Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Mcdavid Gets 4 points to make the fan bois happy then kuch puts up 2 points to make it not a big deal. 18 point lead....

 

[AvsFan29]

If Kucherov cools down and scores at a 1.3 ppg clip for the rest of the way he'll finish with 126 points.
If McDavid continues at 1.7 ppg (he's at 1.75 since Nov 13th) he'll finish at 130 points.

That would be cool, except (Since Nov 13th) Kucherov matches that pace, and Mackinnon blows it out of the water with 1.92ppg.

Not only is McDavid not gaining in this race, he's losing pace.

 

[Bartleby]

a true samurai does not unsheath his sword for the amusement of the public

As I just posted on the Bolts board, his performance last night reminded me of this scene from Butch Cassidy. While Kuch can play 3D chess when most everyone else on the ice is playing checkers, he has to do it at speed and/or while reacting to a defense. That setup last night just wasn't going to work for him.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

kucherov is the best, OP

 

[Video Nasty]

It is a little crazy how these schedules were constructed.

The Oilers have been behind the Lightning and Avs by 5 or 6 games played for months now. Both have played the most games, while the Oilers have played the least up to this point. I vaguely remember Ottawa having played like 5 less games than everyone else at an earlier point this season and they have even played a game more than the Oilers now.

It’s a little hard to get a read on the true ground that McDavid has to make up, or the lead Kucherov and MacKinnon need to pad conversely.

The Oilers have a back to back starting tonight and even then, the Avs and Lightning will be playing yet again tomorrow as well. It will be the Avs 4th game since the return from break.

Either way, this is finally the start of the Oilers playing more frequently and the picture getting a little clearer. They’ll play 5 more games than the Lightning through the end of March and 4 more than the Avs during the same time frame.

Going to be an exciting final couple of months, no matter how it unfolds.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

It is a little crazy how these schedules were constructed.

The Oilers have been behind the Lightning and Avs by 5 or 6 games played for months now. Both have played the most games, while the Oilers have played the least up to this point. I vaguely remember Ottawa having played like 5 less games than everyone else at an earlier point this season and they have even played a game more than the Oilers now.

It’s a little hard to get a read on the true ground that McDavid has to make up, or the lead Kucherov and MacKinnon need to pad conversely.

The Oilers have a back to back starting tonight and even then, the Avs and Lightning will be playing yet again tomorrow as well. It will be the Avs 4th game since the return from break.

Either way, this is finally the start of the Oilers playing more frequently and the picture getting a little clearer. They’ll play 5 more games than the Lightning through the end of March and 4 more than the Avs during the same time frame.

Going to be an exciting final couple of months, no matter how it unfolds.

19 more points in 5 more games is pretty damn clear

 

[thegazelle]

While I am a McDavid fan, I am glad to see Kucherov doing well. His consistency is admirable and seemingly win or lose, he ends up contributing positively on the scoresheet in one way or another. I would love to see him win the Art Ross, though equally delighted if MacKinnon takes it. I have some of his rookie cards that are hoping that is the case.

 

[Video Nasty]

19 more points in 5 more games is pretty damn clear

Kucherov has played 7 more games and McDavid has 6 in hand. Interesting how your argument doesn't track though whenever we talk about Lemieux and Crosby though.

 

[crowfish]

It's been a frustrating year as someone rooting for McDavid to do well

-An early season injury slowed his pace down to the lowest since rookie year

-A weird schedule where the Oilers never seem to be playing, lots of long breaks in between games

-Oilers games have been getting officiated like game 7s all year long. Refs letting a lot of stuff slide on both sides. Explain how a team with McDrai is bottom 5 in the league in powerplay time?

-Oilers have had terrible finishing all year. Just in the Vegas game alone McDavid hits a post, sets up Bouchard for post, sets up Draisaitl for tap in and he misses. McDavid would have 5-10 more points with normal finishing imo.

-They have gotten "Goalied" several times, even by lower-tier goalies

But hey, at least Nathaniel is enjoying himself!

 

[WalterLundy]

19 more points in 5 more games is pretty damn clear

I think this is going to go down as Kucherov’s true peak season. Been playing amazing and I think he’s going to win it. Keep in mind though that last year he was beaten by 40 points in the same GP. Doing that to Kucherov is nothing to scoff at. As big of a fan of the pens as I am I genuinely don’t know 100% that Crosby at his best outproduces this version of Kucherov. I’m genuinely interested to hear your opinion on this. Do you believe that Crosby at his best 100% outproduces the 1.71 we are seeing at the moment? If so by how much?

