Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[Adam Michaels]

 

[JoelWarlord]

Montreal fan are getting more and more delusional with our player. Ask others teams how much he is worth. Is going to be a eye opener for the people here. The fact that you believe in 4 years he is going to be worth over 10+m is just insane.

No, I don't think it's delusional to expect that as the cap rises it will become more and more expensive to extend him as a UFA, Kevin Hayes got 7.1M, top 6 centres in UFA are very expensive. Even if the number would only be 8.5M or 9M it doesn't matter, that would still be a foolish decision to give him a 4 year term that walks him directly to UFA for the sake of saving money during a rebuilding phase when we have no reason to care about absolute cap efficiency.

I get it. We did not have a single player with over 90pts in a season for a very long time. We don't need to over hype him. Where are the people calling Cole Caufield the rookie of the year now?

I'm not overhyping him. He is signed to a contract that pays him 9.66% of the cap which is equivalent to if Plekanec was paid 5.75M and 6.9M instead of 5M and 6M. I don't think it's overhyping the player to say that's not something to worry about, it's just contextualizing the way the cap has changed since the last time we had a real bonafide top 6C instead of Danault/Domi/Desharnais who are cheap because they have huge shortcomings.

I also don't think a 20 year old 5'7 sniper struggling as a rookie has anything to do with a proven NHLer who will be entering his 4th season with a new coach and consistent wingers next season instead of a revolving door of ice cold rookies, dogshit like Hoffman, and random AHL call ups.

Even in 2026, Suzuki a good 60-70 pts player would still be worth around 7.5m max.

He was on a 60 point pace last year as a sophomore at 21. I do not share your confidence in the ceiling here. Nor do I think "60-70" points is a particularly meaningful cut-off point for value given his defensive value. 7.5M under a 90M cap is equivalent to 6.79M today, and a 60-70 point two way player is worth more than that, without even getting into whether that's his ceiling as a scorer.

I agree and the worst thing is the ripple effect : assume you draft a true 1C while you pay a 50 pt player 8m, that s going to drive internal salries upwards.

Silliness. He was on pace for 60 last year, 41P in 56 games last season and you're confident in just declaring that he's a "50pt player"? I do not understand why people are seemingly just completely ignoring that he had 41P in 56 games last year as a 21 year old and are just treating this season with a revolving door of shit linemates and AHL callups and dragging Hoffman's washed up ass around as if it's this ironclad proof of his ultimate potential.

I don't get this tendency to just be completely ultra negative and spin it as this cold calculating view. It is not rational to believe based on his accomplishments thus far and trajectory that Nick Suzuki is going to be Adam Henrique. It's a possible outcome on the low end of his reasonable projections, but it is not inherently rational to just project every player as only their floor and completely ignore ceiling.

 

[Vachon23]

That’s great experience for Suzuki

 

[Hector Salamanca]

Agree suz is a 50 pts player, and hes the problem, not That trash team or player like armia making 3,4m doing NOTHING. Let Bash the elite talent we have in good ol habs fashion.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Silliness. He was on pace for 60 last year, 41P in 56 games last season and you're confident in just declaring that he's a "50pt player"? I do not understand why people are seemingly just completely ignoring that he had 41P in 56 games last year as a 21 year old and are just treating this season with a revolving door of shit linemates and AHL callups and dragging Hoffman's washed up ass around as if it's this ironclad proof of his ultimate potential.

I don't get this tendency to just be completely ultra negative and spin it as this cold calculating view. It is not rational to believe based on his accomplishments thus far and trajectory that Nick Suzuki is going to be Adam Henrique. It's a possible outcome on the low end of his reasonable projections, but it is not inherently rational to just project every player as only their floor and completely ignore ceiling.

I am not being ultra negative I like Suzuki but should he be paid close to 8m ? I don't see why given his play. Sure the Habs suck but elite players find a way to perform. He should become a very good 2C in my opinion but overpaid if the ceiling remains quite flat, as it should in the next 2/3 years.

Also his supposed two way game is over hyped, he made a lot of mistakes last year, losing pucks in key areas. People compare him to Bergeron who already had two 70 points season at the time, this is a joke.

Again I like Suzuki and I hope I am wrong but I don t see him as a 1C.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Montreal won't see that true #1C, if they draft one, for another three years, on the first year of his ELC, even of they burn one year off that ELC (which they never did for Suzuki, thankfully), it won't be until five years from now that they will need to sign that God-Send of a Center (all just a wet dream at this pont, anyhow).

By then, the Cap will have skyrocketed post COVID and 7.75M will be a perfect mark fo the salary of a 2nd line C.

10M, as with Eichel a few years back, already, will be a cost-efficient signing of the true #1C.

I personally see zero problem with riding out, at that point, the three best years of Suzuki, all remaining on his current contract that kicks off only next season, at 7.75M!

If he becomes a 60-70 point two way center sure, if he becomes a 50-60 center with a average defense not a chance this is a good deal.

