Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[Gallagbi]

We definitely would have a hard time establishing the anti-Ville Leino or anti-Valeri Nichushkin whose salary demands collapsed after terrible players, but I think it would just be baked into whatever salary that got on their contracts.

Like for example, Taylor Hall received a series of fairly disappointing contracts after his big Hart breakout, but you'd have a hard time distinguishing between whether poor regular season performances cost him or just a career's worth of not really being a playoff performer lowered his status as a player generally.

Hall never really had a playoff opportunity and his only shot was a decent showing in Arizona. He was locked up for 2 years after the Hart season fwiw and that looked more like a blip than breakout when hitting the market

Nikushin and Leino are such interesting examples. Both huge pay days after 1 good playoff, and some other disappointing ones mixed in - especially Nik

 

[Gabriel426]

Nobody hates WN.
Reality is without JT Willie would get 9 or 10 gir 5 years easy. But we have JT and therefore unless JT announces his retirement effective end of this up coming season we cannot keep Willie.
So only 4 choices, trade him NOW, play him all season and trade him by trade deadline, lose him without compensation at end if year, or sign him now for 4 years at 9.5 or 10 without giving him a no trade clause and trade him when ever.
We cannot get rid of the other 3, so Willie has to go.

OR the Leafs just replace Bert with a ELC forward.

 

[Evilhomer]

Nobody hates WN.
Reality is without JT Willie would get 9 or 10 gir 5 years easy. But we have JT and therefore unless JT announces his retirement effective end of this up coming season we cannot keep Willie.
So only 4 choices, trade him NOW, play him all season and trade him by trade deadline, lose him without compensation at end if year, or sign him now for 4 years at 9.5 or 10 without giving him a no trade clause and trade him when ever.
We cannot get rid of the other 3, so Willie has to go.

Why isn't one of the options "sign him, and play him"? I would have thought that this off-season yet again demonstrated that the salary cap isn't preventing a team from getting better while also keeping its best players.

 

[Evilhomer]

OR the Leafs just replace Bert with a ELC forward.

Pretty much. Good chance Bertuzzi hits 40 goals this season, and that will price him out of Toronto.

 

[ER89]

at this point just sign him. No point in letting him walk when matty signed for what he signed.

Willy is a gamer and if im him i dont take a penny less than 9.5 considering what M&M have gotten or will want.

 

[Stephen]

Hall never really had a playoff opportunity and his only shot was a decent showing in Arizona. He was locked up for 2 years after the Hart season fwiw and that looked more like a blip than breakout when hitting the market

Nikushin and Leino are such interesting examples. Both huge pay days after 1 good playoff, and some other disappointing ones mixed in - especially Nik

Yeah, not easy to find examples of someone with elite regular season and not very good playoffs track record. Maybe Huberdeau, but he had no issues getting paid last year. Matthew Tkachuk was also a playoff underachiever until this year, I suppose he didn't quite make as much as he could have, but the situation was fairly atypical with a sign and trade and maneuvering out of Calgary. Gaudreau sucks in the playoffs, but he's also had up and down seasons and his Columbus signing was out of left field.

 

[Trapper]

Is another team going to give him $11 million? If all he wants is money, he would get the most on an 8 year deal from Toronto. He and his agent know that. I am sure that he will end up signing for something less than $9.5 million with Toronto, and all the people that hate him will continue to hate him, and all the people that love him will continue to love him. Then, when Toronto wins, everyone will love all of them.

A team like Seattle who has made it just as far as we have in the postseason, with nobody talking up huge contracts, playing against teams like Vegas, Colorado, Edmonton, LA would probably give him 10.5. Why not. Huberdeau got it. Another 40-40 + from Willy and for sure a team like that will.
Of course we can pay it. Just add it to the 12.5 Marner will be going after. It never ends. Then we can do it again in 4 years. Hope we win 2 rounds by then.

 

[Stephen]

So just thinking about Nylander at 7 or 8 years in the $9 million-$11 million range...

Leafs offers

8 years at $9.0 million = $72 million
8 years at $9.25 million = $74 million
8 years at $9.50 million = $76 million
8 years at $9.75 million = $78 million
8 years at $10 million = $80 million

vs other teams

7 years at $10 million = $70 million
7 years at $10.25 million = $71.25 million
7 years at $10.50 million = $73.50 million
7 years at $10.75 million = $75.25 million
7 years at $11.00 million = $77 million

If Nylander isn't thinking like Matthews and is going max. term, high AAV like a conventional NHL star, the full 8 years Toronto can offer are more competitive dollar packages than what he would get once he hits UFA.

