Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

What is your limit for a "Cap %" for Nylander


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notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Not sure but I believe nobody has scored more points for us over the last 3 playoffs so that's more than a "few flashes". M&M play together, get paid a ton more, they also didn't get taken off PP1 the way Nylander did so how they couldn't outscore Willie is beyond me. Yes he's nowhere near as good defensively as M&M but still, IMO he's given us better bang for the buck then those guys.
Most goals, tied for second in points. Most ES points, tied for most ES goals. Most PP goals, third in PP points. Tied for most GWG.

4 1/2 minutes less ice time per game than Matty. 5 1/2 minutes less ice time per game than Mitch.
 

notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
11,584
9,644
It sure sounds like Leafs and Willie are too far apart to get a deal done. Start shopping him hard.

P.S. You are not winning any cups with 4 proven playoff losers making 8 figures and chewing up half the cap.
Correct. But let's not throw away our best playoff performer while waiting for Tavares to disappear. And while he may be close, he likely won't get $10M.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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Most goals, tied for second in points. Most ES points, tied for most ES goals. Most PP goals, third in PP points. Tied for most GWG.

4 1/2 minutes less ice time per game than Matty. 5 1/2 minutes less ice time per game than Mitch.
Impressive. To be fair, we could mention that defensively he's not nearly as good as M&M but on the other side of the coin, it's also important to note that his cap hit has also been far below those guys.

Any way you slice it, he's more than earned his pay in the playoffs and had M&M done the same, we may well have won a cup by now.
 

BraveCanadian

Registered User
Jun 30, 2010
15,400
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P/GP Last three seasons regular, playoffs, difference:
Marner 1.27 1.04 -.23
Matthews 1.29 1.00 -.29
Nylander 0.98 1.00 +.02
Tavares 0.96 0.74 -.22

The difference becomes even more apparent if you focus on just the later games.

Now do defense..
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
49,529
12,118
This. A thousand time this! So tired of hearing that playoff performance doesn't matter when negotiating contracts.
I've been trying to think of a player who lost cash because of their playoff stats, but i can't come up with any names. Anyone come to mind for you?
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
31,203
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I've been trying to think of a player who lost cash because of their playoff stats, but i can't come up with any names. Anyone come to mind for you?
Not that familiar with contracts around the league but my guess is that it's true, playoff performance doesn't have that much of an impact on contracts. I'm just saying that if I'm the GM, playoff performance is definitely something I'm considering and if I have players who make a habit of underachieving in the playoffs, trading them probably makes more sense than locking them up for top dollar. If playoff performance has no impact on cap hit, why not stack the roster with players who play to their potential in the playoffs?
 
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Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
49,529
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Not that familiar with contracts around the league but my guess is that it's true, playoff performance doesn't have that much of an impact on contracts. I'm just saying that if I'm the GM, playoff performance is definitely something I'm considering and if I have players who make a habit of underachieving in the playoffs, trading them probably makes more sense than locking them up for top dollar. If playoff performance has no impact on cap hit, why not stack the roster with players who play to their potential in the playoffs?
Predictability is the biggest issue with "playing to potential in playoffs" and it becomes tough to predict and differentiate.

There does seem to be a premium for team success in playoffs, after the fact of course.

But this playoff was a perfect example of unpredictability. Florida makes a miracle run on the back of a goalie they didnt trust to start (Bob) and a guy who underachieved in his only 3 playoff appearances coming into the year (Tkachuk)

Vegas wins the cup on Eichels first PO appearance, after they choked away a playoff spot down the stretch last year. The Conn Smythe winner scores as many goals this year as the prior 3 runs combined which was close to double the games.

None of that is to excuse some of the poor play we've seen, but to highlight there is no safe bet in these scenarios, which is why you dont see players losing money on playoffs. The belief of repeatability is also what can lead you to signing a guy like Dave Bolland.

You could also argue Matthews has been our best player in a lot of series. TB both years, above a PPG v. CLB and the only plus fwd (+/- is a stupid stat), 5 goals vs. Bos2 (he sucked in Bos1)
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
31,203
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Predictability is the biggest issue with "playing to potential in playoffs" and it becomes tough to predict and differentiate.

