Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[DFC]

It’s been an amazing year. It’s rare that all 3 are relatively healthy for the year as well.
And Matthews having a year to remember for the Rocket as well.

Yeah, it's a rare year where many of the best players in the game have done something special. MacKinnon and Kucherov having career years, McDavid looking to crack 100 assists with games to spare, Matthews flirting with 70.

We hear a lot about the 92-93 season. This feels kind of like that. Like several 1st Ballot HHOF players are doing something pretty special all at once.

Add: Worth noting that Kucherov has also cracked 90 assists, the most ever by a winger and by far the most ever by a Russian born player.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

If McDavid wants a 2:00 shift to end the game, he should simply score at least one point in the game, imo

 

[JFedol]

Man, I kind of feel sorry for Mac if he loses this art ross. He has needed some individual hardware to round out his resume, but it could get stolen away.

Eh, he's already got a cup. He'll forever be known as a Hart Finalist tho lol

 

[JFedol]

I'm wondering where some of you guys see Draisaitl's place in the top 5 now? Is he not 2nd behind McDavid like the vast majority of users from other platforms would normally place him. Was last year an outlier for his standards? A 110pt pace is still in the upper echelon of this league, but has Mackinnon surpassed him in the eyes for any of you guys perhaps?

 

[DFC]

I'm wondering where some of you guys see Draisaitl's place in the top 5 now? Is he not 2nd behind McDavid like the vast majority of users from other platforms would normally place him. Was last year an outlier for his standards? A 110pt pace is still in the upper echelon of this league, but has Mackinnon surpassed him in the eyes for any of you guys perhaps?

I think it's been McDavid, Kucherov, and MacKinnon for a while now.

 

[Spirits]

McDavid looking to crack 100 assists with games to spare

Might even get 30 goals!!

 

[Spirits]

Touched a nerve with the empty net stats

That poster is a massive homer.

but has Mackinnon surpassed him in the eyes for any of you guys perhaps?

Many years ago.

 

[crowfish]

Empty net shifts are often long because the other team hems you in your zone with the extra man.

Or when you stay out to try and farm cheap points like what Kucherov has been doing.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Thanks for the cheap + lucky points, bb

 

[Regal]

Or when you stay out to try and farm cheap points like what Kucherov has been doing.

So if he supposed to skate to the bench if the opposition has the puck in his zone?

 

[crowfish]

So if he supposed to skate to the bench if the opposition has the puck in his zone?

He had chances to go to the bench, but since is actively trying to stay on the ice as long as possible with the empty net, he chose not to. Were you not aware he was doing this?

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Just like that, Kucherov back up to a 7 point lead. Hope McDavid gives a shit next game.

You keep forgetting the goal tiebreaker. Its actually 8 points my slippery friend

 

[RussianGuyovich]

He had chances to go to the bench, but since is actively trying to stay on the ice as long as possible with the empty net, he chose not to. Were you not aware he was doing this?

Nobody cares but you

 

[NateTheGreat]

Fully expect McDavid to have a 4 or 5 point tomorrow against the Avs just as people begin to doubt his ability to close the gap again.

 

[Spirits]

Fully expect McDavid to have a 4 or 5 point tomorrow against the Avs just as people begin to doubt his ability to close the gap again.

Fourgiev starting? Double that number.

All levity aside, I don't think anyone doubts McDavids wonderful 100' game.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

An update since I posted last week - Kucherov remains the narrow favourite for the Art Ross, but McDavid (4 points back, with one game in hand) is only a couple of percentage points behind. This has been fueled by McDavid's five consecutive 2+ point games. Here are the current odds:

• Kucherov: 42% (previously: 55%)
• McDavid: 40% (previously: 22%)
• MacKinnon: 27% (previously: 32%)

I'm not going to bother showing Pastrnak or Panarin anymore. They have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning the Art Ross.

McDavid is at 119 points. Once he reaches 120 (which he will, barring a season-ending injury), this will be the first time since 1996 that the league featured three 120+ point scorers (Lemieux, Jagr and Sakic).

Probability of reaching 130 points:

• Kucherov: 99% (previously: 98%)
• McDavid: 99% (previously: 82%)
• MacKinnon: 98% (previously: 93%)

Probability of reaching 140 points:

• Kucherov: 42% (previously: 38%)
• McDavid: 41% (previously: 16%)
• MacKinnon: 30% (previously: 22%)

Kucherov and McDavid both have a 1% chance of reaching 150 points.