He could receive the 7 year, $11 million Tavares deal from another team, but that would only be $5 million more in actual dollars than Toronto at $9 million over 8 years on the far lower end of the AAV spectrum. Of course there's the opportunity cost factored into the extra year with Toronto, but who knows how much he's worth in his mid 30s.

I remain hopeful something sensible can get done.

 

[KPower]

4x$9.5

 

[notDatsyuk]

I dont disagree with this and I think changing the pieces or makeup is fine, it just comes with risk.

But circling back to the original point of the team's playoff failure lowering their ask, it doesnt seem to hold true anywhere in the NHL.

Maybe look at it from the other side.

If playoff success increases the ask, and playoff failure doesn't, then it is effectively lowering it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Matthews received a 14% increase and Nylander at 10 million will receive a 42% increase? I'm sure Leaf Management has sent a message coming in at 8.5 million a 20% increase at best.

That just shows how badly the previous contracts were handled. Matthews was overpaid and Nylander was underpaid.

 

[Squiffy]

I think if Nylander came in at $9.25 to $9.5 million on an 8 year deal, you just bite the bullet and prolong your time with the asset. Re-assess down the road.

I'd do that. That's a steal in 2 years for years after it, probably not great by the end. But the cap will be what, at least 110m by then? I'd guess a lot higher. The % wouldn't be bad.

 

[slozo]

Nylander for Hanifin. Make it happen Tre

 

[Gabriel426]

Pretty much. Good chance Bertuzzi hits 40 goals this season, and that will price him out of Toronto.

If he hits 40 goals, even if Willie is traded, he will price himself out.

On the other hand, it will be a signal to other players that didn’t get the contract they want and sign a cheaper 1yr deal with the Leafs in hopes to pop up their stats and score a big contract the following season

 

[Squiffy]

If he hits 40 goals, even if Willie is traded, he will price himself out.

On the other hand, it will be a signal to other players that didn’t get the contract they want and sign a cheaper 1yr deal with the Leafs in hopes to pop up their stats and score a big contract the following season

I think that already exists.

 

[Rielly4]

Pretty much. Good chance Bertuzzi hits 40 goals this season, and that will price him out of Toronto.

40 goals without top PP time? Highly doubt it. 30 even seems like a bit much. Id guess 25-28 range.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think that already exists.

But who though?

Bunting might had taken less but I doubt anyone would had paid him 3mil two yrs ago.
Schenn will get his contract even if he didn’t play on the Leafs for a few months.
Holl was homegrown from the Leafs and so were Hyman, and Brown.

 

[Budz]

I would look to trade WN to a Western Conference playoff contender at the Trade Deadline for a futures package.

You then flip that package and cap savings for the best dman you can get.

He’s not worth much more than 9. They need a shake up anyway imo.

 

[tmlms13]

Yeah, not easy to find examples of someone with elite regular season and not very good playoffs track record. Maybe Huberdeau, but he had no issues getting paid last year. Matthew Tkachuk was also a playoff underachiever until this year, I suppose he didn't quite make as much as he could have, but the situation was fairly atypical with a sign and trade and maneuvering out of Calgary. Gaudreau sucks in the playoffs, but he's also had up and down seasons and his Columbus signing was out of left field.

Might not be elite regular seasons but pretty good and definitely not very good playoff track record lol.

Jeff Skinner

 

[Squiffy]

But who though?

Bunting might had taken less but I doubt anyone would had paid him 3mil two yrs ago.
Schenn will get his contract even if he didn’t play on the Leafs for a few months.
Holl was homegrown from the Leafs and so were Hyman, and Brown.

Boy, I think right there. Every one of those examples gets an inflated next contract coming off playing with a real good, high profile, granted playoff underperforming, Leafs team. Maybe you exclude Hyman, but Christ, he just goes to another position in Edm. They’re support players, totally average not surrounded by high end talent. Replaceable.

I wouldn’t pay a single one of them short of Z what they got moving on. Would have loved to have kept most of them, but my reaction to all of them was good luck to you, wouldn’t want to match much less top that price.

We’ve been spraying overpriced UFA’s for years here across the league. Engvall for 7? Campbell? Mikheyav? I liked Mikaheyev, but $5m?

