Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[therealkoho]

My negotiations with hfboards just started. I'm asking for 100,000 more likes.

No man just cannot do it sorry, we'd like too but we really need to look at the budget first

(Plans to give ACC1224 the 100k instead)

 

[therealkoho]

With Matthews signed, Marner or Nylander seems to be popping up. While playoff performance seemingly being the deciding factor here (and a little unfair to Nylander as 2x 1st team all-star and Selke candidate Marner is easily a tier above for the regular season), lets check out the numbers:

Marner vs. Nylander the last 3 years in the playoffs with REL:

5v5:

Shot differential:
Marner: 55.06 (+6.55)
Nylander: 49.04 (-1.30)

High Danger Chance Differential:
Marner: 60.04 (+13.36)
Nylander: 50.80 (-0.18)

Expected Goal differential:
Marner: 59.29 (+10.65)
Nylander: 51.74 (-0.52)

Goal differential:
Marner: 65.98 (+23.46) - this leads all NHL forwards who have played at least 400 minutes
Nylander: 43.50 (-9.96)


5v5, its a complete mismatch. Marner destroys Nylander in every category and ranks as one of the better wingers in the NHL in the playoffs 5v5 the last 3 seasons.

Seeing as Marner is a great Pker who logs solid minutes on the PK, does Nylander have the production numbers to even stand a chance?

PP Production the last 3 years:
Marner: 1 goals, 8 assists for 9 points
Nylander: 4 goals, 3 assists for 7 points

All strengths production:
Marner: 5 goals, 21 assists for 26 points in 25 games
Nylander: 12 goals, 13 assists for 25 points in 25 games

Both players are PPG with Nylander being the better goal scorer but is that really enough to justify taking him over Marner? While Marner's production dipped from his regular season numbers, his defensive numbers made up for that in the overall picture. Nylander has scored some big goals but his passiveness and lack of defensive awareness has cost the team too. If he wants to get the big bucks, he needs a better 2 way game. Before anyone blames Tavares, here are the splits the last 3 years in the playoffs:

Tavares with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 52.27
GF%: 46.15

Matthews with Nylander 5v5:
xGF%: 54.04
GF%: 0.00

If almost 60 minutes playing with Matthews 5v5, they havnt been on the ice for a goal scored. Thats awful when you are not a good defensive player.

Both players have been valuable but Marner is the stronger asset when taking cap hit into the equation, even at their current numbers.

I'ts not stretch to say that Nylander's rep as a playoff guy is a tad overrated and Marner gets a bad rap.

If Nylander asks for a penny more than 8 mil, a trade would be the smart option IMO. Marner is good at practically everything and Nylander is a sub standard defensive player who doesn't PK. A great scoring winger. He should be paid like one.

Needed to be bumped more people need to see and realize that this narrative demeaning Marner, that's been around for the last 4 years( hmm contract hangover perhaps?) Is pure unadulterated horse-puckey!

 

[therealkoho]

LOL at the poster who would trade Nylander if he wanted more than 8m.

8.88 x 6

And I'm cool

 

[Notsince67]

Needed to be bumped more people need to see and realize that this narrative demeaning Marner, that's been around for the last 4 years( hmm contract hangover perhaps?) Is pure unadulterated horse-puckey!

Oh. crap. Cue the emotionally distraught examples of the Dunning Kruger effect. The crap might fly with the casual fans but anyone with a clue can spot the lacking grasp of the game.

 

[Kiwi]

8.88 x 6

And I'm cool

I'd take 9-9.5 over 6-8 years

We're committed to going for it while Matthews is here so losing Nylander over 500 grand doesn't make a ton of sense

Resign Marner, he shouldn't be in line for a massive raise since he's already on 11M a season

Tavares should make less next time around

We need to find talent to fill around these guys, it's amazing how fast 5 years can disappear

 

[Menzinger]

I'd take 9-9.5 over 6-8 years

We're committed to going for it while Matthews is here so losing Nylander over 500 grand doesn't make a ton of sense

Resign Marner, he shouldn't be in line for a massive raise since he's already on 11M a season

Tavares should make less next time around

We need to find talent to fill around these guys, it's amazing how fast 5 years can disappear

Thing that keeps getting lost in these discussions is if you extend a guy you can always return to a potential trade down the line. It locks in the asset for future use one way or the other.