There does seem to be a premium for team success in playoffs, after the fact of course.

But this playoff was a perfect example of unpredictability. Florida makes a miracle run on the back of a goalie they didnt trust to start (Bob) and a guy who underachieved in his only 3 playoff appearances coming into the year (Tkachuk)

Vegas wins the cup on Eichels first PO appearance, after they choked away a playoff spot down the stretch last year. The Conn Smythe winner scores as many goals this year as the prior 3 runs combined which was close to double the games.

None of that is to excuse some of the poor play we've seen, but to highlight there is no safe bet in these scenarios, which is why you dont see players losing money on playoffs. The belief of repeatability is also what can lead you to signing a guy like Dave Bolland.

You could also argue Matthews has been our best player in a lot of series. TB both years, above a PPG v. CLB and the only plus fwd (+/- is a stupid stat), 5 goals vs. Bos2 (he sucked in Bos1)
Yeah true, and playoff being a shorter season makes it more unpredictable by nature anyway. That said, we've failed as a team so many times now and especially when I think about some of our abysmal performances in game 7's (were we outscored 11-2 in one 4 year stretch?), it's pretty hard to write it off as just variance and makes me think there's something wrong with this team at it's core. These playoff failures are of course a team "achievement", not an individual one and while Matthews is "the man" therefore gets a good chunk of the blame, I'm not on his case as much as some other people and IMHO his playoff performances overall have only been a little bit disappointing. Marner is the one who really fades away the higher the stakes are - his overall numbers aren't THAT bad but what they don't show is that he tends to put up points early but in game 7's, he's nowhere to be found. And as you may be tired of hearing about, he was so bad in game 3 against Florida. Yes that was just one game but IMHO there's simply no excuse for any veteran player playing so badly and looking so scared in any playoff game ever and especially not Marner who's supposed to be one of the best players in the world.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
49,529
12,118
Yeah true, and playoff being a shorter season makes it more unpredictable by nature anyway. That said, we've failed as a team so many times now and especially when I think about some of our abysmal performances in game 7's (were we outscored 11-2 in one 4 year stretch?), it's pretty hard to write it off as just variance and makes me think there's something wrong with this team at it's core. These playoff failures are of course a team "achievement", not an individual one and while Matthews is "the man" therefore gets a good chunk of the blame, I'm not on his case as much as some other people and IMHO his playoff performances overall have only been a little bit disappointing. Marner is the one who really fades away the higher the stakes are - his overall numbers aren't THAT bad but what they don't show is that he tends to put up points early but in game 7's, he's nowhere to be found. And as you may be tired of hearing about, he was so bad in game 3 against Florida. Yes that was just one game but IMHO there's simply no excuse for any veteran player playing so badly and looking so scared in any playoff game ever and especially not Marner who's supposed to be one of the best players in the world.
I dont disagree with this and I think changing the pieces or makeup is fine, it just comes with risk.

But circling back to the original point of the team's playoff failure lowering their ask, it doesnt seem to hold true anywhere in the NHL.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
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I dont disagree with this and I think changing the pieces or makeup is fine, it just comes with risk.

But circling back to the original point of the team's playoff failure lowering their ask, it doesnt seem to hold true anywhere in the NHL.
And I can only repeat what I said earlie - If playoff performance has no impact on cap hit, why not stack the roster with players who play to their potential in the playoffs?
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
49,529
12,118
And I can only repeat what I said earlie - If playoff performance has no impact on cap hit, why not stack the roster with players who play to their potential in the playoffs?
Outside of say McDavid, do we know who that is?
 

TMLAM34

Registered User
Oct 15, 2020
5,357
6,401
With Matthews signing for 13.25, I think there’s no way Nylander signs for less than 9.5 or maybe even 10.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
81,622
59,424
I dont disagree with this and I think changing the pieces or makeup is fine, it just comes with risk.

But circling back to the original point of the team's playoff failure lowering their ask, it doesnt seem to hold true anywhere in the NHL.

We definitely would have a hard time establishing the anti-Ville Leino or anti-Valeri Nichushkin whose salary demands collapsed after terrible players, but I think it would just be baked into whatever salary that got on their contracts.

