Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[AndreRoy]

Technically speaking, Kucherov is having a career year, but let’s not pretend like he also doesn’t already have a 128 point season behind him also, lol. This isn’t some random season where he’s never had 100+ points before and then exploded out of nowhere. He’s previously gone head to head, and beat McDavid, in a points race already.

AND had another season where he was leading McDavid before letting off the gas in preparation for the playoffs and getting passed at the end. Not to mention two more prime seasons, one in which he missed all of the games and the other nearly half due to injury (but still scored at close to McDavid’s pace when he did play.)

Kucherov was a late bloomer compared to most other superstars and has had bad luck with injuries, but when healthy prime Kuch has been competitive with McDavid more often than not in the regular season (and of course easily surpasses him in terms of postseason accomplishments.)

 

[VinikToWinIt]

And if things dont go his way, he can always scream at the equipment manager and pout.

But hey, at least he's not being LTIRed this year, right?

At least Mack has the decency to cut out the middleman and take his screaming straight to the boss.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Oh no, only 128 points.

Good for third in scoring

 

[John Mandalorian]

At least Mack has the decency to cut out the middleman and take his screaming straight to the boss.

 

[WalterLundy]

Good for third in scoring

I know you aren’t a fan of McDavid’s due to pens fan connections but as a hockey fan first I think even you in this regard can admit that 128 in 73 (or 140 in 80) as your third best season is insane. I also think you’ll be interested in this. His season this year by the end will be good enough to have won the Art Ross in 26 of the last 30 seasons regular or adjusted. The only years he doesn’t win based off of his pace (which could go up) are 1996 to Lemieux/Jagr, 1999 to Jagr, and to himself in 2021 and 2023 (and this year as well but it is still very much undecided).

Plus the context that shows us that it took 112 in 57 games (arguably the best stretch of his career overall) after a career worst start and injury just to have a shot should be appreciated by any hockey fan regardless of affiliation.

If you dropped this version of McDavid into the 2014-15 environment for example he’d have 111 in 73 right now or a 125/82 pace. That would be 1.44X better than Jamie Benn that year and comparable to some of the most dominant Art Ross wins since Gretzky’s debut. As a matter of fact the only years since 1980 that would be as/more dominant over number 2 would be: 82 Gretzky: 1.44X, ‘83 Gretzky: 1.58, ‘84 Gretzky: 1.63, ‘85 Gretzky: 1.54, ‘86 Gretzky: 1.53, and ‘87 Gretzky: 1.69. That’s how much better McDavid’s third best season was than that hot garbage I remember so vividly 9 years ago. Benn’s Art Ross year in 2015 would be worth 101 in 82 games (1.23) in 2024. Just based off of that point per game he would be tied for 12th currently. Not all years are created equal.

 

[daver]

If you dropped this version of McDavid into the 2014-15 environment for example he’d have 111 in 73 right now or a 125/82 pace. That would be 1.44X better than Jamie Benn that year and comparable to some of the most dominant Art Ross wins since Gretzky’s debut. As a matter of fact the only years since 1980 that would be as/more dominant over number 2 would be: 82 Gretzky: 1.44X, ‘83 Gretzky: 1.58, ‘84 Gretzky: 1.63, ‘85 Gretzky: 1.54, ‘86 Gretzky: 1.53, and ‘87 Gretzky: 1.69. That’s how much better McDavid’s third best season was than that hot garbage I remember so vividly 9 years ago. Benn’s Art Ross year in 2015 would be worth 101 in 82 games (1.23) in 2024. Just based off of that point per game he would be tied for 12th currently. Not all years are created equal.

These comparisons make no sense. As you say "not all years are created equal".

That two other players are having era best seasons (three if you include Matthews goalscoring) this year may be an indication that easier scoring environments are conducive to superstar talent separating themselves. Lower scoring creates parity. We saw this from 01/02 to 03/04 and from 13/14 to 15/16.

McDavid has been on peak Jagr/peak Crosby level. Adjusting using league GPG is flawed and not taken seriously.

 

[Craig Ludwig]

AND had another season where he was leading McDavid before letting off the gas in preparation for the playoffs and getting passed at the end. Not to mention two more prime seasons, one in which he missed all of the games and the other nearly half due to injury (but still scored at close to McDavid’s pace when he did play.)

Kucherov was a late bloomer compared to most other superstars and has had bad luck with injuries, but when healthy prime Kuch has been competitive with McDavid more often than not in the regular season (and of course easily surpasses him in terms of postseason accomplishments.)

"Letting off the gas"??? Why has he not let off this year in preparation for the payoffs???

 

[WalterLundy]

These comparisons make no sense. As you say "not all years are created equal".

That two other players are having era best seasons (three if you include Matthews goalscoring) this year may be an indication that easier scoring environments are conducive to superstar talent separating themselves. Lower scoring creates parity. We saw this from 01/02 to 03/04 and from 13/14 to 15/16.

