Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

What is your limit for a "Cap %" for Nylander


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This month's version of Willy is honestly better than Marner offensively. Let's see if this version can last a whole season though, a cold streak will hit eventually.
Fixed. Its a great start, like Larkin and Debrincat, but a dinky sample. He had 12 points in 8 games in December last year and a 12 in 7 stretch the year before and he did that with less ice time. Marner had 19pts in a 9 game stretch last season and 19 in 7 the year before. These are just streaks until they sew a bunch of them together. No dis to Willie because it is still a 120 point pace but people need to relax the "pay him whatever he asks" talk. After all 200pt Hughes is only making $8M per :)
 
MM seems to be quiet as the series get deeper while Willie seems to pick up his game as the series get longer. Also, MM tends to have one or two great games in a series and then just completely disappeared while Willie will have bad games then good games.
Willie is a better scorer in the playoffs just like he is in the regular season.
Both are great players and both need to play great in order for the Leafs to have any chances in the playoffs.
Agreed. I'll admit, I was shocked when I went to look up how many points Marner had last playoff and saw 14. My memories of him in the playoffs don't really stand out much. Game 2 against Tampa he broke the ice and ended up getting 2 goals that game. Huge, especially after where it looked like things were going after Game 1. Game 4 against Florida, scored the winning goal. Again. huge.

But toe to toe, the memories of Nylander from last playoffs in critical moments seem to stand out more, but that could easily just be my perception of it all.
 
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Last 5 years playoffs - I won't be insulted if anyone finds errors ... minimum 25 games played.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Total Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength PPG[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.595​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.516​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.514​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.300​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.120​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
One thing I like about this, and I'm not sure if it was intentional or not. The last 5 playoffs happen to be the playoffs in which Nylander was on this current contract, as opposed to being on his ELC. For Marner that would include one playoff on his ELC and 4 on his current contract.

If we are going by just even strength points, maybe 5 points are negligible. But when one is making nearly $4 Million more than the other, it opens up the conversation, as we are currently in a thread about a contract.

Marner's best playoff was in 2017-2018 against the Bruins and my oh my it was a hell of a playoff, even if it was only one round. It had had us questioning if he was truly the franchise player rather than Matthews, who had his worst playoff that year. Since then, I find you can absolutely argue Nylander has been the better of the two in the playoffs.

I have to wonder if back then, there was just way less pressure for him. It was still very early in the window, before the team was expected to really push for the cup. Marner was also insulated by veterans such as Bozak, JVR and Marleau who were expected to help contribute. Flash forward years later, the pressure has amped up due to constant playoff failure and the fact that he needs to essentially be the straw that stirs the drink for the team.
 
One thing I like about this, and I'm not sure if it was intentional or not. The last 5 playoffs happen to be the playoffs in which Nylander was on this current contract, as opposed to being on his ELC. For Marner that would include one playoff on his ELC and 4 on his current contract.

If we are going by just even strength points, maybe 5 points are negligible. But when one is making nearly $4 Million more than the other, it opens up the conversation, as we are currently in a thread about a contract.

Marner's best playoff was in 2017-2018 against the Bruins and my oh my it was a hell of a playoff, even if it was only one round. It had had us questioning if he was truly the franchise player rather than Matthews, who had his worst playoff that year. Since then, I find you can absolutely argue Nylander has been the better of the two in the playoffs.

I have to wonder if back then, there was just way less pressure for him. It was still very early in the window, before the team was expected to really push for the cup. Marner was also insulated by veterans such as Bozak, JVR and Marleau who were expected to help contribute. Flash forward years later, the pressure has amped up due to constant playoff failure and the fact that he needs to essentially be the straw that stirs the drink for the team.

Unintentional.

Figured the most recent years made the most sense.

You don't give out contracts based on what a player did 6 years ago.
 
One thing I like about this, and I'm not sure if it was intentional or not. The last 5 playoffs happen to be the playoffs in which Nylander was on this current contract, as opposed to being on his ELC. For Marner that would include one playoff on his ELC and 4 on his current contract.

If we are going by just even strength points, maybe 5 points are negligible. But when one is making nearly $4 Million more than the other, it opens up the conversation, as we are currently in a thread about a contract.

