Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[AppreciateHockey]

Well, for ´simple´ EN points Kucherov often makes tough plays to get them. In the last couple of games I have twice seen him pass it perfectly by banking it off the boards in a tight spot.

I would not want to be Hart voter this year. I expect to see obvious bias and politics though.

Edit: And how in the heck is MacKinnon still sprinting around like its the 5th game of the season. I'm gonna check out his chickpea fad, looks good.

I wonder if both Kuch and Mac have been playing playoff hockey all year and perhaps fizzle out in the playoffs or if they have another gear.

 

[NatusVincere]

At season start TSN had all of the Avs stars in their top 10 best players (3 and 4 for Mac and Mak)… Kuch was only at 8: King Connor McDavid continues his reign atop TSN Top 50 NHL Players poll - TSN.ca

At midseason people on hf were debating if Makar is even better than Mac, almost 40% voted for Makar: Who's the better player? MacKinnon or Makar?

Now some smart experts want to tell us that Kuch is the one with better support around him and we should count the 4/5 best players on each team… while Stamkos isn’t even playing with Kuch besides the PP. But Mac is playing with Makar and Rantanen on the very same line. With Drouin/Nuke (especially how Drouin is playing the last weeks/months) on the other wing, MacKinnon has in reality one if not the best supporting cast in the whole league.

Of course Kuch himself isn't playing with scrubs but it’s really crazy to pretend Mac has less support with a b2b 100 point winger and Cale aka “the next Bobby Orr” Makar on his side, whose 87 would lead Tampa in points if not for Kuch.

 

[daver]

The last time that he missed out on the Ross was when he returned from a significant knee injury that happened at the tail end of the previous season. He was fortunate not to miss a ton of time since it wasn't early or even mid season but much like this season he wasn't at 100%. He has been pretty fortunate injury wise over his career but he has had 2 doozies in terms of his collar bone and his knee. Whatever his issue(s) have been this season he has been able to play through them even though it's clear that he hasn't been 100% or really even close to it this season.

A healthy Crosby maybe wins the Ross in 16/17.

MacKinnon maybe beats McDavid in 17/18 if not for injuries.

A healthy Kucherov or a healthy MacKinnon maybe wins the Ross in 21/22.

He has been more fortunate than his competion with injuries.

 

[Calderon]

At season start TSN had all of the Avs stars in their top 10 best players (3 and 4 for Mac and Mak)… Kuch was only at 8: King Connor McDavid continues his reign atop TSN Top 50 NHL Players poll - TSN.ca

At midseason people on hf were debating if Makar is even better than Mac, almost 40% voted for Makar: Who's the better player? MacKinnon or Makar?

Now some smart experts want to tell us that Kuch is the one with better support around him and we should count the 4/5 best players on each team… while Stamkos isn’t even playing with Kuch besides the PP. But Mac is playing with Makar and Rantanen on the very same line. With Drouin/Nuke (especially how Drouin is playing the last weeks/months) on the other wing, MacKinnon has in reality one if not the best supporting cast in the whole league.

Of course Kuch himself isn't playing with scrubs but it’s really crazy to pretend Mac has less support with a b2b 100 point winger and Cale aka “the next Bobby Orr” Makar on his side, whose 87 would lead Tampa in points if not for Kuch.

Some time during last season or maybe start of this season I was thinking to myself whether MacKinnon really is that much better than Rantanen, with time frames like the fall of 2018 (Rantanen leading the league in scoring while Nate was keeping up with a few of points behind) and a stretch in last (or previous) season when Mack was out and Rantanen took over the 1C and dominated in my mind. Then it's this past fall, Rantanen 17 pts vs. Mack 11 pts., what gives?

Now then, MacKinnon has left Rants in the dust with a 30+ point cushion and, more perplexingly, a 17 goal difference in plus minus even though they mainly play in the same line.

Now he's having a hell of a season. If this is his peak (which is likely, all things considered), it's pretty glorious. EV merchant delivering with insane drive.

 

[authentic]

Pretty crazy how he really is going to score over 140 and possibly close to 150 points. Never really thought he would score more than the 128 he had, even with scoring rising a little.

