Nylander Chronicles Part XXIV: Homer's Odyssey Edition

[hotpaws]

Because he is a good player I would presume? Probably the same reason the Leafs are interested in signing him.

but i keep hearing his salary demands are delusional so if they are why would a team give up assets just to grossly over pay him ?

 

[Walshy7]

Agreed Nylander > Ehlers but how much better ? Tell you one thing I don't think Jets would trade Ehlers for Nylander because of Nylander's asking price.

probably right, but then that's because they are happy they convinced ehlers to sign earlier and above Ehlers they have at least 2 maybe 3 better wingers, above nylander is marner and that's it so the jets wouldn't be wanting a winger anyway even if nylander was only $250K more than ehelers

 

[ACC1224]

because $7M is maybe (maybe) $$750K-500K too much to lose an elite winger for that is very amateur. Teams will trade for him at $7M so sign him and if it turns out after this year it wont work with Marner and Matthews then trade him. Signed Nylander will also bring a much better return in trade. And we keep him for this years cup run

Also sets the precedent that if you wait long enough you'll get what you want.

 

[Trapper]

I know exactly what happens to Marner and Matthews but like I said pay your stars trade the grunts, Hyman and brown are grunts, good grunts but still grunts they can be replaced

We have no evidence that the Leafs aren't going to pay their stars.
The question is, what is the star asking?
If the Leafs are offering fair value for Nylander's star level, what is the holdup?

 

[Confucius]

players as well mgmt come and go , they're all just employee's , people seem to ignore that reality

i cheer with the best of them when the games on but this situation has nothing to do with cheering for the crest

it sure did, you stated you cant believe fans took the teams side over one of their players. then added lol.

 

[Walshy7]

Well, you can love the city but not love your employment scenario.

If he really strongly wants to be a center, he has to leave the team.

If he signs with another team for 1st. / 2nd. line center position money we'll know what is what.

IMO the Leafs are in need of his contributions, either via trade value or on ice performance.

Now if Tavares becomes more dominant outside of putting up points, Nylander will be less important.

Again, IMO Nylander can be a dynamic forward, not like a Crosby who does it game after game, but often enough to make him a key player on almost any team.

I agree with all of this, I was pointing out maybe (and im not saying likely) that Dubas and co may have overvalued the "team and city" angle in terms of these 3

 

[TheBeastCoast]

but i keep hearing his salary demands are delusional so if they are why would a team give up assets just to grossly over pay him ?

Each team has a different salary structure. Maybe there is a team out there that can offer him a spot down the middle for the next 6 or 7 years and that entices him....as that is never going to happen in Toronto. There are a lot of different factors in play. Nylander isn't going to be 4 or 5th in the pecking order for a lot of the teams that would try and acquire him.

 

[hotpaws]

Of course not. They have been free to talk to the Nylander camp since July 1st. If they think they can sign him, value him and have the assets to trade for him, they can make an offer the same way Burke did for Kessel. To date no team has done so and they have 30 days left.

to date it keeps being reported Dubas isn't fielding offers

what do you think you're accomplishings by continuing to post non sense?

 

[Walshy7]

Also sets the precedent that if you wait long enough you'll get what you want.

but but I thought $8M or $8.5M was his want? people here were acting like Dreger and kypreos were gospel just last week.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

its common sense man, Ehlers chose security over playing out final year of ELC nylander didn't, Ehlers had a 38 point season and a 64 points season when he chose to sign. Nylander has a 13 point in 23 game stint (probably not useful but its numbers he put up), and 2 x 61 points seasons he has way more of a solid resume to use. Again its just common sense its not that hard man

Not how comps work. Further, there seems to be a bit of bias in this approach (i.e. "way more of a solid resume").

Also doesn't explain Filip Forsberg, who signed for 6x$6MM after back to back 60 point season, and a thirty goal campaign. Are there reasons to throw that comp out as well?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I agree that you have to pay your stars, but with the Marleau and Zaitsev contract, we literally cannot give Nylander 8 Mil. It would mean giving Marner probably 8.5 and Matthews will be getting 12 either way.

With a 83 Mil cap:

1.2 retained Kessel
11 Tavares
9 Marner
12 Matthews
8 Nylander
4.5 Kadri
6.25 Marleau

5 Rielly
4.5 Zaitsev
0.9 Dermott

5 Andersen

That gives us 16.15 Mil to sign 7 forwards, 4 defensemen, and a backup goalie. Assuming the backup goalie is 1 Mil and the scratches are on 900k contracts, it leaves us 13.35 for 6 forward and 3 defensemen. Now if we assume our entire 4th line and bottom pair are also 900k contracts, we now have 8.85 Mil left to sign 3 forwards and 1 defensemen. So right there means Gardiner is probably gone. Let’s assume you can bridge Kapanen to a 3 year 3 M contract and stick him with Matthews and Nylander. We now need a winger for the second line, a winger for the third line and a top 4 defensemen and we have 5.85 M left. Let’s assume we continue going cheap for the wingers and just use some Marlies on 900k contracts, so now we have 4.05 to sign a top 4 defensemen. Idk if you’ve looked at the UFA class but there isn’t really anyone good we can sign for that amount. But let’s assume we can find a #4 with that.