Marner's best playoff was in 2017-2018 against the Bruins and my oh my it was a hell of a playoff, even if it was only one round. It had had us questioning if he was truly the franchise player rather than Matthews, who had his worst playoff that year. Since then, I find you can absolutely argue Nylander has been the better of the two in the playoffs.

I have to wonder if back then, there was just way less pressure for him. It was still very early in the window, before the team was expected to really push for the cup. Marner was also insulated by veterans such as Bozak, JVR and Marleau who were expected to help contribute. Flash forward years later, the pressure has amped up due to constant playoff failure and the fact that he needs to essentially be the straw that stirs the drink for the team.

Unintentional.

Figured the most recent years made the most sense.

You don't give out contracts based on what a player did 6 years ago.

Realistically, what could you get back for Marner that would make you sleep okay at night? Jiricek+ from CBJ? Would they even want that deal? 1 year left, Marner may not waive and they don't have a history of successfully signing guys.

Mintyukov+ from Anaheim? Maybe Marner waives but I think they'd struggle with the new AAV.

No established top pairing defenseman are available that I am aware of...
 
Realistically, what could you get back for Marner that would make you sleep okay at night? Jiricek+ from CBJ? Would they even want that deal? 1 year left, Marner may not waive and they don't have a history of successfully signing guys.

Mintyukov+ from Anaheim? Maybe Marner waives but I think they'd struggle with the new AAV.

No established top pairing defenseman are available that I am aware of...

marner isn't going anywhere.

Hopefully, neither is Nylander.

I doubt you get a defender in the top of the league category for anyone other than Matthews.

If you could trade for a top young player with a Cap around $6mm and have $6mm left to pursue a top 3 defender ... yeah, consider it. With Nylander you'd get Cap relief around $4mm, with marner around $6mm. marner plays more, Nylander scores more.
 
Last 5 years playoffs - I won't be insulted if anyone finds errors ... minimum 25 games played.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Total Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength PPG[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.595​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.516​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.514​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.300​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.120​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I used the NHL.com stats machine and 25+game pp60 over the last 5 playoffs. Willies 59th amongst forwards and Matthews 62nd. Its better but neither is producing anywhere close to the better forwards on other playoff clubs. Max Domi is 24th, Timo Meier is 19th, and Brock Nelson is 13th and these aren't big stars and their clubs didn't go all the way. WN was less shitty than the other 3 top Leafs at ES but having 4 guys at a scorching 1.69 pp60 still doesn't get you past the first round.

The best ES Cap was Burakovsky, the Avalanche Kadri and the best Panther Verhaeghe. The stars aren't the key to a Cup its players who rise to that level when needed. I think the key to this is the coach and not another dangling forward.

Bertuzzi was 2.50 pp60 for the Bruins in the playoffs and 2.33 in the regular season and right now he is a team worst .51. He is a career 1.94 coming from a Blashill Wings team that only once managed 35 wins. What does Sheldon see now when he looks at him?

Sorry to drag things off topic but I think a small sample from a playoff club that fails every year doesn't really tell you what any of these guys could do with the right lineup tweaks and the right system.
 
Last 5 years playoffs - I won't be insulted if anyone finds errors ... minimum 25 games played.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Total Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength PPG[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.595​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.516​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.514​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.300​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.120​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Looks like Nylinder has been more productive than Marner to me. Why do you think he hasn't @Dekes For Days ?
 
marner isn't going anywhere.

Hopefully, neither is Nylander.

I doubt you get a defender in the top of the league category for anyone other than Matthews.

If you could trade for a top young player with a Cap around $6mm and have $6mm left to pursue a top 3 defender ... yeah, consider it. With Nylander you'd get Cap relief around $4mm, with marner around $6mm. marner plays more, Nylander scores more.

You may simply need to ride it out for 1 year on a tight cap with JT, once he expires, you can do some cool stuff.

Had some fun mocks in the trade rumors side thread.
 
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I used the NHL.com stats machine and 25+game pp60 over the last 5 playoffs. Willies 59th amongst forwards and Matthews 62nd. Its better but neither is producing anywhere close to the better forwards on other playoff clubs. Max Domi is 24th, Timo Meier is 19th, and Brock Nelson is 13th and these aren't big stars and their clubs didn't go all the way. WN was less shitty than the other 3 top Leafs at ES but having 4 guys at a scorching 1.69 pp60 still doesn't get you past the first round.

