Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[TheMadHatTrick]

We can sign both. Cap goes up 4 million next year. Klinberg, Sammy, Brodie, Bertuzzi, and Domi off the books. By the time Marner's extension kicks in Tavares 11 million comes off the books.

 

[ToneDog]

We can sign both. Cap goes up 4 million next year. Klinberg, Sammy, Brodie, Bertuzzi, and Domi off the books. By the time Marner's extension kicks in Tavares 11 million comes off the books.

Yup, but you probably can't ice as good a team until JT comes off the books the following year, at which point Mitch will be up again. Oh what fun.

 

[ToneDog]

Mitch looked like the old Mitch when he put up 8 points in 2 games. Who is the imposter that has put up 9 points in 13 games ?? Seems like feast or famine for Mitch and Matty (11g in 4 games - 2 in 11) while it has been smooth sailing for Willie. Who would have thought a few year back?

 

[Gary Nylund]

This thread reminds me of the exaggeration thread. One day between now and the end of June you will see a tweet saying that the Leafs have signed Nylander. Some will hate the number, others will think it's a great deal for the team. It's all irrelevant. There is no circumstance under which Toronto will let him go, so they will ultimately offer him enough to persuade him to pass on free agency. And, yes, the same will then happen with Marner. They will continue to make the cap work by spending less on goaltending, which history has proven is the right approach.

Considering how bad your predictions have been (at least the ones that I've noticed), now I'm really scared.

 

[rumman]

Yup, but you probably can't ice as good a team until JT comes off the books the following year, at which point Mitch will be up again. Oh what fun.

That’s the problem, want your 4 shiny toys, can’t have anything else to improve the team. And for those sure the cap will go up, please remember the cap is EXPECTED to go up, but nothing certain, but death and taxes, all it’d take is another lock down or a world war and those chickens won’t hatch………

I get where you're coming from, but I think a big problem is that Nylander isn't worth that much as a rental. The time to trade one of the big guns was after we lost to MTL, Marner as a 1st team all-star under contract for 4 more years was worth a ton and trading him was a way of changing the dynamic of the team. If you're going to move Willie, you may as well sit down with M&M first, tell them the team is going nowhere and it's time to tear it all down and basically force them to agree to trades, get rid of everyone in one fell swoop. Ask JT if he wants to go as well and if not, he can stay to lead the tank and look to rise again 5 years again now or whatever.

I'm making no assumptions about Nylander because of anything his father was or wasn't, but that's me.

Wow, that would be some world class rebuild, never happen though, they’ll continue to fail innthe spring until all four have moved on imo…….

 

[Mess]

Nylander is the current team leader in points with 22 points on the year, 3 ahead of Matthews in almost 2 less minutes per game. Nylander's 10 goals are 2nd on the team, behind only Matthews, and his 12 assists are tied with Mitch Marner for most assists on the team through 15 games.

With Matthews having signed a new 4-year extension at $13.25M per season as an all-situations center, and Marner having this season and next remaining at $10.9M per season as the team's top line right winger, it would be surprising to see Nylander, who is outperforming both players at the moment, sign for less than $10.5M.

If he does, I think we can probably consider that a hometown discount at this point.

One could make a strong case that if you kept only 1 winger that Nylander would be the better option and return on investment.

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander is the current team leader in points with 22 points on the year, 3 ahead of Matthews in almost 2 less minutes per game. Nylander's 10 goals are 2nd on the team, behind only Matthews, and his 12 assists are tied with Mitch Marner for most assists on the team through 15 games.

With Matthews having signed a new 4-year extension at $13.25M per season as an all-situations center, and Marner having this season and next remaining at $10.9M per season as the team's top line right winger, it would be surprising to see Nylander, who is outperforming both players at the moment, sign for less than $10.5M.

If he does, I think we can probably consider that a hometown discount at this point.

One could make a strong case that if you kept only 1 winger that Nylander would be the better option and return on investment.

You cannot compare one 86 point season and a 14 game sample size to Matty's accomplishments. Willie does look like a $10m player so far but I need to see more before I go over $10m. Mitch needs to take a haircut the way he has been playing but what he does next year will determine his market value.

 

[thewave]

Dubas’ sneaky timing on the Marner contract was insurance policy imo, left little to no time for a new GM to trade 16.……..

He calculated everything. Right from the start if anyone reads back i basically said he was con man and couldn't be trusted. Actually surprised myself how on the money I was with him.

The Marner and Nylander contracts are pretty difficult now for sure though. Depressing to be so blessed and so cursed all at once.