 

[bobholly39]

Well, for ´simple´ EN points Kucherov often makes tough plays to get them. In the last couple of games I have twice seen him pass it perfectly by banking it off the boards in a tight spot.

I would not want to be Hart voter this year. I expect to see obvious bias and politics though.

Edit: And how in the heck is MacKinnon still sprinting around like its the 5th game of the season. I'm gonna check out his chickpea fad, looks good.

I wonder if both Kuch and Mac have been playing playoff hockey all year and perhaps fizzle out in the playoffs or if they have another gear.

I fear that some people are going to hold empty net points as a negative against Kucherov - but I really hope not. They're the most important points you can get as they pretty much guarantee a victory.

Pretty crazy how he really is going to score over 140 and possibly close to 150 points. Never really thought he would score more than the 128 he had, even with scoring rising a little.

And as good as he's been in the regular season, he's arguably even better in the playoffs.

It's weird how he gets so constantly underrated by some.

Is McDavid done? 9 points behind Kucherov and 7 behind MacK - and he doesn't hold the tie breaker (goals) against either/or.

He still has games in hands and some easy opponents on schedule - but I think at this point he may be officially out of the race for good.

I wouldn't be shocked to see him pot 6 points next game and prove me wrong though..

 

[Dingo]

100 assists seems to be losing its importance all of a sudden.

 

[Panteras]

Man I thought McJesus was the fastest skater with the puck but MacKinon is like Usain Bolt once that puck hits his stick. He’s electrifying.

 

[WalterLundy]

100 assists seems to be losing its importance all of a sudden.

No it hasn’t. It has happened twice outside of the greatest player (and playmaker) ever doing it routinely in his prime. The other two singular times it has happened were by the second and third best players ever. All of them were done in higher scoring environments than this current one as well.

Just because McDavid and Kucherov may both hit it doesn’t mean that it’s losing its value or importance. In terms of era adjustment both McDavid and Kucherov’s assists per game this year only trail the very best Gretzky seasons. Be thankful that you are watching history because this is amazing.

 

[tucker3434]

At season start TSN had all of the Avs stars in their top 10 best players (3 and 4 for Mac and Mak)… Kuch was only at 8: King Connor McDavid continues his reign atop TSN Top 50 NHL Players poll - TSN.ca

At midseason people on hf were debating if Makar is even better than Mac, almost 40% voted for Makar: Who's the better player? MacKinnon or Makar?

Now some smart experts want to tell us that Kuch is the one with better support around him and we should count the 4/5 best players on each team… while Stamkos isn’t even playing with Kuch besides the PP. But Mac is playing with Makar and Rantanen on the very same line. With Drouin/Nuke (especially how Drouin is playing the last weeks/months) on the other wing, MacKinnon has in reality one if not the best supporting cast in the whole league.

Of course Kuch himself isn't playing with scrubs but it’s really crazy to pretend Mac has less support with a b2b 100 point winger and Cale aka “the next Bobby Orr” Makar on his side, whose 87 would lead Tampa in points if not for Kuch.

Yes Rantanen is better than anyone other than Kucherov on the Lightning. Makar is out scoring Hedman by 11 points. But again, Kucherov leads in assists. Common sense tells us that MacKinnon’s advantage levels out somewhere. And it does. There’s a drop off after Makar at #3.

They’ve gotten roughly equal support statistically. Kucherov’s is just more spread out. I don’t even know why this is an argument. It’s a math problem.

 

[Dingo]

No it hasn’t. It has happened twice outside of the greatest player (and playmaker) ever doing it routinely in his prime. The other two singular times it has happened were by the second and third best players ever. All of them were done in higher scoring environments than this current one as well.

Just because McDavid and Kucherov may both hit it doesn’t mean that it’s losing its value or importance. In terms of era adjustment both McDavid and Kucherov’s assists per game this year only trail the very best Gretzky seasons. Be thankful that you are watching history because this is amazing.

i think its amazing. i have a feeling that many will suddenly not - if Kucherov hits it and McDingles stays injured and does not.

 

[Master P]

Well at least we now know that Mackinnon skating forwards is faster than Bogosian skating backwards.

 

[WalterLundy]

i think its amazing. i have a feeling that many will suddenly not - if Kucherov hits it and McDingles stays injured and does not.

