That's fair Newhook is easily the worst guy out there almost every night.
GDT: Nobodies vs THE GREATEST TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED
- Thread starter The Moops
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Foppberg
Registered User
Honestly, let them have it. They really worked their ass off last night to win a game against a team that's missing half their top 4 and 1/3 of their top 6, that's a lot to ask of them.
dahrougem2
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henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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His confidence is shot… very clear he is over thinking and hesitant. Even if you’re sitting him for a traffic cone, the mental reset might be good for him.
Foppberg
Registered User
I'd be fine with moving on from Newhook if it gets us someone who's decently young and can help us win now.
dahrougem2
Registered User
So there are a few things to take away from the Avs play thus far. The advanced stats paint a confusing picture.
The Avs are near the bottom of the league in xGF% and HDSC% but are in the upper half of the league when it comes to Corsi and SC%.
They're #1 in the league in SV% but are 3rd last in shooting %. So while I understand the skepticism re: goaltending regressing, the opposite can be said about shooting % trending in a positive direction. Last season the Avs shot 8.94%, this year they're shooting 6.76%.
I think there are two options here:
1) The Avs just try to survive until Landeskog returns (Nichushkin/Girard/Byram likely back at this point, too) and bide time until TDL where they look to acquire a rental 2C.
2) The Avs get real aggressive and shop one of Girard/Byram in hopes of landing a long term 2C. I've stated how against trading Byram I am, but if the Avs deem it worthwhile to shore up the 2C position then I guess you've gotta do what you've gotta do.
What I personally think happens is the Avs wait until TDL and Jonathan Toews makes it known he'd like to join the Avs, and that's that. I believe the Avs could use another forward, though, for the 3rd line. I'm not convinced (if we get a 2C) that a Newhook - ERod - Compher 3rd line can be successful come playoffs.
The Avs are near the bottom of the league in xGF% and HDSC% but are in the upper half of the league when it comes to Corsi and SC%.
They're #1 in the league in SV% but are 3rd last in shooting %. So while I understand the skepticism re: goaltending regressing, the opposite can be said about shooting % trending in a positive direction. Last season the Avs shot 8.94%, this year they're shooting 6.76%.
I think there are two options here:
1) The Avs just try to survive until Landeskog returns (Nichushkin/Girard/Byram likely back at this point, too) and bide time until TDL where they look to acquire a rental 2C.
2) The Avs get real aggressive and shop one of Girard/Byram in hopes of landing a long term 2C. I've stated how against trading Byram I am, but if the Avs deem it worthwhile to shore up the 2C position then I guess you've gotta do what you've gotta do.
What I personally think happens is the Avs wait until TDL and Jonathan Toews makes it known he'd like to join the Avs, and that's that. I believe the Avs could use another forward, though, for the 3rd line. I'm not convinced (if we get a 2C) that a Newhook - ERod - Compher 3rd line can be successful come playoffs.
He should be traded. Unless the prospect is ready to go right from the box like Makar he won't progress under Bednar (see Jost, Compher etc).
Playing him at center is precisely what's destroying his confidence. I wouldn't mind sitting him but I'm not sure there's enough healthy bodies to even do that.
Move him to the wing FFS, let Rodrigues have a go at it. If that fails, then try Rants out at C. But this experiment HAS to end.
Vaslof
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henchman21
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There is a pretty strong correlation between high danger chances and shooting percentage... for obvious reasons. Avs are producing in the mid 11s 5v5 per game and that actually isn't any different than last year. I would say odds are that shooting percentage will go up. Given the number of shots the Avs typically have, it is probably unlikely to surpass 9... but that is in the realm of possibility. It should be noted that a larger part of the shooting percentage drop is due to depth rather than the top guys. Top guys are down about 1-1.5%, depth guys are down a lot more. Also to that the PP is clipping at a 22-23% rate and last year that rate was ~15%.
The percentage splits of this is the core of the issue, and we've been complaining about this pretty much all year. The coverage... the Avs have typically been in the 9-11 HDCA given up per game over the years (last year was actually worse than previous years). This year they are giving up almost 13 HDCA per game. The heatmaps show the Avs are giving up the middle of the ice a lot more. Puck on stick time is also down dramatically. The Avs are playing much, much worse defense than in years past. You can probably come up with a number of reasons, but one prevalent theory is that the Avs don't have the ice tilting when the top line isn't out causing them to cover more and tiring them out instead of the other team.
On the save percentage part, 5v5 the Avs are over 95%. The high last year was Canucks at 93%. Kuemper played well for the most part and the Avs were at 92.5%. So the regression there is very likely to happen. Outside extremes, PDO isn't the greatest measure in the world, but Avs are 101.8 right now. That is not impossible to sustain, but basically in the realm of being 2nd-4th in the league and I could be wrong, but I don't think 102.5+ has been held more than twice in the past 15 years. Not even the 13-14 Avs were that high. An improvement from the current 5v5 mix is rather unlikely.
dahrougem2
Registered User
For me what it comes down to is the Avs as presently constructed given their injuries + lack of depth are right where they should be analytically. They don't have a 2nd line that can dictate play and every other line has been bumped up due to that. Shooting percentage and save percentage levelling out in opposite directions IMO is not going to have a drastic effect on this team's record given what we're currently seeing. It's likely to stay the same as it is where the Avs are battling for 2/3 in the Central or WC1 spot.