 

[Evilhomer]

Considering how bad your predictions have been (at least the ones that I've noticed), now I'm really scared.

Actually, almost all of my predictions have been right. You're just too focussed on minute by minute outcomes rather than longer-term outcomes, and you treat each loss as some sort of cataclysmic outcome instead of simple building blocks. When Toronto catches Boston, we can revisit people's predictions for this team.

 

[arso40]

You cannot compare one 86 point season and a 14 game sample size to Matty's accomplishments. Willie does look like a $10m player so far but I need to see more before I go over $10m. Mitch needs to take a haircut the way he has been playing but what he does next year will determine his market value.

Looks like more than 10 mil to me

 

[ACC1224]

It's going to be a long week.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Actually, almost all of my predictions have been right. You're just too focussed on minute by minute outcomes rather than longer-term outcomes, and you treat each loss as some sort of cataclysmic outcome instead of simple building blocks. When Toronto catches Boston, we can revisit people's predictions for this team.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

I've noticed 3 predictions you've made. The first two turned out to be wrong, and the 3rd we'll see but will likely turn out to be wrong as well.

What's funniest here is this LOLOLOL bolded part. I will judge this team about 90% based on how they do in the playoffs, I've been saying and doing that for years and. But it's also funny how you say "when" we catch Boston, instead of "if" we catch Boston as if it's guaranteed to happen. Yo did the same thing when you said everyone will forget about losing to LA "when" we beat Boston, don't you ever learn?

Guess what, I still remember that we lost to LA and how poorly we played in the process. Get a grip.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Things can and likely will obviously change in terms of the plan and course. But my hunch is the plan of the next wave/phase/window of this team is to include both Nylander and Marner. The cap savings and allocations (aka more spent on defence than before) come from a rising cap, savings on a next Tavares contract or potentially no contract for him at all. As well as getting cheap contributions from the young crop of forwards (Knies, Robertson, Minten, Cowan).

I have not run the math, but my guess is that can work and will be make or break on whether the young forwards can also produce as well as if the defensive changes are the right ones.

 

[thewave]

Things can and likely will obviously change in terms of the plan and course. But my hunch is the plan of the next wave/phase/window of this team is to include both Nylander and Marner. The cap savings and allocations (aka more spent on defence than before) come from a rising cap, savings on a next Tavares contract or potentially no contract for him at all. As well as getting cheap contributions from the young crop of forwards (Knies, Robertson, Minten, Cowan).

I have not run the math, but my guess is that can work and will be make or break on whether the young forwards can also produce as well as if the defensive changes are the right ones.

Have to lose JTs cap to get better D. You can't get something from nothing as they say.

 

[ULF_55]

8*10 would be a fair price, maybe a touch high.

The following is not fact, it is my impression. I'm a Leafs fan, but Nylander is one of my current favorites to watch, and I like his attitude. Maybe because of how he grew up, he doesn't seem need, nor desire adulation. He doesn't appear full of himself. Doesn't have a family "protecting" him from big bad management. At most we hear about his father's history, not his father's current interference.

His current performance is just getting rewarded, and even Keefe made a point about his defensive efforts, which appear to becoming a larger part of his game.

So while some are reacting to his current performance with how much he makes should be equal to marner, I disagree, perhaps because in my opinion marner is overpaid, and is very dependent on Matthews to elevate his stats. So maybe Nylander should be making as much as marner should be making, but not as marner is making.

It is the term that concerns me with all of the forwards on the team.

Nylander making $10mm for the next 5 years seems very reasonable.
Nylander making $10mm for the next 8 years seems risky.

In this regard, Matthews deal doesn't concern me as much, if he falls off a cliff Leafs are not stuck with an albatross contract. If Matthews elevates his game and becomes the best player in hockey, he earns a raise, as it should be. That would be a win-win.

I think the structure of the Nylander deal if front end high, decreasing, within CBA rules, to a reasonable amount at age 33. So in actual money he can make $12mm per season for a couple seasons, or more based on signing bonuses.

I just don't think double digits at 35 is a good risk.

 

[arso40]

8*10 would be a fair price, maybe a touch high.

The following is not fact, it is my impression. I'm a Leafs fan, but Nylander is one of my current favorites to watch, and I like his attitude. Maybe because of how he grew up, he doesn't seem need, nor desire adulation. He doesn't appear full of himself. Doesn't have a family "protecting" him from big bad management. At most we hear about his father's history, not his father's current interference.

His current performance is just getting rewarded, and even Keefe made a point about his defensive efforts, which appear to becoming a larger part of his game.

