Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[Evilhomer]

I think MM, WN and AM's increases will eat up all of the Tavares savings. And can they can rely on getting a legit #2 c for $5M or less? Do you spend money elsewhere on the assumption that's happening? Sami has to be re-signed or replaced and if Woll can actually play he will need a huge raise in 2 years. Even on the cheap side the goalies figure to cost more than this season and maybe a lot more if they don't see Samsonov or Woll as their #1 going forward.

The bolded do come off the books but they are collectively cheap for what they bring. Two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards for $17.5 is cheap. Boeser signed for $6.65 coming off 23 and 18g seasons. Scheifele got $8.5 x 7 and he is 51st in pp60 over the last 2 seasons among centers. That's the market out there if Bert or Domi show anything this year.

Rather than look at how the team can manage to squeeze Willie in if a bunch of things go right shouldn't we/they be looking at what the competition is spending to fill out the top of their roster? What Cup winners built like this? Willie is a fine talent but he isn't Messier or Clark or Trottier who bring something special to the table they don't have in AM and MM already.

I respect your opinion but it isn't like they were knocking on the door this last playoff. Resigning Willie is running it back.

"Running it back" is the correct approach because ultimately talent is what wins. Talent at the forward position is far more important, and impactful, than talent at the goaltender position. The cap increases, combined with Tavares' salary likely being cut in half, will give the Leafs plenty of room to resign everyone and replace Brodie/Klingberg with an elite defenseman. The salary cut will come at the goaltending position, which is the right place to reduce salary. Like Colorado did, the Leafs will let Samsonov go after they win the Cup this season and replace him either with Woll or a mid-tier UFA.

 

[crump]

Sign him, fill the roster with ELC and league minimum UFA’s next season and ride the 1 rough cap year. This is the Cup or bust year for expensive free agents. Next year instead of the Bertuzzi’s and Klingberg’s, players like Knies, Holmberg, Minten, Cowan, Niemelä , Timmins, Kokkenen, Woll / Hildeby can fill the spots. It might be nice to see what the young guys can do. (Some surprising Russian players in the system too)

Gio and probably Brodie will be gone. Maybe Kampf and Jarnkrok are cap casualties. Willy is too good to let go.

 

[Taylor Halls Teeth]

"Running it back" is the correct approach because ultimately talent is what wins. Talent at the forward position is far more important, and impactful, than talent at the goaltender position. The cap increases, combined with Tavares' salary likely being cut in half, will give the Leafs plenty of room to resign everyone and replace Brodie/Klingberg with an elite defenseman. The salary cut will come at the goaltending position, which is the right place to reduce salary. Like Colorado did, the Leafs will let Samsonov go after they win the Cup this season and replace him either with Woll or a mid-tier UFA.

Only twice in the last 15 years has the regular season champion won the Cup. Ultimately the team that wins is talented but its the right lineup and the right coach that is the final determiner, not who had the best regular season scorers. Otherwise the Oilers would be the 2023 champions. Maybe they are able to fill out a stronger lineup with the growing cap or maybe the growing cap just drives up the bidding on the available talent I .hope they build it too. Keep the faith.

 

[Evilhomer]

Only twice in the last 15 years has the regular season champion won the Cup. Ultimately the team that wins is talented but its the right lineup and the right coach that is the final determiner, not who had the best regular season scorers. Otherwise the Oilers would be the 2023 champions. Maybe they are able to fill out a stronger lineup with the growing cap or maybe the growing cap just drives up the bidding on the available talent I .hope they build it too. Keep the faith.

It's not about finishing first in the league so much as it is simply having the most talented players, because talent ultimately outweighs every other factor. Some teams have that talent on defense or goaltending rather than forward, but the vast majority of Cup winners have had the most talented forward group. Goaltending has largely been the least important piece of Cup-winning teams. Everyone talks about Vasi for Tampa's wins, but those teams excelled at defense and had 3 forwards who carried their entire lineup. If the Leafs have a missing piece it's that dominant defenseman, but I'm not sure anyone has noticed that no other team in the Eastern conference has that either.

 

[Menzinger]

I think MM, WN and AM's increases will eat up all of the Tavares savings. And can they can rely on getting a legit #2 c for $5M or less? Do you spend money elsewhere on the assumption that's happening? Sami has to be re-signed or replaced and if Woll can actually play he will need a huge raise in 2 years. Even on the cheap side the goalies figure to cost more than this season and maybe a lot more if they don't see Samsonov or Woll as their #1 going forward.

