By all accounts, McDavid was playing injured and looked like garbage (relatively) for the first what, third of the season? Kucherov and MacKinnon have been firing on all cylinders for pretty much all season. Yet despite all that, McDavid still has a very good chance of finishing with more points than both of them. It's not a knock on Mack or Kuch. It's just a statement to how crazy ridiculous McDavid is offensively, especially when you factor in his snake bitten shooting %.
Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy
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Friendly reminder that MacK still hasn't had his yearly 5-10 game injury. This is a 2 horse race between Kucherov and McJesus for that fact alone.
VainGretzky
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I think Mac And McDavid will pull away from Kuch's last 20 games their speed is going to expose a lot of tired Dman legs down the stretch
Connor McConnor
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It’s a 1 horse race. McDavid has already closed a 20+ point gap, has games in hand, and is several tiers above both to begin with.
Hey I'm with you. McJesus is in a tier of his own. Bolts might just setup Kucherov for some easy points though. I have the final order as McJesus-Kucherov-MacK.
There's a lot that's not quite true here. 1) I don't think McDavid was playing injured, he just had a slow start. He definitely didn't look like garbage at any point, let alone the first 3rd of the season....he had 40pts after 25 games. Maybe you can look at the first 11 games where he only had 10 points....which is quite good, but perhaps garbage for him. 2) Probably not fair to say that McDavid got behind the 8 ball early, so what he's doing is even better since Mack and Kucherov have been firing on all cylinders all season.....Mack had 11pts through 11 games and 34 points through 25 games....how does that compare to McDavid?
Kucherov was bit hotter from the start, but not a huge advantage....he had 11pts through 10 games, but then scored 5pts in 11th game.....he was sitting at 42pts through 25 games....so only 2 ahead of McDavid through first third of the season.
With this little games to go, any one of them could win. I'd have McDavid as the favourite, but maybe like 40-30-30 in percentages.
McDavid was at a point per game for the first 16 games before putting up 12 points in his next 3 games. By the 1/3 mark, he was already over 1.5 PPG. But really, he was injured after game 5 (at which point he had 8 points), so it was only really 11 games where he wasn’t himself and had 8 points. But MacKinnon had a slow start too and had 9 in his first 10 games. And after 18 games, McDavid had a 2 point lead on MacKinnon. It’s been impressive he’s done this with his injury where he probably should have sat for longer, but the comeback isn’t what it’s made out to be because McDavid’s two missed games and Edmonton being behind in games played made it look bigger. Even Kucherov was only 3 points ahead after 18 games.
snag
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He missed 2 games at the start of the season with an upper body injury that was anticipated to see him out up to 2 weeks. No matter which way you slice it, he wasn't 100% for 100% of the season. And his 75% might still exceed many players 100% so I guess "garbage" is subjective
He has a good chance, but there is significant exaggeration there. He hasn't closed a 20+ point gap....I could be wrong, but I think the biggest gap was 19 pts vs. Kuch and 17pts vs. Mack when he had 8 games in hand.....gap is down to 6pts for both now.....so he closed a 11-13pt gap, but burned through some games in hand, so he's down to 3 of those now.
He was injured and missed games from it then came back and clearly wasn’t skating like he normal. He couldn’t pull away from defenders. He was definitely injured for a bit. It certainly wasn’t the first 1/3 of the season though. It was around 10 games
Connor McConnor
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No single player is ever 100% for 100% of the season though....just doesn't happen. Either way, not really the subject here....my point is that McDavid has definitely been on a red hot streak the past 20+ games, but the rise through the scoring list isn't quite as dramatic as it seems due to games in hand that he's made up vs. others. If all 3 continue to pace at their past 20 game pace, McDavid wins though (I assume....I didn't check Kuch and Mack pace over that period....but's it's gotta be quite a bit lower)....on the season they are all pretty close in PPG though....so we'll see what happens and competition they have to play will be part of this.....sometimes if you are playing a really strong team near the end, they have nothing to play for, so perhaps easier to score vs. a team fighting for their lives....so that's always a tough read as well.He missed 2 games at the start of the season with an upper body injury that was anticipated to see him out up to 2 weeks. No matter which way you slice it, he wasn't 100% for 100% of the season. And his 75% might still exceed many players 100% so I guess "garbage" is subjective
Thanks for the correction, but care to clarify? EDIT: I went back and checked and he was 22pts back towards the end of January, but same comments....he hasn't closed a 20+ point gap and the amount of gap he's closed is somewhat misleading due to burning through some games in hand.
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Video Nasty
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For the people who are also forgetting what actually happened during a season that is still in progress and to any people from the future looking back to see how things actually unfolded as it happened, I'm going to break it down into progression bullet points for clarity.