McDavid has been on peak Jagr/peak Crosby level. Adjusting using league GPG is flawed and not taken seriously.

It makes perfect sense and while the method isn’t perfect it accounts for more than just overall GPG but rather EVG, PPG and SHG separately and how a player got their points. It’s better than comparing dominance of a player in a given year over their top peers on a base level. You just have a figure that requires context if you do that such as the quality of the peers being dominated. If that was factored in then it would make sense. You don’t have to agree with it but a good credible poster on the site (TheStatician) used it a year ago in a great post and it’s the best I’ve seen.

Yes not all years are created equal. 01-02 to 03-04 and 13-14 to 15-16 to me left a lot to be desired. Top end talent in the league wasn’t performing like they are now or in the 80s-late 90s. I don’t call it parity I call it relative garbage. Jiri Hudler and Nick Foligno would not be in the top 10 in scoring this year yet they were in 2015.

And McDavid’s peak is better than Jagr and Crosby’s. That has been hashed out on this site already and poll threads have been closed due to lopsided results because of it. The only players with a clearly higher peak are Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux. I’ve heard arguments for Howe but I’m sticking to guys I’ve been alive for.

 

[Bob and 200 others]

Kucherov doesn’t need to scream at teammates. His teammates have proven they can practically win without him. #LTIR.

I came in for some witty banter, instead I get this absolute dud of a retort. Do better, loser!

 

[John Mandalorian]

I came in for some witty banter, instead I get this absolute dud of a retort. Do better, loser!

You should bring a game before you expect someone's A game

 

[Gnome17]

Its slipping away from McDavid a little bit because of Oilers powerplay right now - 12.5% in the past 5 games. he could easily have 3-4 more points from the pp in that span, especially in the last 2 games.
Still close enough though where its anyones game but still.

 

[HolyHagelin]

Mac and McDavid are both having great years, but without Kuch Tampa isn't a playoff team. When Vasy was our the first 1/4 of the season he carried the team to be around .500. Edmonton, Colorado and Tampa all have talented cores, but the point differences between Kuch and the next highest scoring Tampa player is pretty insane. Kuch has been responsible for majority of any offensive production.

Colorado still makes playoffs without MacKinnon. Edmonton, not sure. Tampa has been hot this last month but wad a dumpster fire for 60% of the year and we're lucky to stay afloat.

Did you read the article above? TB has a +24 goal differential on the year, but only +4 with Kuch on the ice. Seems like he is barely keeping up with his bad defense.

 

[daver]

And McDavid’s peak is better than Jagr and Crosby’s. That has been hashed out on this site already and poll threads have been closed due to lopsided results because of it. The only players with a clearly higher peak are Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux. I’ve heard arguments for Howe but I’m sticking to guys I’ve been alive for.

Peak level of play is not better. They all dominated their peers in a similar fashion, offensively, at their peaks.

Lower scoring levels by their peer groups doesn't change this.

Yes not all years are created equal. 01-02 to 03-04 and 13-14 to 15-16 to me left a lot to be desired. Top end talent in the league wasn’t performing like they are now or in the 80s-late 90s. I don’t call it parity I call it relative garbage. Jiri Hudler and Nick Foligno would not be in the top 10 in scoring this year yet they were in 2015.

I guess McDavid's 16/17 season was close to garbage too?

 

[tucker3434]

Honestly, Kucherov was coming pretty close to doing it on his own. Neither of the guys you mentioned would have totals anywhere near where they are at without Kucherov being a damn wizard. Stamkos and Point have both raised their game since since the TDL, but before that, Kucherov was floating everybody.

Again, I struggle to see how the guy with 7 more assists and 5 less goals wins because he did more by himself. Assists are the stat that require teammate support by definition.

 

[sdf]

Nikita Drucherov

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Did you read the article above? TB has a +24 goal differential on the year, but only +4 with Kuch on the ice. Seems like he is barely keeping up with his bad defense.

LOL no, that's false. You are comparing 5v5 vs goal differential at all strengths.
Tampa's goal differential is +24 which includes PP. Kucherov's on-ice goal differential (which includes PP) is +67.
At even strength goal differential for Tampa is -18 while Kucherov is +13.

 

[WalterLundy]

Peak level of play is not better. They all dominated their peers in a similar fashion, offensively, at their peaks.

Lower scoring levels by their peer groups doesn't change this.



I guess McDavid's 16/17 season was close to garbage too?

I’ll give your way of judging peak a go. We will look at number 2 in ppg and see how much they dominated. So with Crosby everyone points to the 99 games he played over the course of three seasons (11-13). We’d be comparing the points per game of 99 games to guys who close to or above 200 games for the span. That skews this wildly so we will look at each (very) shortened season at his peak level of play.