 

[First Line]

I am not being ultra negative I like Suzuki but should he be paid close to 8m ? I don't see why given his play. Sure the Habs suck but elite players find a way to perform. He should become a very good 2C in my opinion but overpaid if the ceiling remains quite flat, as it should in the next 2/3 years.

Also his supposed two way game is over hyped, he made a lot of mistakes last year, losing pucks in key areas. People compare him to Bergeron who already had two 70 points season at the time, this is a joke.

Again I like Suzuki and I hope I am wrong but I don t see him as a 1C.

I don’t think so either but at the same time I don’t mind some overpaiement when it’s to fill a need. The contract is clearly overaction to losing KK and Danault but at least it has the potential to be good, not great, but still okay for Montreal.

 

[70Stang]

Suzuki is fine. As a group nobody has been seated in the right seat all year. When everyone is doing there part and legit 3-4 lines deep its a totally different game. The defence is where everything starts and finishes. We won't talk about the atrocious goaltending. This team is forced to defend more than its gets a chance on offence. Plain and simple it's a team game and it all starts from the goalie out. Puck movers on D and playing with pace, opening up the neutral zone with speed, creating odd man chances, that is where it begins. Just look at the Habs D? Wow!!! That is on paper the worst D in the league (possibly ever in Mtl). As for Caufield he needs to start playing in traffic and going to dirty areas. That is if he plays another game in the NHL. Not many players are paying the price anymore. The ones that are will be back next year. Its fairly clear who the keepers are.

Remember the other team tosses their best line against Suzuki, Toffoli. If they have the other pieces 4 lines and puck movers and a goalie they trust life gets easier.

 

[KevSkillz4]

It's funny some people in this thread say that he is a 50 points player, last year he is on pace 60 points in 82 games. This guy is a 65-75 points per season... even PPG C type, no doubt about that.

This guy is a true offensive talent with a great two-way ability, high hockey IQ and hockey IQ is the most important for a elite player... looks like Lars Eller, he never become a top 6 player because his lacking of hockey IQ. Suzuki got high hockey IQ.

 

[Mandalorian]

If he becomes a 60-70 point two way center sure, if he becomes a 50-60 center with a average defense not a chance this is a good deal.

Not saying Suzuki is a sure shot to be worth is contract, but I don't think Nick will be an average defensive center, that would mean his play has regressed. He is already pretty dominant at the other end of the rink:

 

[lamp9post]

Agree suz is a 50 pts player, and hes the problem, not That trash team or player like armia making 3,4m doing NOTHING. Let Bash the elite talent we have in good ol habs fashion.

It will be like Koivu all over again:

Player not capable of single handedly carrying team gets blamed for not single handedly carrying team.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I am not being ultra negative I like Suzuki but should he be paid close to 8m ?

Calling him a 50pt C when he's already had 41P in 56 games at age 21 is an extremely negative outlook in my opinion. This season has been about as close to a worst case scenario as you can get and he's still pacing for 50, that should indicate that the upside is quite a bit higher under normal circumstances.

I absolutely think that Suzuki is worth the equivalent of 750k more than 2010 Plekanec when you consider the fact we're locking in his entire prime age 23-30 seasons instead of having to extend him again at 27 or 28. 7.8M is currently in line to be the 19th highest AAV among C's when it kicks in next year, and that excludes Kadri, Malkin, Bergeron, and Hertl who are pending UFAs. His contract will already be down to #23 among centres by opening night next season unless Bergeron takes a discount to stay in Boston, and it'll drop further into the low 3os in the next 2-3 years as guys on bridge contracts or nearing the end of their current long term deals get extensions.

Sure the Habs suck but elite players find a way to perform.

He's not an elite player, nor is he paid like one. If he signed an extension for 10.5M I wouldn't be bringing up Hoffman and ice cold Caufield as an excuse, but he didn't. He's not good enough to carry around Hoffman and a struggling Caufield, but that isn't a problem because his scoring has immediately rebounded playing with Lehkonen and Toffoli. (1p in 10 games with Hoffman, 8p in 7 games with Toffoli + Evans/Lehkonen since then). It's not going to be particularly difficult to find him two linemates that are around that level of talent in the future. I really just don't see the problem here. The frustration seems to stem from the idea we got sold a bill of goods and paid an elite price for a non-elite player, and I agree with you that he's not an elite player or worth an elite price, but he just flatly isn't paid to be one.

I don't see why given his play.

With all due respect, did you watch the playoffs? This is a player who's already had a 60P pace season and is defensively responsible, skilled, creative with the puck, and has a ton of room to continue developing.

Also his supposed two way game is over hyped, he made a lot of mistakes last year, losing pucks in key areas. People compare him to Bergeron who already had two 70 points season at the time, this is a joke.
Again I like Suzuki and I hope I am wrong but I don t see him as a 1C.