If player and team are close enough on contract offers, just find a compromise and reassess how things stand in a season or two

 

[Kiwi]

Thing that keeps getting lost in these discussions is if you extend a guy you can always return to a potential trade down the line. It locks in the asset for future use one way or the other.

If player and team are close enough on contract offers, just find a compromise and reassess how things stand in a season or two

We're committed to a win now path

I'm as militant as anybody about contracts but Nylander walking because of a million dollars would be dumb, same goes for any player that helps us right now

 

[Gary Nylund]

Thing that keeps getting lost in these discussions is if you extend a guy you can always return to a potential trade down the line. It locks in the asset for future use one way or the other.

If player and team are close enough on contract offers, just find a compromise and reassess how things stand in a season or two

Yeah unless they have NMC's, then it's not quite that simple. I hope they resign Nylander though.

 

[Racer88]

I'd take 9-9.5 over 6-8 years

We're committed to going for it while Matthews is here so losing Nylander over 500 grand doesn't make a ton of sense

Resign Marner, he shouldn't be in line for a massive raise since he's already on 11M a season

Tavares should make less next time around

We need to find talent to fill around these guys, it's amazing how fast 5 years can disappear

Ya we just watched the last 5 years up in smoke with no real success

 

[fancy lad]

Honestly I don’t really care if he stays or is traded or goes somewhere else for a big raise.

Nylander is good player, but I always thought he was one dimensional and frankly not as effective as Matthews or Marner (I rate him higher than Tavares but I guess we have our former GM to thank for that).

I trust the current GMs ability to number crunch and give out contracts WAY more than the old guy.

If they can tie him down to a reasonable contract, then great. Otherwise This team still has the offensive fire power that Nylanders cap hit could be used in another way and they wouldnt be worse off.

 

[Kiwi]

Ya we just watched the last 5 years up in smoke with no real success

We just signed Matthews

We aren't rebuilding, we win or die trying while those core guys are still here so there's zero point getting upset about it

I'm not going to lose it because the team tried to win with the best amount of talent it's had in at least 2 decades

 

[authentic]

Honestly I don’t really care if he stays or is traded or goes somewhere else for a big raise.

Nylander is good player, but I always thought he was one dimensional and frankly not as effective as Matthews or Marner (I rate him higher than Tavares but I guess we have our former GM to thank for that).

I trust the current GMs ability to number crunch and give out contracts WAY more than the old guy.

If they can tie him down to a reasonable contract, then great. Otherwise This team still has the offensive fire power that Nylanders cap hit could be used in another way and they wouldnt be worse off.

Based on what exactly?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nice, we’re in Hornings Mills, I put going to Barrie almost as bad as Toronto, that place is just too busy, and with most drivers being commuters they’re more suited to a NASCAR track than a provincial roadway………

I don't think I've ever been there, but if they have a Legion my father-in-law has played there.

I used to go to Wasaga Beach in the 60s and early 70s, and Barrie was a little village between the 400 and the lake. Then the next time was 2008 when I met my current wife. What a difference! And not for the better, imo.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Needed to be bumped more people need to see and realize that this narrative demeaning Marner, that's been around for the last 4 years( hmm contract hangover perhaps?) Is pure unadulterated horse-puckey!

Maybe if you're going to bump that post, you should also bump the one that shows that post is wrong.

On April 20, Nylander scored 5v5 with Matthews assisting. On April 24, Matthews scored 5v5 with Nylander assisting.

And that's just the first two games I checked, on the first stat I looked into.

 

[Leafshater67]

I Hope Willy stays but not at 10M. 8.5 should be the upper limit and if he wants more, he’s gotta go.

It’s a little unfair to expect him to take a deal when Marner and Matthews won’t but they can’t spend that much on purely offensive forwards. They need to diversify their cap structure.

Another team could overpay him a bit and be fine but it’ll hurt the leafs a lot. They should try to move him to a team in need of offense like Carolina. Not sure what Pesce wants for an extension but it’s likely cheaper than Nylander’s ask.

