NHL & Vegas Part Deuces Wild: Betting it all on Black (Knights)

[HanSolo]

As comparison, Montreal had two MLB pre-season games last year, 96000 total attended both games. Does that make Montreal the best city for an MLB team? No. Because it was a happening and if ever there was a team that relocated/expanded to Montreal people would lose interest as soon as the team struggled on the field. I fear this is what will happen in Vegas. At first, sure, it will be fine. What happens after the first honeymoon year though, watch out.

All speculative. I could say it'll be a sell out city for the first three years and my prediction would carry just as much weight.

You obviously are dead set on believing this will be a failure so more power to you. You stamping your feet for Quebec City isn't going to deter the NHL one way or the other.

 

[HanSolo]

I was just a baby back then but I'm pretty sure people thought Anaheim was gonna be a massive failure as well. That southern California doesn't know or care about hockey and the people that do are Kings fans.

I just think confidence in the thought that this will certainly fail and can't possibly succeed in any fashion is just absurd really.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I was just a baby back then but I'm pretty sure people thought Anaheim was gonna be a massive failure as well.

Believe it or not, I still encounter people at HF who think the Ducks ARE a massive failure and should be relocated to Markham.

 

[Killion]

There is. It's because a certain section of fans feel entitled to the game when they are not.

There's that deserving word again.

I don't see how it is entitlement to want an NHL team in your city. A team which would be in a proven market, with money on the table and a brand new infrastructure. That isn't entitlement, it is facts.

Maybe you are right but maybe it won't work out no? I mean it is by no means necessary a sure bet. Quebec is.

It's entitlement when you feel like you deserve it and/or then project to others that they don't deserve it...especially when the item in question is a privilege.

I consider such posts, that people from market X feel "entitled" little more than drive-byes. Smear jobs. Best ya'll cease & desist from that meme from this point forward.... As Braun correctly points out, it is only sensible & prudent that one build ones house or in this case league on a solid foundation. Thats all proponents of Quebec & Southern Ontario are stating, laying claim to. That it simply does not compute, never made sense to be expanding into untested foreign to the game climes when youve not yet completed pouring the foundations in the heartland that would then give you the kind of stability necessary to then explore & expand into places like Nevada, Arizona, Texas & Florida, Alabama or wherever. Clearly however that horse left the barn over 40yrs and so here we are.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I consider such posts, that people from market X feel "entitled" little more than drive-byes. Smear jobs. Best ya'll cease & desist from that meme from this point forward.... As Braun correctly points out, it is only sensible & prudent that one build ones house or in this case league on a solid foundation. Thats all proponents of Quebec & Southern Ontario are stating, laying claim to. That it simply does not compute, never made sense to be expanding into untested foreign to the game climes when youve not yet completed pouring the foundations in the heartland that would then give you the kind of stability necessary to then explore & expand into places like Nevada, Arizona, Texas & Florida, Alabama or wherever. Clearly however that horse left the barn over 40yrs and so here we are.

Except it's a Vegas thread.

 

[Killion]

I just think confidence in the thought that this will certainly fail and can't possibly succeed in any fashion is just absurd really.

Anyone automatically assuming such would be making a mistake. However, this is the NHL were talking about and their record in planting franchises in the Southwest & Florida is beyond abysmal so people will quite naturally be beyond skeptical... in this case even more so considering the market/city itself, the Maloof Factor and a number of other issues. Fact is we just dont have enough information & details, particularly as it relates to the Lease Agreement, what the club can expect to receive beyond just the gate for 41 home games & so on. These are serious questions, all weve heard so far is that ya, Lease Agreement in place. Same thing we heard in Phoenix from the NHL, Burke & Gluckstern in 96, Colangelo effectively bending them over, no win situation, guaranteed insolvency. Regardless, this is a done deal in my opinion. Better get used to the idea, try & find out what the arrangements actually are & hope for the best. I sure dont want to see it fail, and its ok to criticize provided its constructive.

 

[KevFu]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...s-no-done-deal-on-vegas-team/article22905786/

Bettman also said he wasn’t concerned about putting a team in a city that has legal sports betting, noting that hockey is not nearly as heavily bet as basketball and football.

