Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[tooji]

Max was top 5 winger scorer for about 5 years in a row.

I think people forget it was a much lower scoring era. Jamie Benn won the art ross being barely ppg

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

I think people forget it was a much lower scoring era. Jamie Benn won the art ross being barely ppg

There was more hooking, rules changed at what year? I don't think Jamie Benn ever approched the Gs of Brett Hull.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

People used to crap a lot on Pacioretty.

From 2011-2012 to 2016-2017 Pacioretty was 4th IN THE WHOLE LEAGUE for goals.

Only 3 players ranked above him : Ovechkin, Stamkos and Pavelski.

That’s insane when you think about it.

He was an elite goalscorer, ranking over Crosby, Kane, Tavares and other great players.

He was definitely underappreciated. Pacioretty was putting up those goal totals playing with David Desharnais and only earning $4.5M a year.

It is too bad Bergevin focused on adding 4th line plugs, instead of finding offensive help to support Pacioretty in the playoffs when we were lucky to score 2 goals a game.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think you're really over-estimating how well a player can produce all by himself on such a bad and heavily injured team. The emphasis on production without taking into account the extreme environment that Suzuki was in is clouding your judgement about his abilities as a 1st line center. He had no breathing room; he was basically the only player the opposing teams had to focus on and try to neutralize all year. Suzuki had zero support with all the injuries.

By the standards of your comparisons, you're basically expecting him to perform like a generational talent, which is unfair. Yzerman was one of the best centers in the history of the NHL. Plus, the worst Detroit team of his era had better players than the ones Suzuki played with this year.

To put things into perspective, even MacKinnon, one of the best in today's generation that you're using as an example, had a rough time producing when he was on a bad team. In his rookie season, when Colorado was a playoffs team, he had 63 points in 82 games. The following three seasons, his production took a hit and regressed as they stopped making the playoffs. He followed-up his rookie year with 38 points in 64 games, 52 points in 72 games, and 53 points in 82 games respectively. When his production took off the year after, it coincided with the Avalanches finally turning a corner and becoming a playoffs team again.

In those three non-playoffs years, not a single Avalanches player managed to produce more than 59 points and all of their productions regressed. They were not hit badly with injuries; they even had players like Iginla, Landeskog, Duchene and O'Reilly playing together all 82 games at some point. That's way more support than Suzuki ever had this season.

Caufield continued to produce when everyone else was struggling (including Suzuki) no reason Nick couldn’t have done the same. He had Caufield on his wing and still couldn’t produce.

Yes, I give him some leeway and there’s no doubt the team hurts his numbers but the fact of the matter is that he didn’t crack the top 70 in scoring. He hasn’t proven himself as a real number one center yet.

 

[LaP]

He was definitely underappreciated. Pacioretty was putting up those goal totals playing with David Desharnais and only earning $4.5M a year.

It is too bad Bergevin focused on adding 4th line plugs, instead of finding offensive help to support Pacioretty in the playoffs when we were lucky to score 2 goals a game.

DD and Dale Weise for pretty much an entire season. Not many players in this league could do 30+ goals 60+ points playing with those two specially not on a team winning.

 

[The Great Weal]

DD and Dale Weise for pretty much an entire season. Not many players in this league could do 30+ goals 60+ points playing with those two.

I mean he also played with Radulov and Galchenyuk and still only had 67 points along with one of the worst playoff performances by a "top" forward. Pacioretty had the luxury of a Markov-Subban pairing to mitigate the lack of high end forwards to play with prior to Radulov and Galchenyuk.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

I mean he also played with Radulov and Galchenyuk and still only had 67 points along with one of the worst playoff performances by a "top" forward. Pacioretty had the luxury of a Markov-Subban pairing to mitigate the lack of high end forwards to play with prior to Radulov and Galchenyuk.

That year Markov missed 20 games, Subban wasn't even on the team and Galchenyuk played less than half the year on their line. The team was disgustingly bad offensively and Radulov, despite playing great, only had 54 points.

 

[The Great Weal]

That year Markov missed 20 games, Subban wasn't even on the team and Galchenyuk played less than half the year on their line. The team was disgustingly bad offensively and Radulov, despite playing great, only had 54 points.

