Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[ToneDog]

He ll be an 80 point solid 30 plus goals a year
Stamkos has thar left in him for 4 years I bet
You ll get stammer at about 9

If Willie walks, Reinhart (#2C) would be my target. Not interested in Stammer @ 9m.

 

[notDatsyuk]

For the record the Matthews deal is brutal.

As far as Nylander goes it’s not just a pointless streak. It’s the fact that he’s not a top 5 winger in the league and the hot streak had people trying to pay him as one.

I agree that Matty is overpaid, but there are many posters here who feel otherwise.

Over the last 3+ seasons, Willy is fourth in both goals and points among right wingers, with appreciably less ice time (except for Pastrnak), and the only one not playing on the top line. If you just compare him to Rantanen (one more year at $9.25), Pastrnak ($11.25), and Marner (one more year at $10.9), what's he worth?

But my point was really about the people (not necessarily you), who want to raise or drop a player's salary by millions, based on his last few games. (Willy seems to get this treatment more than anyone else.)

 

[Americanadian]

I agree that Matty is overpaid, but there are many posters here who feel otherwise.

Over the last 3+ seasons, Willy is fourth in both goals and points among right wingers, with appreciably less ice time (except for Pastrnak), and the only one not playing on the top line. If you just compare him to Rantanen (one more year at $9.25), Pastrnak ($11.25), and Marner (one more year at $10.9), what's he worth?

But my point was really about the people (not necessarily you), who want to raise or drop a player's salary by millions, based on his last few games. (Willy seems to get this treatment more than anyone else.)

Since when is Nylander comparable to those 3 players? They have all been much better than Nylander in the last 2/3/4/5 years. Tkachuk also plays RW so he can be included in this list. He should fall in below all of them.

 

[Stephen]

If Willie walks, Reinhart (#2C) would be my target. Not interested in Stammer @ 9m.

Reinhart would be such a weird player to add to the mix. Not that there’s anything wrong with him but he’s like the opposite of the Big 4 in the sense he looks like he’s just playing basic hockey and is productive. Probably closest to JT in that sense.

 

[Stephen]

So if the cap goes up to $87.5 million or whatever and the overall net increase is $4.1 million, with Matthews taking the first bite, I believe the Leafs can afford to give Nylander up to $2.6 million on raises, taking him to about $9.6 million without touching any other part of their roster. Give or take the vanity number rounding.

I suppose that’s a good framework for a long term deal. $900K taken from the rest of the roster takes him up to $10.5 million so that gives you a pretty good shape of what a successful negotiation does for you. What a Willie friendly deal means to the rest of the team.

If we subscribe to the idea that Tavares will either walk or come back at a much reduced contract, the upshot to this whole thing is if next year is a down year, the quality of the team will be ballpark what we’re seeing now before big sweeping changes can be implemented.

 

[ToneDog]

Reinhart would be such a weird player to add to the mix. Not that there’s anything wrong with him but he’s like the opposite of the Big 4 in the sense he looks like he’s just playing basic hockey and is productive. Probably closest to JT in that sense.

Allows you to move JT to wing. Another target would be Lindholm.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Since when is Nylander comparable to those 3 players? They have all been much better than Nylander in the last 2/3/4/5 years. Tkachuk also plays RW so he can be included in this list. He should fall in below all of them.

Did you miss the reasons I listed, along with the point of my post?

 

[Jojalu]

If Willie walks, Reinhart (#2C) would be my target. Not interested in Stammer @ 9m.

He makes 500k less than Willy now. What do you think his asking price would be?

 

[ToneDog]

He makes 500k less than Willy now. What do you think his asking price would be?

Hopefully what Willie turned down. If he puts up 50 goals, Lindholm would be my next target.

 

[Confucius]

He ll be an 80 point solid 30 plus goals a year
Stamkos has thar left in him for 4 years I bet
You ll get stammer at about 9

Stamkos 33, Nylander 27, younger guys of equal point production are generally worth more to a team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

For the record the Matthews deal is brutal.

As far as Nylander goes it’s not just a pointless streak. It’s the fact that he’s not a top 5 winger in the league and the hot streak had people trying to pay him as one.