The best ES Cap was Burakovsky, the Avalanche Kadri and the best Panther Verhaeghe. The stars aren't the key to a Cup its players who rise to that level when needed. I think the key to this is the coach and not another dangling forward.

Bertuzzi was 2.50 pp60 for the Bruins in the playoffs and 2.33 in the regular season and right now he is a team worst .51. He is a career 1.94 coming from a Blashill Wings team that only once managed 35 wins. What does Sheldon see now when he looks at him?

Sorry to drag things off topic but I think a small sample from a playoff club that fails every year doesn't really tell you what any of these guys could do with the right lineup tweaks and the right system.

Their contracts really don't impact Leafs contracts.

Ideally, they should, but in reality they don't.
 
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This version of Willy is honestly better than Marner offensively. Let's see if this version can last a whole season though, a cold streak will hit eventually.
He’ll go hard all season.
Willy in a contract year was as safe a bet as there is.
 
It is not an either or situation with Willie and MM.
I don’t understand why you can only have one.
We talk about the defence….TJ and Kling combine for just under 10mil. Mayfield and Soucy were signed for under 7 mil combined a few months ago. If we have those two instead of TJ and McCabe, are defense will be miles better than now.

I can see that if McD or Makar or Mack is on the table then it makes sense for one of MM and Willie to be traded in order to get one of them. But since this is not the case, I just don’t see the either or between Willie and MM
 
This version of Willy is honestly better than Marner offensively. Let's see if this version can last a whole season though, a cold streak will hit eventually.

This version of Willy is better than Marner.

What makes you think Marner is better defensively this year?
 
In a vacuum I'd love to keep Willy, but if he is demanding too much money we have to put the emotions aside and start thinking about our options. A lesson we can learn from Boston is to trade star players who don't fit the long term plans.
 
Last 5 years playoffs - I won't be insulted if anyone finds errors ... minimum 25 games played.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Total Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength PPG[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.649​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.595​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.516​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.514​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.300​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]
0.120​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Any chance you could add the average min per game?

It's always per 60 on Tuesdays, unless we talking Mitch playing 30 min, in that case only the amount of assists he can pick up matters.


btw it's team scoring more goals that wins game.
Goals per 60 should be the first stat you look at when you are trying to win 16 games in a SC playoffs.
 
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He had more "POINTZ" in that one specific series but "better" is not that black and white.

I watched the series. Marner did not impress me, especially with his play later in the series. I get that points aren't everything, but a player had better have played one hell of a series (certainly much better than the one Marner played) for his performance to be considered better than that of a player who outscored him five goals to zero and had twice the points.

I like Marner. I have his name in my username. I'm simply calling a spade a spade. Based simply on probability, you can expect your second-best winger to outperform your best winger at least once in a sample-size of seven series. If you genuinely think Marner was on par or better against MTL, I think you're part of a very small minority.
 
I watched the series. Marner did not impress me, especially with his play later in the series. I get that points aren't everything, but a player had better have played one hell of a series (certainly much better than the one Marner played) for his performance to be considered better than that of a player who outscored him five goals to zero and had twice the points.
I watched the series too. I watched everything get thrown at the 1st line, and I watched that 1st line still dominate play. I watched Marner set up endless top tier scoring chances to two injured players that didn't end up in the back of the net. I watched them struggle to convert at times and generate half the goals of the Nylander line at 5v5, but still end up contributing a greater net positive to the team because they allowed 5 times fewer goals. I watched the Nylander line convert very well, but struggle to control the flow of play, and play loose, high event hockey against much weaker competition, in a way that got him a lot of points but resulted in a lot going back the other way.

Regardless, even if Nylander was better in that one specific series, it would still be one series, and that doesn't make him a more productive or better playoff performer overall.
Nylander has some memorable offensive moments over the years, but there's more to the better player than memorable offensive moments.
 