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I wouldn't be expecting Nylander to be signing long term either.

SIMMONS: 5 more years of Auston Matthews buys 5 years of Maple Leafs hope

The mystery is over. Auston Matthews will be a Leaf for the next five seasons. And the terms were reasonable.

torontosun.com

"Treliving had no interest in going extra-long term with Matthews. He’ll tell you — as he’s told me in the past — he hates eight-year deals."

According to the article, Matthews wanted three years. The Leafs were pushing for five or six. They met halfway at four.

Looking at his record in Calgary, it looks like Treliving prefers to re-sign his free agents to six year deals.

On the one hand, it minimizes the chances of getting stuck with a bad contract. On the other hand, it eliminates the opportunity for windfall gains. The team is going to be caught in a vicious cycle of setting the league standard for free agents every few years.

Does any other NHL team operate like this?

Do any other players operate like this? I can understand the need for the team to be progressive. But why does it always seem to come at the chances of them winning a Stanley Cup?

And why does it always have to be the Leafs leading the charge?

 

[Arzak]

So just thinking about Nylander at 7 or 8 years in the $9 million-$11 million range...

Leafs offers

8 years at $9.0 million = $72 million
8 years at $9.25 million = $74 million
8 years at $9.50 million = $76 million
8 years at $9.75 million = $78 million
8 years at $10 million = $80 million

vs other teams

7 years at $10 million = $70 million
7 years at $10.25 million = $71.25 million
7 years at $10.50 million = $73.50 million
7 years at $10.75 million = $75.25 million
7 years at $11.00 million = $77 million

If Nylander isn't thinking like Matthews and is going max. term, high AAV like a conventional NHL star, the full 8 years Toronto can offer are more competitive dollar packages than what he would get once he hits UFA.

He could receive the 7 year, $11 million Tavares deal from another team, but that would only be $5 million more in actual dollars than Toronto at $9 million over 8 years on the far lower end of the AAV spectrum. Of course there's the opportunity cost factored into the extra year with Toronto, but who knows how much he's worth in his mid 30s.

I remain hopeful something sensible can get done.

Your calculations only work if Nylander stops playing after year 7. Otherwise, you need to asume he'll make money 8th year.

From the next deal point of view/maximazing earning potential, it might be beneficial for him to sign a shorter deal.

The comparison you're making is utterly stupid.

But hey. let's assume your "calculations" are correct and he would not earn a cent in year 8. Does it mean you expect to have 11M in dead cap space by year 8 ?

The thought process of comparing 8 and 7-year deals from an overall earnings standpoint is just so moronic I can't grasp what the hell are you trying to tell.


What happens year 8 ? Nylander with us or not

edit: It would only be $5M plus another 5 he could get on another deal.So only losing $10M for the Leafs privilege? Now I see it. Everyone else maxed out, +- 10M for Nylander is no biggie, he can leave it on the table.

 

[Notsince67]

My predicton. Nylander 40+ goals 100 pts this season. Forget the 10- 10.5 request now. It becomes even higher next year.

Ofcourse Marner going to have a huge year too…

I'm all for both of them having killer years. Sort out everything else later. Just bring me back some hockey

Nobody hates WN.
Reality is without JT Willie would get 9 or 10 gir 5 years easy. But we have JT and therefore unless JT announces his retirement effective end of this up coming season we cannot keep Willie.
So only 4 choices, trade him NOW, play him all season and trade him by trade deadline, lose him without compensation at end if year, or sign him now for 4 years at 9.5 or 10 without giving him a no trade clause and trade him when ever.
We cannot get rid of the other 3, so Willie has to go.

If willy has 100+ point season, you wouldn't go past 10?

 

[Niagara Bill]

Why isn't one of the options "sign him, and play him"? I would have thought that this off-season yet again demonstrated that the salary cap isn't preventing a team from getting better while also keeping its best players.

See last option

I'm all for both of them having killer years. Sort out everything else later. Just bring me back some hockey


If willy has 100+ point season, you wouldn't go past 10?

You have to sign him now before that happen. If you cannot afford him now, you can't latèr

 

[Notsince67]

See last option


You have to sign him now before that happen. If you cannot afford him now, you can't latèr

My point is that people are so stuck on their valuations. Let me rephrase....at what point total would you sign Nylander at over 10mm? 110? 120?.