NHL & Vegas Part Deuces Wild: Betting it all on Black (Knights)

[stchamp98]

A complicating factor about the underserved demand in Canada is that it all seems to be coming from areas that are immediately adjacent to existing Canadian markets.

I'll bet you whatever you want that if the same level of demand that is coming out of Hamilton or QC would be coming out of Saskatoon, the league would have already announced an expansion team there for next season.

Assuming Saskatoon had the population base and an arena venue, absolutely. It wouldn't even be a question in my mind that Saskatoon would have a team tomorrow under those circumstances. Would check all the boxes and put another team in the West, that would be a slam dunk for the league.

 

[PCSPounder]

I don't understand the bold sentence at all...

I think the sentence is a bit confused. But I have a sense of where this is going. Bundesliga doesn't have a salary cap per se, but unlike England, teams are roundly punished for spending over their revenues. England has become a handful of North American owners trying to not spend too much and a bunch of oil magnate-funded teams who don't know when to stop. There's some others in the middle, I'm sure.

Where I say "confused"... 1.Bundesliga might have, on average, larger stadiums and relatively LESSER prices (compared to England). I need to get the current capacities of EPL stadia, but I know Borussia Dortmund's stadium is bigger than any EPL stadium, and while there are 3 (or maybe 4) EPL stadia bigger than 50,000 hosting Premier League games, half of the Bundesliga's 18 teams have stadia that large.

 

[Cacciaguida]

Assuming Saskatoon had the population base and an arena venue, absolutely. It wouldn't even be a question in my mind that Saskatoon would have a team tomorrow under those circumstances. Would check all the boxes and put another team in the West, that would be a slam dunk for the league.

they'd still need an owner and corporate support. which Saskatoon lacks to put it nicely.

 

[GuelphStormer]

I think that Bettman and Daly were contextualizing "weak and slow sales" as being a matter of weeks or months, though.

It's all relative. Had Winnipeg only sold out its season tickets in two weeks, that would have been seen as a failure in that context. So the pace Vegas is on, for their context, is most likely exceeding even the most optimistic estimates so far.

I understand that, and I dont disagree. but there are of course absolutes thresholds. i certainly dont know what they are, and only bettman and foley know what is "good enough".

let's look at it this way ... in absolute terms ... if it takes a guy three weeks to decide if he wants to put down $150 deposit on this, how likely is that guy to renew his plan when it expires? a lot less likely than the guy who put down his deposit right away, I would suggest.

there are two metrics at work here: numbers and intensity. numbers are more immediate and reflected in how many sell (by definition). but intensity is more long-term and is reflective of how strongly held that interest is and how likely it would be to continue into the future. in other words, these folks are paying a lot more attention to things well beyond how many tickets sell, they are closely watching which price tiers are selling, and how fast. the faster they sell, the more intense the support for the team. so, speed does indeed matter, and it is perfectly legitimate to compare drives in different markets.

but yes, i have no idea what is "good enough".

 

[The Feckless Puck]

let's look at it this way ... in absolute terms ... if it takes a guy three weeks to decide if he wants to put down $150 deposit on this, how likely is that guy to renew his plan when it expires? a lot less likely than the guy who put down his deposit right away, I would suggest.

That's true, but I don't think that's the equivalency we're looking at here.

A better comparison would be to think of a car dealership. One buyer knows what model he wants, what price he'll haggle to, what incentives he'll get, etc. His sale will take a lot shorter time than it would for someone who walks on the lot knowing he wants a car but little else. In the end, though, they both drive off the lot in a car, and if the car is any good they'll both be happy with it and shop at that dealership again.

I think the bottom line that you and I both agree on is that a) Vegas will never be mistaken for Winnipeg/QC in terms of demand for NHL hockey, but b) their progress in their ticket drive is happening faster than we thought it would.

 

[stchamp98]

they'd still need an owner and corporate support. which Saskatoon lacks to put it nicely.

Very true, though if the population base was where it needs to be to be considered for a franchise the corporate pool would likely follow as a direct result, at least it would to a large extent. As a city of around 250K it's obviously not in the discussion.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Very true, though if the population base was where it needs to be to be considered for a franchise the corporate pool would likely follow as a direct result, at least it would to a large extent. As a city of around 250K it's obviously not in the discussion.

Yep. There are only two population centers in Canada left that would really qualify for an NHL team based on population and those are QC and Hamilton.

 

[Braun]

There is. It's because a certain section of fans feel entitled to the game when they are not.

I don't see how it is entitlement to want an NHL team in your city. A team which would be in a proven market, with money on the table and a brand new infrastructure. That isn't entitlement, it is facts.

 

[Braun]

Yes and no. It won't help the NHL get their big US television deal they've been striving for, for a long time. Las Vegas presents the possibility for more growth of the game than Quebec does at the moment in the NHL's eyes.