Honestly though, I’d take Willy at 9 over Marner at 12-13. At some point, this team will have to make a major change instead of just doubling down on the same losing formula every year.

 

[Gilmour1996]

...Honestly though, I’d take Willy at 9 over Marner at 12-13. At some point, this team will have to make a major change instead of just doubling down on the same losing formula every year.

I expect they'll be doubling down on the same losing formula until Tavares retires and then they'll find a brand new losing formula.

 

[Racer88]

We just signed Matthews

We aren't rebuilding, we win or die trying while those core guys are still here so there's zero point getting upset about it

I'm not going to lose it because the team tried to win with the best amount of talent it's had in at least 2 decades

Not upset about it just disappointed that meaningful changes needed to be made and they were not.
Dubas tried to reinvent the wheel and failed. It looks like Treliving is just following along with the same thing.

 

[Sypher04]

Not upset about it just disappointed that meaningful changes needed to be made and they were not.
Dubas tried to reinvent the wheel and failed. It looks like Treliving is just following along with the same thing.

If by meaningful you mean the core, then debatable.

 

[Nineteen67]

Not upset about it just disappointed that meaningful changes needed to be made and they were not.
Dubas tried to reinvent the wheel and failed. It looks like Treliving is just following along with the same thing.

They’re thinking the cap is going up significantly in the next few years and they’re planning around that expectations. In this environment there’s no guarantee in a gate driven league, however they may as well assume it does.
Having said that, if they can sign Nylander for a reasonable(9-9.5) AAV then they’ll a lot of cap space in two years and the core is still young enough to build around.
If he doesn’t, no loss, they can trade him and acquire some assets to go along with his freed up cap hit.

 

[Racer88]

If by meaningful you mean the core, then debatable.

Yes the core. They have shown they cannot rise to the important games.
Just rerunning them over and over is a waste of what was the biggest chance the Leafs have had in decades.
without the crazy 11 million given to Tavares I would be on board with keeping the 3 of them but that signing alone has killed at least 5 years of what could have been a great rebuild

 

[fancy lad]

Based on what exactly?

based on the old guy put us under cap hell and the new guy has only made financially reasonable signings and contracts. not counting the reaves deal, but even then it pales in comparison to some of the inflated numbers dubas gave out.

Dubas had some great moments as GM, but the way he handled the big contracts was fukking atrocious. Ya i think it's safe to say Treliving will be an improvment in that aspect alone.

 

[Fogelhund]

I Hope Willy stays but not at 10M. 8.5 should be the upper limit and if he wants more, he’s gotta go.

It’s a little unfair to expect him to take a deal when Marner and Matthews won’t but they can’t spend that much on purely offensive forwards. They need to diversify their cap structure.

Another team could overpay him a bit and be fine but it’ll hurt the leafs a lot. They should try to move him to a team in need of offense like Carolina. Not sure what Pesce wants for an extension but it’s likely cheaper than Nylander’s ask.

Honestly though, I’d take Willy at 9 over Marner at 12-13. At some point, this team will have to make a major change instead of just doubling down on the same losing formula every year.

8.5 as an upper limit is out of touch with current contracts. $9.25 is about what we should expect, with some flexibility.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Not upset about it just disappointed that meaningful changes needed to be made and they were not.
Dubas tried to reinvent the wheel and failed. It looks like Treliving is just following along with the same thing.

Then the mandate is likely coming from above Treliving.

 

[kevsh]

Tavares should make less next time around

... With another team.

 

[ToneDog]

based on the old guy put us under cap hell and the new guy has only made financially reasonable signings and contracts. not counting the reaves deal, but even then it pales in comparison to some of the inflated numbers dubas gave out.

Dubas had some great moments as GM, but the way he handled the big contracts was fukking atrocious. Ya i think it's safe to say Treliving will be an improvment in that aspect alone.

I was all for signing Tavares for $10-10.5m but how do you give him $11m and following it up by giving Nylander, Matthews and Marner $30m, all the while knowing you have that 3rd year of Marleau to dump? Clearly he was not thinking one move ahead. The first for Marleau turning into Jarvis added salt to the wound for a GM in training. Shanny deserves full blame.