You know why that is Gary? Because people on the whole don't care about the NHL.

Because it’s really stupid for people to be concerned about a pro sports team in a place with legal sports gambling. People have a mental network in their brains that associate Vegas with gambling, sports gambling with fixing games, and therefore Vegas teams with fixing games.

But it’s absolutely illogical to think a Vegas franchise increases the odds of sports fixing.

Any reason to be worried about sports fixing exist everywhere in the US/Canada whether there’s a team in Vegas or not, or whether sports gambling is legal or not. Why does proximity to a casino matter?

This isn’t the 1919 Chicago Black Sox, where the gamblers had to meet the players in person because telegrams and phone operators created witnesses. It’s 2015, you can download an app that encrypts and deletes text & voice messages.

(And the second to last major sports fixing scandal was in the 1980s, when members of the NEW YORK mob and PITTSBURGH hoods worked together to fix BOSTON COLLEGE games. Emphasized location because proximity to the players & casinos didn’t really matter, now did it?)

It's already state law that Nevada-based teams are not allowed to be offered in the books.

Gaming Regulation 22.120(b) lifted the ban in 2001.

I hate this sooooo much that if there is a team I will never watch it. Horrible that Vegas gets a team before Quebec. I hate this jdisbwhaysywnenehridnde

That’s non-sense. (Aside from the fact that Quebec DID get a team well before Vegas!), Some markets don’t get teams before others based on their “worthiness.†They get teams based on ponying up the dough. I’ve heard a lot of talk about how badly Quebec wants a team… but where’s the guy with the checkbook in his hand saying “just tell e how much to make this out for†?

 

[HanSolo]

Anyone automatically assuming such would be making a mistake. However, this is the NHL were talking about and their record in planting franchises in the Southwest & Florida is beyond abysmal so people will quite naturally be beyond skeptical... in this case even more so considering the market/city itself, the Maloof Factor and a number of other issues. Fact is we just dont have enough information & details, particularly as it relates to the Lease Agreement, what the club can expect to receive beyond just the gate for 41 home games & so on. These are serious questions, all weve heard so far is that ya, Lease Agreement in place. Same thing we heard in Phoenix from the NHL, Burke & Gluckstern in 96, Colangelo effectively bending them over, no win situation, guaranteed insolvency. Regardless, this is a done deal in my opinion. Better get used to the idea, try & find out what the arrangements actually are & hope for the best. I sure dont want to see it fail, and its ok to criticize provided its constructive.

Sure it is. [MOD] Just assurances of failure. Based on deductions and speculations. If I said the Aces are going to become a financial success and win a cup in their first 5 years, that statement while absurd holds just about as much value as saying once the honeymoon season is over, they're screwed. There is absolutely no way of knowing that.

Also if Anaheim is a metric of failure in the NHL, then I've got no interest being in this subforum anymore. Though it shouldn't surprise me. The negative feedback that surrounded the outdoor game between LA and Anaheim was equal parts shocking and hilarious. It's tough for me not to view anti sun belt expansion critics as tremendously biased by traditionalist ideals and standpoints.

At the end of the day, in my view, just wants another team in the Quebec province. I doubt he would care as much if QC was announced as the second expansion team. I understand that may sound hypocritical given how much I've been defending Vegas, but in my case there's a small part of me that doesn't want a team here. I fear the loss of the SoCal FSN broadcasts. I anticipate the local team will distract me from the team I am a die hard for. I mostly just come into these discussions as someone sick of the people who are adamantly against expansion to this area of the country and more for clubs going to areas that already have plenty of hockey teams. And because there are so many people who are completely, or almost completely ignorant about this city. Anyone who implies that all this city is, is the strip, is completely wrong. Stuff like that annoys the **** out of me.

 

[stchamp98]

I consider such posts, that people from market X feel "entitled" little more than drive-byes. Smear jobs. Best ya'll cease & desist from that meme from this point forward.... As Braun correctly points out, it is only sensible & prudent that one build ones house or in this case league on a solid foundation. Thats all proponents of Quebec & Southern Ontario are stating, laying claim to. That it simply does not compute, never made sense to be expanding into untested foreign to the game climes when youve not yet completed pouring the foundations in the heartland that would then give you the kind of stability necessary to then explore & expand into places like Nevada, Arizona, Texas & Florida, Alabama or wherever. Clearly however that horse left the barn over 40yrs and so here we are.