The bolded do come off the books but they are collectively cheap for what they bring. Two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards for $17.5 is cheap. Boeser signed for $6.65 coming off 23 and 18g seasons. Scheifele got $8.5 x 7 and he is 51st in pp60 over the last 2 seasons among centers. That's the market out there if Bert or Domi show anything this year.

Rather than look at how the team can manage to squeeze Willie in if a bunch of things go right shouldn't we/they be looking at what the competition is spending to fill out the top of their roster? What Cup winners built like this? Willie is a fine talent but he isn't Messier or Clark or Trottier who bring something special to the table they don't have in AM and MM already.

I respect your opinion but it isn't like they were knocking on the door this last playoff. Resigning Willie is running it back.

But exchanging Nylander for another player or a couple meh but cheaper 2nd tier players is hardly a guaranteed a path to a cup either. Imo change for the sake of change isn't going to necessarily make things better.

Marner, Nylander, Rielly and Matthews together keeps the team competitive every season, just need the right front office to build from that around the edges

 

[Notsince67]

I'm all for paying Nylander what he is worth. Not worth 10mm yet but a year hovering around 90 pts would probably be fair. He bet on himself and this is how it works.

 

[thewave]

I'm all for paying Nylander what he is worth. Not worth 10mm yet but a year hovering around 90 pts would probably be fair. He bet on himself and this is how it works.

He is already as good as Marner or better. Doesn't matter how you slice it. Marner cant get a zone or operate under any tight checking coverage. He also doesn't have the wheels that William has. Lastly Goal production. He doesn't have the shot.

Is what it is. Points wise they are right there together and WN does it from the second line that he props JT up on. Unless we are going to have a dishonest disagreement here that WN does not create the time and space that allows a slow JT to be effective in.

Nylander is very good and worth his 10m. If only Marner would dial the paychecks back we would be fine. ((Both Mm and WN at around the 10m mark is ideal))

Matthews is a clear cut level above and the true star on the team. Gave no discount but did not drag us into hostile negotiations. Nylander makes for a great 1 2 punch with AM and now with Reaves smashing some faces we are in a good place.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm all for paying Nylander what he is worth. Not worth 10mm yet but a year hovering around 90 pts would probably be fair. He bet on himself and this is how it works.

He's right around there and rising, IMO. His all around game is still a step below Marner and Matthews and his contract will reflect that, particularily once Marner re-ups next year and gets his slight raise.

 

[Nineteen67]

From what I’ve seen Nylander has been great.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He's right around there and rising, IMO. His all around game is still a step below Marner and Matthews and his contract will reflect that, particularily once Marner re-ups next year and gets his slight raise.

I know Huberdeau got 10.5M but Calgary cold weather tax and he actually had more points than either of Matthews and Marner.

Nylander's play definitely has me reconsidering the AAV - I probably move off the 8.8M to 9-9.25M now.

Key difference would be he's going to get all signing bonuses etc that some guys like Huberdeau and Meier never got.

 

[Notsince67]

He's right around there and rising, IMO. His all around game is still a step below Marner and Matthews and his contract will reflect that, particularily once Marner re-ups next year and gets his slight raise.

He has the potential for sure and had he not disappeared for games in a row, his last year number would have been better.
He just needs to show consistency.
If he drops to 82 pts I wouldn't give it to him. Why would they? They would have signed him by now.

 

[ACC1224]

From what I’ve seen Nylander has been great.

100%.

 

[Notsince67]

He is already as good as Marner or better. Doesn't matter how you slice it. Marner cant get a zone or operate under any tight checking coverage. He also doesn't have the wheels that William has. Lastly Goal production. He doesn't have the shot.

Is what it is. Points wise they are right there together and WN does it from the second line that he props JT up on. Unless we are going to have a dishonest disagreement here that WN does not create the time and space that allows a slow JT to be effective in.

Nylander is very good and worth his 10m. If only Marner would dial the paychecks back we would be fine. ((Both Mm and WN at around the 10m mark is ideal))

Matthews is a clear cut level above and the true star on the team. Gave no discount but did not drag us into hostile negotiations. Nylander makes for a great 1 2 punch with AM and now with Reaves smashing some faces we are in a good place.

