Now that it's done are you happy with the goaltending?

[Isaac Nootin]

Hopefully either Murrey bounces back, although he has a larger sample of bad play in the NHL than good.

That's not true.

He was good for most of his run in Pittsburgh. Just take a look at his career numbers. Either the good was INSANELY good, or the bad is overrated.

Especially if you include his 51 NHL Playoff Games of .921% and 2.18 GAA

 

[Trapper]

I think in the last 20 years only two teams have won the cup with a goalie they traded for (the others won with tenders they drafted). One of them was Colorado. Statistically, it would be coming close to impossible that we win with this tandem. I don't know what the Vegas odds or who is doing the calculations but, I don't see it. I am pretty damn sure we missed the boat and there is no sane reason to be holding on to Dubas at this point. New direction is needed right away.

The team is going to need restructuring due to the cap and some serious considerations need made after Johnny G leaving Calgary. I really would hope that you pay attention to US citizens heading home and how it relates to our approach to lockdowns and other things. These are very rational considerations to make under the circumstances. Look what's making rounds in the media regarding Covid lockdowns returning. People are scared, don't want to be stuck away from their family because of closed borders and all sorts of things like that.

We're not in great shape. I wish we were. Matthews is a great player, Marner hasn't really shown up in PO's especially G7s. Nylander isn't my cup of tea but he's had good G7s point wise and pretty fair for his cap hit at this point. JT is aging quick and not worth close to his cap hit.

What would you do?

My concerns on this team are bigger than goaltending.
Again, I don’t think the makeup of this core is right (the sum of the parts needs to be greater than an individual) and the cap structure has bled the depth and left us with low quality support.
So people expect a goalie to be .930 to make up for it.

 

[thewave]

My concerns on this team are bigger than goaltending.
Again, I don’t think the makeup of this core is right (the sum of the parts needs to be greater than an individual) and the cap structure has bled the depth and left us with low quality support.
So people expect a goalie to be .930 to make up for it.

That's right. They needed new management and to evaluate at the end of last season. Then again at the end of this previous season, but for some strange reason Shanahan has married himself to Dubas. I have no idea if this is because Dubas was a board directed hire and Shanahan doesn't want to rock the boat or pull the trigger, but, it doesn't add up logically.

You understand whats going on in my books. We're all just passengers here on the SS Dubas though, so.

 

[93LEAFS]

That's not true.

He was good for most of his run in Pittsburgh. Just take a look at his career numbers. Either the good was INSANELY good, or the bad is overrated.

Especially if you include his 51 NHL Playoff Games of .921% and 2.18 GAA

He has a sub .910 sv% for more of his years in the league than he does above, and was only above .920 prior to the 2017-18 season.

 

[Fogelhund]

Am I happy about it? No. But then any of the guys that I would have wanted didn't get moved. Ok. Comrie/Samsanov were about equal to me... so I'm a bit ambivalent there.

I had hoped that someone like Markstrom or Hellebuyck would be on the move, as their teams go into some sort of rebuild. This hasn't happened. These guys are tangible upgrades. The rest of the guys who moved... we could argue some were marginally better, but that margin is thin, and five year terms aren't acceptable either.

Originally I was like Markstrom/Hellebuyck, or Fleury/Blackwood... Fleury/Blackwood didn't get moved...

In the end, we took a couple of guys, because that's what was available. Honestly, it kind of sucks. But then options?

 

[Isaac Nootin]

He has a sub .910 sv% for more of his years in the league than he does above, and was only above .920 prior to the 2017-18 season.

Sample size matters.

His last 2 years combined in Ottawa (47 total) were less games played than his single years of .923 (49 games) and .919 (50 games)

Also 50+ games of .921% in the playoffs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Samsonov potential is intriguing because of how late goalies develop and history of success in the KHL but he’s a bit of a gamble. I would have preferred to make the gamble with a bit more certainty than Matt Murray as his tandem partner.

