NHL & Vegas Part Deuces Wild: Betting it all on Black (Knights)

[The Feckless Puck]

Didn't Winnipeg sell out in mere minutes? I don't see 5k sold in 36 hours as being anything to really brag about.

Perhaps we should add this as a stickied link for this board: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/context?s=t

I think that since many of Vegas' critics opined that it would take them five months to get to where they are in 36 hours, we should be more optimistic than you are being.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I'd also say that there's a difference between selling a set number of season tickets when you knew that a team was coming and that the team would be coming in a mere couple months versus selling a set number of season ticket deposits when you're not sure if a team's coming and have no clue what the general time table is.

Granted, yes... Winnipeggers paid a lot more than Las Vegans are putting down in deposits, but if Vegas is able to get 10k+ commitments before a barn is built and before a team is promised, does it really matter if it takes them days or weeks?

 

[TheLegend]

Perhaps we should add this as a stickied link for this board: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/context?s=t

I think that since many of Vegas' critics opined that it would take them five months to get to where they are in 36 hours, we should be more optimistic than you are being.

I was wondering how long it would take for the Winnipeg reference to pop up.

#NeenerNeenerFactor

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Didn't Winnipeg sell out in mere minutes? I don't see 5k sold in 36 hours as being anything to really brag about.

Vegas is actually quite a poor city. Outside of the strip it really looks like it's been hit hard by the recession. Really, if not for the strip there'd be nothing there. Even on the strip all the casinos either have, or are currently in bankruptcy protection. Even the mammoth Caesars chain is bankrupt. I just don't see this working out very well.

This. Quebec City would have sold 10k+ in 36... MINUTES!

 

[IceAce]

Vegas is actually quite a poor city. Outside of the strip it really looks like it's been hit hard by the recession. Really, if not for the strip there'd be nothing there. Even on the strip all the casinos either have, or are currently in bankruptcy protection. Even the mammoth Caesars chain is bankrupt. I just don't see this working out very well.

Have you been frozen in a cryogenic state since 2008? If so, welcome back!

http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/25801489/report-vegas-area-employment-will-rebound-by-2016

http://www.8newsnow.com/story/25799311/experts-las-vegas-economy-making-a-strong-comeback

 

[TheLegend]

This. Quebec City would have sold 10k+ in 36... MINUTES!

And as it was pointed out.... in context it means absolutely nothing.

 

[GindyDraws]

Baseball requires a larger market than almost any sport. With all the concerns people have with Vegas selling tickets to a 41/43 game schedule in a 17,500 person arena, the idea of selling 81 games for a 40,000 park is almost insane.

Schedule-wise it would likely work out better, but I think the work schedule issue here is a bit overblown. Plus, baseball doesn't really like day games much, either.

Plus, it's demand-based. The Las Vegas 51's work, because it's a 15,000 seat ballpark that is accustomed to 8,000-9,000 averages. A Las Vegas MLB team would require a 30,000 average, which I don't think is feasible.

Also, that's an 81 game schedule for baseball, as opposed to 41 for hockey or basketball.

I know, it was a low blow

I like MLS. I go to a ton a Fire games. Going to a Fire game feels like going to a minor league game. In most cities, I'm sure that's the sentiment. Small stadium, cheap tickets, going more to tailgate than see the game itself.

So for Seattle to make soccer Major League by jamming 40000 in every game and several that sell out CenturkLink entirely, that's saying something. If that town can't get behind an NHL team, I don't know what's wrong with the world.

Well, it's also standards-based, like I mentioned with minor league baseball. Since MLS is basing their goals more around the German Bundesliga than the Premier League, it may have a minor league feel, but at least the expectations have allowed the league to thrive.

'Course, I'm an Indy Eleven fan, and I'm waiting on us joining the MLS in a decade.

On topic, Vegas is doing this a lot faster than I had thought. Really interesting.

 

[Mightygoose]

Good start. I'm curious to know how many of the 10,000 or so registered they have yet to go through.

Should be able to reach it within a week IMO.

 

[stchamp98]

Wife and I have hit Vegas a couple times every year for the past few years now. Sister in law got a teaching job down there (They do pretty well in NV compared to a lot of other states, like MT) and we always get down for the rodeo and I can tell you from my experience that the city as a whole has made a massive jump economically from 2007-2008. The recession just hammered that city, as was expected for a city so dependent on tourism dollars but as the housing market is slowly recovering and the unemployment rate is tapering off things have gotten much rosier there. All the locals are excited and it's been good to see.

Vegas as a market definitely doesn't have a hockey feel to it and even if it did it obviously wouldn't compare to many Canadian markets (QC, GTA etc.) but from a pure business standpoint I fully understand why the league would want to put a team here first as opposed to going North. And at the end of the day, despite all the hate and vitriol thrown his way, this is what Gary was hired to do, to expand the business of the league in accordance with the wishes of franchise ownership. I think a lot of people forget that.