Already? He is a year older and hasn't yet demonstrated a better year. Is this according to schedual?

 

[1specter]

Sign him ASAP, not getting it done before the season is already looking to be a mistake with how he's playing.

 

[ACC1224]

He has the potential for sure and had he not disappeared for games in a row, his last year number would have been better.
He just needs to show consistency.
If he drops to 82 pts I wouldn't give it to him. Why would they? They would have signed him by now.

For sure, it's only been two games. He just seems to be carrying himself differently this year, they all do.
That could be my imagination though. I'll be down there again tonight, I didn't notice any of the patented Willie fly-bys on Saturday. I'll look for them again tonight.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The whole idea of a contract being a distraction is a red herring. Has it distracted them so far? When the team has a rough stretch and loses two or three games, do you think the fact that Nylander doesn't have a contract will make the whole season go off the rails? You are creating a boogeyman that doesn't exist.

Actually, you're the one creating the boogeyman//strawman. I didn't say it would make the whole season go off the rails. I just said that it will be a distraction. We can't have Nylander walk for free. Unlike many here, I was very patient with the negotiations through the offseason, but I don't like it stretching into the season - especially with the recent history Treliving has.

 

[Nineteen67]

Signing him is fine, but if the past 13 games -playoffs and two games this season - is any indication, how do they fix the D?

 

[supermann_98]

From what I’ve seen Nylander has been great.

Nylander has been dynamite. He could've easily had 3-4 goals last game. Credit to Tavares for recognizing it and giving Willy the puck in the neutral and just trying to get open or going to the net.

Credit also to Klingberg for feeding him on the PP. Reilly for whatever reason was hesitant to shoot but was also hesitant to make a quick pass and by the time he did the D was set-up. This is the most dangerous the PP has looked probably ever.

 

[thewave]

Already? He is a year older and hasn't yet demonstrated a better year. Is this according to schedual?

I for consider them about equal although different. Keep in mind I will always value goal scorers more than playmakers as well as playoff performance 5:1 vs regular season. In the PO I would say WN is better and more consistent with his performances, especially in clutch situations.

WN
Speed - Shot and goal scoring - Zone entry - Solid playmaking

MM
Vision - Exceptional playmaking - Defense - He is pretty slippery as well

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Nylander has been dynamite. He could've easily had 3-4 goals last game. Credit to Tavares for recognizing it and giving Willy the puck in the neutral and just trying to get open or going to the net.

Credit also to Klingberg for feeding him on the PP. Reilly for whatever reason was hesitant to shoot but was also hesitant to make a quick pass and by the time he did the D was set-up. This is the most dangerous the PP has looked probably ever.

What’s been encouraging in the first two games is that even with Tavares being content to let Willy carry the puck, Willy also has been a lot more patient with the puck on his stick, holding it and even skating out of the zone and regrouping if a play isn’t there to be made. In the past he’s been a little too happy to just settle for a worse play in those circumstances.

 

[kevsh]

Everyone talks about Vasi for Tampa's wins, but those teams excelled at defense and had 3 forwards who carried their entire lineup. If the Leafs have a missing piece it's that dominant defenseman, but I'm not sure anyone has noticed that no other team in the Eastern conference has that either.

Not to derail much here but Vasi completely stole a few games for TB, including a few do-or-die game 7s in which he was untouchable. TB very likely does not have any of their Cup rings without him.

As for Eastern Conference D-men, maybe we have different opinions on what "dominant" means but by my count the Rangers have Fox, TB have Hedman (not sure if he's still that dominant, haven't seen him this year), Carolina has Slavin, Boston has McAvoy, Pens now have Karlsson, and up and coming teams like Buffalo and Ottawa have locked up future studs in Dahlin, Power & Sanderson.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, even if Willie is moved and/or Tavares comes off the books getting that stud defencemen isn't that easy. If they haven't drafted one, or one doesn't miraculously hit free agency good luck trading for one.

Treliving has a real task ahead of him filling out a Stanley Cup blue line regardless. Brodie and Gio may not be around long, Klingberg could be great but walk next Summer, and that leaves Reilly, McCabe, Liljegren & Timmins.

