Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[ACC1224]

Willie's.

How will we know what that is and why would they go over that by 10%?

 

[81Leafs50]

So 46+m/88m next year and 42+m/90+m the subsequent years for 4 guys who have won nothing as a core.

If you think you are going to trade out Marner, Nylander, Tavares, or Reilly who are dragging the Leafs to victories despite bad defense and shaky goaltending for other guys and think the Leafs will be better somehow is pipe dream. Guys have come here with winning backgrounds and totally crumbled. O'Reilly being the latest example.

 

[therealkoho]

Nylander is no Pastrnak. They are not the same player and bring the same value.

While I will agree that Filthy Billy is no Pasta, and so shouldn't be paid the same way, nor has Will outscored Tkachuk, but he is a Leaf, people are uber excited and you've got the argument that those contracts were signed with less money available to the players.

But you won't hear that argument from me.

The emergence of Will into Filthy Billy started last year and has been fantastic to watch.

Leafs fans have waited a good long while for it to happen. Some people say he's out produced his contract and IMHO he has the last two seasons and he's on track for doing it again.

10 and change for 4 years wouldn't be out of line.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Okay, so over the last three years can we agree that Willy has put up around a point/game, regular season and playoffs? This year he's exploded to 1.588/game, after 17 games. Fabulous work by Willy, full stop. I've said during his time here that he may be the most talented player on the roster. We're seeing it now. For 17 games. The one constant I've read here about Willy is that he 'could' be one of the best players in the game, but he's not consistent enough. Now we're supposed to believe that consistency is his strength? I'm not buying it. If he puts up a 120 point season and leads us to a Cup, give him the moon and say goodbye Mitch. But I'm not signing him today at north of 11 because of a 17 game hot streak. Cheers.

Apparently the Athletic has some model whereby Nylander's worth has after 17 games gone way up. Not sure what it was before, not it's between 10.5 and 11. I don't care much for their models TBH, just throwing that out there but 10.5 sounds reasonable so I agree, not giving him north of 11 (as of today). Again, I think the biggest problem is Marner - if Willie signs for 10.5, has a much better season than Marner and they give Marner 12 ... I think it's possible he wants to avoid that and the way to do that is to not sign until the Marner extension is done. One thing you gotta like about Willie, he seems to be more than comfortable betting on himself!

I don't think he's signing anytime soon so we can revisit after 34 games, then 51 and so on. I don't think he'll maintain this pace for the entire season.

 

[notDatsyuk]

For someone pushing for "5v5 per 60 on Tuesdays above average replacement pacing" stats, you have a hard time understanding goals allowed per minute on PK.

Don't fall into the trap of laughing at his weird takes - the laugh shows up as a like in his totals. Sometimes I think that's the only explanation for some of his posts.

 

[Drytoast]

While I will agree that Filthy Billy is no Pasta, and so shouldn't be paid the same way, nor has Will outscored Tkachuk, but he is a Leaf, people are uber excited and you've got the argument that those contracts were signed with less money available to the players.

But you won't hear that argument from me.

The emergence of Will into Filthy Billy started last year and has been fantastic to watch.

Leafs fans have waited a good long while for it to happen. Some people say he's out produced his contract and IMHO he has the last two seasons and he's on track for doing it again.

10 and change for 4 years wouldn't be out of line.

Would trade in the core 4 for a team of hard workers that have 4 lines they can roll endlessly.

Basically Florida or Boston style teams. Give me that. It's much more entertaining to watch.

 

[DuklaNation]

How will we know what that is and why would they go over that by 10%?

He reportedly turned down $9.5M this offseason. As per capfriendly, 15 players make $10M+ as cap hit. There are only 11 forwards in that group. So he wants to be the 12th highest paid forward in the entire league. In that group are 3 of his teammates. What a coincidence. So, very shortly, Leafs will have 4 of the top 12 cap hit forwards in the NHL.

That is how teams get run into the ground. Overpaying for overrated performance. Good GMs lock players in earlier at better rates. Bad ones let the players dictate everything.

 

[Drytoast]

He reportedly turned down $9.5M this offseason. As per capfriendly, 15 players make $10M+ as cap hit. There are only 11 forwards in that group. So he wants to be the 12th highest paid forward in the entire league. In that group are 3 of his teammates. What a coincidence. So, very shortly, Leafs will have 4 of the top 12 cap hit forwards in the NHL.

That is how teams get run into the ground. Overpaying for overrated performance. Good GMs lock players in earlier at better rates. Bad ones let the players dictate everything.

Remember...they want that money having never proven that they can win anything when it matters.