When I'll judge this team is Landeskog's return. That is going to make a massive difference. Part of me also wonders if the Avs have it in mind to make him the 2C when he returns and play Newhook on his wing with Nichushkin. I don't think that'd be smart to do, but it's something I haven't thought of prior to just now.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Newhook has been playing wing.
Agreed... he simply doesn't have the right skill set for center and forcing the square peg in a round hole made things worse. Kid looks completely lost out there right now.
Also can we give up this bulking up being automatically good idea? Newhook bulking up was a mistake. It doesn't make him stronger on the boards or in battles (I'd argue weaker) and further levels the field against his skating. He needs to slim down. Get him back under 190 ASAP and into the low 180s soon.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Depends on which you are looking at, but yeah... middle 10 of the league in most things makes sense right now. I would say there is a higher risk of goaltending weakening (as it is the most outside the league normal) and offensive/defensive play saying roughly the same than anything else, but those playoff ranges are my expectation.
What I think my difference and complaints come from is that I expect a top 5-10 team, and by the end of the season, want them humming as a clear top 5 team. With the future issues facing the team, they really need to try to win now. Alongside that, struggling with some depth shouldn't give coverage to the complete lack of defensive zone coverage and breakdowns. IMO the Avs need to show that even if they aren't clicking offensively, that they can shutdown some teams. Last year they seemed to do it off possession, this year they can't do that to nearly the extent (and unlikely even when fully healthy), so the coverage simply has to improve from here.
I really don't think they have any desire for Landy at center. They could have tried that a million times by now and really never do. Rants is the guy to move there, and IMO he should move there ASAP.
TruePowerSlave
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Newjost looks brutal. Some voodoo priest must have cursed the Avs picks after the top 10.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
Bo Horvat is at a decent age right now. Bo Horvat can play in any situation be it Powerplay, Penalty Kill and is trustworthy in the final minute of games. Bo Horvat can win faceoffs. I dont know his percentage this season but everytime I watch him he seems to win more then he loses in the defensive zone. Bo Horvat can keep up with anyone on the roster so the Avs fast style of play wont hurt him. Bo Horvat is the man this team needs if they want to continue to try for Cups moving forward with this core.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
I can see them doing this for sure. I rather they put Landy with Mack and Mikko because those two seem to be clueless in their end giving up a ton of chances game in game out. Landy carries that line defensively and its damn near impossible not to notice when hes out of the line up. Lehkonen cant carry the defensive burden for that line the way Landy can.
I'd really like to have a word with whomever the fitness/training guy is for the Avs. Because if he's the guy who told Jost to bulk up, Sammy to bulk up, and now Newhook, he needs to be fired tomorrow.
Foppberg
Registered User
@Pokecheque ^ MacKinnon too.
I really, really wish we could've kept Naz. 7M isn't a crazy number, he fits with the team, drives the Blues/Binnington crazy, Denver was the perfect spot for him.
He'd be expensive to re-sign though. If Newhook were moved the guy coming back would have to be re-upped IMO.
I really, really wish we could've kept Naz. 7M isn't a crazy number, he fits with the team, drives the Blues/Binnington crazy, Denver was the perfect spot for him.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
Its middle of November and Newhook at Centre is getting worse and worse to the point where he was benched for nearly the entire game minus a few shifts with the 4th line and the final minute of last nights game. Enough is is enough with him at C. Maybe give it a try again when the team is healthy but right now this shit needs to stop.
They could have made it work but they more or less chose Manson over him. A move that @Pierce Hawthorne was thrilled with.
Foppberg
Registered User
I was really happy to have Manson back too.
But now ... not so much. Naz is a much harder piece to find, and we have an embarrassment of riches on defense.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Yeah I have zero idea why this is a thing.. even in hockey in general. I hear it all the damn time and it simply needs to die. Players should play at the bottom 25-50% of their natural weight range. You can find some rare, supremely athletic examples (Mikko being one) where players can play at heavier weights... but they are more rare than commonplace. Add to that how fast the NHL is getting, you can't afford to lose that edge.
It will be the move we all look back at in 4-5 years as being the move that ended our chances to win another cup.
Just so f***ing dumb and stupid from our management.
Is MacKinnon really the guy telling people to bulk up though? Seems like he wants people to slim down, which is what guys like Nichushkin and Calvert did, and lo and behold both ended up having career seasons.
Foppberg
Registered User
No, I'm just saying he was also a guy that bulked up and then ended up slimming way down. Year 2 (or 3?) MacKinnon was a thicc boy.