Crosby played 41 games from oct 7 2010 to Jan 5 2011 and averaged 1.61 to second place Stamkos at 1.37. Good for a ratio of 1.175. In 2011-12 he played 8 games from Nov 21 2011 to Dec 5 2011 and in that span he was in a four way tie at second in ppg with Ryan Kesler, Pavel Datsyuk and Ryan O’Reilly. He then played 14 games from Mar 15 2012 to Apr 7 2012 in which he was tied with Evgeni Malkin for first in ppg at 1.79. He was not the best player in the league this year and there isn’t even enough data to try to make the case (and over a peak Malkin at that). In 2013 he only played 36 of 48 games and overall he was first with 1.56 to second place St. Louis at 1.25 for what would be a 1.248 ratio but with 12 less games. In the actual span that Crosby played (Jan 19 to mar 30 2013) second place was Stamkos at 1.35 which is good for a 1.155 ratio similar to 2011. So for this span you have a combined 1.165 ratio over number 2 for 2011 and 2013 being the years you can count where he was clearly the best.

If you compare that to 2021 McDavid he is at 1.88 to second place (teammate) Draisaitl 1.50. A ratio of 1.253 over the full 56 game season. Next closest non teammate is Panarin at 1.38 which moves the ratio up to 1.362. 2023 McDavid has a ratio in the full 82 games 1.169 over second place Draisaitl again (1.87 to 1.60). Next closest non teammate was MacKinnon at 1.56 so the ratio would move (if you chose) to 1.198. A combined ratio of 1.211 for both years at 138 total games is clearly better than 1.165 over 77 combined games. Not only that but Stamkos was never the point producer Draisaitl or a MacKinnon are.

Jagr’s best year was 1999 in which he
dominated Selanne by a ratio of 1.097. Selanne also being better that year than Stamkos was at point production. McDavid’s peak is clearly above both by this metric and his 2021 is only marginally topped in the last 30 years by 1996 Lemieux at a 1.263 ratio. In a year like this Kucherov would be screwed by this logic and metric because in order to match the ratio over number 2 that Crosby had in 2011 he’d need to be averaging 2.06 points per game over a 1.75 McDavid. The quality of peers greatly matters.

As for McDavid’s 2017 it’s not garbage but obviously by no means close to his peak versions we have seen. He did come into a league that year that was low scoring as a 19-20 year old and put up 100 points. From the low scoring years of 2011 to 2017 in which league scoring never rose above 2.79 there were only 5 100 point seasons. Those being peak ‘12 Malkin, peak ‘16 Kane, prime ‘14 Crosby, peak ‘11 Daniel Sedin and a sophomore season ‘17 Connor McDavid who showed he could reach that mark as a player far from his own peak. Context matters there.

 

[DFC]

Did you read the article above? TB has a +24 goal differential on the year, but only +4 with Kuch on the ice. Seems like he is barely keeping up with his bad defense.

...are we +24 at even strength? I somehow doubt that.

 

[Senor Catface]

Good for third in scoring

You're the only person who cares.

Oh no, he finished behind two fantastic players for...one season. What horror!!!

 

[DFC]

Again, I struggle to see how the guy with 7 more assists and 5 less goals wins because he did more by himself. Assists are the stat that require teammate support by definition.

Goals in TB also require support, as shown by how only half of them are scored without Kucherov's involvement.

 

[Senor Catface]

I know you aren’t a fan of McDavid’s due to pens fan connections

Clearly not to you WalterLundy but...

I would like to go on the record and say if you don't like McDavid because you had the last generational player on your team, you are dumb. You are a dumb person.

 

[SenzZen]

Clearly not to you WalterLundy but...

I would like to go on the record and say if you don't like McDavid because you had the last generational player on your team, you are dumb. You are a dumb person.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Good for third in scoring

finishing 3rd would be his WORST finish of his career since his rookie season where he was injured for 40 games

amazing

 

[tucker3434]

Goals in TB also require support, as shown by how only half of them are scored without Kucherov's involvement.

MacKinnon is in on 46% of his teams goals. Kinda splitting hairs.

The Avs are getting a lot more goals from the bottom half of the lineup. That’s great for our spot in the standing but I don’t see how that props up MacKinnon individually in any way.

 

[Regal]

These comparisons make no sense. As you say "not all years are created equal".

That two other players are having era best seasons (three if you include Matthews goalscoring) this year may be an indication that easier scoring environments are conducive to superstar talent separating themselves. Lower scoring creates parity. We saw this from 01/02 to 03/04 and from 13/14 to 15/16.

McDavid has been on peak Jagr/peak Crosby level. Adjusting using league GPG is flawed and not taken seriously.

There might be some truth to the idea that league wide scoring going up recently has allowed top talent to separate themselves more, but we also can’t ignore the idea that top end talent can fluctuate wildly because we’re talking about a couple players who are outliers among a sample of a few hundred players that are all outliers. Just as Gretzky and Lemieux partly overlapping careers isn’t something you would expect, I don’t think it’s crazy that three players are having unbelievable years this year.

And Crosby has never had a full year at last year or this year’s level of production from McDavid. It’s only over the injured seasons he was able to sustain it.