Maybe you are right but maybe it won't work out no? I mean it is by no means necessary a sure bet. Quebec is.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't see how it is entitlement to want an NHL team in your city. A team which would be in a proven market, with money on the table and a brand new infrastructure. That isn't entitlement, it is facts.

It's entitlement when you feel like you deserve it and/or then project to others that they don't deserve it...especially when the item in question is a privilege.

 

[Canucks LB]

FOX5 Las Vegas ‏@FOX5Vegas 22m22 minutes ago

Vegas *really* wants hockey: @LVWantsHockey halfway to 10K-season ticket goal in just 2 days http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/28094752/las-vegas-nhl-season-ticket-drive-halfway-to-goal … #VegasWantsHockey

5000+ Season tickets sold already in just two days for a american market is impressive

Yeah, this is happening.

 

[Braun]

It's entitlement when you feel like you deserve it and/or then project to others that they don't deserve it...especially when the item in question is a privilege.

I'll concede that Vegas may have potential but in no way, to me, is it logical to expand in Vegas before 2 or 3 other markets that have a more proven potential. I don't know many priviliges that you need to pay for to enjoy. It is a privilege for a professional team to have a strong feeling. Abuse that and it's gone.

 

[Braun]

5000+ Season tickets sold already in just two days for a american market is impressive

Yeah, this is happening.

As comparison, Montreal had two MLB pre-season games last year, 96000 total attended both games. Does that make Montreal the best city for an MLB team? No. Because it was a happening and if ever there was a team that relocated/expanded to Montreal people would lose interest as soon as the team struggled on the field. I fear this is what will happen in Vegas. At first, sure, it will be fine. What happens after the first honeymoon year though, watch out.

 

[stchamp98]

I don't see how it is entitlement to want an NHL team in your city. A team which would be in a proven market, with money on the table and a brand new infrastructure. That isn't entitlement, it is facts.

QC definitely checks all of the boxes (So to speak) and everything you've mentioned, factually I must note, makes the city a very strong candidate for an NHL franchise. The problem with the way you seem to be approaching it and the reason the word entitlement is being used by others is that you don't seem to want to be a candidate. You want to bypass the process and just have the election handed to you. That, by pure definition, is a sense of entitlement.

Luckily, this does not seem to be how the powers at be in QC are approaching things and as such I fully support their bid for a team. I think it would be very advantageous for the league to expand to QC alongside Vegas, kinda hedge the bet in way. I don't know how that will work conference wise (Is that realignment agreement up after this season or did I read that wrong?) but business wise, I think that's a pretty smart move.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'll concede that Vegas may have potential but in no way, to me, is it logical to expand in Vegas before 2 or 3 other markets that have a more proven potential. I don't know many priviliges that you need to pay for to enjoy. It is a privilege for a professional team to have a strong feeling. Abuse that and it's gone.

This doesn't make sense. All forms of entertainment are a privilege. They are not a right just because you pay for a ticket. And considering the conversation is about putting a team in a place there currently isn't, there is no strong feeling to abuse.

 

[TheLegend]

au contraire, mon ami. it means everything.

it speaks directly to the gate market strength of the two cities. that vegas is taking longer to sell fewer ticket deposits CLEARLY demonstrates the relative strength of that market ... and here's where it becomes even more important ... it also shows the potential strength of market viability.

now, does it mean that hockey in vegas will not work? no. does it mean it will work? no. what it does mean is, the longer it takes to sell all deposits, the weaker the market looks, whether that market is vegas, or winnipeg, or even the moon.

you can rest assured that all those in decision-making positions here are interested not only in whether the deposits will sell, but how many and how long. that's market viability study 101.

Fruit salad.

People want to compare a market that had an NHL team once and moved away, to one that has never had one.

I agree with much of what your saying GS in that the NHL is going to measure how this drive goes. But we both know that isn't real reason why people are dragging Winnipeg's STH drive into this discussion.

 

[Braun]

This doesn't make sense. All forms of entertainment are a privilege. They are not a right just because you pay for a ticket. And considering the conversation is about putting a team in a place there currently isn't, there is no strong feeling to abuse.

So it is my privilege to give money to a professional sports team? Ok. Man, I am soooooo privileged.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So it is my privilege to give money to a professional sports team? Ok. Man, I am soooooo privileged.

Um...yes. It's a two-way street. It's not every place that can afford a professional hockey team. It's not every person that can afford to go to a hockey game.

 

[tp71]

Maybe you are right but maybe it won't work out no? I mean it is by no means necessary a sure bet. Quebec is.

How can you know if it will work out if you don't try?

 

[CrypTic]

I'll concede that Vegas may have potential but in no way, to me, is it logical to expand in Vegas before 2 or 3 other markets that have a more proven potential.