 

[Evilhomer]

Actually, you're the one creating the boogeyman//strawman. I didn't say it would make the whole season go off the rails. I just said that it will be a distraction. We can't have Nylander walk for free. Unlike many here, I was very patient with the negotiations through the offseason, but I don't like it stretching into the season - especially with the recent history Treliving has.

But how has it been a distraction? Has it impacted anything in the first two games? There is nothing to indicate that it is affecting Nylander or the team at all.

 

[Evilhomer]

Not to derail much here but Vasi completely stole a few games for TB, including a few do-or-die game 7s in which he was untouchable. TB very likely does not have any of their Cup rings without him.

As for Eastern Conference D-men, maybe we have different opinions on what "dominant" means but by my count the Rangers have Fox, TB have Hedman (not sure if he's still that dominant, haven't seen him this year), Carolina has Slavin, Boston has McAvoy, Pens now have Karlsson, and up and coming teams like Buffalo and Ottawa have locked up future studs in Dahlin, Power & Sanderson.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, even if Willie is moved and/or Tavares comes off the books getting that stud defencemen isn't that easy. If they haven't drafted one, or one doesn't miraculously hit free agency good luck trading for one.

Treliving has a real task ahead of him filling out a Stanley Cup blue line regardless. Brodie and Gio may not be around long, Klingberg could be great but walk next Summer, and that leaves Reilly, McCabe, Liljegren & Timmins.

I don't think that list of defenseman has more than one or two true number one guys on it. Fox is great at offense, as is Karlsson, but they are both quite poor defensively. Slavin is the opposite. McAvoy may be the closest to combining offense and defense at an elite level. Owen Power likely gets there, as well. Dahlin definitely covers the offensive side, but he is unlikely to be elite on the defensive side. Rielly is in this same mix of players. From my perspective, there just aren't that many dominant defensemen in the NHL anymore because so many young defensemen focus mostly on offense these days, and rightfully so given what offense means from a contract perspective.

Treliving will add at least two more defensemen this year, but they don't have to be elite guys.

 

[Notsince67]

Actually, you're the one creating the boogeyman//strawman. I didn't say it would make the whole season go off the rails. I just said that it will be a distraction. We can't have Nylander walk for free. Unlike many here, I was very patient with the negotiations through the offseason, but I don't like it stretching into the season - especially with the recent history Treliving has.

Don't mind the distraction if Willys play in the least 2 games is indicative of what's to come this year. Heck...I'd pay him even more for 1 year deals if this is what we can expect from distractions.

 

[Stephen]

I think MM, WN and AM's increases will eat up all of the Tavares savings. And can they can rely on getting a legit #2 c for $5M or less? Do you spend money elsewhere on the assumption that's happening? Sami has to be re-signed or replaced and if Woll can actually play he will need a huge raise in 2 years. Even on the cheap side the goalies figure to cost more than this season and maybe a lot more if they don't see Samsonov or Woll as their #1 going forward.

The bolded do come off the books but they are collectively cheap for what they bring. Two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards for $17.5 is cheap. Boeser signed for $6.65 coming off 23 and 18g seasons. Scheifele got $8.5 x 7 and he is 51st in pp60 over the last 2 seasons among centers. That's the market out there if Bert or Domi show anything this year.

Rather than look at how the team can manage to squeeze Willie in if a bunch of things go right shouldn't we/they be looking at what the competition is spending to fill out the top of their roster? What Cup winners built like this? Willie is a fine talent but he isn't Messier or Clark or Trottier who bring something special to the table they don't have in AM and MM already.

I respect your opinion but it isn't like they were knocking on the door this last playoff. Resigning Willie is running it back.

Just for the sake of argument and accounting.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander are currently at about $40.5 million give or take the novelty rounding.

Matthews at $13.2, Marner at $12.3 Nylander at $10 and Tavares at $5 would give you the Big 4 on new contracts at the same $40.5 million. I’ll leave it up to others to decide how the cookie should crumble between JT, Willie and Marner but there you have it from my thoughts.

In terms of defensive upgrades, Klingberg, Brodie represent $9.1 million in savings for a defensive shakeup. Domi and Bertuzzi add another $8.5 million in money that can be shifted to D.

So as long as the pie gets bigger and the Big 4 as a unit make the same money, it’s all good. And that’s if we want JT back.