That’s on them then honestly. If they view it that way they can always use the magical “pace” to make it alright. In that sense he was at least a 110 assist guy this year at his peak apg. As a pens fan I know that the best days of our stars are behind them so I try to enjoy the best talent in the league and watch as much as I can. Not sure why you personally dislike McDavid but I just enjoy watching him play and the only guys I’ve witnessed in my life better than he is are Gretzky and Mario.

I think both hit it which is honestly what I want. It’s been a while since I’ve seen talent flourish like this.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

It's been said ad nauseum - but what a scoring race.

 

[Miro4Norris]

MacKinnon needs a huge game to stay on the race with Kuch already 2 pts tonight. 4 point game incoming for Nate. You heard it first here

How many points should hockey gods (@Miro4Norris) give this guy for the next game?

 

[Toby91ca]

Yes Rantanen is better than anyone other than Kucherov on the Lightning. Makar is out scoring Hedman by 11 points. But again, Kucherov leads in assists. Common sense tells us that MacKinnon’s advantage levels out somewhere. And it does. There’s a drop off after Makar at #3.

They’ve gotten roughly equal support statistically. Kucherov’s is just more spread out. I don’t even know why this is an argument. It’s a math problem.

Totally agree, but a lot of people are blind to that, unfortunately, even the voters. They’ll salivate over Kucherov’s 53pt lead over #2 vs Mack’s 35pt lead, but will ignore Mack’s 81pt and 87pt lead over #4 and #5 vs Kucherov’s 63 and 67

 

[WarriorofTime]

Someone get Kucherov an “empty net merchant” shirt he can proudly display like he did the one on the cap a couple seasons ago.

 

[slapKing]

A healthy Crosby maybe wins the Ross in 16/17.

MacKinnon maybe beats McDavid in 17/18 if not for injuries.

A healthy Kucherov or a healthy MacKinnon maybe wins the Ross in 21/22.

He has been more fortunate than his competion with injuries.

Stop being a clown. McDavid won those are rosses. He also lead the league in PPG for those seasons, so it wasn't like the other players could have won. Just like this year, McDavid isn't the leading the league in PPG, so he doesn't have that excuse. All you can do is give your flowers to kucherov and MacKinnon this season, just like McDavid during those seasons.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

To update my previous post - after tonight's games, Kucherov is at 133 points (6 games remaining), MacKinnon is at 130 points (6 GR), and McDavid is at 126 points (8 GM).

My model currently has Kucherov as the favourite for the Art Ross (62%). McDavid is second (28%), and MacKinnon is third (21%).

Perhaps more accurately - the numbers above add up to more than 100% due to ties. McDavid is definitely going to finish last in goals. MacKinnon is very likely to finish ahead of Kucherov (it's not certain, but let's proceed on that assumption). Taking the Art Ross tiebreaker into account (more goals breaks the tie), the true percentages are 58% for Kucherov, 22% for McDavid, and 21% for MacKinnon.

Kucherov has a 71% chance of reaching 140 points. McDavid and MacKinnon are at 40% and 32% respectively. Kucherov and McDavid both have a 1% chance of getting to 150 points.

As I've mentioned before - this model is more accurate over large sample sizes. It doesn't adjust for the strength of any opponents. If one of these players faces an unusually easy (difficult) group of opponents during the final two weeks, their probabilities would actually be higher (lower).

The other question comes down to motivation (and coaching). The model assumes that each player is playing at their "true" talent level. Obviously, I can't predict if a player will be given a game or two to rest. Similarly, if one of these players gets a light 15 minutes in games 81 and/or 82, that would affect the probabilities, but there's no way to know that in advance.

This has been a fantastic race for the Art Ross trophies - one of the best in decades. As we enter the final two weeks of the season, Kucherov is the favourite, but McDavid and MacKinnon are still in it.

At this point, Kucherov is the clear favourite for the Art Ross, but it's not over yet:

Probability of a win (ties included):

• Kucherov: 83% (last week - 62%)
• MacKinnon: 15% (21%)
• McDavid: 12% (28%)

Probability of a win (no ties):

• Kucherov: 77% (58%)
• MacKinnon: 15% (21%)
• McDavid: 8% (22%)

These probabilities are based on the assumption that all players are healthy, motivated, and deployed normally. (If MacKinnon, for example, is allowed to skip game 82, that would lower his odds). I heard that McDavid may have a minor injury (which hasn't been factored into these calculations).