 

[93LEAFS]

Sample size matters.

His last 2 years combined in Ottawa (47 total) were less games played than his single years of .923 (49 games) and .919 (50 games)

Also 50+ games of .921% in the playoffs.

if you are posting sub.900 save percentages your sample size isn't going to get larger because they aren't going to play you.

 

[MoreMogilny]

Can’t be fully happy with the goaltending until we see a little bit of what we do have.

I’m excited to see what should be a healthy Murray playing with a much better team in front of him than he’s had.

Also similarly excited to see a Samsonov that’s betting on himself with a single year contract.

Should at least be some competition between the two. Could end up a complete disaster, but I don’t think it’ll be what ruins the season for this team at the end of the day.

 

[thewave]

Samsonov potential is intriguing because of how late goalies develop and history of success in the KHL but he’s a bit of a gamble. I would have preferred to make the gamble with a bit more certainty than Matt Murray as his tandem partner.

Samsonov was worth the gamble. The point is we shouldn't need to be gambling at all with our tenders considering the core we have. As if Matthews and the guys don't know that we are gambling right now. As if they don't know their contracts aren't coming up and that this management is incompetent right now.

The Board and Shanny must be totally disconnected bobble heads with zero foresight. What other conclusion can be drawn really?

 

[CDN24]

For this strategy/plan or whatever this is to work out Murray has to work out and at least be the equal of Samsonov. Samsonov is a great insurance plan for this year but what happens if Murray puts up Mazarek like performance and Samsonov is clearly the better goalie. At the end of the year Samsonov will need a new contract and Leafs will be hard pressed to pay him what he is worth without finding a way to dump Murray.

All the risk long term is still on Murray working out. At the end of the day the goalie carrousel is a symptom of the real problem which his too much cap tied up in 4 F

 

[Drytoast]

Cautiously optamistic.

The risk is low while the reward is high.

Samsonov was a first round pick...and had a rough go in Washington. So he has a chance to reset and start over. Could work.

Murray has done the dance and won the thing twice! So he CAN do it. And you don't simply forget how to do it. So hopefully with the help of our excellent medical staff, he gets back on track as well.

Campbell for term could have been a disaster should he have a poor showing this year. His contract would have been hard to get out from under as we look to free up cap space next summer in an effort to resign Marner and Matthews.

So this was the correct play as much as I love Soup. Great guy. Deserves to get paid. But there is a high risk there and we can't afford to get trapped by a bad contract now to when M and M need to get resigned.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

if you are posting sub.900 save percentages your sample size isn't going to get larger because they aren't going to play you.

That's fair.

Still doesn't mean his sample size of poor goaltending is greater than his sample size of good goaltending. Especially when including his playoff games.

 

[Drytoast]

Samsonov was worth the gamble. The point is we shouldn't need to be gambling at all with our tenders considering the core we have. As if Matthews and the guys don't know that we are gambling right now. As if they don't know their contracts aren't coming up and that this management is incompetent right now.

The Board and Shanny must be totally disconnected bobble heads with zero foresight. What other conclusion can be drawn really?

Marner and Matthews have a management that has consistently spent to the cap wall, used cap trickery and the like and has done everything it could given the state of the cap/covid and both their contracts pinching our cap space.

If management were standing pat that would be one thing, but I think Dubas has done a remarkable job keeping the core together while supporting them as much as they can given the circumstances.

You are being ridiculous.

 

[Buds17]

Hoping to be. As much as I didn't like to entirely overhaul the position, Mrazek couldn't return after last season's struggles and Campbell couldn't really be signed to that contract. That said, the team is allocating more to the goaltenders now in comparison to this past season. As such, it'd be great to have the goalie competition with Murray and Samsonov that never quite materialized with Campbell and Mrazek.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I have more optimism with our current goaltending tandem than I did at the end of last season.

I have a feeling that Murray in particular is going to make a lot of people eat crow.

