Nylander Chronicles Part XXIV: Homer's Odyssey Edition

[Not My Tempo]

Just ****ing sign him give him the moneyif the difference is 1.5 million give him the money.

If you got trade Hyman who cares? If you have to trade Brown who cares? I like both those guys but you can replace those guys yoy don't keep them at the exspense of Nylander.

You pay your stars and replace your grunts.

Hyman and Brown are grunts you trade them if you need to to keep Nylander

I agree that you have to pay your stars, but with the Marleau and Zaitsev contract, we literally cannot give Nylander 8 Mil. It would mean giving Marner probably 8.5 and Matthews will be getting 12 either way.

With a 83 Mil cap:

1.2 retained Kessel
11 Tavares
9 Marner
12 Matthews
8 Nylander
4.5 Kadri
6.25 Marleau

5 Rielly
4.5 Zaitsev
0.9 Dermott

5 Andersen

That gives us 16.15 Mil to sign 7 forwards, 4 defensemen, and a backup goalie. Assuming the backup goalie is 1 Mil and the scratches are on 900k contracts, it leaves us 13.35 for 6 forward and 3 defensemen. Now if we assume our entire 4th line and bottom pair are also 900k contracts, we now have 8.85 Mil left to sign 3 forwards and 1 defensemen. So right there means Gardiner is probably gone. Let’s assume you can bridge Kapanen to a 3 year 3 M contract and stick him with Matthews and Nylander. We now need a winger for the second line, a winger for the third line and a top 4 defensemen and we have 5.85 M left. Let’s assume we continue going cheap for the wingers and just use some Marlies on 900k contracts, so now we have 4.05 to sign a top 4 defensemen. Idk if you’ve looked at the UFA class but there isn’t really anyone good we can sign for that amount. But let’s assume we can find a #4 with that.

RL is replacement level player

Kapanen - Matthews - Nylander
Marlie - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Marlie
RL - prob Goat - RL
RL

Rielly - #4
Dermott - Zaitsev
Marlie - Marlie
RL

Andersen
Backup

Does that D group seem like it can win anything? We have a top pairing guy, two middle pairing guys and then 4 replacement level players (yes I’m not very high on Zaitsev). What if the bottom pairing doesn’t work? We don’t have anymore wiggle room to trade for someone better.

For the offensive group, our 3rd line is basically going to depend on how much Kadri can carry a 40 year old Marleau and whatever RL player or Marlie he’s strapped with. And seeing how even a Kadri can’t carry Lindholm and Brown this year, I’m not holding my breath.

I think paying your stars is the right strategy. I don’t think we’re in a position to overpay our stars.

 

[Trapper]

November 1st is time for Dubas to seriously start listening to offers from other teams while trying to get Nylander signed for December 1st.
You are either going to be a part of this or gone for pieces that will.

 

[Slot]

what are all you guys going to do once this is all over? lol

Start speculating on Marner and or Matthsws contract negotiations. We'll be fine.

 

[Confucius]

November 1st is time for Dubas to seriously start listening to offers from other teams while trying to get Nylander signed for December 1st.
You are either going to be a part of this or gone for pieces that will.

Best offer was before 1st puck drop. Why would people think as time goes on there really is a better offer? As for trade offers, I'm sure Dubas is always listening.

 

[Nithoniniel]

yeah except he did sign before the season, and Nylander still hasn't. To me that shows that Nylander is to blame, not the agent

Yeah. I've heard that Gaudreau pushed to get a deal done before the season though, which is something that I don't see Willy doing. He's the kind of person who would just shift responsibility for something like this onto his agent. Especially with the father around to push the same hard line.

Not trying to shift blame though. It's still Willy's fault. Just wanted to highlight that it likely isn't because he's the one being completely unreasonable, it's more because he doesn't want to deal with it.

 

[Macallan18]

Yeah. I've heard that Gaudreau pushed to get a deal done before the season though, which is something that I don't see Willy doing. He's the kind of person who would just shift responsibility for something like this onto his agent. Especially with the father around to push the same hard line.

Not trying to shift blame though. It's still Willy's fault. Just wanted to highlight that it likely isn't because he's the one being completely unreasonable, it's more because he doesn't want to deal with it.

True. That's why I have thought of them as the Three Stooges. Willie is probably Curlie.

 

[Slot]

Just ****ing sign him give him the moneyif the difference is 1.5 million give him the money.

If you got trade Hyman who cares? If you have to trade Brown who cares? I like both those guys but you can replace those guys yoy don't keep them at the exspense of Nylander.

You pay your stars and replace your grunts.

Hyman and Brown are grunts you trade them if you need to to keep Nylander

If you overpay Nylander what do you think happens with Marner and Matthews. What happens to the cap situation then. You really haven't thought long term on that overpay statement.

 

[Trapper]

Best offer was before 1st puck drop. Why would people think as time goes on there really is a better offer?