RL is replacement level player

Kapanen - Matthews - Nylander
Marlie - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Marlie
RL - prob Goat - RL
RL

Rielly - #4
Dermott - Zaitsev
Marlie - Marlie
RL

Andersen
Backup

Does that D group seem like it can win anything? We have a top pairing guy, two middle pairing guys and then 4 replacement level players (yes I’m not very high on Zaitsev). What if the bottom pairing doesn’t work? We don’t have anymore wiggle room to trade for someone better.

For the offensive group, our 3rd line is basically going to depend on how much Kadri can carry a 40 year old Marleau and whatever RL player or Marlie he’s strapped with. And seeing how even a Kadri can’t carry Lindholm and Brown this year, I’m not holding my breath.

I think paying your stars is the right strategy. I don’t think we’re in a position to overpay our stars.

I'm sure you can convince Marleau to go back to SJ, also you can move the Zaitsev deal if yiu need too.

This "cap crunch" people think is coming either isn't coming at all or is EXTREMELY short term and WAY overblown

 

[Gary Nylund]

Make a final offer of 6.8M x 6 years.

If he doesn’t want it, he doesn’t want to be here, so go get us Brett Pesce Dubas!!

I keep trying to think about what a Nylander/Pesce swap would do for our team. If Pesce's low cap hit helps us keep Gardiner in the process, that's a big consideration for me. I'd hate to lose Nylander but if it has to happen, an outcome of having a top 3 of Rielly, Gardiner and Pesce going forward sounds very attractive.

 

[ToneDog]

We have no evidence that the Leafs aren't going to pay their stars.
The question is, what is the star asking?
If the Leafs are offering fair value for Nylander's star level, what is the holdup?

I asked the same question prior to July 1st when everybody said JT was going to sign with the Isles. Something is not right with Willie and I strongly believe it has something to do with the Tavares signing. Perhaps he wants out and Dubas has spent these past few months trying to convince him to stay? Those of us on the outside have no idea.

 

[ACC1224]

but but I thought $8M or $8.5M was his want? people here were acting like Dreger and kypreos were gospel just last week.

No idea what he wants.

 

[hotpaws]

Each team has a different salary structure. Maybe there is a team out there that can offer him a spot down the middle for the next 6 or 7 years and that entices him....as that is never going to happen in Toronto. There are a lot of different factors in play. Nylander isn't going to be 4 or 5th in the pecking order for a lot of the teams that would try and acquire him.

i agree but that has nothing to do with people saying Willie is being delusional in his demands

and just because we can't afford to pay him as much as his comparable's or other teams would if you like it put that way better doesn't mean his ask is unreasonable

 

[Walshy7]

Not how comps work. Further, there seems to be a bit of bias in this approach (i.e. "way more of a solid resume").

Also doesn't explain Filip Forsberg, who signed for 6x$6MM after back to back 60 point season, and a thirty goal campaign. Are there reasons to throw that comp out as well?

yeah way more solid resume is a bit of bias you are right, I should of said more solid resume it was 24 points better than his worst season though that's pretty significant, and Ehelrs 64 points is better than either of nylanders years.

Forsberg did sign 2 years ago and for only 6 years I was comparing Ehelers because he has 7 years signed last year

 

[thewave]

but but I thought $8M or $8.5M was his want? people here were acting like Dreger and kypreos were gospel just last week.

We are stuck at our number with little ability to move because I assume it was a fair number and one they assumed should work. The reports are he wants substantially more and we can't work the cap. If we just give him more, everyone will exploit that. If we try and trade after signing for cap reasons, team low ball us.

 

[Walshy7]

No idea what he wants.

that's what a lot of posters here believe to be the truth. And it may be but it comes back to him signing elsewhere for $7M showing that he really wasn't being outrageously over the top with his demands

 

[Not My Tempo]

I'm sure you can convince Marleau to go back to SJ, also you can move the Zaitsev deal if yiu need too.

This "cap crunch" people think is coming either isn't coming at all or is EXTREMELY short term and WAY overblown

People keep saying that about Marleau, but everything he has said since the signing indicates that it was a super hard decision for him to uproot his family and move to Toronto. You really think that 1. He’s going to willing waive his NMC, uproot his family AGAIN to go back to San Jose, and 2. You can convince San Jose, who are going to have cap troubles of their own next year, to take on even part of Marleaus contract?

