possible, but that is one big steaming pile of horse puckey my friend It never happened and why it never happened is because Mitchs agent would have had his card pulled., as in lost his livelihood.

I'll be quite honest with you, and as gentle as possible, you don't know what you're talking about.

It was well known Ferris approached other teams in attempt to solicit an offer sheet, and in fact, two of them were offered that Marner didn't sign.

Here's one, of thousands, of links:

Report: Blue Jackets among teams that have talked to Marner's camp about offer sheet - TSN.ca

The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of several teams that have talked to Mitch Marner's agent about a possible offer sheet, according to The Athletic's Aaron Portzline.

www.tsn.ca

Here's a quote from Ferris:

“Could we have done things differently? Maybe? As (Dubas) said I think we both learn things as we go along, whenever there’s some misjudgments made or anything along those lines,”

There's even a thread on it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

How many times have they tried 88 and 34?

How many times has it failed?

Do you know why it doesnt work as well as 16 and 34?

88 and 91 doesn't work that well either and yet 16 and 91 work quite well?

Why do you think 97, 91 and 16 were pulled apart so quickly and never really put back together when they accumulated 15 points together.

I'd say jealousy but we all know it's always team first, because it just has to be, am I right?

That wasn't the discussion, but:

Nylander and Matthews work quite well, almost as well as Marner and Matthews. Neither works as well with Tavares, which is mainly due to JT.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yeah but McJeebuzz wants to be a Leaf and will sign for 7x5

In which case THAT would be one hell of a discount.

 

[ULF_55]

Why would that cause a ticket increase, the cap is the same?

For perspective, after the lockout our seats were $37 per seat, they are now a little over $90 a seat.

Because our salaries have more than doubled.

 

[The Apologist]

I'll be quite honest with you, and as gentle as possible, you don't know what you're talking about.

It was well known Ferris approached other teams in attempt to solicit an offer sheet, and in fact, two of them were offered that Marner didn't sign.

Here's one, of thousands, of links:

Report: Blue Jackets among teams that have talked to Marner's camp about offer sheet - TSN.ca

The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of several teams that have talked to Mitch Marner's agent about a possible offer sheet, according to The Athletic's Aaron Portzline.

www.tsn.ca

Here's a quote from Ferris:

“Could we have done things differently? Maybe? As (Dubas) said I think we both learn things as we go along, whenever there’s some misjudgments made or anything along those lines,”

There's even a thread on it.

I'm not sure how that equates to soliciting an offer sheet? Sounds like Columbus was one of the teams negotiating with Mitch's agent, which sounds like normal agent work in free agency. I'm not sure his agent was out there saying 'Hey, do you wanna come offer my guy an offer sheet?' Is there maybe a different article you were referring to?

 

[The Apologist]

I'd say most definitions/understandings of "line driver" refer to the guy who creates the most plays out of nothing/ dictates the offensive play for the unit. Which Id suggest both statically and even eye test say its Nylander on that second line more than anyone else

I would suggest 'line driver' would equate to making the whole line play better.

Nylander is a great individual talent and can absolutely dominate a game on his own but I don't know that he really makes anyone else better.

Mitch makes his entire line better, creates chances for his linemates as well as himself. Well, until the playoffs anyway. He seems to disappear at that point.

 

[andora]

let's try an exercise, for just sheer curiousity. for nylander's third and UFA contract. let's compare him to some similar guys, who have recently signed their third contracts. let's go with:
Johnny Gaudreau
David Pastrnak
Filip Forsberg
Alex Debrincat
Timo Meier

Now let's see how each did during the lifespan of their 2nd contracts regarding primary point production and how cost efficient they were - let's look at Games Played over 2nd contract / primary points over 2nd contract / primary points per game on 2nd contract / Average Cap Hit per primary point for entire 2nd deal / Average cap hit % per primary point (different cap ceilings per year apply:

	GP	Primary Points Total	Primary Pts / Game	Avg Cap Hit / Prim Pt	Avg Cap Hit % / Prim Pt
Johnny Gaudreau	442	230	0.52	$198,306	0.25%
David Pastrnak	420	223	0.53	$187,553	0.23%
Filip Forsberg	384	166	0.43	$255,815	0.32%
Alex Debrincat	216	80	0.37	$240,293	0.29%
Timo Meier	279	115	0.41	$193,548	0.28%
William Nylander (1 yr left)	336	138	0.41	$206,729	0.35%