You have to at least start listening to offers before you can determine what is good or bad.
As for better offer, we aren't getting Seth Jones or any D like that. Same way we didn't get it for Kessel. But we got some real nice pieces that are part of the future and making us better.

 

[nwarrior]

I have never set foot in the trade Willy camp, but this is getting out of hand. I think we need to go to him and say we will start reviewing offers by Nov 10th as it looks like he doesn't care to be part of the Leafs core.

On a side note, if he ends up sitting out this year he is going to be further behind financially then he would when this all comes to pass.

 

[Nithoniniel]

You have to at least start listening to offers before you can determine what is good or bad.
As for better offer, we aren't getting Seth Jones or any D like that. Same way we didn't get it for Kessel. But we got some real nice pieces that are part of the future and making us better.

I think they are listening. I just don't think they are negotiating.

 

[Confucius]

yeah except he did sign before the season, and Nylander still hasn't. To me that shows that Nylander is to blame, not the agent

Who really knows we are all guessing, my thoughts are some children do what their parents say all their life, some are fiercly independent as 15 year olds. I'm guessing William does as he's told.

 

[DarkKnight]

Duffy on TSN nailed it for me. If it was just the Leafs lowballing him that would be one thing, but when the sentiment around the league is unanimous that he’s in the 6.5 range-that’s his worth-then the whole thing starts to look ridiculous.

I hope we do try to trade him now, so the suitors can speak with his agent and get totally turned off by their demands. Maybe it will wake up his prideful father, or maybe the son will actually take control of his own destiny. I’m so sick of this bs story. As far as I’m concerned now we are here because of one side and it ain’t Dubas.

 

[ToneDog]

To me that shows the teams still low balling him .

Also half the league wants to trade for him so they must consider his ask reasonable and that also shows me the team is low balling him .

You have been on this rant for a long as Willie has held out. You and Willie seem to be cut from the same cloth. You might have to relocate if Leafs end up trading him.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Yeah. I've heard that Gaudreau pushed to get a deal done before the season though, which is something that I don't see Willy doing. He's the kind of person who would just shift responsibility for something like this onto his agent. Especially with the father around to push the same hard line.

Not trying to shift blame though. It's still Willy's fault. Just wanted to highlight that it likely isn't because he's the one being completely unreasonable, it's more because he doesn't want to deal with it.

The problem is that all these people are working for Willy. He can keep pushing it off to his agent and his dad all he wants but he is a grown man, and it is his career. If he really wanted to be a Leaf at this point it would take telling his dad he will see him at Christmas and telling the agent to get him a contract to sign. However this does end up playing out this is on Willy whether it is a happy resolution or he ends up in Carolina.

 

[Pookie]

If you overpay Nylander what do you think happens with Marner and Matthews. What happens to the cap situation then. You really haven't thought long term on that overpay statement.

Do you think Marner and Matthews are really going to use Nylander’s contract as the basis for theirs?

They will both be using elite players as their negotiating points.

Both contracts are basically already written. All that’s left is deciding which date they want the money truck to arrive.

If they fail to sign either, the fan base will revolt on Dubas.

 

[hotpaws]

You have been on this rant for a long as Willie has held out. You and Willie seem to be cut from the same cloth. You might have to relocate if Leafs end up trading him.

i'm ranting but the Me-Willie crowd who haven't stopped ripping him for 25 000 posts are acting rational ? lol

Duffy on TSN nailed it for me. If it was just the Leafs lowballing him that would be one thing, but when the sentiment around the league is unanimous that he’s in the 6.5 range-that’s his worth-then the whole thing starts to look ridiculous.

I hope we do try to trade him now, so the suitors can speak with his agent and get totally turned off by their demands. Maybe it will wake up his prideful father, or maybe the son will actually take control of his own destiny. I’m so sick of this bs story. As far as I’m concerned now we are here because of one side and it ain’t Dubas.

the suitors don't need permission to speak with his agent and already know his demands and since they still want to trade for him it seems they have no problem with what he's asking for

and since half the league is interested in trading for him maybe just maybe he is only asking for a fair market deal and it's the team still trying to force him to take a discount just like Shanny/Dubas/Babs have all said they wanted the kids to do ?

 

[Pookie]

Duffy on TSN nailed it for me. If it was just the Leafs lowballing him that would be one thing, but when the sentiment around the league is unanimous that he’s in the 6.5 range-that’s his worth-then the whole thing starts to look ridiculous.

I hope we do try to trade him now, so the suitors can speak with his agent and get totally turned off by their demands. Maybe it will wake up his prideful father, or maybe the son will actually take control of his own destiny. I’m so sick of this bs story. As far as I’m concerned now we are here because of one side and it ain’t Dubas.

Suitors can speak with his agent now. They don’t need permission.

And their willingness to trade for him tells everyone that Willie’s contract demands are within the boundaries they are willing to pay. They are going to give up assets knowing they will have a hold out.