I said "prior to Radulov and Galchenyuk" for the Markov-Subban pairing

 

[marvelousmotion]

Caufield continued to produce when everyone else was struggling (including Suzuki) no reason Nick couldn’t have done the same. He had Caufield on his wing and still couldn’t produce.

Yes, I give him some leeway and there’s no doubt the team hurts his numbers but the fact of the matter is that he didn’t crack the top 70 in scoring. He hasn’t proven himself as a real number one center yet.

I like Caufield as much as you do and do think he's going to be a star with his goal scoring abilities, but fact is Caufield had 36 points in 46 games. In those same 46 games, Suzuki had 37 points. I don't see how you can claim that Caufield continued to produce while Suzuki did not.

With both in the line-up, they only had one real cold streak (i.e. more than two consecutive games held off the scoresheet) and it was during Christmas time. There were 5 games played between December 19 to 29; Caufield had 1 point (a goal vs. Arizona). In the 4 other games (vs. Colorado, Dallas, TB and Florida), both Caufield and Suzuki failed to produce as the whole team struggled.

It's not a coincidence that the cold streak happened during a time when Monahan and Matheson both went down with injuries. These two were the key players providing Suzuki and Caufield a minimum of support down the middle and on the blueline.

It's also not a coincidence that Suzuki produced a lot more when Matheson returned from his injury. Unless you are McDavid, having offensive support from other players on the team matters a lot. You need Ds who can move the puck and contribute offensively; Matheson was the only one who could fill that role on the team.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I like Caufield as much as you do and do think he's going to be a star with his goal scoring abilities, but fact is Caufield had 36 points in 46 games. In those same 46 games, Suzuki had 37 points. I don't see how you can claim that Caufield continued to produce while Suzuki did not.

Goals are more valuable than assists. And Caufield produced consistently even though he was younger and suffered an injury. He continued to make plays for his teammates but unfortunately they couldn’t capitalize. In addition to this CC had carnival like analytics.

One produced like a first liner, the other did not.

With both in the line-up, they only had one real cold streak (i.e. more than two consecutive games held off the scoresheet) and it was during Christmas time. There were 5 games played between December 19 to 29; Caufield had 1 point (a goal vs. Arizona). In the 4 other games (vs. Colorado, Dallas, TB and Florida), both Caufield and Suzuki failed to produce as the whole team struggled.

CC cooled off slightly but he still maintained a good scoring pace while his club cratered. Yes the assists dried up but he was still putting the puck in the net. And that was about a month after sustaining the injury that would junk his season.

It's not a coincidence that the cold streak happened during a time when Monahan and Matheson both went down with injuries. These two were the key players providing Suzuki and Caufield a minimum of support down the middle and on the blueline.

Again, Caufield continued to score…

It's also not a coincidence that Suzuki produced a lot more when Matheson returned from his injury. Unless you are McDavid, having offensive support from other players on the team matters a lot. You need Ds who can move the puck and contribute offensively; Matheson was the only one who could fill that role on the team.

Suzuki has not shown the consistency that a number one should have. I’m not expecting a 150 point year but he was nowhere close to where we need him to be.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Suzuki has not shown the consistency that a number one should have. I’m not expecting a 150 point year but he was nowhere close to where we need him to be.

How many 1Cs have shown your required level of consistency at age 23?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

How many 1Cs have shown your required level of consistency at age 23?

I didn’t say it was required by this age. I said he’s still unproven as a number one.

I had hoped this would be the year for him. It’s not unusual for players to hit their peak around this age. But he didn’t show it.

Maybe it was injury, a bad year, bad circumstances… whatever. But he’s still unproven as a number one. And it’s entirely possible that he’ll never be a number one. Maybe he’s just not that good.

I’m cautiously optimistic about next year. He’ll have a better supporting cast. Will be 24… but I’m not counting on it.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

I didn’t say it was required by this age. I said he’s still unproven as a number one.

I had hoped this would be the year for him. It’s not unusual for players to hit their peak around this age. But he didn’t show it.

Maybe it was injury, a bad year, bad circumstances… whatever. But he’s still unproven as a number one. And it’s entirely possible that he’ll never be a number one. Maybe he’s just not that good.

