Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[Oscar Peterson]

Zero reason for Nylander to take less than 10M

I'd hold out on signing a new deal in his situation now. Go and put 80 pt - 90 pts and put pressure on Treliving to extend him.

Matthews gave zero discount (took us to the cleaners)

Nylander has zero reason to do a fair or discounted deal now

You’re not wrong but with all the heat he took from the media and fan base with how his last contract negotiation went, he has a real opportunity to gain back a lot of good will if he signs a more team friendly deal this time around. Now I’m not saying that will happen, but I can dream

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Staring contests always result with tears in the eyes.

Now that Matthews is signed Nylander better be ready to go. If he's not willing to blink Treliving needs to make the first move. Find out what the best return is on a certain greedy winger.

Let some other team pay Nylander eight figures a year to be a complementary player.

Half the fan base wants this guy gone anyway. The only ones who might want him to stick around probably bought his jersey. Otherwise Nylander may find himself all alone in the crying if he's traded.

He can use all that money from his new contract to dry the tears away.

 

[Gabriel426]

If Willie is really sticking with 10mil. Better ship him off to Vancouver for Petey, as he is still unsign and won't commit unless the team is winning.

 

[93LEAFS]

I never thought negoiations with Nylander would get serious until they knew Matthews number. We will see where it goes from here.

 

[ZEBROA]

With Matthews signed, Marner or Nylander seems to be popping up. While playoff performance seemingly being the deciding factor here (and a little unfair to Nylander as 2x 1st team all-star and Selke candidate Marner is easily a tier above for the regular season), lets check out the numbers:

Marner vs. Nylander the last 3 years in the playoffs with REL:

5v5:

Shot differential:
Marner: 55.06 (+6.55)
Nylander: 49.04 (-1.30)

High Danger Chance Differential:
Marner: 60.04 (+13.36)
Nylander: 50.80 (-0.18)

Expected Goal differential:
Marner: 59.29 (+10.65)
Nylander: 51.74 (-0.52)

Goal differential:
Marner: 65.98 (+23.46) - this leads all NHL forwards who have played at least 400 minutes
Nylander: 43.50 (-9.96)


5v5, its a complete mismatch. Marner destroys Nylander in every category and ranks as one of the better wingers in the NHL in the playoffs 5v5 the last 3 seasons.

Seeing as Marner is a great Pker who logs solid minutes on the PK, does Nylander have the production numbers to even stand a chance?

PP Production the last 3 years:
Marner: 1 goals, 8 assists for 9 points
Nylander: 4 goals, 3 assists for 7 points

All strengths production:
Marner: 5 goals, 21 assists for 26 points in 25 games
Nylander: 12 goals, 13 assists for 25 points in 25 games

Both players are PPG with Nylander being the better goal scorer but is that really enough to justify taking him over Marner? While Marner's production dipped from his regular season numbers, his defensive numbers made up for that in the overall picture. Nylander has scored some big goals but his passiveness and lack of defensive awareness has cost the team too. If he wants to get the big bucks, he needs a better 2 way game. Before anyone blames Tavares, here are the splits the last 3 years in the playoffs:

Tavares with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 52.27
GF%: 46.15

Matthews with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 54.04
GF%: 0.00

If almost 60 minutes playing with Matthews 5v5, they havnt been on the ice for a goal scored. Thats awful when you are not a good defensive player.

Both players have been valuable but Marner is the stronger asset when taking cap hit into the equation, even at their current numbers.

I'ts not stretch to say that Nylander's rep as a playoff guy is a tad overrated and Marner gets a bad rap.

If Nylander asks for a penny more than 8 mil, a trade would be the smart option IMO. Marner is good at practically everything and Nylander is a sub standard defensive player who doesn't PK. A great scoring winger. He should be paid like one.

If Nylander get a 8mill contract i would take him every time. Marner will probably get a 13-14 mill contract. He aint 5-6 mill better then Nylander.
But i vote for keeping both Marner and Nylander. Matthews is the one with something to prove right now with that new contract. Must be better this year.