To update my previous post - after tonight's games, Kucherov is at 133 points (6 games remaining), MacKinnon is at 130 points (6 GR), and McDavid is at 126 points (8 GM).

My model currently has Kucherov as the favourite for the Art Ross (62%). McDavid is second (28%), and MacKinnon is third (21%).

Perhaps more accurately - the numbers above add up to more than 100% due to ties. McDavid is definitely going to finish last in goals. MacKinnon is very likely to finish ahead of Kucherov (it's not certain, but let's proceed on that assumption). Taking the Art Ross tiebreaker into account (more goals breaks the tie), the true percentages are 58% for Kucherov, 22% for McDavid, and 21% for MacKinnon.

Kucherov has a 71% chance of reaching 140 points. McDavid and MacKinnon are at 40% and 32% respectively. Kucherov and McDavid both have a 1% chance of getting to 150 points.

As I've mentioned before - this model is more accurate over large sample sizes. It doesn't adjust for the strength of any opponents. If one of these players faces an unusually easy (difficult) group of opponents during the final two weeks, their probabilities would actually be higher (lower).

The other question comes down to motivation (and coaching). The model assumes that each player is playing at their "true" talent level. Obviously, I can't predict if a player will be given a game or two to rest. Similarly, if one of these players gets a light 15 minutes in games 81 and/or 82, that would affect the probabilities, but there's no way to know that in advance.

This has been a fantastic race for the Art Ross trophies - one of the best in decades. As we enter the final two weeks of the season, Kucherov is the favourite, but McDavid and MacKinnon are still in it.

 

[WalterLundy]

Best seasons of the last 30 years in the 2023-2024 environment by points per game

2023-24: EVG: 2.35, PPG: 0.63, SHG: 0.09

‘96 Lemieux:
70 GP: 60 G, 82 A, 142 PTS (2.03)

‘21 McDavid:
56 GP: 35 G, 77 A, 112 PTS (2.00)

‘23 McDavid:
82 GP: 63 G, 87 A, 150 PTS (1.83)

‘99 Jagr:
81 GP: 52 G, 93 A, 145 PTS (1.79)

*’11-‘13 Crosby:
99 GP: 61 G, 116 A, 177 PTS (1.79)

‘24 Kucherov:
75 GP: 43 G, 90 A, 133 PTS (1.77)

‘96 Jagr:
82 GP: 61 G, 83 A, 144 PTS (1.76)

‘24 McDavid:
72 GP: 29 G, 97 A, 126 PTS (1.75)

‘24 MacKinnon:
76 GP: 48 G, 82 A, 130 PTS (1.71)

‘00 Jagr:
63 GP: 48 G, 59 A, 107 PTS (1.70)

‘97 Lemieux:
76 GP: 51 G, 75 A, 126 PTS (1.66)

‘12 Malkin
75 GP: 57 G, 67 A, 124 PTS (1.65)

‘01 Jagr:
81 GP: 59 G, 74 A, 133 PTS (1.64)

‘10 Ovechkin:
72 GP: 55 G, 63 A, 118 PTS (1.64)

‘03 Forsberg:
75 GP: 34 G, 89 A, 123 PTS (1.64)

That’s the top 15 of the last 30 years. The three next closest are ‘20 Draisaitl at 1.61, ‘97 Lindros (52 games) is at 1.62 and ‘19 Kucherov at 1.62. 3 seasons this year are in the top 15. All three are producing at virtually peak Crosby/Jagr level point production.

 

[crowfish]

Nobody cares but you

The funniest part about people on the internet telling you they don't care is that 100% of the time they care.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

The salt in this thread is glorious.

 

[Ol' Jase]

He had chances to go to the bench, but since is actively trying to stay on the ice as long as possible with the empty net, he chose not to. Were you not aware he was doing this?

I don’t see Cooper or any teammates screaming at him to get off the ice, do you?

 

[T REX]

Or when you stay out to try and farm cheap points like what Kucherov has been doing.

Give it a rest already

 

[The Grim Reaper]

The funniest part about people on the internet telling you they don't care is that 100% of the time they care.

No. That's just your narcissism telling you that.

 

[Albatros]

McDavid doesn't deserve the big awards this season.

 

[Video Nasty]

You keep forgetting the goal tiebreaker. Its actually 8 points my slippery friend

 

[Senor Catface]

You keep forgetting the goal tiebreaker. Its actually 8 points my slippery friend

Where on the doll did McDavid hurt you