Yes and no. While you certainly want to clean your own house before you clean someone else's, there's also something to be said for the potentially incredibly prosperous opportunity that comes from being the person to create a market where one previously did not exist. After all, that's the backbone of the founding of the U.S. economy. Bettman and the league may not have executed properly and failures came about as a result of that poor execution but the idea that expansion into untested markets is a losing proposition is something I believe does not compute.

Never mind the fact that expansion is really only on the table because of expansion revenues that ownership will not have to split with players.

 

[Mightygoose]

I’ve heard a lot of talk about how badly Quebec wants a team… but where’s the guy with the checkbook in his hand saying “just tell me how much to make this out for†?

No problem on that front, you just need a person to want that cheque in the first place.

At the end of the day, this should be more about Vegas's chance to prove themselves that the support is there and we'll find out in the coming weeks.

To QC supporters, don't fret over this drive, going to Vegas is not necessarily exclusive of other markets down the road.

If QC is #3 on the priority list, I think one would want this drive to succeed, there are other shoes to drop here and it will bring them closer to fruition in my view.

 

[GuelphStormer]

That's true, but I don't think that's the equivalency we're looking at here.

A better comparison would be to think of a car dealership. One buyer knows what model he wants, what price he'll haggle to, what incentives he'll get, etc. His sale will take a lot shorter time than it would for someone who walks on the lot knowing he wants a car but little else. In the end, though, they both drive off the lot in a car, and if the car is any good they'll both be happy with it and shop at that dealership again.

I think the bottom line that you and I both agree on is that a) Vegas will never be mistaken for Winnipeg/QC in terms of demand for NHL hockey, but b) their progress in their ticket drive is happening faster than we thought it would.

i like your analogy. and yes, i think we do agree that vegas is a unique market and what's happening so far is quite impressive.

I agree with much of what your saying GS in that the NHL is going to measure how this drive goes. But we both know that isn't real reason why people are dragging Winnipeg's STH drive into this discussion.

yes, we all have our agenda's and torches, mine's the hammer. true dat. and yes, i think the league will be watching very keenly what happens in vegas. and how things play out here will quite likely have an impact on how the league will want to pursue other markets. notwithstanding what certainly appears to be quite a unique market, folks will gain some general understand of what and what not to do when 'selling' an nhl team to a city.

if this works and they get a team, hats off to some very clever folks.

 

[Hoodaha]

i like your analogy. and yes, i think we do agree that vegas is a unique market and what's happening so far is quite impressive.

Vegas is like no other market and is completely untried by top level sports. The NHL sees Vegas as an opportunity. They want to be the first in the door in a market of over 2 million people. If all goes well (and nothing is ever guaranteed with a new market), then they will not only build a local fanbase, and tap a very large set of corporate sponsors, but they will also have potential to expose literally millions of visitors a year to the game of hockey.

Now, this could certainly all fall flat on its face. The devil is in the details. If the team is completely hapless and poorly run, it will do poorly - much like the Panthers, who despite being in the league for quite a long time, have only had a few "successful" seasons. If they can get a team in Vegas and build a team capable of competing relatively quickly, there is potential there. New fans won't go to games forever if the team isn't competitive. How things are really going in Vegas won't be known until the 4th or 5th year, when the team will still likely be subpar, but some of the newness will have worn off.

The number of tickets sold in 36 hours has been promising, but I am curious to see how things go from here.

I'd love to see another non-traditional market succeed. California has taken off in the last 20 years. It now has 3 NHL teams and 5 AHL teams (next year). I don't see why Vegas would be all that much different, given the right conditions. It's only 4 hours from LA.

 

[HanSolo]

Vegas is like no other market and is completely untried by top level sports. The NHL sees Vegas as an opportunity. They want to be the first in the door in a market of over 2 million people. If all goes well (and nothing is ever guaranteed with a new market), then they will not only build a local fanbase, and tap a very large set of corporate sponsors, but they will also have potential to expose literally millions of visitors a year to the game of hockey.

