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Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

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Non Player Canadiens said:
alright, well, in the absence of any concrete examples, I had to guess at which players meet your definition of 'mid tier 1C'. here's what I came up with:

___

CAR - Sebastian Aho, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (3rd place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]24G[/TD]
[TD]33A[/TD]
[TD]57P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

NYR - Mika Zibanejad, age 23, in 2015-2016 season (9th place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]21G[/TD]
[TD]30A[/TD]
[TD]51P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

NYI - Matt Barzal, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (12th place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]17G[/TD]
[TD]28A[/TD]
[TD]45P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

VGK - William Karlsson, age 23, in 2016-2017 season (4th place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]6G[/TD]
[TD]19A[/TD]
[TD]25P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

DAL - Joe Pavelski, age 23, in 2008-2009 season (1st place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]25G[/TD]
[TD]34A[/TD]
[TD]59P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

MTL - Nick Suzuki, age 23, in 2022-2023 season (28th place team in regular season)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]26G[/TD]
[TD]40A[/TD]
[TD]66P[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

please feel free to correct me with counterexamples, but to me it looks like Suzuki is right on track for a "mid tier" 1C.
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PPG is the crucial pieces that's missing here.
 
Sorinth said:
Overall I agree that Suzuki is on a good path but this analysis is misleading, not only do games played matter but for a guy like Barzal at 20 he had 85 points in 82 games, so whether he had a down year 23 is kinda irrelevant. We could also take Elias Pettersson, at 23 he had 68 points in 80 games, but again had a better ppg in earlier years which shows that lots of factors outside the players control figure into how much they produce. For example a better PP and Caufield staying healthy and Suzuki is likely a ppg player this year. In the end though his playoff performance is what solidifies him as a #1 center.
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He’s not on a bad path and it’s not a stretch at all to say he can improve those numbers significantly if he can stay consistent over a season. He has the talent.

Can he reach that level where he’s the 15th best Center in the league? I’m not sure. There are so many great number ones out there.

McD, Crosby, Mackinnon, Matthews, Point, Draisytl, Hughes, Eichel, Thompson, Malkin, Tavares, Barkov, Stamkos, Aho…

Some of these guys are older and he’ll pass them but others are on the way up.

He’s certainly not there now. I had hoped to see a bigger jump this year. Maybe we’ll see it next season. If he can play the way he did at the start of last year throughout the whole season then he’d have a much stronger case.

He has to put in a consistent year. He’s in his prime now. He’s been in the league for four years now. If he’s going to jump a level, I was hoping it’d be last season. Hopefully we see it in 2024.
 
Non Player Canadiens said:
OK, but you still haven't provided examples of centers in the 10-20 range that clearly had a better trajectory than Suzuki by age 23. this list reads like a Top 10 to me.
Click to expand...
What I’m saying is that to get into the top 15 it’s a steep hill to climb. Most if not all of those guys were legit number ones by 23.

An average number one is going to be in the 13-18 range. Once you’re in the 20s you’re a below average center. At 25-30 you’re a fringe number one. Outside the top 30…. You’re better suited to be a great 2nd liner.

Now, it’s not just offense we should consider. Bergeron and Kopitar punch above their weight defensively for example.

Suzuki has potential, I just wish he was further ahead. The fact that he hasn’t knocked down that door yet doesn’t mean he never will but he’s in his prime now and needs to step up if he’s going to be considered in that group.

At his best, I think he can get there. But he needs to be way more consistent. As I said earlier, Caufield is legit one of the best wingers in the league already. That will help. So will players like Dach, Guhle, Slaf etc… being a year older.
 
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If we acquire PLD to be our second line centre, watch all the pressure wash away on Nick and he explodes. Bedard plus Suzuki this offseason would be hilarious and set us up with 4 amazing centres in our top 6 to rotate.

Dach - Bedard - Anderson/Slaf
PLD - Suzuki - Caufield
 
Lafleurs Guy said:
What I’m saying is that to get into the top 15 it’s a steep hill to climb. Most if not all of those guys were legit number ones by 23.
Click to expand...
So, sounds like we're agreeing that he's outside of the top 15Cs tier, but still a legit #1C by virtue of being in that next tier. Yesterday it sounded like you were saying he's not #1C material.
Lafleurs Guy said:
He hasn’t performed up to the standards of a number one. Simple as that.
Click to expand...
IMO being in that next tier is still pretty good, and we can build around it if there are other skaters on the team that are as good at their respective positions, or better:

- can Caufield become a Top 10 winger?
- can Dach also become a Top 20C?
- can Slaf become a Top 20 winger?
- can Guhle become a Top 10 D?
- can 2023 5OA pick become a Top 10 _____?
 
Non Player Canadiens said:
So, sounds like we're agreeing that he's outside of the top 15Cs tier, but still a legit #1C by virtue of being in that next tier. Yesterday it sounded like you were saying he's not #1C material.
Click to expand...
He’s outside the top 30 in scoring for centers. He’s 73rd in league scoring overall. So no, I don’t think he’s a legit number one center right now.
Non Player Canadiens said:
IMO being in that next tier is still pretty good, and we can build around it if there are other skaters on the team that are as good at their respective positions, or better:

- can Caufield become a Top 10 winger?
- can Dach also become a Top 20C?
- can Slaf become a Top 20 winger?
- can Guhle become a Top 10 D?
- can 2023 5OA pick become a Top 10 _____?
Click to expand...
Caufield will be a legit number one winger. That’s the only thing I’m really confident in saying.