I think it's not so much that people are saying he's a top 5 winger, it's that he's starting to look pretty good compared to Marner who's cap hit is what it is.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't like the 10 AAV number for Willy; but given what this team paid for Matthews (13.25) for 4 years and Matthews IMO has underperformed for his 11 AAV x 5 years contract;

not sure how Treliving is going to justify anything below 10 AAV for nylander; although I don't like that 10 AAV number

 

[rumman]

Allows you to move JT to wing. Another target would be Lindholm.

I’m all fir getting Lindholm……

 

[Menzinger]

What’s the price today? Holding firm at <$9M in the summer all of a sudden looks smart again.

9.5-10.5ish seems the safest bet all things considered. The cap hitting 90+ mil within a couple years is a variable though that's harder to account for from Nylanders agents pov

 

[Stephen]

He ll be an 80 point solid 30 plus goals a year
Stamkos has thar left in him for 4 years I bet
You ll get stammer at about 9

Stamkos is very poor playoff performer relative to the success his team has had and is probably just a speedier Tavares when it comes to 200 foot game. He’s not worth it. Tampa doesn’t seem to value him that highly either.

 

[Americanadian]

I think it's not so much that people are saying he's a top 5 winger, it's that he's starting to look pretty good compared to Marner who's cap hit is what it is.

Marner's deal is also bad. Just because a team overpays one winger doesn't mean they should overpay them all. I don't get how fans of the team are actively rooting for the team to sign another bad deal. Even then - Nylander hasn't been nearly as good as Marner (overall impact) until this season and there is a high probability that Marner will have the better season.

Did you miss the reasons I listed, along with the point of my post?

I must have missed the point because I saw red when you threw out Marner, Rantanen and Pastrnak as Nylander comparables.

 

[Americanadian]

9.5-10.5ish seems the safest bet all things considered. The cap hitting 90+ mil within a couple years is a variable though that's harder to account for from Nylanders agents pov

If it's a higher cap % than Tkachuk it'll be a bad deal day one. Let alone the fact that he's signing for years 28-36 unlike Tkachuk or Pastrnak.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner's deal is also bad. Just because a team overpays one winger doesn't mean they should overpay them all. I don't get how fans of the team are actively rooting for the team to sign another bad deal. Even then - Nylander hasn't been nearly as good as Marner (overall impact) until this season and there is a high probability that Marner will have the better season.

Mostly valid points. I would only say that the bolded h as not been true in the playoffs where the history has been that Marner does AWOL after the first few games and I'm not sure that Marner having a better season this time around is a high probablity.

Recent seasons also carry more weight that whatever happened years ago, I don't think there's any question that the gap between Marner and Nylander isn't what it once was.

As far as overpaying players, it's tough when you get to UFA status which is where you could argue that players get overpaid as a rule so overpay them, or maybe they walk. If I have to choose between paying Nylander 10.5x8 and losing him, I choose to pay him 10.5x8, even though that's maybe a slight overpayment.

The big mistake was overpaying Marner when he was nowhere near UFA status, we had leverage and we didn't use it. Now Nylander's agent is probably comparing him to Marner and I'd be doing the same thing if I was him.

 

[Americanadian]

Mostly valid points. I would only say that the bolded h as not been true in the playoffs where the history has been that Marner does AWOL after the first few games and I'm not sure that Marner having a better season this time around is a high probablity.

Recent seasons also carry more weight that whatever happened years ago, I don't think there's any question that the gap between Marner and Nylander isn't what it once was.

I agree that the gap is closing and I think their next deals should be close. I also believe Marner shouldn't be paid >10.5M.

As far as overpaying players, it's tough when you get to UFA status which is where you could argue that players get overpaid as a rule so overpay them, or maybe they walk. If I have to choose between paying Nylander 10.5x8 and losing him, I choose to pay him 10.5x8, even though that's maybe a slight overpayment.

This is correct regarding UFA players getting relatively overpaid. I respect your opinion, I have the opposite opinion. Don't sign a bad contract, don't lose the player for nothing, trade the player at peak value (today).

 

[notDatsyuk]

If it's a higher cap % than Tkachuk it'll be a bad deal day one. Let alone the fact that he's signing for years 28-36 unlike Tkachuk or Pastrnak.

Pastrnak is the same age, so I'm not sure why he's mentioned.

But yes, if Willy gets more than $10M of a cap of $87, it will be more proof on how badly Dubas messed up the Leafs' Cap situation.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree that the gap is closing and I think their next deals should be close. I also believe Marner shouldn't be paid >10.5M.