I’m cautiously optimistic about next year. He’ll have a better supporting cast. Will be 24… but I’m not counting on it.

ok fair enough. he's still unproven as a 1C. but in your opinion is he on track to be a number 1C, compared to the development trajectory of other 1Cs you're measuring him against? you can cite examples of other, legitimate 23yo 1Cs that met your standards if you like

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

ok fair enough. he's still unproven as a 1C. but in your opinion is he on track to be a number 1C, compared to the development trajectory of other 1Cs you're measuring him against? you can cite examples of other, legitimate 23yo 1Cs that met your standards if you like

Most great number ones are already producing big numbers by now - Yzerman, Gretzky and Lemieux all had their best seasons at 23 or under (although you could argue that Lemieux’s best year was actually 93 - insane year.)

Doesn’t mean that he can’t improve. Doesn’t mean he’ll never be a number one. I just think that we should temper expectations a little.

My expectations were that he’d be a mid tier number one center. Our first in a long time. Now I’m thinking he might be more like a Koivu type player - good but not a real number one.

Caufield is going to help as will his other teammates who will be another year older. At his best he’s very good but he needs to be much more consistent.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Most great number ones are already producing big numbers by now - Yzerman, Gretzky and Lemieux all had their best seasons at 23 or under (although you could argue that Lemieux’s best year was actually 93 - insane year.)

so he won't be as good as Yzerman, Gretzky and Lemieux, noted.

My expectations were that he’d be a mid tier number one center. Our first in a long time. Now I’m thinking he might be more like a Koivu type player - good but not a real number one.

is there another mid tier 1C that you can compare him to at age 23 that he's coming up short against? i just want to know who you're comparing him to

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

so he won't be as good as Yzerman, Gretzky and Lemieux, noted.

You asked me to cite players… the best ones come to mind. Crosby was another one. It’s not uncommon for players to peak in their early 20s.

Don’t ask the question if you don’t want the answer.

is there another mid tier 1C that you can compare him to at age 23 that he's coming up short against? i just want to know who you're comparing him to

How about you run around and do your own research?

Again, im not saying he’ll never be a number one. Im not saying it’s all downhill… of course he can get better.

Im simply saying that I thought he’d have shown that he could be a number one by now. As a result my expectations are now lower than what they were for him.

We’ll see. Hopefully this will be his breakout year. I’d love to see it. As I said, at his best he’s very good. But he needs to be way more consistent.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

How about you run around and do your own research?

bro you're the one who's saying he's not good enough to be a 1C, or not on track, hedge it however you like. who are you comparing him to at age 23? got any other examples besides Crosby and the other all-time greats?

I think he's perfectly on track to be a mid-range 1C. but I'm giving you an easy out here. who else at age 23 was clearly ahead of Suzuki as a 23 y.o. mid-range 1C? there should be plenty of examples for you to choose from

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

bro you're the one who's saying he's not good enough to be a 1C, or not on track, hedge it however you like.

Bro,

He hasn’t performed up to the standards of a number one. Simple as that.

who are you comparing him to at age 23? got any other examples besides Crosby and the other all-time greats?

I said that it’s not uncommon for players to reach their peak at 23 or earlier. You asked me to cite players and I did.

Than you dismissed it…

Again, YOU go make an argument then. YOU go chase your tail on players peaking later. I’m sure you’ll find some. Go make the case

I think he's perfectly on track to be a mid-range 1C. but I'm giving you an easy out here.

I don’t need an out.

Again you go make an argument. I’m not going to do it for you.

who else at age 23 was clearly ahead of Suzuki as a 23 y.o. mid-range 1C? there should be plenty of examples for you to choose from

Go research it yourself. You’re the one making the argument.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Bro,

He hasn’t performed up to the standards of a number one. Simple as that.

bro, I'm just asking you for a single comparable, a "mid-tier 1C" as you put it, that Suzuki is not measuring up against according to your standards, at age 23.

I'll try to dig in and "do my own research", as you so helpfully put it, but in the meantime, can you not provide a single name that's not Lemieux/Gretzky/Crosby/Yzerman?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

bro, I'm just asking you for a single comparable, a "mid-tier 1C" as you put it, that Suzuki is not measuring up against according to your standards, at age 23.

You’re asking me to make your argument for you. I’m not going to do it. That’s up to you.

As I said, I’d have hoped he’d have already established himself as a number one. He hasn’t.

So, we’ll have to wait and see if he’ll ever do it. I hope he can but I’m not as confident in him as I used to be.