So - Willy will catch up in games however he is on the lower end of actual production, and is costing the highest percentage for his production. Now let's see what these teams paid these players based on said production - so we can plug in their new contracts to see how it affects their financial numbers. of course players are projected to play 82 games - so at their 2nd contract's Primary Pts per game numbers, they would be projected as following:

	Projected GP	Projected Primary Pts	Primary Pts / Season	Cap Hit per Primary Pt	Cap Hit % per primary point for first yr
Johnny Gaudreau - 7 yrs / 9.75 per year	574	298	42.5	$229,411	0.275%
David Pastrnak - 8 yrs / 11.25 per year	656	348	43.5	$258,621	0.3%
Filip Forsberg - 8 yrs / 8.5 per year	656	282	35	$242,857	0.29%
Alex Debrincat - 4 yrs / 7.875 per year	328	121	30	$262,500	0.33%
Timo Meier - 8 yrs / 8.8 per year	656	267	33	$266,667	0.31%
Averages				$252,011	0.3%

So looking at Nylander, let's say we offered him an average of $252,011 per primary point on his new deal, what would we end up with:

8 years - 656 games with his current average of 0.41 primary points per game.
this gets him 267 primary points - same as Timo Meier. so 267 primary points based on his history @ $252,011 per point, we would look at: $67,286,937. over 8 years, annually it is $8,410,867.

Now do we really expect nylander to sign that? never - so where does the surplus value come in to start bumping him up into the 'above average' of his direct peers. now of course he has one year left - so negotiating his contract will be based on him having another good year, has to be from their point of view. so let's add that in - let's say he replicates last season to keep it easy:

Nylander	games played	primary points total	primary points / game	cap hit per point	cap hit % per point
to date	336	138	0.41	$206,729	0.35%
final year projected	82	35	0.43	$198,924	0.24%
totals	418	173	0.41	$205,151	0.35%

so that doesn't change it really at all. and some numbers if we were to pay Nylander the same as all these other guys:

Same as Gaudreau $229,411	$61,252,737 or $7.66 per year
Same as Pastrnak $258,621	$69,051,807 or $8.63 per year
Same as Forsberg $242,857	$64,842,819 or 8.11 per year
Same as Debrincat $262,500	$70,087,500 or $8.76 per year
Same as Meier $266,667	$71,200,089 or 8.90 per year

So where else do we add value for nylander? hair?

 

[thusk]

I'd say most definitions/understandings of "line driver" refer to the guy who creates the most plays out of nothing/ dictates the offensive play for the unit. Which Id suggest both statically and even eye test say its Nylander on that second line more than anyone else

If by creating most of plays out of nothing by constantly cheating in the defensive zone is your definition of driving a line... we dont have the same definition

Everyone taking for granted than tavares making nylander worst but sorry its just too easy...

Who needed to play 2X harder close of the net on both side because the fast guy doing everything to avoid contact? Whos need to cover the fast guy who constantly cheating in the defensive zone for breakaway or 2v1? I know playing good defensive game is not as sexy than making highlight play but everything started by how your defending especially in playoff... if you dont have the puck, its pretty hard to score and its start by playing hard in your own zone and winning the front of the net...

Ps Tavares had succes whatever with wich player he played with during his entire career.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I'm not sure how that equates to soliciting an offer sheet? Sounds like Columbus was one of the teams negotiating with Mitch's agent, which sounds like normal agent work in free agency. I'm not sure his agent was out there saying 'Hey, do you wanna come offer my guy an offer sheet?' Is there maybe a different article you were referring to?

So what you are suggesting is that it is normal for a bunch of teams to approach an agent with offer sheets for a RFA?

Funny, cause the only other offer sheets I know of in the last umpteen number of years were the ones between Montreal and Carolina.

But if you can show me this is common practice I can buy it. Maybe a link to some recent offer sheets. There must be all kinds since this is "normal agent work in free agency".

What we know, for fact, is that Marner had two offer sheets that summer.