 

[authentic]

I think this is going to go down as Kucherov’s true peak season. Been playing amazing and I think he’s going to win it. Keep in mind though that last year he was beaten by 40 points in the same GP. Doing that to Kucherov is nothing to scoff at. As big of a fan of the pens as I am I genuinely don’t know 100% that Crosby at his best outproduces this version of Kucherov. I’m genuinely interested to hear your opinion on this. Do you believe that Crosby at his best 100% outproduces the 1.71 we are seeing at the moment? If so by how much?

I would say yes.

Here’s this years scoring race after Kucherov played 41 games. 67 points and same for MacKinnon in 42 games.

NHL Stats

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Now here’s Crosby during part of his peak in 2010-11. 66 points in 41 games. No one really keeping pace with him there and he also had 32 goals already by that point and he also did so with far inferior linemates.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Of course Kucherov has upped his pace since then but I have a hard time seeing Crosby not being able to add .05 points per game to his pace when scoring is .3 goals higher per game. At the very least Kucherov would probably be pretty close to peak Crosby offensively which is pretty amazing. Never really thought he would approach that peak he had back in 2018-19 again.

 

[WalterLundy]

I would say yes.

Here’s this years scoring race after Kucherov played 41 games. 67 points and same for MacKinnon in 42 games.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Now here’s Crosby during part of his peak in 2010-11. 66 points in 41 games. No one really keeping pace with him there and he also had 32 goals already by that point and he also did so with far inferior linemates.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Of course Kucherov has upped his pace since then but I have a hard time seeing Crosby not being able to add .05 points per game to his pace when scoring is .3 goals higher per game. At the very least Kucherov would probably be pretty close to peak Crosby offensively which is pretty amazing. Never really thought he would approach that peak he had back in 2018-19 again.

Yeah for sure this isn’t a knock on Crosby but more so to highlight how Kucherov is a special player.

If we simply look at the 2.79 goals per game in 2011 and 3.10 as of now we see that Crosby’s 132 pace goes up to 146-147 in a full 82 games. Kucherov being at a 140 in 82 games pace right now shows that even when we adjust and use fake numbers the gap is not large. Plus Kucherov was just recently at 1.73 or 142/82 GP pace through 48 games.

Kucherov also in 2018-19 had 69 points in 41 games for a 138 pace. 3.01 G/GP that year. Crosby’s 66 in 41 in 2011 at 2.79 G/GP would be equivalent to 71 in 41 or 142 pace. Either way we are only looking at a very small gap that would be very hard to be sure about at least in my mind. Especially considering that with adjustments they shouldn’t be taken even close to 100% seriously and it’s still a razor thin margin.

The only thing I was trying to convey is that Kucherov’s level of production is right there in the same range as what people would think a peak Sid would be putting up now. That and when you consider it all I can’t truly bet 100% that Crosby would win a hypothetical peak v peak ross race against Kucherov. Not arguing Crosby isn’t a clearly better player overall just that peak production is close.

 

[daver]

Yeah for sure this isn’t a knock on Crosby but more so to highlight how Kucherov is a special player.

If we simply look at the 2.79 goals per game in 2011 and 3.10 as of now we see that Crosby’s 132 pace goes up to 146-147 in a full 82 games. Kucherov being at a 140 in 82 games pace right now shows that even when we adjust and use fake numbers the gap is not large. Plus Kucherov was just recently at 1.73 or 142/82 GP pace through 48 games.

Kucherov also in 2018-19 had 69 points in 41 games for a 138 pace. 3.01 G/GP that year. Crosby’s 66 in 41 in 2011 at 2.79 G/GP would be equivalent to 71 in 41 or 142 pace. Either way we are only looking at a very small gap that would be very hard to be sure about at least in my mind. Especially considering that with adjustments they shouldn’t be taken even close to 100% seriously and it’s still a razor thin margin.

The only thing I was trying to convey is that Kucherov’s level of production is right there in the same range as what people would think a peak Sid would be putting up now. That and when you consider it all I can’t truly bet 100% that Crosby would win a hypothetical peak v peak ross race against Kucherov. Not arguing Crosby isn’t a clearly better player overall just that peak production is close.

Crosby was farther ahead of the other elite forwards than Kucherov.

League GPG is meaningless in player comparisons.

 

[WalterLundy]

Crosby was farther ahead of the other elite forwards than Kucherov.

League GPG is meaningless in player comparisons.

Couldn’t agree more. I think league goals per game is just as absurd as you do. I only used them because a lot of the people here think they are useful. Just being courteous. You can try by going with the second through 10th best or 20th best per year for ppg and average them out to see what the best guys in the league per year were averaging. That would be a better way but even that is flawed.