Now, this could certainly all fall flat on its face. The devil is in the details. If the team is completely hapless and poorly run, it will do poorly - much like the Panthers, who despite being in the league for quite a long time, have only had a few "successful" seasons. If they can get a team in Vegas and build a team capable of competing relatively quickly, there is potential there. New fans won't go to games forever if the team isn't competitive. How things are really going in Vegas won't be known until the 4th or 5th year, when the team will still likely be subpar, but some of the newness will have worn off.

The number of tickets sold in 36 hours has been promising, but I am curious to see how things go from here.

I'd love to see another non-traditional market succeed. California has taken off in the last 20 years. It now has 3 NHL teams and 5 AHL teams (next year). I don't see why Vegas would be all that much different, given the right conditions. It's only 4 hours from LA.

There's something not being mentioned at all.

 

[KevFu]

This. Quebec City would have sold 10k+ in 36... MINUTES!

I VERY MUCH WANT THE NORDIQUES BACK, ASAP. But:

A - Wanting Quebec more than Vegas doesn’t make it okay to poop on other markets just to poop on other markets.
B - Don’t be mad at Vegas for trying to make it happen. Be mad at Quebec for NOT taking these steps to gain momentum.

We keep talking about “Vegas†or “Quebec†as if the market is what matters. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. Where’s the ownership group in Quebec? Where’s the Quebec ticket drive?

The FANS of Quebec City have shown time and time again they deserve an NHL franchise. The politicians failed to deliver in the 90s (forcing the Nordiques out). And who’s stepping up in Quebec for the NHL to listen to? You can’t blast the NHL for listening to Maloof/Foley when you don’t have a guy in Quebec beating on the NHL’s door hollering “let us in.â€

No problem on that front, you just need a person to want that cheque in the first place.

At the end of the day, this should be more about Vegas's chance to prove themselves that the support is there and we'll find out in the coming weeks.

To QC supporters, don't fret over this drive, going to Vegas is not necessarily exclusive of other markets down the road.

If QC is #3 on the priority list, I think one would want this drive to succeed, there are other shoes to drop here and it will bring them closer to fruition in my view.

I thought that was the case as well with Quebecor: They have said publicly they are interest and want to make this happen. But then we see Vegas doing what they’re doing, and it makes me think Foley & Maloof are waiving the checkbooks and saying “What’s it going to take to make this happen?â€

But Quebecor isn’t. If the NHL asked them to sit tight because QC needs to be NHL team #33 or #34 and can’t be #31-#32; then I get it. But isn’t this the time for QC to be saying “Hey, if Vegas wants in, expansion needs to be done by twos!â€

Plus, it's demand-based. The Las Vegas 51's work, because it's a 15,000 seat ballpark that is accustomed to 8,000-9,000 averages. A Las Vegas MLB team would require a 30,000 average, which I don't think is feasible.

Also, that's an 81 game schedule for baseball, as opposed to 41 for hockey or basketball.

Well, it's also standards-based, like I mentioned with minor league baseball. Since MLS is basing their goals more around the German Bundesliga than the Premier League, it may have a minor league feel, but at least the expectations have allowed the league to thrive.

'Course, I'm an Indy Eleven fan, and I'm waiting on us joining the MLS in a decade.

On topic, Vegas is doing this a lot faster than I had thought. Really interesting.

The baseball costs are enormous. They’d need a dome with AC, which is massively expensive and limited in use compared to a 20,000 seat, NBA/NHL arena. And many people still wouldn’t want to go out in the summer to get to the AC’d stadium. They’d probably need more population to support baseball.


Don’t get me started on the debacle of MLS expansion. They had the perfect chance to divide and conquer the United States, but bungled it in the chase for a “big five†TV contract.

it speaks directly to the gate market strength of the two cities. that vegas is taking longer to sell fewer ticket deposits CLEARLY demonstrates the relative strength of that market ... and here's where it becomes even more important ... it also shows the potential strength of market viability.

now, does it mean that hockey in vegas will not work? no. does it mean it will work? no. what it does mean is, the longer it takes to sell all deposits, the weaker the market looks, whether that market is vegas, or winnipeg, or even the moon.