 

[SanderSen]

Talent wise it is a decent pick-up, the big question is can you get more than 25 games out of him. It was not that Murray was bad in Ottawa, it was his health and multiple concussions. He would go on a really nice run for a few weeks, then would be out with health problems. He forced management to look for mid-season fixes, which is why Forsberg was claimed off of waivers.

A physical checkup does not account for the concussion situation, which is a tough one. I expect he will be super motivated this season and if healthy he will play very well, particularly against Ottawa of course.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What would you do?

It's tough, there are no easy answers. People are shitting all over Dubas and for sure he is responsible but going into the playoffs, I've liked our team every single year so not sure how much I can complain TBH. Maybe he's assembled the wrong mix of players but if you ask me which ones are the problem, I honestly can't tell you because like I said, I like our team every year and I've thought we're a top favourite for some time now. And we really played well last year I thought, we could have so easily beaten TB, for the first time in a long time I don't feel ashamed about the way we lost to that's something at least. It's not success, but saying fire everyone and tear it all down to me seems like a ridiculous POV.

If I was in charge, I would have interviewed Dubas after the end of the season the last 3 years (especially the last 2) and depending on what he said his plan was, I may have kept him on or I would have stared to look for a replacement. I'm just a dumb fan though so what I will do is sit back, watch and hope, same as every other year.

I'm not too worried about Matthews leaving. Doesn't impact this season anyway so not going to waste my time on that right now.

You don't have faith in what the bookies say and that's fine. I think they're right, we are one of the best teams in the league and if I had to rate our changes of winning the cup, I'd put us behind COL and probably TB as well but beyond that, I can't name one other team who's chances I like better. Can you?

I don't believe in curses. We've lost 6 PO series in a row. The odds of that happening as it did are well below 5%. So many people are confident that the past dictates the future, I'm not one of them. We'll see what happens this season, it could another punch in the gut or we could win the cup. So much rides on the goaltending, we'll see what happens.

It's easy to be down about what's happened, I get it and I'm pretty down about it myself. But if I put my emotions aside and look at things from a distance, well it's like I said, we're one of the favourites to win the cup this season so it's not all bad, simple as that. And that being the case, I can't take those people seriously who think Dubas is a complete moron, I just can't. That said, I do believe this is his last kick at the can and how our new goalies play will decide if we break through this season or not and if not, I think Dubas is gone.

 

[thewave]

Marner and Matthews have a management that has consistently spent to the cap wall, used cap trickery and the like and has done everything it could given the state of the cap/covid and both their contracts pinching our cap space.

If management were standing pat that would be one thing, but I think Dubas has done a remarkable job keeping the core together while supporting them as much as they can given the circumstances.

You are being ridiculous.

It's patchwork. We have no top 10 Goalie and are expecting to win a cup. Statistically unlikely to even win a cup without a drafted number one tender. It's a reality. Dubas has put together a really great club house where buddies can chill, play a season. Exit the POs and wait for negotiations to roll around.

Muskoka 5 2.0 confirmed. That's what we have under Dubas.

 

[DuklaNation]

Mediocre with little to no upside.

 

[Drytoast]

It's tough, there are no easy answers. People are shitting all over Dubas and for sure he is responsible but going into the playoffs, I've liked our team every single year so not sure how much I can complain TBH. Maybe he's assembled the wrong mix of players but if you ask me which ones are the problem, I honestly can't tell you because like I said, I like our team every year and I've thought we're a top favourite for some time now. And we really played well last year I thought, we could have so easily beaten TB, for the first time in a long time I don't feel ashamed about the way we lost to that's something at least. It's not success, but saying fire everyone and tear it all down to me seems like a ridiculous POV.

If I was in charge, I would have interviewed Dubas after the end of the season the last 3 years (especially the last 2) and depending on what he said his plan was, I may have kept him on or I would have stared to look for a replacement. I'm just a dumb fan though so what I will do is sit back, watch and hope, same as every other year.