As for Dach/Suzuki we might wind up with two really good number two centers. That’s not too bad. Certainly better than what we’ve had.
 
Sorinth said:
I would say it's better yes, but even if you don't agree the fact that there isn't an 8 year age difference is huge. We never had Plekanec and Koivu in their prime together. By the time Plekanec entered his prime Koivu was 33 years old.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Plek came into his prime later on.
 
marvelousmotion said:
I like Caufield as much as you do and do think he's going to be a star with his goal scoring abilities, but fact is Caufield had 36 points in 46 games. In those same 46 games, Suzuki had 37 points. I don't see how you can claim that Caufield continued to produce while Suzuki did not.

With both in the line-up, they only had one real cold streak (i.e. more than two consecutive games held off the scoresheet) and it was during Christmas time. There were 5 games played between December 19 to 29; Caufield had 1 point (a goal vs. Arizona). In the 4 other games (vs. Colorado, Dallas, TB and Florida), both Caufield and Suzuki failed to produce as the whole team struggled.

It's not a coincidence that the cold streak happened during a time when Monahan and Matheson both went down with injuries. These two were the key players providing Suzuki and Caufield a minimum of support down the middle and on the blueline.

It's also not a coincidence that Suzuki produced a lot more when Matheson returned from his injury. Unless you are McDavid, having offensive support from other players on the team matters a lot. You need Ds who can move the puck and contribute offensively; Matheson was the only one who could fill that role on the team.
Click to expand...
Savard - the teams record w and without Savard is astonishing.
 
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There was a gap after Caufield got injured where Suzuki's numbers went down but then increased again when RHP was called up and put on his line.

Suzuki's production with Caufield (Oct - Jan 19th):
* 37 pts in 46 games (0.80/game)

Suzuki's production with RHP (Jan 26 - End of Season):
* 28 pts in 34 games (0.82/game)
 
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the said:
I don’t think this was ever posted so here’s PeeKay interviewing Suzuki and playing bubble hockey together.



The highlight is when Subban decides to sit in Gallaghers stall to interview him. :laugh:
Click to expand...

I have this table! lol
Fun stuff. Rick Jeanneret is the play by play voice.
 
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Lafleurs Guy said:
What I’m saying is that to get into the top 15 it’s a steep hill to climb. Most if not all of those guys were legit number ones by 23.

An average number one is going to be in the 13-18 range. Once you’re in the 20s you’re a below average center. At 25-30 you’re a fringe number one. Outside the top 30…. You’re better suited to be a great 2nd liner.

Now, it’s not just offense we should consider. Bergeron and Kopitar punch above their weight defensively for example.

Suzuki has potential, I just wish he was further ahead. The fact that he hasn’t knocked down that door yet doesn’t mean he never will but he’s in his prime now and needs to step up if he’s going to be considered in that group.

At his best, I think he can get there. But he needs to be way more consistent. As I said earlier, Caufield is legit one of the best wingers in the league already. That will help. So will players like Dach, Guhle, Slaf etc… being a year older.
Click to expand...
If Suzuki played on a team with a good PP he would already be a PPG player imo and a slam dunk no brainer as a consensus legitimate #1C. Simply playing on a better team that plays ahead instead of from behind also tends to boost offensive numbers as opponents are forced to open up and take more chances. Evaluating Suzuki strictly based on points is silly, as long as he keeps his head on straight and avoids the predictable mid season slump he will be a #1C and it will be more evident as this team evolves.
 
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Estimated_Prophet said:
If Suzuki played on a team with a good PP he would already be a PPG player imo and a slam dunk no brainer as a consensus legitimate #1C. Simply playing on a batter team that plays ahead instead of from behind also tends to boost offensive numbers as opponents are forced to open up and take more chances. Evaluating Suzuki strictly based on points is silly, as long as he keeps his head on straight and avoids the predictable mid season slump he will be a #1C and it will be more evident as this team evolves.
Click to expand...
If he played like a real number one, it wouldn’t matter what team he’s on.

Look at how he started the year… like a boss. Started pacing at 42-94. Awesome. Then he tanked.

His linemate - who people claimed was dependent on him - continued to score.

So - NO there’s no excuse. Either you’re a number one or you’re not. Maybe he will be. But he has to prove it. He’s got Caufield on his wing. That alone should yield tons of assists. He’s not out there with nothing.

He’s shown he can do it in stretches. He needs to do it consistently. Stop making excuses.
 
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Lafleurs Guy said:
If he played like a real number one, it wouldn’t matter what team he’s on.

Look at how he started the year… like a boss. Started pacing at 42-94. Awesome. Then he tanked.

His linemate - who people claimed was dependent on him - continued to score.

So - NO there’s no excuse. Either you’re a number one or you’re not. Maybe he will be. But he has to prove it. He’s got Caufield on his wing. That alone should yield tons of assists. He’s not out there with nothing.

He’s shown he can do it in stretches. He needs to do it consistently. Stop making excuses.
Click to expand...

Name a few "number one" C's last year that had as little roster support as Suzuki has last year...

Top 6 fwds
Top 4 D's

Context matters.
 
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