 

[GuelphStormer]

And as it was pointed out.... in context it means absolutely nothing.

au contraire, mon ami. it means everything.

it speaks directly to the gate market strength of the two cities. that vegas is taking longer to sell fewer ticket deposits CLEARLY demonstrates the relative strength of that market ... and here's where it becomes even more important ... it also shows the potential strength of market viability.

now, does it mean that hockey in vegas will not work? no. does it mean it will work? no. what it does mean is, the longer it takes to sell all deposits, the weaker the market looks, whether that market is vegas, or winnipeg, or even the moon.

you can rest assured that all those in decision-making positions here are interested not only in whether the deposits will sell, but how many and how long. that's market viability study 101.

 

[HanSolo]

Didn't Winnipeg sell out in mere minutes? I don't see 5k sold in 36 hours as being anything to really brag about.

Vegas is actually quite a poor city. Outside of the strip it really looks like it's been hit hard by the recession. Really, if not for the strip there'd be nothing there. Even on the strip all the casinos either have, or are currently in bankruptcy protection. Even the mammoth Caesars chain is bankrupt. I just don't see this working out very well.

You might have been right two years ago but this city is in massive recovery right now. For the longest time construction jobs were abandoned, houses even around my neighborhood were empty with for sale signs collecting dust, office and business spaces remained empty. If you lived here I could list off every single notable one I've seen and you'd know what I was talking about. All but one of those places now have tenants or have resumed or finished construction. And that's the proposed Durango Station hotel and Casino and I'm pretty sure that's just cause station casinos realizes how infeasible it is to build it when people in my area are just going to go to Red Rock or Town Square anyway.

And yes if not for the strip there wouldn't be anything here now. Take away the strip and there's still an infrastructure of business like any other city.

I don't understand the misconception that every business we have here is geared around what happens on the strip and that our schools are just breeding grounds for strip employees.

Also Winnipeg HAD a fanbase of people excited at the chance of getting their team back. It's not fair to compare the two. Also as well as its doing, Foley's group isn't advertising very aggressively either. I've seen one commercial and one billboard by the airport since the drive started.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

it speaks directly to the gate market strength of the two cities. that vegas is taking longer to sell fewer ticket deposits CLEARLY demonstrates the relative strength of that market ... and here's where it becomes even more important ... it also shows the potential strength of market viability.

I disagree. The only thing it represents is a variance in demand. Demand is an indicator of potential market viability but it is not the sole indicator. Too many mitigating factors are part of the overall equation to make blanket statements, including the fact that Vegas is assessing demand from a nascent customer base, versus already-existing customer bases in Winnipeg and QC.

Above all else, weaker demand is not a synonym for insufficient demand. They are two distinct concepts.

 

[HanSolo]

I disagree. The only thing it represents is a variance in demand. Demand is an indicator of potential market viability but it is not the sole indicator. Too many mitigating factors are part of the overall equation to make blanket statements.

Above all else, weaker demand is not a synonym for insufficient demand. They are two distinct concepts.

Especially given the fanbases in Winnipeg had teams they want and wanted revived. Teams with legacy and history. There's no need to create NHL fans there. They already exist.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Especially given the fanbases in Winnipeg had teams they want and wanted revived. Teams with legacy and history. There's no need to create NHL fans there. They already exist.

Yep, I addressed that in edits above.

To construct a metaphor, In Winnipeg/QC, you have fans of Coca-Cola who want a vending machine put in their building. In Las Vegas, you have thirsty people who you're trying to make into Coca-Cola consumers.

 

[tony d]

Looks like this is a when not if thing now. Shame too when there are so many more deserving cities of NHL teams out there.

 

[Acesolid]

Looks like this is a when not if thing now. Shame too when there are so many more deserving cities of NHL teams out there.

I dont get that negative opinion.

There wont be a single team expansion. It'll be multi-teams!

Like Bettman said, he already knows other markets (like Seattle, Portland or Quebec) are already good places for Hockey. And just wants to know if Vegas is too.

You know, I really hope (and know that) Vegas gets a team if their drive succeeds.

HOWEVER, it'd be a travesty if other willing and more able markets aren't also part of this expansion wave.

 

[HanSolo]

There's that deserving word again.

 

[ponder719]

Why is it we can never discuss the expansion potential of another market in the US without having to hear about how Canada "deserves" it more?

I suspect that's because there are several Canadian markets that feel like they're underserved, that there is demand for a team that simply isn't being met. Their preferred league priority is "make sure as many existing fans have a team of their own as possible," whereas those arguing for untapped markets first have as their preferred league priority "put teams in places that will generate new fans."

Fans who prefer the league to satisfy existing fans get frustrated when the league puts teams in places that won't do that, while fans who prefer the league to generate new fans are disappointed when they put teams in places that won't do that. There's no real way to fix this; it's just a matter of each side valuing one thing over the other.