1. McDavid and the Oilers started slow and looked bad doing so right off the bat this season. Being the elite talent that he is, McDavid can still put up points while starting slow, as evidenced by the 8 he had through his first 5 games, which just about lines up with his PPG for his past 400 games entering this season. I do not believe he was injured. It was simply a bad start by the Oilers from top to bottom.
2. McDavid sustained an upper body injury in that fifth game. He didn't play the final four minutes of regulation or overtime.
3. He was expected to miss up to 2 weeks which was 5-6 games on the Oilers schedule.
4. After losing in overtime during the game he exited, the Oilers lost their next two games badly, pushing their record down to 1-5-1. Panic mode began to set in. The Heritage Classic against the Flames was the next game and with the Oilers threatening to free fall, McDavid was brought back early after just two missed games.
5. McDavid had an assist in his return game win. Again, the guy can put up points even when not looking right.
6. The free fall continued with 4 straight losses and a fired coach by the end of it. McDavid went pointless in 4 of his next 5 games. For reference, he had notched at least a point in 65 of his previous 68 regular season games. He then had 3 points in his next 3 and 6 in 5.
7. I watched most of these games, as did others who watched them all. It's not necessarily just about what he was or wasn't doing in regards to putting up points. McDavid did not look remotely like himself. He didn't have his speed and for a player who easily draws your eyes immediately to him any moment he's on the ice, he was as close to invisible as one could be. He very clearly looked like a guy who got injured, felt an obligation to come back early because the team is directionless without him, and then played through said injury when he would have been better served sitting out a few more games and another week to properly heal.
8. I've used Jack Hughes as an example before. He suffered an upper body injury early on as well (shoulder I believe). He was able to rest the prescribed two weeks because a.) The Devils were 6-4 and b.) They were believed to be a better team than they are and were still hopeful early on. There was no mad rush to get him back, nor was there with his second injury in early January that kept him out a month (The Devils were 21-14-2 when he left, still in decent shape).
9. The turnaround for both the Oilers and McDavid began the day this thread was started. There's still been stretches of time where even though McDavid has 83 points in his last 42 games, I've wondered if something is still ailing him because of his extreme aversion to shooting at times, but I'm not willing to dig down in that speculation.
In conclusion, McDavid looked absolutely terrible and not himself for a few weeks after his early return from injury. He looked like exactly what he was: a player "forced" to come back earlier than expected because his team was in dire straights so quickly into the season and thus playing through an injury not allowed to properly heal.
The great thing about McDavid is that he has usually proven that by the end, we don't need to rely on the crutches of excuses and what ifs. He went through all that and I trust that he'll still win the Art Ross, and depending on how voters feel about the narrative, could very well win another Hart.
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jigglysquishy
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I agree.
McDavid will almost certainly miss the last game of the season. An away back-to-back. Likely have no implications on playoff matchups. And would be third game in four days. The Oilers play five games in the last seven days of the season.
He might miss the game on the 17th as well in Arizona. Then he can get some rest as the playoffs start soon afterwards.
It's likely the west playoff matchups are locked up at the start of this 5-in-7. So outside the Art Ross, there's nothing for McDavid. He will sit one or more games.
Mackinnon will likely miss that last game too. But for both players, they will miss at least one game for rest.
McDavid never takes games off, historically he never has anyways. Always refused it, he wants to play every game possible.
snag
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That's not what I am saying. In response to your saying "I don't think McDavid was playing injured, he just had a slow start." I am saying he was injured and he came back early and played through it.
Something was definitely off both with his skating and handling the puck and it was noticeable. He also missed 2 games due to injury before coming back and having those issues. He was still able to play but he was projected to miss a few weeks and only missed 2 games. Regardless he is still in the race and having another great season where he could end up doing things only a few players in NHL history have done.
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That’s all conjecture though. Nothing has been confirmed one way or another. As a result people can believe what they want. No need to fuss about it.
snag
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Video Nasty
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We have no way of knowing this yet. Yes, if playoff seeding is locked up, like it was in 2021-2022, they will probably rest him. I especially don't see anyone sitting for Game 81.
As of now, they could be chasing down Vancouver for the division and perhaps even the #1 seed in the West through the end of the season. If either are on the line, they won't be resting.
I understand the Oilers condensed schedule to close out the final quarter of the season, but they'll get a minimum of 3 full days before any playoff game. If they are still riding direct momentum entering the postseason, I also question taking the last game off against Colorado, who may very well be battling for any of the top three spots in their own division.
Do you think they skip games if they are within a point or 2 or 3 of a scoring title though? All players will say they care more about winning then individual stats, but I can’t see a guy skipping a game to ret if it means he loses a chance to win a scoring title….you have to have an ego to play at that level, so would be surprised if their egos let them do that
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