And we paid it. Because they sell merch I guess.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs are going to pay full market rate +10%. Then everyone will wonder why they can't improve the team. The players are using this situation to their advantage and the overall product suffers for it.

I think the only guys that really got overpaid are Marner, Matthews and JT.

Matthews overpayment is really small though and he is a unicorn so I have no problem with that.

JT comes with an asterix - UFA's get overpaid on a regular basis so you could argue that he got the market rate, and therefore isn't overpaid.

Marner is the only clear mistake. He was NOT a UFA, Dubas didn't use the leverage he had. So far the impact of that contract hasn't spread to others, but right now is where it becomes a problem IMO as I think it's impacting WIllie's ask. If Marner was making 9 (or 9.5 tops) on a 7 year deal like he should be, we'd have a much easier time signing Nylander. JMHO.

Dubas really f***ed up big time on this one. He said before the summer that he wanted to get Marner's deal done early, did not want to through the same situation as he did with Nylander, I was like WTF are doing dude? He held firm on a number, was willing to let Willie sit out the season if that's what it takes and Nylander caved at literally the last minute - that's exactly what he should have done with Marner. The way to get it done earlier is to pay him more than he should, he basically announces to the world that that's his plan with Marner and Marner's agent is probably laughing hysterically to this day.

Chickens coming home to roost.

 

[therealkoho]

The issue is the overpay on marner.

I think the correct number is $10mm, probably for both.

Huberdeau feasted on assists, same as marner. Playing with the best goal scorer in the game over the past 5 years is going to do that.

I like the Matthews term, and think less term, higher Cap is better for the team.

The amounts like 11.5-12.5 are just as bad as the $10.9mm marner got.

Marner has put in most of his time with the captain, the rest with the guy he turned into a Hart trophy winner and the highest paid player in the league.

All kidding aside when did the league and its fans start devaluing playmakers?

In all my years I watched other teams always have the leagues best playmakers, now the Leafs finally have one, a guy whos likely headed to the HoF. A guy who is always pushing the Leafs offence, leading the defence, fearlessly blocking shots and running one of the leagues premier PPs.

It is the most head shakingly vacant arguments I have ever seen.

The kid is a huge asset to this team, when somebody was slumping the coach stapled Marner to the guy to get him going, and the guy got going. It wasn't a coincidence.

 

[ACC1224]

He reportedly turned down $9.5M this offseason. As per capfriendly, 15 players make $10M+ as cap hit. There are only 11 forwards in that group. So he wants to be the 12th highest paid forward in the entire league. In that group are 3 of his teammates. What a coincidence. So, very shortly, Leafs will have 4 of the top 12 cap hit forwards in the NHL.

That is how teams get run into the ground. Overpaying for overrated performance. Good GMs lock players in earlier at better rates. Bad ones let the players dictate everything.

Even if all of that were true, why would they then go 10% over it?

 

[therealkoho]

How will we know what that is and why would they go over that by 10%?

Because they've done it with Austin twice already.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner has put in most of his time with the captain, the rest with the guy he turned into a Hart trophy winner and the highest paid player in the league.

All kidding aside when did the league and its fans start devaluing playmakers?

In all my years I watched other teams always have the leagues best playmakers, now the Leafs finally have one, a guy whos likely headed to the HoF. A guy who is always pushing the Leafs offence, leading the defence, fearlessly blocking shots and running one of the leagues premier PPs.

It is the most head shakingly vacant arguments I have ever seen.

The kid is a huge asset to this team, when somebody was slumping the coach stapled Marner to the guy to get him going, and the guy got going. It wasn't a coincidence.

It's all down to the cap. Worse thing to happen for fans.

Because they've done it with Austin twice already.

Overpaid him by 10%?
He's valued at 'x' but they decided they would give him 'x' plus 10% ? makes no sense.

 

[therealkoho]

Would trade in the core 4 for a team of hard workers that have 4 lines they can roll endlessly.

Basically Florida or Boston style teams. Give me that. It's much more entertaining to watch.

I'd only trade one of them

 

[therealkoho]

I think the only guys that really got overpaid are Marner, Matthews and JT.

Matthews overpayment is really small though and he is a unicorn so I have no problem with that.

JT comes with an asterix - UFA's get overpaid on a regular basis so you could argue that he got the market rate, and therefore isn't overpaid.

Marner is the only clear mistake. He was NOT a UFA, Dubas didn't use the leverage he had. So far the impact of that contract hasn't spread to others, but right now is where it becomes a problem IMO as I think it's impacting WIllie's ask. If Marner was making 9 (or 9.5 tops) on a 7 year deal like he should be, we'd have a much easier time signing Nylander. JMHO.