 

[MadMslm]

Bro,

He hasn’t performed up to the standards of a number one. Simple as that.

Just wondering what is your standards for a #1 center in today’s NHL ?

I feel like that’s where opinions differ on Suzuki, the expectation on what is or not a number one.

Can you name which center you consider number ones in the league ?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Just wondering what is your standards for a #1 center in today’s NHL ?

I feel like that’s where opinions differ on Suzuki, the expectation on what is or not a number one.

Can you name which center you consider number ones in the league ?

I’d expect him to be somewhere around 15th in scoring for a centre. Mid pack.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

I’d expect him to be somewhere around 15th in scoring for a centre. Mid pack.

alright, well, in the absence of any concrete examples, I had to guess at which players meet your definition of 'mid tier 1C'. here's what I came up with:

___

CAR - Sebastian Aho, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (3rd place team in regular season)

24G

33A

57P

NYR - Mika Zibanejad, age 23, in 2015-2016 season (9th place team in regular season)

21G

30A

51P

NYI - Matt Barzal, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (12th place team in regular season)

17G

28A

45P

VGK - William Karlsson, age 23, in 2016-2017 season (4th place team in regular season)

6G

19A

25P

DAL - Joe Pavelski, age 23, in 2008-2009 season (1st place team in regular season)

25G

34A

59P

MTL - Nick Suzuki, age 23, in 2022-2023 season (28th place team in regular season)

26G

40A

66P

please feel free to correct me with counterexamples, but to me it looks like Suzuki is right on track for a "mid tier" 1C.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

alright, well, in the absence of any concrete examples, I had to guess at which players meet your definition of 'mid tier 1C'. here's what I came up with:

___

CAR - Sebastian Aho, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (3rd place team in regular season)

24G

33A

57P

NYR - Mika Zibanejad, age 23, in 2015-2016 season (9th place team in regular season)

21G

30A

51P

NYI - Matt Barzal, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (12th place team in regular season)

17G

28A

45P

VGK - William Karlsson, age 23, in 2016-2017 season (4th place team in regular season)

6G

19A

25P

DAL - Joe Pavelski, age 23, in 2008-2009 season (1st place team in regular season)

25G

34A

59P

MTL - Nick Suzuki, age 23, in 2022-2023 season (28th place team in regular season)

26G

40A

66P

please feel free to correct me with counterexamples, but to me it looks like Suzuki is right on track for a "mid tier" 1C.

Thank you.

One thing to keep in mind is that scoring is way up now. 66 points is good for 73rd in the league now. It would’ve been much better five or ten years ago.

Also, you don’t seem to be factoring in games played. If I look at your first example Aho:

21 years old: 83 points in 82 games
22 years old: 66 points in 68 games
23 years old: 58 points in 57 games

He’s been about a point per game player since 21 years old.

I’ll look at the others later as I’m going to bed but thanks for posting these. I’ll check them out tomorrow.

 

[Sorinth]

alright, well, in the absence of any concrete examples, I had to guess at which players meet your definition of 'mid tier 1C'. here's what I came up with:

___

CAR - Sebastian Aho, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (3rd place team in regular season)

24G

33A

57P

NYR - Mika Zibanejad, age 23, in 2015-2016 season (9th place team in regular season)

21G

30A

51P

NYI - Matt Barzal, age 23, in 2020-2021 season (12th place team in regular season)

17G

28A

45P

VGK - William Karlsson, age 23, in 2016-2017 season (4th place team in regular season)

6G

19A

25P

DAL - Joe Pavelski, age 23, in 2008-2009 season (1st place team in regular season)

25G

34A

59P

MTL - Nick Suzuki, age 23, in 2022-2023 season (28th place team in regular season)

26G

40A

66P

please feel free to correct me with counterexamples, but to me it looks like Suzuki is right on track for a "mid tier" 1C.

Overall I agree that Suzuki is on a good path but this analysis is misleading, not only do games played matter but for a guy like Barzal at 20 he had 85 points in 82 games, so whether he had a down year 23 is kinda irrelevant. We could also take Elias Pettersson, at 23 he had 68 points in 80 games, but again had a better ppg in earlier years which shows that lots of factors outside the players control figure into how much they produce. For example a better PP and Caufield staying healthy and Suzuki is likely a ppg player this year. In the end though his playoff performance is what solidifies him as a #1 center.