Nylander should have his own line without Tavares or Matthews. That is when he play his best. Marner being a playmaker most of all, can play great with both Matthews and Tavares. The problem all along has been that Nylander need a fast puckhound and at least one defensive minded fast player. Tavares and whatever on the left aint that. And Matthews need the puck to much. It is time to free Willy from Tavares and get him best support so succede. Been far to long time wasting his talent. And wasting talent is not the best way to get everything out of the team.

Maby if the new lefty on Matthews line find better chemestry with Nylander, that could work too. Marner can play with two cones and still be productive.

 

[centipede2233]

If Willie is really sticking with 10mil. Better ship him off to Vancouver for Petey, as he is still unsign and won't commit unless the team is winning.

The Canucks would laugh in your face

 

[Mentat]

Now that Auston set the trend again, Willy is gonna ask for 10M+ AAV and he´s gonna get it. Because the Leafs, for some reason hard to fathom, just love to bend over for certain players.
And, if those numbers are even mildly correct, it will be a(nother) HUGE overpayment.

In a couple of years, when this team continues to have jackshit to show for all the huge contracts signed, some people will still wonder why. Some people will still make excuses for the players that get the bag and give us very little in return.

 

[al secord]

My negotiations with hfboards just started. I'm asking for 100,000 more likes.

Good luck. Especially with the way you disappear in the playoffs.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

My negotiations with hfboards just started. I'm asking for 100,000 more likes.

HFBOARDS is offering 50K likes

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Zero reason for Nylander to take less than 10M

I'd hold out on signing a new deal in his situation now. Go and put 80 pt - 90 pts and put pressure on Treliving to extend him.

Matthews gave zero discount (took us to the cleaners)

Nylander has zero reason to do a fair or discounted deal now

Make no mistake about it he 100% would have gotten between 14-15 million in free agency, Matthews absolutely gave a discount

 

[Dayjobdave]

I don’t know if he was set to go to Pittsburgh but he probably knew there was a high percentage chance he wouldn’t be back whether he left or they fired him.

Based on the way he played his cards it seems like he felt there was a personal advantage to himself if he waited on their contracts to negotiate his own.

He played it like not giving in put the Leafs at risk of losing core players.

 

[ULF_55]

With Matthews signed, Marner or Nylander seems to be popping up. While playoff performance seemingly being the deciding factor here (and a little unfair to Nylander as 2x 1st team all-star and Selke candidate Marner is easily a tier above for the regular season), lets check out the numbers:

Marner vs. Nylander the last 3 years in the playoffs with REL:

5v5:

Shot differential:
Marner: 55.06 (+6.55)
Nylander: 49.04 (-1.30)

High Danger Chance Differential:
Marner: 60.04 (+13.36)
Nylander: 50.80 (-0.18)

Expected Goal differential:
Marner: 59.29 (+10.65)
Nylander: 51.74 (-0.52)

Goal differential:
Marner: 65.98 (+23.46) - this leads all NHL forwards who have played at least 400 minutes
Nylander: 43.50 (-9.96)


5v5, its a complete mismatch. Marner destroys Nylander in every category and ranks as one of the better wingers in the NHL in the playoffs 5v5 the last 3 seasons.

Seeing as Marner is a great Pker who logs solid minutes on the PK, does Nylander have the production numbers to even stand a chance?

PP Production the last 3 years:
Marner: 1 goals, 8 assists for 9 points
Nylander: 4 goals, 3 assists for 7 points

All strengths production:
Marner: 5 goals, 21 assists for 26 points in 25 games
Nylander: 12 goals, 13 assists for 25 points in 25 games

Both players are PPG with Nylander being the better goal scorer but is that really enough to justify taking him over Marner? While Marner's production dipped from his regular season numbers, his defensive numbers made up for that in the overall picture. Nylander has scored some big goals but his passiveness and lack of defensive awareness has cost the team too. If he wants to get the big bucks, he needs a better 2 way game. Before anyone blames Tavares, here are the splits the last 3 years in the playoffs:

Tavares with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 52.27
GF%: 46.15

Matthews with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 54.04
GF%: 0.00

If almost 60 minutes playing with Matthews 5v5, they havnt been on the ice for a goal scored. Thats awful when you are not a good defensive player.

Both players have been valuable but Marner is the stronger asset when taking cap hit into the equation, even at their current numbers.

I'ts not stretch to say that Nylander's rep as a playoff guy is a tad overrated and Marner gets a bad rap.