And I have a hard time believing any team in the league wants to take on a bottom pairing defenseman making 4.5 Mil for the next 5 years, and who has a NTC kicking in right after they acquire him. Maybe we can lucky by negotiating with Pierre Dorion

 

[ToneDog]

I keep trying to think about what a Nylander/Pesce swap would do for our team. If Pesce's low cap hit helps us keep Gardiner in the process, that's a big consideration for me. I'd hate to lose Nylander but if it has to happen, an outcome of having a top 3 of Rielly, Gardiner and Pesce going forward sounds very attractive.

Same here but I would not mind seeing what our offence looks like with Willie first. With Willie perhaps all we need is a small add to our D.

 

[4thline]

its common sense man, Ehlers chose security over playing out final year of ELC nylander didn't, Ehlers had a 38 point season and a 64 points season when he chose to sign. Nylander has a 13 point in 23 game stint (probably not useful but its numbers he put up), and 2 x 61 points seasons he has way more of a solid resume to use. Again its just common sense its not that hard man

Nylander chose to gamble and parred it off. His "way more solid of resume" suggests that he is a "slightly" more sure 60 point player. How does that relate to his wanting to be paid as a 70-80 point player? Common sense says that a 60 points in a season = 60 points in a season, that the only value of past performance is in projecting future performance. Ehlers was projected to be a 60+ point winger on a contract starting this season. Nylander is projected to be a 60+ point winger on a contract starting this season. There was a chance that Ehlers would have proven to be at a higher level by the end of his ELC, there was a risk that he would regress. With Nylander that chance is not present, because it's today

Do you think that Marner is playing this season in the hopes that he'll raise his value by matching last years output or exceeding it?

After a lot of thought I don't even use Ehlers contract as a comparable because he shorted himself by essentially throwing in an extra year of term, but that has nothing to do with him signing a year early. It would matter if he signed early and put up 70+ afterwords and Willy put up 70+, but that didn't happen.

 

[ULF_55]

Well Orr sounded positive yesterday about Matthews being here long term. I'd be happy going forward with JT and AM and trading anybody who does not "buy in".

Leafs ticket prices are much much higher than other teams prices because it's a business and Toronto fans will pay.
When it comes to players' contract it is the same thing a business. Players are independent contractors, belonging to a union and have every right to withhold their services if they are not being paid. Additionally, they have no obligation to sign any contract period.

Of course they understand if they don't sign any contract they don't get any money.

Tavares bought in for what the 2nd. highest average annual salary?
Tavares is not the 2nd. best player in the league by a long shot.

We have no idea about any of them buying in based on signing a team friendly contract.

 

[Buds17]

what does an offer sheet have to do with the Leafs low balling him ?

if Willie is being unreasonable why is half the league interested in trading for him ?

There's a few reasons why a team might prefer a trade to an offer sheet. The Leafs can obviously match an offer sheet. The team might not want to themselves go to the level of amount/compensation where the Leafs could find it difficult to match. Finally, an offer sheet involves unknown picks (even though the season has started) and the team might be cautious of giving up that value.

Apparently many teams are interested, and while they might have all intentions of giving Nylander a viable offer, it's not certain that they are/would be offering the Leafs enough in a trade.

 

[Cor]

I keep trying to think about what a Nylander/Pesce swap would do for our team. If Pesce's low cap hit helps us keep Gardiner in the process, that's a big consideration for me. I'd hate to lose Nylander but if it has to happen, an outcome of having a top 3 of Rielly, Gardiner and Pesce going forward sounds very attractive.

Would certainly make it more attainable.

I’d hate to lose Gardiner over a one year cap crunch. After next season, our cap situation is back to normal and we have plenty of space, especially with expansion coming again.

With our current structure, I’d say at most we are able to offer the 4.5 Rielly is making. If we had Pesce at 4M instead of Nylander at 8M like Nylander wants, we can use some of that savings to be able to offer Gardiner the 5.5-6M he’s likely looking for, as well as being able to comfortably sign Kasperi Kapanen.

In a perfect world, we resign Nylander to a fair deal, find a team to buyout Marleau for us, and then resign Gardiner as well

 

[TheBeastCoast]

i agree but that has nothing to do with people saying Willie is being delusional in his demands

and just because we can't afford to pay him as much as his comparable's or other teams would if you like it put that way better doesn't mean his ask is unreasonable

I don't think he is worth 8 million dollars a year long term....I don't believe he has any comparable in that range. If you believe he does thats fine and if he happens to find that elsewhere then good for him. I don't have any contempt for Nylander over any of this. I just have no interest in seeing the Leafs sign Nylander over like 6.5. If he can successfully find another team to pay him what he thinks he is worth then all the power to him.