I think he will be a 1C in the sense he will be in the top 32 centers in the league but yeah I do agree that he doesn't seem like the type of player who will be your 1st line superstar C that carries a contender. Really the Bruins comp in terms of value (Bergeron makes sense in terms of playstyle but of course not in actual impact) is Krejci. A contending team still needs a Krejci, and I'm ultimately just unsure why people are upset that Suzuki who projects like Krejci and is paid like Krejci isn't projecting to end up like Bergeron/Barkov/prime Toews.

 

[Belial]

Not saying Suzuki is a sure shot to be worth is contract, but I don't think Nick will be an average defensive center, that would mean his play has regressed. He is already pretty dominant at the other end of the rink:
View attachment 505072

I would like to know how exactly they come up with that 96% EV Defence for Suzuki cuz the underlying numbers are bad.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Zuki to Boston e4

 

[dinodebino]

Zuki to Boston e4

Or 37 to Mtl e4, because Hughes

 

[Mandalorian]

I would like to know how exactly they come up with that 96% EV Defence for Suzuki cuz the underlying numbers are bad.

JFresh explanation is that EV Def and PK WAR is about how the player limits on-ice scoring chances compared to his peers.

 

[1909]

If he becomes a 60-70 point two way center sure, if he becomes a 50-60 center with a average defense not a chance this is a good deal.

Danault would had helped him a lot by being the #2 centerman behind him.

 

[iamtalbot]

Bergeron to Montreal E5

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Agree suz is a 50 pts player, and hes the problem, not That trash team or player like armia making 3,4m doing NOTHING. Let Bash the elite talent we have in good ol habs fashion.

Suzuki with actual wingers that ends up with more than 45 points a season could legit end up with 60-65 points a season. People who think Suzuki is a low 2nd center are simply stupid.

 

[sandviper]

Regardless if Suzuki is worth his extension or not, he is easily our best forward on the team and as such deserves to be the highest paid.

I mean, there’s at least other forwards on this team who aren’t worth their contracts; Gallagher, Armia and Hoffman.

But sure, let’s bash one of our youngest and most creative players who actually plays decent defence also.

 

[MadMslm]

I am not being ultra negative I like Suzuki but should he be paid close to 8m ? I don't see why given his play. Sure the Habs suck but elite players find a way to perform. He should become a very good 2C in my opinion but overpaid if the ceiling remains quite flat, as it should in the next 2/3 years.

Also his supposed two way game is over hyped, he made a lot of mistakes last year, losing pucks in key areas. People compare him to Bergeron who already had two 70 points season at the time, this is a joke.

Again I like Suzuki and I hope I am wrong but I don t see him as a 1C.

I don’t see how his contract is not fair value when compared to other centers around the league.

If he can reach around 60pts a season, he will be worth it especially with his performances in the playoffs.

Last year, he was elite in the first 10 games, not just good but elite.

After that stretch, he was invisible for a long stretch (and if you look at the gdts you will see how many times I complained about barely hearing his name), but he would still find a way to get points here and there.

11pts - 10 games

14pts - 30 games

16pts - 16 games

That’s pretty good for a 21 years old center who’s only playing his second season in the league.

When you factor in the age and experience, he’s making as much as other comparables around the league. We can sit down and argue if every penny is worth it, but at the end of the day it’s the market that determines the value of a player.

Even if he ends up as a high end second center, the deal will still be good. Look at what teams are paying their second center around the league, and tell me which center making less than Suzuki you would take in a 1v1 trade.

We could also sit and watch games of Bergeron and O’Reilly, trust me we would find a lot of mistakes (and that’s after years in the league, imagine them at the beginning of their career).

I don’t think he will be as consistent as those two, but his defensive play at 21 is pretty impressive when you consider everything.

Contract is worth it. They bought unrestricted years, his value in cap % is a just a bit higher than what Plekanec contract was worth and waiting more time to make him sign a bridge deal would have hurt the habs if he explode offensively. If he doesn’t, it’s still around what is happening elsewhere in the league.

When Subban got his big contract, everyone was hating on Bergevin for that bridge deal instead of making him sign a long contract. He learned from that and went right for the big contract so he could control the value. But now, let’s crap on Bergevin for doing the opposite.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Bergeron to Montreal E5

It's crazy to me that this meme has survived for nearly 20 years.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Bergeron to Montreal E5

I would to have Bergeron, but he is going to be a Boston forever.

Letang is realistic target for Habs and a really good one too.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

I would to have Bergeron, but he is going to be a Boston forever.

Letang is realistic target for Habs and a really good one too.

I bet Letang will leave Crosby and Malkin to play on a rebuilding team.
Id rather get Subban back than signing Letang for a rebuilding season.
Atleast Subban would be dirt cheap and people in Montreal actually loved him. Right now the team sucks and the players are not even ''cool'' except Suzuki , Subban would gave us good memory will rebuilding.

 

[WinterLion]

That's adorable.