If the league was concerned about such things, they'd probably need to prioritize balance: one team in an untapped area, and one in an underserved area, at the same time. However, it's pretty clear that Bettman agrees with the "untapped area" plan, which aggravates the issue for those fans who disagree with that policy. That's why they're generally more vocal on this issue.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

If the league was concerned about such things, they'd probably need to prioritize balance: one team in an untapped area, and one in an underserved area, at the same time. However, it's pretty clear that Bettman agrees with the "untapped area" plan, which aggravates the issue for those fans who disagree with that policy. That's why they're generally more vocal on this issue.

A complicating factor about the underserved demand in Canada is that it all seems to be coming from areas that are immediately adjacent to existing Canadian markets.

I'll bet you whatever you want that if the same level of demand that is coming out of Hamilton or QC would be coming out of Saskatoon, the league would have already announced an expansion team there for next season.

 

[FlaPantherSwe*]

Especially given the fanbases in Winnipeg had teams they want and wanted revived. Teams with legacy and history. There's no need to create NHL fans there. They already exist.

This guy gets it better to expand the sport im rooting for you and youre city DuckJet

 

[BattleBorn]

I suspect that's because there are several Canadian markets that feel like they're underserved, that there is demand for a team that simply isn't being met. Their preferred league priority is "make sure as many existing fans have a team of their own as possible," whereas those arguing for untapped markets first have as their preferred league priority "put teams in places that will generate new fans."

Fans who prefer the league to satisfy existing fans get frustrated when the league puts teams in places that won't do that, while fans who prefer the league to generate new fans are disappointed when they put teams in places that won't do that. There's no real way to fix this; it's just a matter of each side valuing one thing over the other.

Luckily, vegas satisfies both.

To quote THN: "“The Las Vegas market has favorable resident income and fan demographics,” said Daly, adding that “TV ratings information would suggest a better than passing interest in professional sports and in hockey in particular.”
Last season’s Nielsen ratings for NHL national U.S. telecasts confirm that interest. Vegas ranked 13th among all markets and third among non-NHL markets for viewership of combined NBC and NBCSN telecasts. This season, perhaps sparked by expansion buzz, it ranks ninth overall and first among non-NHL markets of NBCSN games. Daly believes the Las Vegas audience extends beyond those who have a betting interest in the games."

There are fans here. There are a lot of fans here. Let's make sure these existing fans (like myself)"have their own team." In addition, we can expose 2 million residents and 40 million tourists to the greatest live sport on earth and grow the base.

Win/Win.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/would-an-nhl-team-in-las-vegas-be-a-good-gamble/

 

[tp71]

True but if teams manage more revenue than the Florida Panthers even with a weaker dollar they are more profitable no?

Yes and no. It won't help the NHL get their big US television deal they've been striving for, for a long time. Las Vegas presents the possibility for more growth of the game than Quebec does at the moment in the NHL's eyes.

 

[GuelphStormer]

I disagree. The only thing it represents is a variance in demand. Demand is an indicator of potential market viability but it is not the sole indicator. Too many mitigating factors are part of the overall equation to make blanket statements, including the fact that Vegas is assessing demand from a nascent customer base, versus already-existing customer bases in Winnipeg and QC.

Above all else, weaker demand is not a synonym for insufficient demand. They are two distinct concepts.

im not sure i said what you attribute to me. of course, it is not the sole indicator and i never claimed weaker=insufficient.

but surely, this drive is the SINGLE BEST indicator of gate - and thus, market - potential. and comparisons between markets is absolutely an important factor to consider. indeed, daly and bettman have both stated that weak and slow sales will not reflect well on the viability of the vegas market. that said tho, at this time, it certainly appears that with half the deposits and all the suites now sold, demand is fairly strong.

besides, anyone interested in actually buying ST for a team in Vegas surely knows about this drive. it's not a question of needing to advertise it now.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Well, it's also standards-based, like I mentioned with minor league baseball. Since MLS is basing their goals more around the German Bundesliga than the Premier League, it may have a minor league feel, but at least the expectations have allowed the league to thrive.

'Course, I'm an Indy Eleven fan, and I'm waiting on us joining the MLS in a decade.

On topic, Vegas is doing this a lot faster than I had thought. Really interesting.

I don't understand the bold sentence at all...

 

[The Feckless Puck]

but surely, this drive is the SINGLE BEST indicator of gate - and thus, market - potential. and comparisons between markets is absolutely an important factor to consider. indeed, daly and bettman have both stated that weak and slow sales will not reflect well on the viability of the vegas market. that said tho, at this time, it certainly appears that with half the deposits and all the suites now sold, demand is fairly strong.

I think that Bettman and Daly were contextualizing "weak and slow sales" as being a matter of weeks or months, though.

It's all relative. Had Winnipeg only sold out its season tickets in two weeks, that would have been seen as a failure in that context. So the pace Vegas is on, for their context, is most likely exceeding even the most optimistic estimates so far.