Like for example, Taylor Hall received a series of fairly disappointing contracts after his big Hart breakout, but you'd have a hard time distinguishing between whether poor regular season performances cost him or just a career's worth of not really being a playoff performer lowered his status as a player generally.
 

Shooter14

57 years now and still hoping.
Feb 5, 2018
422
475
With Matthews signing for 13.25, I think there’s no way Nylander signs for less than 9.5 or maybe even 10.
Matthews received a 14% increase and Nylander at 10 million will receive a 42% increase? I'm sure Leaf Management has sent a message coming in at 8.5 million a 20% increase at best.
 

Evilhomer

Registered User
Oct 10, 2019
5,272
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Willy has all the time in the world. Pay me 10 or someone else starved for a high quality player will. That’s UFA.
Is another team going to give him $11 million? If all he wants is money, he would get the most on an 8 year deal from Toronto. He and his agent know that. I am sure that he will end up signing for something less than $9.5 million with Toronto, and all the people that hate him will continue to hate him, and all the people that love him will continue to love him. Then, when Toronto wins, everyone will love all of them.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
81,622
59,424
Is another team going to give him $11 million? If all he wants is money, he would get the most on an 8 year deal from Toronto. He and his agent know that. I am sure that he will end up signing for something less than $9.5 million with Toronto, and all the people that hate him will continue to hate him, and all the people that love him will continue to love him. Then, when Toronto wins, everyone will love all of them.

I think if Nylander came in at $9.25 to $9.5 million on an 8 year deal, you just bite the bullet and prolong your time with the asset. Re-assess down the road.
 
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TMLAM34

Registered User
Oct 15, 2020
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Matthews received a 14% increase and Nylander at 10 million will receive a 42% increase? I'm sure Leaf Management has sent a message coming in at 8.5 million a 20% increase at best.
That message will see Nylander walk for nothing if he’s not traded.
 

Evilhomer

Registered User
Oct 10, 2019
5,272
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I think if Nylander came in at $9.25 to $9.5 million on an 8 year deal, you just bite the bullet and prolong your time with the asset. Re-assess down the road.
I think that is exactly what management will end up doing. I think Treliving has his marching orders, and I think a signed Nylander is part of those orders.
 

Niagara Bill

Registered User
Oct 11, 2021
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Is another team going to give him $11 million? If all he wants is money, he would get the most on an 8 year deal from Toronto. He and his agent know that. I am sure that he will end up signing for something less than $9.5 million with Toronto, and all the people that hate him will continue to hate him, and all the people that love him will continue to love him. Then, when Toronto wins, everyone will love all of them.
Nobody hates WN.
Reality is without JT Willie would get 9 or 10 gir 5 years easy. But we have JT and therefore unless JT announces his retirement effective end of this up coming season we cannot keep Willie.
So only 4 choices, trade him NOW, play him all season and trade him by trade deadline, lose him without compensation at end if year, or sign him now for 4 years at 9.5 or 10 without giving him a no trade clause and trade him when ever.
We cannot get rid of the other 3, so Willie has to go.
 
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Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
18,175
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DO we need WIllie on the team to make the playoffs?

IF he price himself out, then good for him for playing at that level. And this applies to AM, MM or anyone.

Like we all think Willie is on a good to great contract bc of what he brings at 7mil. Lets say he manage to be a PPG 40G/50A player the rest of his prime and produce the same rate as he has been in the playoffs. Is 9mil really a bargain for a player who score 40G/50A a season?
Same with AM, is 13.25mil is a good deal for someone who score 60G/50A a season?

We can argue that nobody scores 60goals...but would you have AM at 13.25mil and score 60G and then a 12th forward at 750k scoring 5G or two forwards who score a combine of 65G at the same salary, which is 14mil?

I would say that it is always easier for players making less to outperform their contracts than players making more. Like Mack. I think he is probably the second or third best players in the league but at 12.6mil, it is hard for him to outperform that contract.

Personally, I think Willie will resign with the Leafs as only 24-25 is a cap crunch season.

At the end of the day, can our core win the Cup.
 
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