I'm not too worried about Matthews leaving. Doesn't impact this season anyway so not going to waste my time on that right now.

You don't have faith in what the bookies say and that's fine. I think they're right, we are one of the best teams in the league and if I had to rate our changes of winning the cup, I'd put us behind COL and probably TB as well but beyond that, I can't name one other team who's chances I like better. Can you?

I don't believe in curses. We've lost 6 PO series in a row. The odds of that happening as it did are well below 5%. So many people are confident that the past dictates the future, I'm not one of them. We'll see what happens this season, it could another punch in the gut or we could win the cup. So much rides on the goaltending, we'll see what happens.

It's easy to be down about what's happened, I get it and I'm pretty down about it myself. But if I put my emotions aside and look at things from a distance, well it's like I said, we're one of the favourites to win the cup this season so it's not all bad, simple as that. And that being the case, I can't take those people seriously who think Dubas is a complete moron, I just can't. That said, I do believe this is his last kick at the can and how our new goalies play will decide if we break through this season or not and if not, I think Dubas is gone.

Dubas couldn't have predicted that COVID was going to shut everything down and f*** over his mid term expectation of cap growth.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

There was pretty much no way I was going to be happy with the goaltending situation. I don't hate having Murray/Samsonov though, seeing as there is some upside and they aren't long term signings. Obviously didn't get a good deal for Murray though, that hurts. Ottawa is laughing after that trade.

Campbell alternative at 5x5 is way too risky though, especially after how bad he was last year for a good stretch.

Goaltending isn't the main problem though, our forwards can't step up enough in the playoffs and the secondary scoring is basically non-existent.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dubas couldn't have predicted that COVID was going to shut everything down and f*** over his mid term expectation of cap growth.

Absolutely and that is something people obviously don't understand who are constantly bitching about the Tavares signing. The question is, should he have made major changes to adjust to the new reality and that's tough to answer. It's so easy to say yes because with hindsight, things haven't worked out well for us but it's hard to say what he could or should have done and we're still in good shape as it is.

 

[Drytoast]

It's patchwork. We have no top 10 Goalie and are expecting to win a cup. Statistically unlikely to even win a cup without a drafted number one tender. It's a reality. Dubas has put together a really great club house where buddies can chill, play a season. Exit the POs and wait for negotiations to roll around.

Muskoka 5 2.0 confirmed. That's what we have under Dubas.

Oh for christ sakes. It's not a club house. The players went for it last playoffs. They put it all on the ice and I have no complaints over the effort.

You cannot fault Dubas for COVID f***ing the cap up and screwing his long term cap plans. He's done a remarkable job addressing the teams issues and consistently has gotten them better.

2020 we won the president's trophy in that COVID season
2021 we were second but smashed the team record in points per season at 115.

So far, Dubas has insured that he hasn't signed any contract this summer that he can't get out from under.

He's done great.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This tandem is the ultimate definition of high risk/high reward. There is both reasons for optimism and skepticism.

Murray has won 2 cups and when he is on his game, he is a top 10-15 goalie. But he also comes with a list of injuries and inconsistent play the last few years. He seems to be invigorated about coming to play for his childhood team and be reunited with his favorite goalie coach. We also have a new goalie coach in Sanford who seemingly did a great job in Vancouver.

Samsonov I haven't been overly high on but how can you not like this signing at that cap hit for 1 year and the potential upside that comes with it. Former 1st round pick that had some decent hype about him. He is still only 25, which is young for a goalie and he's healthy.

Our offense and Defense is good enough to carry us to the playoffs but it's the goaltending that is going to make or break this season and what will decide Dubas' fate. I feel that I both like this tandem and not feel confident in this tandem. We just need them to be better than Campbell/Mrazek. Ideally we need them both to be above a .910sv%.

Great post, perfect summary!