Regarding Robertson- I don’t think Nill, careful as he is is, does this deal and messes with his cap if he’s not sure either A) the deal is really close or B) he’s got a deal to move money ready.
I'm definitely starting to wonder if there is a very real, likely possibility that Thomas Harley gets the Jake Oettinger treatment. Jake likely should never have played in the AHL last season, but the cap and contracts dictated that he start there. Harley is a year younger than Lundkvist, and it's not honestly entirely similar to the Oettinger situation. Jake played fairly well and was easily the better option. Harley had some good games, some OK games, and some bad games. The only reason he seemed like a lock for the roster was his draft status and a big need that now can also be filled by Lundkvist.
I still don't agree that Dallas is down on Harley and this trade is any indication of that, but I do agree with you that Nill doesn't back himself in a corner ever, and we know he'll gladly put a guy in the AHL even if they're for sure ready or just potentially ready. Harley absolutely wouldn't be hurt by more AHL time, and now you have two quality puck movers in the pipeline that are close to NHL-ready rather than one.
The math even suggests that Harley is likely destined for the AHL.
Much of what Nill said recently ... hell the fact he was even willing to talk about negotiations, suggests that both sides were close. If anything, now that we know this deal was in the works, it honestly makes sense that they may have been waiting to see what happened here before moving forward.
Why? Those assets would have likely been needed to shed salary to sign Robertson to a long-term deal. We already knew a long-term deal was unlikely, but moving salary meant it was on the table. You can't pay assets, likely at minimum a 2nd in 2023, when you've already lost your 1st rounder. A long-term deal virtually has to be considered impossible now.
This further moves the negotiation towards resolution. Both sides understand there's only a bridge deal to be made. They have more than enough money to do that by carrying 13 forwards and 7 D (Harley in the AHL).
I don't think Blumel will be the rookie to make the team, but he has the highest salary of the ELC's. That's why I used his number. I assume the 13th forward would be one of the league minimum guys like Studenic or Olfosson.
I would not be shocked to see a 3-year extension in the $7.5 million range announced tomorrow now that this business is behind Dallas.