I kind of agree in general, but there’s a massive difference between “We got a team (BACK), who’s buying tickets!†and people jumping for joy, freaking out and buying tickets like hotcakes (as in Winnipeg)… And people being told “Give us money! And maybe it will help us get a team! If it doesn’t, you’ll get it back. Eventually. Trust us. For nothing tangible in return.â€

Comparing the Vegas to Winnipeg is silly. Now if we did a Apples-To-Apples phantom ticket drive in: Las Vegas, Seattle, Portland, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee out west and Quebec, Markham, Hamilton in the east and took a look at the results… THAT would be interesting/worthwhile to compare. And based on the results, we take Vegas & (second western city with built arena) first; Quebec & Seattle second, and hold spaces for Hamilton and Houston.

As comparison, Montreal had two MLB pre-season games last year, 96000 total attended both games. Does that make Montreal the best city for an MLB team? No.

I don’t know that those two items are in anyway related… but OF COURSE Montreal absolutely IS THE BEST CITY FOR AN MLB TEAM out of those who don’t currently have one. Who’d be better? Montreal is twice the size of any US DMA that doesn’t have an MLB team.

 

[Fenway]

I VERY MUCH WANT THE NORDIQUES BACK, ASAP. But:

A - Wanting Quebec more than Vegas doesn’t make it okay to poop on other markets just to poop on other markets.
B - Don’t be mad at Vegas for trying to make it happen. Be mad at Quebec for NOT taking these steps to gain momentum.

A few weeks ago Strombo had an interview with 3 NHL owners and in it Jacobs said 'If you want a team discuss it with Gary and do not use the media'.

Foley was told to do the ticket drive. Quebec doesn't need to do so because everyone knows the arena would be sold out in minutes when and if the day comes.

Quebecor has been told to keep a low profile. Bettman's only recent remarks on Quebec is he has been following the arena's progress via webcam.

Bettman has some sort of strategy for Quebec City but he won't tip his hand. The only thing Gary can't control is the arena situation in Seattle.

 

[HanSolo]

A few weeks ago Strombo had an interview with 3 NHL owners and in it Jacobs said 'If you want a team discuss it with Gary and do not use the media'.

Foley was told to do the ticket drive. Quebec doesn't need to do so because everyone knows the arena would be sold out in minutes when and if the day comes.

Quebecor has been told to keep a low profile. Bettman's only recent remarks on Quebec is he has been following the arena's progress via webcam.

Bettman has some sort of strategy for Quebec City but he won't tip his hand. The only thing Gary can't control is the arena situation in Seattle.

And Winnipeg's potential to do so was more dubious? I don't think so.

 

[Killion]

...Anyone who implies that all this city is, is the strip, is completely wrong. Stuff like that annoys the **** out of me.

... ya, I hear ya DuckJet. I have friends who live in Vegas and though not within the context of hockey or even sports in general, they rail against the sort of stereotypical stigma that Vegas suffers from. That sort of thing not unique to Las Vegas, affects places like Whistler, Aspen, Monaco & other major destinations. Ive lived in a couple of them & whenever anyone asks where your from or live, incorrect assumptions made.

Bettman has some sort of strategy for Quebec City but he won't tip his hand.

I believe so, yes. Somethings been agreed to, NHL on its way. Just how & when, no idea, but Im guessing Vegas & QC joining for the 2017 season.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Except it's a Vegas thread.

Yes and because the NHL is considering a new market in Vegas, comparing other markets (established or otherwise) where there were previous pros and cons is open for discussion here. Providing the overall context fits neatly within the rules of this Forum.

 

[Fenway]

And Winnipeg's potential to do so was more dubious? I don't think so.

Winnipeg did not do a ticket drive until Bettman gave the OK.

Balsillie did a ticket drive in Hamilton which killed any chance the BoG would allow him to enter the club.

 

[kdb209]

This is not a Quebec thread. It is not a Winnipeg thread. It is not a "my ticket drive can sell more than your ticket drive" thread.