Based on the assumption that nobody misses time, the probabilities of reaching 140 points are as follows - Kucherov 99% (up from 71% last week), MacKinnon 68% (40%), and McDavid 45% (32%). All three have improved their odds over the past week - which is an indication of how well all three have been playing down the stretch.

Kucherov has a 3% chance of reaching 150 points (the other two are <1%).

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

What this season does is dispell the mcdavid is on the wayne mario level. 74 games for prime mcdavid would be more than enough. But hes been out pointed and out paced. As for 153 points last season. Doesnt look as shiny with kuch n mack set to land in the mid 140s

 

[WalterLundy]

What this season does is dispell the mcdavid is on the wayne mario level. 74 games for prime mcdavid would be more than enough. But hes been out pointed and out paced. As for 153 points last season. Doesnt look as shiny with kuch n mack set to land in the mid 140s

The only contemporary of Wayne and Mario’s that was capable of 140 in today’s environment and league is peak Jaromir Jagr. Just because we have top end talent flourishing and having all time seasons back to back years doesn’t diminish what happened in 2023 and 2021. It also ignores all context as it pertains to what McDavid dealt with this year. I don’t know many educated hockey fans who think McDavid is on Gretzky or Lemieux peak level. He is below them but his peak is the closest to Gretzky/Orr/Lemieux level since the expansion.

I promise you that you don’t have to worry about Lemieux ever being surpassed as an actual player by Connor McDavid. The only thing that could happen (not even guaranteed) is a better career because of the injuries.

 

[tucker3434]

Totally agree, but a lot of people are blind to that, unfortunately, even the voters. They’ll salivate over Kucherov’s 53pt lead over #2 vs Mack’s 35pt lead, but will ignore Mack’s 81pt and 87pt lead over #4 and #5 vs Kucherov’s 63 and 67

I think it’s a fan problem and not a voter problem. You’ll have some voters that will just pick the art ross winner. Anybody digging into the stats at all will see that the empty net differential is greater than the actual point differential, MacKinnon with more goals, more 5v5 points, etc. and I think that’s why MacKinnon has been a pretty heavy favorite despite the art ross race.

 

[BKarchitect]

All three have been forces of nature this second half of the year. I mean we are at the point where it seems like 2 point nights see you lose ground in the race.

Most years second and third place names disappear into the ether within a year but even though there will only be one trophy winner this year, I think the race itself has been something remarkable and could be one of those statistical markers remembered for some time.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

everybody going into granular details and stratifying points and im just over here thinking kuch is rad

 

[The Panther]

I'm a little disappointed that McDavid won't win his sixth Art Ross because to do so puts him up with the immortals -- Howe and Lemieux. But, I guess, he'll have more chances in the future...

I'm not sure how I feel about Kucherov's 15-or-whatever empty-net points. Of course, every top player gets his empty net points, but Kucherov's case is a bit weird -- he was already racking up near-record numbers of EN points before this past month, when the Lightning were still struggling for a wild-card playoff spot. In other words, despite facing relatively few empty nets (fewer, you'd think, than MacKinnon or McDavid), Kucherov was still getting huge numbers of empty-net points. In other words, there must have been some degree of a concerted Lightning effort (players and coach) to get him those EN points...

I guess I will feel better if MacKinnon finishes second in scoring because at least then Connor won't have lost his chance of Art Ross immortality due to EN points... admittedly, I bear some sour grapes, as you see.

Anyway, it's been quite a season for the high-end guys. Let's face it, we have no idea how the Hart voting will shake down. If Kucherov does make it to 100 assists (which now seems likely), I think his chances go way up and McDavid's go way down. Then, it's just a question of whether MacKinnon beats out Kucherov or not. If this was Kucherov's first Art Ross season, he'd almost certainly win it because voters look for a new narrative. But since he's already won before, I think the safer money is on MacKinnon now, who had been a bit hard-luck with the trophies to this point in his career...