If Nylander asks for a penny more than 8 mil, a trade would be the smart option IMO. Marner is good at practically everything and Nylander is a sub standard defensive player who doesn't PK. A great scoring winger. He should be paid like one.

Thanks.

Do you have linemates by TOI/g PP and ES in playoffs?

I do think the touch pass by Tavares at center ice where Nylander then carried into the zone and owned the Panthers was a nice assist.

 

[mclaren55]

I'm assuming this (Matthews contract) means Nylander signs for 5x9.75?

 

[ULF_55]

You’re not wrong but with all the heat he took from the media and fan base with how his last contract negotiation went, he has a real opportunity to gain back a lot of good will if he signs a more team friendly deal this time around. Now I’m not saying that will happen, but I can dream

Not a chance he gains back any good will.

If he takes less than Meier's % against the projected Cap ~9.3 + Leafs%bonus he's giving a friendly deal. So anything less than 9.5 is Team Friendly deal.

However, why should he?

I'm more curious his term.

8*
6*NMC
2*NTC

 

[ULF_55]

I'm really skeptical about your stats. "In almost 60 minutes playing with Matthews 5v5, they haven't been on the ice for a goal scored"?

On April 20, Nylander scored 5v5 with Matthews assisting. On April 24, Matthews scored 5v5 with Nylander assisting. At least according to NHL.com.

And that's just the first two games I checked.

Stats could be correct if it is not actual, but expected results.

This is the issue I do have with "advanced stats" proponents they care little about actual results. This is especially true if the Leafs lose, but have good "advanced stats."

Same with finding negatives to support your position.

 

[hamzarocks]

Make no mistake about it he 100% would have gotten between 14-15 million in free agency, Matthews absolutely gave a discount

This just means every player gives a discount

Mackinnon would have gotten 14-15M in free agency but he signed for 12.6 on 8

Pastranak would have gotten 13M as a UFA but took 11.6 i think on 8

Matthews discount doesmt ever help us out. We pay more than comparables and get half the term

 

[DarkKnight]

Make no mistake about it he 100% would have gotten between 14-15 million in free agency, Matthews absolutely gave a discount

Oh please, he signed for more than a Stanley Cup champ MacKinnon, for half the term. He took every dime he could from the Leafs, despite shameful big game no shows. Matthews got paid, you can spin anything.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

HFBOARDS is offering 50K likes

His expectedlikes/60 is pretty good and the like cap is going up in the next few years.

75K or no deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

LOL at the poster who would trade Nylander if he wanted more than 8m.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

No way he asks for less then 10m now.

No wonder he wants to remain a Leaf. He can ask for more due to the team salary structure. Can’t blame him for that.
As of today he’s not getting 10m on another team. Probably closer to 9.

 

[kevsh]

If he's not willing to blink Treliving needs to make the first move.

I agree with this but I'm convinced (on circumstantial evidence solely) that Brad's orders are to sign him, period. If it means MLSE caves and Nylander gets everything he wants, then that'll be the way they'll go.

But what I am absolutely convinced will not happen is the Leafs trade him. Even if negotiations drag into the regular season and his ask is ridiculous (and non-flexible), full NMC, you name it. In the end, they'll pay him whatever it takes to keep him from walking next summer.

 

[Avilaj07]

Resigning Matthews was a chance for Treliving to get these contracts back to respectable numbers. Resigning Matthews at 4yrs/13.25 is a brutal contract and just complicates even more the resigning of both Nylander and Marner who now have all the leverage. If I'm treliving then I'm signing both Nylander and Marner to contracts that align with the same expiry as Matthews. They'll all be in their early 30's and then you can reassess the team and have about 40 million

 

[Gary Nylund]

Oh please, he signed for more than a Stanley Cup champ MacKinnon, for half the term. He took every dime he could from the Leafs, despite shameful big game no shows. Matthews got paid, you can spin anything.

Good summary, well said. +1

 

[Da Cool Rula]

I just don’t how they can keep him. The mess that was originally made with their earlier contracts…..

it’s time to move him.

 

[Notsince67]

Now you make me very conscious about my likes to posts ratio, lol

I wish there was an unlike button. I could express my dislike to some stuff posted while relishing in the recognition of the fragile triggered crowd.