Keep discussion to subjects related to the NHL and Las Vegas.

 

[Gormo]

I was just a baby back then but I'm pretty sure people thought Anaheim was gonna be a massive failure as well. That southern California doesn't know or care about hockey and the people that do are Kings fans.

I just think confidence in the thought that this will certainly fail and can't possibly succeed in any fashion is just absurd really.

I suppose there is a chance it may work, but after taking a look at some of the stumbling blocks that would need to be overcome for an NHL team to flourish in Las Vegas it certainly isnt something I would bet on.

Their minor league team is done, after only 11 years. Seems a bit counterintuitive to believe a major league team will be a success in spite of this.

In contrast to its glamorous reputation, Las Vegas citizens do not seem well off (comparatively speaking) The city has fallen on difficult times and it is unfortunate.

While this season ticket sampling drive (or whatever) is encouraging, its far from convincing.

All that really matters is 10-15 years down the road, where it ought to be perfectly reasonable to demand the franchise at least be able tread water, in spite of what will very likely be very limited success.

Really a daunting task imo when you draw comparisons to other cities the NHL has decided to dive head first into. Their past efforts in this regard do not inspire confidence, and I would certainly never rely on their judgement.

I can only hope they know something I dont and have learned from their mistakes.

 

[Hoodaha]

Their minor league team is done, after only 11 years. Seems a bit counterintuitive to believe a major league team will be a success in spite of this.

The minor league team in Vegas is gone because the arena at Orleans kicked them out, not because it wasn't supported. After seeking a new lease elsewhere and having no luck, they folded. Then the interest in putting an NHL team there became public. Why push to find a spot there for an ECHL team after that?

 

[MNNumbers]

I saw the tweet that said 5000 commitments already sold.

My reaction:

1) Cool. I like that. I am impressed. However....

1a) These are sales people. 5000 quoted may mean more like 3500. Which would still be impressive... However...

1aa) The founding 75 were supposed to sell 60 tickets apiece. They have been ahead of the game in being on the ground selling these. 75*60 = 4500 tickets right there. So, it is well possible that the 2nd half will be harder to sell than the first half.

Overall, I say that I think this is going better than I expected. The viability of the operation really depends on 2 things:

1) The lease Foley has with MGM
2) How far the league will continue to move in their finances, given that, increasingly, it seems they want a 1/30 or 1/31 of the league attitude. I mean by this that more and more revenue seems to be exchanging hands for the sake of lower revenue clubs. That will help the Floridas, Carolinas, Arizonas, and Vegas (I think) stay viable.

 

[HanSolo]

... ya, I hear ya DuckJet. I have friends who live in Vegas and though not within the context of hockey or even sports in general, they rail against the sort of stereotypical stigma that Vegas suffers from. That sort of thing not unique to Las Vegas, affects places like Whistler, Aspen, Monaco & other major destinations. Ive lived in a couple of them & whenever anyone asks where your from or live, incorrect assumptions made.



I believe so, yes. Somethings been agreed to, NHL on its way. Just how & when, no idea, but Im guessing Vegas & QC joining for the 2017 season.

It's just frustrating. This city is so much more than 5-8 miles of massive casinos.

And the whole, this city is struggling thing is bordering on grossly overstated.

 

[knorthern knight]

I'm almost positive that the NHL doesn't want to go to 34, but I also don't think they'll only expand to 31. They have two open spots in the Western Conference and it's no secret they want in on Seattle, so it's Seattle/Vegas IMO.

Due to the folding/merger of the Cleveland Barons into the Minnesota North Stars, the NHL operated with an uneven number of teams from the 1978-79 season through the 1990-91 season. It wasn't until the 1992-92 1991-92 season, with the addition of the San Jose Sharks, that they evened things up. Ditto for the 1998-99 season, because Nashville started that season, while Atlanta Thrashers didn't start until 1999-00. An uneven number of teams is not a showstopper for the NHL. As a matter of fact, a 16-15 split is closer to being even than a 16-14 split. Plus, with the playoff wild-card system, it won't be an unfair advantage. Not that the expansion team is going to be in the playoffs too soon, anyways.