Dubas really f***ed up big time on this one. He said before the summer that he wanted to get Marner's deal done early, did not want to through the same situation as he did with Nylander, I was like WTF are doing dude? He held firm on a number, was willing to let Willie sit out the season if that's what it takes and Nylander caved at literally the last minute - that's exactly what he should have done with Marner. The way to get it done earlier is to pay him more than he should, he basically announces to the world that that's his plan with Marner and Marner's agent is probably laughing hysterically to this day.

Chickens coming home to roost.

The screw up was allowing 34 to bend the last guy and now the new guy over!

 

[notDatsyuk]

As good as Willie has been, Pasta still putting up better numbers and with lesser linemates.

View attachment 771175

Lots of players off to hot starts.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pastrnak and Kutcherov keep it up (if not quite the same pace), but I'm expecting the Canuck trio to come back to earth eventually.

Who is Pastrnak playing with? Is Marchand a worse player than JT (maybe a bit)? Is Coyle worse than Bert (who had a pretty crappy start)? What about Boston's defence compared to ours?

I think he's a better all-round player, but I'm not so sure about the 'lesser linemates' aspect.

 

[therealkoho]

It's all down to the cap. Worse thing to happen for fans.


Overpaid him by 10%?
He's valued at 'x' but they decided they would give him 'x' plus 10% ? makes no sense.

He has been overpaid twice regardless of whatever formulas people want to use.

Overpaid is overpaid no percentages required, whether its a 3m dollar guy getting 4m or a 10m dollar guy getting 12m

The Leafs will keep shuffling the deck chairs with the lesser lights and keep allowing this self created caste system to continue. With the same results

 

[ACC1224]

He has been overpaid twice regardless of whatever formulas people want to use.

Overpaid is overpaid no percentages required, whether its a 3m dollar guy getting 4m or a 10m dollar guy getting 12m

The Leafs will keep shuffling the deck chairs with the lesser lights and keep allowing this self created caste system to continue. With the same results

You lost me there, not that important though.
The impression I got from the OP was that the player asks for his value and the team gives him that plus 10%.

 

[DuklaNation]

Even if all of that were true, why would they then go 10% over it?

You would have 4 of the top 12 forwards in cap hit in the entire league. Why? You're paying a premium all the time. Statistically, that is a proven fact given that info.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lots of players off to hot starts.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pastrnak and Kutcherov keep it up (if not quite the same pace), but I'm expecting the Canuck trio to come back to earth eventually.

Who is Pastrnak playing with? Is Marchand a worse player than JT (maybe a bit)? Is Coyle worse than Bert (who had a pretty crappy start)? What about Boston's defence compared to ours?

I think he's a better all-round player, but I'm not so sure about the 'lesser linemates' aspect.

Marchand's better IMO.

 

[ACC1224]

You would have 4 of the top 12 forwards in cap hit in the entire league. Why? You're paying a premium all the time. Statistically, that is a proven fact given that info.

Why the 10% though? Why not just pay their ask?

 

[Drytoast]

I'd only trade one of them

Can't have the team I described while at the same time having 2 or 3 overpriced divas who lead the character of the team.

 

[Arzak]

"5v5 per 60 on Tuesdays above average replacement pacing" isn't a stat, or even really a legible combination of words.
Goals allowed per minute is a modification of a stat (GA/60), but not a stat that shows the defensive play of skaters (not that it suggests Marner to be bad at PKing anyway).
When you actually look at skater defensive metrics on the PK, and add in the context of Marner facing top units and the toughest situations, it's very clear that Marner is a top tier PKer, both offensively and defensively. You've been shown this plenty of times.

You keep on pretending GA/60 on PK need more context.

Mitch is facing tougher competition on PK that's why his GA/60 is so bad. That's a new one.

 

[notDatsyuk]

He reportedly turned down $9.5M this offseason. As per capfriendly, 15 players make $10M+ as cap hit. There are only 11 forwards in that group. So he wants to be the 12th highest paid forward in the entire league. In that group are 3 of his teammates. What a coincidence. So, very shortly, Leafs will have 4 of the top 12 cap hit forwards in the NHL.

That is how teams get run into the ground. Overpaying for overrated performance. Good GMs lock players in earlier at better rates. Bad ones let the players dictate everything.

Agreed, and I think that's a big part of the problem. Of the three, one definitely belongs in the $10+ group, but I'm not sure about the other two (maybe just $10, but not $11).

 

[therealkoho]

You lost me there, not that important though.
The impression I got from the OP was that the player asks for his value and the team gives him that plus 10%.

Yeah, I'm not sure what that meant unless they meant that player X asks for 10m and gets 11m

What I meant is simply overpaid is overpaid