So what? Just bc you don't see the logic does not mean that others don't. You seem to believe that others should have the same priorities as you do.

I don't know many priviliges that you need to pay for to enjoy. It is a privilege for a professional team to have a strong feeling. Abuse that and it's gone.

You have to pay for many, maybe most, privileges. It's a privilege to drive on good roads, to have a good mass transit system, to live in a nice house, to have good food. People pay for all those things. Entertainment, including sports, is a luxury and a privilege.

E.g, if Hasso Plattner decides to move the Sharks because of the stupid broadcast contract that he (as a member of the previous ownership group) signed, there is nothing that I can do about that. I wouldn't have done anything wrong. I've supported the Sharks, encouraged others to do so, etc. I thought the contract was bad at the time they signed it (bc of the long term). But I don't own the team. If he actually moves the team to a new broadcast market, as he has threatened to do, that's business. (Note: I don't think he will but I have no control over that and I'm not going to argue that the Bay Area deserves the Sharks more than a new area does. It's a business decision.)

I'm glad to see that ticket sales are going well in LV.

 

[Montrealer]

This is an impressive level of response considering they're selling season ticket deposits for a team that doesn't exist yet and isn't even guaranteed to ever exist.

This is apples-to-oranges to the Winnipeg drive where there was a specific team that was going to move there if they sold the tickets. I think you'd see a much quicker sale in those circumstances in Vegas (though still not as quick as Winnipeg's minutes, granted).

 

[GindyDraws]

I don't understand the bold sentence at all...

The majority of Bundesliga clubs (namely 1 and 2) play in 15,000 to 20,000 seat venues and employ lower prices for fans, coupled with a competitive product geared towards the demographic of Germany. Those that have massive venues are due to a massive audience.

When MLS started 20 years ago, the idea was to focus on the Premier League with teams playing in NFL stadiums and also Americanizing the rules and sport. This didn't work well, and resulted in losses, not to mention the folding of Tampa Bay and Miami. Eventually, they went back to international rules, but also saw clubs building smaller venues, have more European club names, and allowing for the fanbases to grow organically as opposed to being crammed down the collective throats of American sports fans. I mean, the league now has 20 teams, as well as two confirmed expansion clubs in Atlanta & Los Angeles Football Club (a reboot of the abomination known as Chivas USA).

That's what I meant.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Luckily, this does not seem to be how the powers at be in QC are approaching things and as such I fully support their bid for a team. I think it would be very advantageous for the league to expand to QC alongside Vegas, kinda hedge the bet in way. I don't know how that will work conference wise (Is that realignment agreement up after this season or did I read that wrong?) but business wise, I think that's a pretty smart move.

I think the way QC is going about their business is indeed smart, like TNSE was. That positions them well for any contingencies.

I unfortunately also think that QC is not being considered for this round of expansion - I believe the NHL tipped their hand about that back when they realigned the divisions and conferences.

Having said that, I think QC is definitely third on the NHL's wish list (sorry Hamilton fans, but the politics and logistics there are gonna be a nightmare if they ever decide to go for it). If Seattle falls through I could see the league figure out a plan B that allows a Quebec City expansion.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think the way QC is going about their business is indeed smart, like TNSE was. That positions them well for any contingencies.

I unfortunately also think that QC is not even being considered for this round of expansion - I believe the NHL tipped their hand about that back when they realigned the divisions and conferences.

Having said that, I think QC is definitely third on the NHL's wish list (sorry Hamilton fans, but the politics and logistics there are gonna be a nightmare if they ever decide to go for it). If Seattle falls through I could definitely see the league figure out a plan B that allows a Quebec City expansion.

I think QC is where they will go if Florida or Carolina or New Jersey or any other Eastern Conference team somehow falls apart and has to relocate. I don't see that happening unlike most but I think that's the league's contingency plan for that set of teams.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

The majority of Bundesliga clubs (namely 1 and 2) play in 15,000 to 20,000 seat venues and employ lower prices for fans, coupled with a competitive product geared towards the demographic of Germany. Those that have massive venues are due to a massive audience.

When MLS started 20 years ago, the idea was to focus on the Premier League with teams playing in NFL stadiums and also Americanizing the rules and sport. This didn't work well, and resulted in losses, not to mention the folding of Tampa Bay and Miami. Eventually, they went back to international rules, but also saw clubs building smaller venues, have more European club names, and allowing for the fanbases to grow organically as opposed to being crammed down the collective throats of American sports fans. I mean, the league now has 20 teams, as well as two confirmed expansion clubs in Atlanta & Los Angeles Football Club (a reboot of the abomination known as Chivas USA).

That's what I meant.

There's only 2 teams in the Bundesliga with stadiums below 25,000

Most of the teams play in massive stadiums, many far bigger than the average PL ground. You're making the 3rd best league in the world out to be a minor league.