I watched the series too. I watched everything get thrown at the 1st line, and I watched that 1st line still dominate play. I watched Marner set up endless top tier scoring chances to two injured players that didn't end up in the back of the net. I watched them struggle to convert at times and generate half the goals of the Nylander line at 5v5, but still end up contributing a greater net positive to the team because they allowed 5 times fewer goals. I watched the Nylander line convert very well, but struggle to control the flow of play, and play loose, high event hockey against much weaker competition, in a way that got him a lot of points but resulted in a lot going back the other way.

Regardless, even if Nylander was better in that one specific series, it would still be one series, and that doesn't make him a more productive or better playoff performer overall.
Nylander has some memorable offensive moments over the years, but there's more to the better player than memorable offensive moments.

From what I remember, individually Marner played a rather soft perimeter game (the kind Nylander used to be criticized for) and was too easy to contain.

TBH, I'm probably being a bit harsh since I remember him being pretty much useless offensively in game seven when the score was tied or close and his turnover that led to Gallagher's (admittedly) weak opening goal in game seven particularly infuriated me.

I'm not disputing that his line was probably generally more effective than Nylander's at Even Strength, but there is also a big difference between playing with Matthews and Hyman and guys like Galchenyuk and Kerfoot. You play with AG and your line is probably going to give up quite a bit on the defensive side of things. I think MTL was likely primarily focused on shutting the top line down and wasn't trying too hard offensively when that line was on the ice.

I agree that it is just one series, though. I didn't think Nylander was very good against BOS in the 2019 playoffs (he seemed intimidated - that turnover from behind the net in game two looked especially bad), but he's been better in the playoffs since then. I wouldn't call him a better playoff player than Marner, but he's done a lot to change the perception of him as a playoff performer. Hopefully Marner will do the same.
 
If the 9m player gets 9m, and is the best winger on the team, what argument does Marner actually have?

Last time he said he was as good as Matthews, and got paid as such coming off a great season. This time he can't say that, he doesn't have rockets or a Hart, etc.

He's not the best winger on the team anymore when it counts.
When did Marner get the same contract?
 
Going through this thread, there sure is a lot of stupidity going around.
Not sure why some of the Willy fans need to knock Marner every year this time of the season but go to it. No awards are being handed out for dumb comments but one day, Willy might have a better season and you might not look as dumb as you have in the past. Some of us will enjoy success regardless of who brings it.
 
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This board speculating on trading Marner for prospects+ is wild.

The Leafs are in a win now situation, not win later. Trading Marner for a D prospect - even a high end blue chip one won't really yield results for at least a year if he's a rarity like a Makar and more likely 2-3 which is over half the time left on the Matthews contract.

If you trade Marner for a dman you must get back someone that can make an impact right away and in regularly in Norris discussions - not necessarily a finalist every year, like a McAvoy or Devon Toews. Unless you have reason to believe that guys like Jiricek are the next Makar.
 
This version of Willy is better than Marner.

What makes you think Marner is better defensively this year?
There is a lot of data that points to Nylanders poor defensive play. Summarized...if you look at a pretty clear metric of GAR, Willy defensively is a zero. That isnt great and if you factor out the luck, his defensive xgar is a -0.6.
He has been lucky to have zero defensive contribution.

Trying to compare him defensively to a Marner type player is a bit of a joke. He ain't that guy. He is purely offensive.
 
There is a lot of data that points to Nylanders poor defensive play. Summarized...if you look at a pretty clear metric of GAR, Willy defensively is a zero. That isnt great and if you factor out the luck, his defensive xgar is a -0.6.
He has been lucky to have zero defensive contribution.

Trying to compare him defensively to a Marner type player is a bit of a joke. He ain't that guy. He is purely offensive.
I think Willy has done a better job making some defensive plays this year but you are correct.

He is not anywhere close to Marner in his own end.

I will be happy if Willy can rwach 40 goals and somewhere between 85-95 points.
 
I think Willy has done a better job making some defensive plays this year but you are correct.

He is not anywhere close to Marner in his own end.

I will be happy if Willy can rwach 40 goals and somewhere between 85-95 points.


I'm not saying Willy is a superstar on D but we are 8 games into a season and Marner is dog shit on his own end, why are we calling him elite on D?


Overrated player living off his reputation.
 
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