I will say I think MacKinnon is better than Stamkos but I get what you are saying. We are left with that style of comparison but the raw totals would lean in Kucherov’s favor. And like I said prior even with fake stats it’s a razor thin margin. Just hard for me to see 100% guaranteed victory for Crosby in the peak vs peak ross race hypothetical.

 

[authentic]

Couldn’t agree more. I think league goals per game is just as absurd as you do. I only used them because a lot of the people here think they are useful. Just being courteous. You can try by going with the second through 10th best or 20th best per year for ppg and average them out to see what the best guys in the league per year were averaging. That would be a better way but even that is flawed.

I will say I think MacKinnon is better than Stamkos but I get what you are saying. We are left with that style of comparison but the raw totals would lean in Kucherov’s favor. And like I said prior even with fake stats it’s a razor thin margin. Just hard for me to see 100% guaranteed victory for Crosby in the peak vs peak ross race hypothetical.

That’s a better method but usually league goals per game lines up accurately enough with how much the top players score, just as it does in this comparison.

Off the top of my head scoring being roughly 9.5% higher I bet you could compare the top scorers in 2011 and 2024 from 1-30 and see roughly the same difference.

If I was comparing recent seasons to the dead puck era or a 1970s or 80s season then vs. X is much better to look at, basically seasons where there were notable advantages for one crop of top scorers in powerplay time/ice time and/or depth players scoring more or less.

Now, I get the idea that you consider these fake numbers, and you’re not technically wrong but like I say those numbers usually give us a better idea of how players from different seasons compare to another, though I will add that Crosby did actually score 120 points in 79 games as a 19 year old, and with a larger gap over his competition after 51 games

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

.4 points per game over the #2 scorer (14 points ahead with 5 less games played) and .49 points per game over the 9th and 10th scorers.

 

[WalterLundy]

That’s a better method but usually league goals per game lines up accurately enough with how much the top players score, just as it does in this comparison.

Off the top of my head scoring being roughly 9.5% higher I bet you could compare the top scorers in 2011 and 2024 from 1-30 and see roughly the same difference.

If I was comparing recent seasons to the dead puck era or a 1970s or 80s season then vs. X is much better to look at, basically seasons where there were notable advantages for one crop of top scorers in powerplay time/ice time and/or depth players scoring more or less.

Now, I get the idea that you consider these fake numbers, and you’re not technically wrong but like I say those numbers usually give us a better idea of how players from different seasons compare to another, though I will add that Crosby did actually score 120 points in 79 games as a 19 year old, and with a larger gap over his competition after 51 games

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

.4 points per game over the #2 scorer (14 points ahead with 5 less games played) and .49 points per game over the 9th and 10th scorers.

I don’t disagree with any of the points. I’m sure you can see my view as well that even if Crosby were to win the hypothetical Ross race it would be very close (I agree he’d win and probably 60/40 chance).

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

I don’t disagree with any of the points. I’m sure you can see my view as well that even if Crosby were to win the hypothetical Ross race it would be very close (I agree he’d win and probably 60/40 chance).

There was no 3 on 3 in crosbys peak and goalie equipment was bigger

 

[WarriorofTime]

Crosby was farther ahead of the other elite forwards than Kucherov.

League GPG is meaningless in player comparisons.

Crosby was 10 ahead of the next guy and then got hurt, if his shooting % was at its career mark, he'd have about 8.5 less goals. Kucherov and Mackinnon are tied and then tied ahead of the next ugy.

League GPG is extremely relevant. Why wouldn't it be? That only helps Crosby's case for how low scoring the league was then.

 

[Master P]

Kuch with 2 pts tonight, puts him at 89.

 

[ViD]

Kuch with 2 pts tonight, puts him at 89.

100 points next weekend ?

 

[kugelbahn]

MacKey is on 3 games points drought, but race is still very tight.
It could be decided in last games:
TOR-TBL Apr 17
EDM-COL Apr 18 (and COL might clinch and rest players)

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Mcdavid with a donutm

 

[RDTBay4]

Kucherov should win but won't.

He loses 5 points because he's Russian,
He loses 5 points because he plays for the Lightning.
He loses 5 points because he's not Canadian. (I already said that, but it's a thing)
If there's any doubt, he also doesn't try to look like MacDavidon, 100% disqualified.,

 

[RussianGuyovich]

kuch is at 90, and is here to burn down your mackinnon

 

[Straight Fire]

I've still got to give my vote to Kucherov.