So while some are reacting to his current performance with how much he makes should be equal to marner, I disagree, perhaps because in my opinion marner is overpaid, and is very dependent on Matthews to elevate his stats. So maybe Nylander should be making as much as marner should be making, but not as marner is making.

It is the term that concerns me with all of the forwards on the team.

Nylander making $10mm for the next 5 years seems very reasonable.
Nylander making $10mm for the next 8 years seems risky.

In this regard, Matthews deal doesn't concern me as much, if he falls off a cliff Leafs are not stuck with an albatross contract. If Matthews elevates his game and becomes the best player in hockey, he earns a raise, as it should be. That would be a win-win.

I think the structure of the Nylander deal if front end high, decreasing, within CBA rules, to a reasonable amount at age 33. So in actual money he can make $12mm per season for a couple seasons, or more based on signing bonuses.

I just don't think double digits at 35 is a good risk.

It’s a tough sale on nylander buying into what marner should have got though 9.5 - 10? Cause I think that shipped sailed if I’m Willy I want 11

 

[Evilhomer]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

I've noticed 3 predictions you've made. The first two turned out to be wrong, and the 3rd we'll see but will likely turn out to be wrong as well.

What's funniest here is this LOLOLOL bolded part. I will judge this team about 90% based on how they do in the playoffs, I've been saying and doing that for years and. But it's also funny how you say "when" we catch Boston, instead of "if" we catch Boston as if it's guaranteed to happen. Yo did the same thing when you said everyone will forget about losing to LA "when" we beat Boston, don't you ever learn?

Guess what, I still remember that we lost to LA and how poorly we played in the process. Get a grip.

The leafs are 6 points behind Boston after the Leafs have played some of their worst hockey and the Bruins have played some of their best hockey. It's completely reasonable to suggest that these two things will each gravitate closer to the mean, and I think it will easily be enough for the Leafs to make up a 6 point deficit. Now, they may both end up being passed by Florida, but the Panthers have had a pretty easy schedule to start the season.

 

[kb]

Dubas’ sneaky timing on the Marner contract was insurance policy imo, left little to no time for a new GM to trade 16.……..

Just like Lou's sneaky timing too?

 

[rumman]

Just like Lou's sneaky timing too?

Lou was fired, Dubas got himself axed, big difference imo..............

 

[hotpaws]

JT signed for 13.84% of the cap as a ufa and i endlessly read he gave us a discount.

Both Mitch and Willie are better players so see if they'll take 14% and put out a back story how mystery team x was ready to offer them 15-17% of the cap . maybe post Mitch in Leaf merch as a kid to cement how his heart has only been to play in Tor .

 

[Gary Nylund]

The leafs are 6 points behind Boston after the Leafs have played some of their worst hockey and the Bruins have played some of their best hockey. It's completely reasonable to suggest that these two things will each gravitate closer to the mean, and I think it will easily be enough for the Leafs to make up a 6 point deficit. Now, they may both end up being passed by Florida, but the Panthers have had a pretty easy schedule to start the season.

Boston also has a game in hand, and the way things are going they will probably win which would make it 8 points but even 6 points is a pretty big lead this early in the season. You should really look at the standing by PTS%, Boston .857 and the Leafs are .600. Boston is 2nd overall, the Leafs are 9th.

Or, look at it this way, Boston is 11-1-2 with a goal differential of +18 while Toronto is 8-5-2 with a goal differential of +1.

As far as "close to the mean", that's pretty funny - who's to say what "the mean is"? Boston finished 24 points ahead of us last season, is that it?

Anything can happen but saying "when" we take over 1st place as if it's sure to happen is ridiculous, and nothing more than irrational homerism. Cheers!

 

[notDatsyuk]

That was a nifty little no look pass to JT. Had that been Marner, I bet we'd have seen a dozen posts by now about Marner's vision and how "super crazy elite" he is. Anyhoo, hope we win this one. Things have gotten a bit dicy.

What? No mention that the guy who is world-famous for avoiding contact at all costs actually took a hit to make that play?

And you pretend to be a Willy supporter!

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nothing Nylander can do trumps Marner's reputation. What's worse, they opt to ignore anyone's achievements unless it's Mitch Money.


It happens if you convince yourself secondary assists and unassisted goals are equal.

Good thing Willy can't score short-handed.

 

[kb]

Lou was fired, Dubas got himself axed, big difference imo..............

Lou left for the Islanders on his own - he wasn't fired.

Exact same situation

 

[ACC1224]

Good thing Willy can't score short-handed.

He got one the other night, was a beauty.