Marner ended up getting signed first, and for the most, out of all the RFA's that summer. Maybe those two offer sheets Ferris recieved had something to do with that. Whether it was the other teams who approached Marner, or whether it was Marner's agent that approached those other teams, well, I guess you can decide for yourself which sounds more reasonable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You or someone else was talking about basing a contract off of 1 outstanding season as opposed to a body of work so the story goes!
There's this guy who wants to give his team a 13, 14 or 15m dollar sweetheart of a discount deal or at least be the highest paid guy in the league or something like that because of;
not ever winning a scoring title
or not leading his team past the second round
or maybe because of scoring 60 goals once.
Now Im not sure what's truly important on that list, but I sure as shooting know that one of those things might be pretty important to someone.

To be clear, Matthews isn't getting the contract he's getting because he "scored 60 goals once". He's getting the contract he's getting because a multi-year sample puts him as the best and most valuable UFA to sign a currently legal contract in the cap era.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So what you are suggesting is that it is normal for a bunch of teams to approach an agent with offer sheets for a RFA?
Funny, cause the only other offer sheets I know of in the last umpteen number of years were the ones between Montreal and Carolina.

Players get offer sheets that fans don't hear about. Fans usually only hear about ones that are accepted and signed by the player. The only reason we know about the offer sheets that Marner and Point got offered is because there was such a media frenzy around offer sheets and RFA re-signings in the 2019 offseason.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

So what you are suggesting is that it is normal for a bunch of teams to approach an agent with offer sheets for a RFA?

Funny, cause the only other offer sheets I know of in the last umpteen number of years were the ones between Montreal and Carolina.

But if you can show me this is common practice I can buy it. Maybe a link to some recent offer sheets. There must be all kinds since this is "normal agent work in free agency".

What we know, for fact, is that Marner had two offer sheets that summer.

Marner ended up getting signed first, and for the most, out of all the RFA's that summer. Maybe those two offer sheets Ferris recieved had something to do with that. Whether it was the other teams who approached Marner, or whether it was Marner's agent that approached those other teams, well, I guess you can decide for yourself which sounds more reasonable.

Those were the ones that were signed but surely You don't believe they were the only ones offered

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Those were the ones that were signed but surely You don't believe they were the only ones offered

Thank you for the response.

He made the claim. The onus is on him to prove it. Not for me to disprove it.

At any rate, I could only find the Marner and Aho/Point offer sheets from 2019 and the corresponding Kotkaniemo retaliation offer sheet.

Point and Aho share the same agent, and the same team (Montreal) made offer sheets to them. That makes me suspect it's the agents pursuing the teams, not the teams pursuing the agents. But if we're be completely honest here, it's almost certainly a combination of them both.

Like two dogs circling around sniffing each other's butts.

 

[hullsy47]

Those are not rumours, it is speculation, spitballing, shooting the shit or whatever you want to call it, a rumour is a total different animal.

Well at least try .these guys are the reason media personalities are getting canned all over

 

[ULF_55]

Most recent 4 years playoffs

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Sum of EVP[/TD]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]

[TD]

20192020​

[/TD]

[TD]

20202021​

[/TD]

[TD]

20212022​

[/TD]

[TD]

20222023​

[/TD]

[TD]Grand Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grand Total[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

38​

[/TD]

[TD]

90​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[notDatsyuk]

I would suggest 'line driver' would equate to making the whole line play better.

Nylander is a great individual talent and can absolutely dominate a game on his own but I don't know that he really makes anyone else better.

Mitch makes his entire line better, creates chances for his linemates as well as himself. Well, until the playoffs anyway. He seems to disappear at that point.

I would suggest that being second on the team in assists at 5 on 5, despite playing with Tavares and various marginal 2nd liners, would indicate that he "creates chances for his linemates as well as himself".

I'd hate to think what JT would look like without him.

 

[ULF_55]

Most recent 4 years playoffs

Sum of EVG	Season
Player	20192020​	20202021​	20212022​	20222023​	Grand Total
Auston Matthews	1​	1​	3​	4​	9​
John Tavares	2​		2​	3​	7​
Mitchell Marner	0​	0​	2​	2​	4​
Morgan Rielly	1​	1​	2​	4​	8​
William Nylander	1​	4​	2​	2​	9​
Grand Total	5​	6​	11​	15​	37​