This is correct regarding UFA players getting relatively overpaid. I respect your opinion, I have the opposite opinion. Don't sign a bad contract, don't lose the player for nothing, trade the player at peak value (today).

Yeah fair enough, I think we missed the boat there though now that Marner's MNC has kicked in unless you're OK with him walking too.

I think we have 2 choices. Or rather, options 2 is what we would do if we stood firm on no overpayments

1 - try to sign Nylander, then extend Marner, live with the fact that they will be overpaid and try to win the cup. This is undoubtedly what will happen.

2 - choose not to overpay, put pressure on Marner to waive, and Matthews too probably and get whatever you can for Nylander. Not gonna happen.

Option 2 kind of sucks too TBH. I think I'd prefer to try to get Marner to waive, but keep Matthews and Nylander, re-tool around those two and live with the fact that UFA's often get overpaid, just try to keep those overpayments to a minimum.

 

[Americanadian]

Pastrnak is the same age, so I'm not sure why he's mentioned.

But yes, if Willy gets more than $10M of a cap of $87, it will be more proof on how badly Dubas messed up the Leafs' Cap situation.

Pastrnak is the same age but his contract already started. Similar to Larkin, similar to Fiala. These players will all see these big deals expire at an earlier age than Nylander despite being the same age today.

 

[Americanadian]

Yeah fair enough, I think we missed the boat there though now that Marner's MNC has kicked in unless you're OK with him walking too.

I think we have 2 choices. Or rather, options 2 is what we would do if we stood firm on no overpayments

1 - try to sign Nylander, then extend Marner, live with the fact that they will be overpaid and try to win the cup. This is undoubtedly what will happen.

2 - choose not to overpay, put pressure on Marner to waive, and Matthews too probably and get whatever you can for Nylander. Not gonna happen.

Option 2 kind of sucks too TBH. I think I'd prefer to try to get Marner to waive, but keep Matthews and Nylander, re-tool around those two and live with the fact that UFA's often get overpaid, just try to keep those overpayments to a minimum.

Not trading Marner this off-season was a huge mistake but I put that on Shanahan for switching management at the most crucial point of that process. I would personally pursue a Marner trade through any avenue possible. If he won't waive then I'd let him walk to UFA where he can find out for himself that no one will pay him 11M (I am confident in this, I understand not everyone is). I would also trade Nylander today, for the best package of futures (I proposed Nylander+McCabe for Miller+Lafreniere yesterday). I would then re-invest funds into 2C, defense and eventually goaltending. Build from the middle outwards rather than spend 1/4 of the cap on two RW's (Nylander 10+Marner 10.9 over a 87.7M cap).

 

[ToneDog]

I agree that the gap is closing and I think their next deals should be close. I also believe Marner shouldn't be paid >10.5M.

This is correct regarding UFA players getting relatively overpaid. I respect your opinion, I have the opposite opinion. Don't sign a bad contract, don't lose the player for nothing, trade the player at peak value (today).

With an $88m cap, at the same 13.38 cap%, he is at $11.8m and the cap will be rising another $4+m the season his new deal kicks in. With a $92m cap, at the same 13.38 cap%, he is at $12.3m.

Not trading Marner this off-season was a huge mistake but I put that on Shanahan for switching management at the most crucial point of that process. I would personally pursue a Marner trade through any avenue possible. If he won't waive then I'd let him walk to UFA where he can find out for himself that no one will pay him 11M (I am confident in this, I understand not everyone is). I would also trade Nylander today, for the best package of futures (I proposed Nylander+McCabe for Miller+Lafreniere yesterday). I would then re-invest funds into 2C, defense and eventually goaltending. Build from the middle outwards rather than spend 1/4 of the cap on two RW's (Nylander 10+Marner 10.9 over a 87.7M cap).

I can see both sides not making that deal.

 

[Americanadian]

With an $88m cap, at the same 13.38 cap%, he is at $11.8m and the cap will be rising another $4+m the season his new deal kicks in. With a $92m cap, at the same 13.38 cap%, he is at $12.3m.

Why does Nylander deserve the same cap hit % as Marner? Marner doesn't even deserve the same cap hit % as Marner.

It has already been discussed today in this thread but compounding mistakes doesn't lead to success.