So, Willie knows his market value because other teams have indicated what that value is.

It absolutely points to a low ball offer, dollar and/or term.

 

[613Leafer]

Duffy on TSN nailed it for me. If it was just the Leafs lowballing him that would be one thing, but when the sentiment around the league is unanimous that he’s in the 6.5 range-that’s his worth-then the whole thing starts to look ridiculous.

I hope we do try to trade him now, so the suitors can speak with his agent and get totally turned off by their demands. Maybe it will wake up his prideful father, or maybe the son will actually take control of his own destiny. I’m so sick of this bs story. As far as I’m concerned now we are here because of one side and it ain’t Dubas.

He's an RFA, every team in the league can already talk to him.

Fully agreed with Duthy. I've heard analysts say they've spoken to multiple GMs, all of whom pegged Nylander's value in that ~6.2-6.5M range, so it's not like the range of what would be considered a fair contract is huge with tons of room for disagreement.

It's one thing to lead with a high demand, it's another to sit out for over a month because of them. Sure, he's fully within his rights to do so, but I think it also shows his priorities. Getting fair market value isn't good enough for him to stay with Toronto, he wants well above fair market value.

 

[Pookie]

i'm ranting but the Me-Willie crowd who haven't stopped ripping him for 25 000 posts are acting rational ? lol



the suitors don't need permission to speak with his agent and already know his demands and since they still want to trade for him it seems they have no problem with what he's asking for

and since half the league is interested in trading for him maybe just maybe he is only asking for a fair market deal and it's the team still trying to force him to take a discount just like Shanny/Dubas/Babs have all said they wanted the kids to do ?

Logic.

It’s nice to see around here sometimes.

 

[Pookie]

He's an RFA, every team in the league can already talk to him.

Fully agreed with Duthy. I've heard analysts say they've spoken to multiple GMs, all of whom pegged Nylander's value in that ~6.2-6.5M range, so it's not like the range of what would be considered a fair contract is huge with tons of room for disagreement.

It's one thing to lead with a high demand, it's another to sit out for over a month because of them. Sure, he's fully within his rights to do so, but I think it also shows his priorities. Getting fair market value isn't good enough for him to stay with Toronto, he wants well above fair market value.

You don’t know what he’s asking for. Maybe it’s a term dispute.

Go with the first part of your analysis.

He knows what his market value is. If the Leafs were on point, why would he not sign?

Maybe there is a few fazools in there for leverage but not enough leverage (ie. can you do better than the Canes offer?) to keep a contract from being done.

Leafs are in a corner.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Point still remains when you are the 2nd highest cap hit in the league, you are expected to be a difference maker every night. There have been far too many nights where the Leafs don't show up. JT is expected to be the guy who is the spark, the difference maker, in those games. His salary dictates that he is our difference maker, on three nights this year he was a difference maker, the rest of the time he was invisible.

You make it sound like Nylander is right for wanting a trade as the Leafs picked Tavares over Nylander.

 

[Walshy7]

Duffy on TSN nailed it for me. If it was just the Leafs lowballing him that would be one thing, but when the sentiment around the league is unanimous that he’s in the 6.5 range-that’s his worth-then the whole thing starts to look ridiculous.

I hope we do try to trade him now, so the suitors can speak with his agent and get totally turned off by their demands. Maybe it will wake up his prideful father, or maybe the son will actually take control of his own destiny. I’m so sick of this bs story. As far as I’m concerned now we are here because of one side and it ain’t Dubas.

do you honestly believe the team trading for him wont ask to speak to his agent first? I sincerely hope we find a gullible GM like that. Pesce + for nylander without them talking to Gross?. Otherwise we are getting way below market value

 

[613Leafer]

do you honestly believe the team trading for him wont ask to speak to his agent first? I sincerely hope we find a gullible GM like that. Pesce + for nylander without them talking to Gross?. Otherwise we are getting way below market value

They don't need permission. He's an RFA, they can talk to him whenever they want.

 

[ToneDog]

i'm ranting but the Me-Willie crowd who haven't stopped ripping him for 25 000 posts are acting rational ? lol



the suitors don't need permission to speak with his agent and already know his demands and since they still want to trade for him it seems they have no problem with what he's asking for

and since half the league is interested in trading for him maybe just maybe he is only asking for a fair market deal and it's the team still trying to force him to take a discount just like Shanny/Dubas/Babs have all said they wanted the kids to do ?

Difference is that you virtually stand alone.

 

[Confucius]

You don’t know what he’s asking for. Maybe it’s a term dispute.

Go with the first part of your analysis.

He knows what his market value is. If the Leafs were on point, why would he not sign?

Maybe there is a few fazools in there for leverage but not enough leverage (ie. can you do better than the Canes offer?) to keep a contract from being done.

Leafs are in a corner.

Id reply, bring me the signed Canes offer. Simple isn't it?